Pollster.com

Only 8 down! I'm not saying Obama will win MS, esp. with McCain at 53, but it's something that he's only down 8.

time to start coloring most of those red states pink.

Wow, stunningly terrible news in the senate race...

Dow 900!
Obama exposed.
This combination is creating the perfect storm....McCain 2008

**BREAKING NEWS*** NV NOW BLUE ON THE POLLSTER.COM MAP!

oh. I was thinking this was Missouri, and went:uggg.

Mississipi at -8? hahaha poor McCain.

@rdw4potus
"Wow, stunningly terrible news in the senate race..."

Are we that greedy? ;)

YES!

@ scottkj

Yet another moronic comment...just as US consumer (read: voters) confidence falls to a record low.

Good call!

"Obama exposed"

what, did he take his clothes off in public or something?

eh musgrove is a blue dog anyways and the presidential poll is the same as last month.

Those tying the Dow improvement to a "surging" McCain clearly have no idea how the market works. Please, please take an economic class!

Folks. Mark my words.
Yesterday was the beginning of the end for Obama. America is on the the Obama gimmick.
The dow up 900 is not good for Obama either.

McCain 2008!

There is a SIMPLE explanation for the McCain strategy in PA and it makes more sense than "internal" polling when ALL other polls show a min. lead of 7 for Obama in PA up to 15. Internals are internals, they wouldn't be THIS far off from externals.

Simple.

McCain had to pick a state to APPEAR to be playing in. Can you imagine him spending the next week with the news centered on how he is DEFENDING 8+ deep red states? They decided to make a fake play for PA. They know it won't shift but they HAVE TO HOLD THEIR BASE and hope for a Miracle in those red states.

There was an article on this last week and it makes the MOST sense.

OBAMA SURGE!

Pity re. musgrove...

60 is doubtful...

You know I've been thinking that a state like MS SHOULD be closer...I mean, isn't the AA population like 33%?

Just a quick calculation: Assuming 33% of voters in MS were AA, and Obama won 95% to 5% for McCain among them, he would only need 27.5% of the non-AA vote to win the state.

Now I know MS is pretty conservative/redneck/racist kinda place, but is it really THAT bad!?!

scottkj is that a dead cat i just saw bounce?

are scottkj and boomshak the same person?

@scottkj

Ok, am I going to take you seriously for a second here. If you TRULY believe that...go to Intrade, and put ALL of your money into McCain. I believe it is at 12.5 right now. You will make a killing if you are right (which you seem to pretty confident of).

So put your money where your mouth is, or, shut the hell up.

We'll be waiting with baited anticipation at how many options you bought, and at what price.

You will all be so disappointed November 4th when you realize the MSM had tricked you that Obama had the election clinched.

McCain will win.

Simple reason, McCain=Americanism Obama=Communism

American's are not stupid and will not elect the most liberal, most socialist candidate ever.

OK, if you think the DOW up 900 helps McCain, you're an idiot. It'll most likely tank tomorrow again, and I'll be the first to admit that probably won't hurt McCain any more than just being McCain does.

@Guailo

60 has always been a dream. Basically now the D's would need to pickup the KY and GA Senate seats to get there. Those are both leaning R right now and that is a pretty tough call.

On the other hand they are probably going to pickup NC, MN, AK, OR, NH,CO, NM, and VA. If they can get lucky then they've got a mandate. If not hey they still dominate the Senate with 58 seats. My bet is that either way the strenght of the Republican party is waning and you are going to see a lot more cooperation by moderate Republicans that you have in the last 8 years.

Nobody wants to be on the wrong side of history.

Actually, Ras apparently had this at 52-44 almost a month ago, so no real change.

Of course, since, by a significant margin, most voters now believe Obama will win the election, maybe Dow is getting that confidence too . . . :-)

scottkj based on what DATA? You know, world facts?:) Please provide. Idiot.

60 isn't that important. It was basically bragging rights.
If we are less than 60, then it will just make booting Lieberman that much easier.

I bought InTrade McCain shares. 100 to be exact.

Isn't it nice to have someone in here who disagrees with you liberals. Otherwise, it's just a bunch of people posting "pat yourself on the back" posts.

Realistically this election will be close but McCain will win. He is more convervative/centrist and obama is liberal/marxist. It's that simple folks.

