Mark Blumenthal | September 25, 2008
Topics: Status Update
With a very busy day ahead, I'm doing this update early today. We logged another 15 statewide polls yesterday after my noon update, including three new surveys in the crucial battleground state of Colorado, two in Pennsylvania, and one each in two states on the margins of competitiveness, West Virginia and Montana.
A new CNN/Time survey in Montana -- only the seventh there this year and the third this month -- gives John McCain an 11-point lead (54% to 43%). Our regression trend lines are especially sensitive where polls are sparse, so this one new survey doubles McCain's lead to a nearly five-point advantage (50.6% to 45.7%). That margin shifts Montana from toss-up to lean McCain, adding three electoral votes to McCain's total on our map.
News for Barack Obama was better in Colorado where three new surveys all have him leading by more than our previous trend estimate. At noon yesterday, our trend estimate gave Obama a 2.7% lead in Colorado, but new polls by CNN/Time, InsiderAdvantage and Rasmussen Reports had him ahead by more than that. The three polls bumped Obama's Colorado lead on our trend estimate up a full percentage point, he now leads 49.3% to 45.6%, which remains just barely in the toss-up category.
Below I am adding what will hopefully become a regular feature of these updates, an up-to-date version of Charles Franklin's roll-up chart of trends all states and in the states we are currently classifying as toss-up or favoring one candidate or the other (see his 9/15 post for more explanation). All four categories show that the Obama September rebound has now more than eliminated the post convention bounce for the McCain-Palin ticket.