HAH i thought this was MO for a second there.

interesting that Obama is outpolling Musgrove...suggests that Wicker may have succeeded in peeling off some of the AA vote with his ads targeting the black community attacking Musgrove for distancing himself from Obama and taking the black vote for granted

Looks like Wicker will hold on...eyes on McConnell and Chambliss...how much does it say that we could well wake up Nov 5 to new Dem senators in Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Georgia?

Az. within MOE for Obama, McCain going down in AZ!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cronkite/Eight Poll: McCain Could Lose Arizona
A new Cronkite/Eight Poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama by just two points, 46% to 44%.

Said poll director Bruce Merrill: "Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals. Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen. Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day."

These results are similar to two polls released yesterday that also showed a tight race in McCain's home state.

scottkj:

Simple reason, McCain=Americanism Obama=Communism

scottkj=McCarthy

I've lived in Ohio for 12 years now but I'm from Mississippi. Musgrove is a great guy and I wish his numbers were better. As for the poster who thought 27.5% of the white vote should be easy for Democrats to get - think again. I don't have the figures at hand but I think Mississippi went roughly 20% white for democrat in 2004. It's truly a dark and evil place and I'm glad to be living in a state where my vote might actually make a difference.

@laguna_b

Do you have the link for that?

McCain surge!!! (down the toilet)

Arizona is a Marxist Anti-American state.....we are going to collectivize the cactus when we win! Whe will use 1000% taxation of Alaskans and Texans to pay for it!

LATimes polls from Florida and Ohio due out at 5 Eastern...tease on their website says both states are tilting in the same direction...anyone care to bet which direction that is?ha

You all seiously can't handle someone in here with an opion opposite of you "Obama Sheep."

You are all drinking the Kool-Aid, unfortunately Jim Jones has poisened it with euphoria and outrageous expectations that Obama will win, and in a LANDSLIDE.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/28/cronkiteeight_poll_mccain_could_lose_arizona.html

We were going to natinalize the banks but Comrade Bush beat us to it!

scottkj yep you are right idiot. Everyone is lying to Pollsters in RECORD #'s. It will b e the biggest polling colapse in 100 years. Yep!:)

If they got to 59 could they promise Hagel a committee chairmanship or something else to switch? Would he go for it? Would it be worth it?

With NV in the blue now.. do you realize that Obama can lose EVERY toss up state AND PA AND VA and STILL WIN!! Ouch..

The vitriol coming from Scottkj and Boomshak is astonishing! It speaks volumes about the maturity levels of Republicans.

@ scottkj

Good for you. See if your $1000 investment pays off in a week.

In the meantime, do you even know what it means to be a marxist?

I love it how the conservative right just throws around the terms socialist and marxist to scare people. I would guess that the vast majority of the McCain-voting population could not even provide a brief expalanation of what it means to be a marxist or a pure socialist.

How someone could label Obama a marxist is just dumbfounding, and clearly shows you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about...

"Now I know MS is pretty conservative/redneck/racist kinda place, but is it really THAT bad!?!"

I'd chalk it up to redneck/conservative. Kerry won 14% of the white vote in MS in 2004. Obama is probably outperforming Kerry among white voters, but not by enough to flip the state.

Sorry.. meant OH instead of VA.

scottkj I can't believe ARG, IDB, and Rasmussen are lying to us too! INCREDIBLE! Thanks for your insight. Powerful!

well u haven't bought enough....cause he's at 12.5

@scottkj

I would be buying out of the money McCain puts right now if I were you!

Rasmussen numbers

Nevada: Obama +4
Pennsylvania: Obama +7
Arkansas: McCain +10

National polls tightening.
Take out those BS polls that inflate RCP average and it's a dead heat.

Polls after yesterday's Obama video release will continue to tilt toward John McCain and state polls will follow.

It's November 4th that counts!

The AZ polling doesn't really suprise me. This state is full of people from MN, MI, WI and other Democratic strongholds. They (myself included) have voted for McCain in the past because he was pretty moderate in his politics.

Now that he's veered hard right over the rail and into the lunatic fringe I'm going to be that a lot of his support has dried up down here. AZ doesn't particularly care for zealotry and idealogues.

McCain is circling the bowl if he is defending here.

MichaelJason,

Careful with the generalizations. Not all of us are immature and ill-informed.

Anyone else know of an Obama video release? Sounds like the Birth Certificate story to me:) Funny how NO ONE covered it!

arizona being so close in recent polls im guessing has to do with the state of the economy there.

What video release? My God, you would think this was breaking news or something.

Cronkite/Eight Poll AZ

M: 46
O: 44

McCain Could Lose Arizona

A new Cronkite/Eight Poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama by just two points, 46% to 44%.

Said poll director Bruce Merrill: "Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals. Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen. Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day."

These results are similar to two polls released yesterday that also showed a tight race in McCain's home state.

@McCAIN Supporters

WHAT IS YOUR PATH TO 200 LET ALONE 270? OBAMA IS CLOSING IN AZ OF ALL PLACES, GA, MS, AND MONTANA! WHY IS THERE INFIGHTING GOING ON WITHIN YOUR CANDIDATE CAMP? BECAUSE HE LOSING!!!!! HE IS A BOB DOLE ALL OVER AGAIN!!! LANDSLIDE ALERT....

I believe Phoenix housing values have fallen the most out of anywhere in the US...tightening polls are probably responding to that...

Media will lose all credibility on November 4th for ignoring all of Obama's misgivings and reporting that Obama will win election.

unlike most of the republicans in the midwest and places like idaho, utah, Wyoming, etc who are true conservatives and social conservatives, Republicans down south are mostly racists.

scottkj

Can we have a real discussion here instead of talking about BS polls and buzz words like communism? Only a person who is lacking confidence posts this cheerleader crap.

@Nhoj

Yeah the economy sucks. Most of it was the housing boom and that is pretty much dried up. Now all we've got left is god forsaken desert.

Oh yeah and tons of retirees from the great white north (you know communist country).

@scottkj

ke out those BS polls that inflate RCP average and it's a dead heat.

Your math skills are a bit weak. EVERY poll has Obama ahead so you have to eliminate ALL of them to get to a dead heat....ok, that makes sense...is this really Sarah online?

.......
If they got to 59 could they promise Hagel a committee chairmanship or something else to switch? Would he go for it? Would it be worth it?

Hagel is retiring last I heard...

@NW Patrick:
"Anyone else know of an Obama video release? Sounds like the Birth Certificate story to me:) Funny how NO ONE covered it!"

maybe it was the supposed video of Sen. Obama's Kenyan grandmother or something. The rumor was that she said Barack was born in Kenya. It was pushed by boom a few days ago I think. Like all of his rants, it never materialized.

I don't know if that's what you're refering to though.

So for PA there are no more undecided voters. 53-46 and if 1% goes to third candidates. This should not be surprised as both camps campaigned there for weeks now and all those who needed to make a choice already have.
McCain is still there hoping for a miracle as PA has no early voting.

scottkj you s hould get some financial aid and get yourself an edumucation!

Simple Path:

Ohio
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Virginia
Nevada
Pennsylvania

And, yes, I have bought intrade shares on all.

This is proof that African-Americans can make a difference in elections. Look out Wicker!

scottkj:

Clear this up for me, is Obama a socialist, a marxist or a communist? And could you tell me why, specifically what policies he supports that lead you to believe so?

Thanks.

"the most liberal, most socialist candidate ever"

When the hyperbole is that bad, you know there's desperation in air

The Obama video release is referring to a video of a going-away party for a pro-Palestinian professor at U of Chicago, Rashid Khalidi.

I think it's on YouTube, and it was described in an LA Times article a few months back -- http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obamamideast10apr10,0,1780231,full.story -- and there were apparently some anti-Israeli things said at the party but not by Obama.

It's just more guilt by association type stuff they've been trying to stick to Obama.

Ohio - Obama ahead by 5 on average.
Florida - Obama up by 2 on average.
Missouri - Obama up by 1 on average
North Carolina - Obama up by 1 on average.
Virginia - Obama up 7 on average.
Nevada - Obama up 5 on average.
Pennsylvania - Obama up 9 on average.

Intelligent Scott!:)

BobbyS:

That was my calculation you're referring to. Thanks for the perspective on MS. Sheeh..it's really THAT nasty down there? Well, glad you've escaped it! lol

This is proof that African-Americans can make a difference in elections. Look out Wicker!

LA Times is holding a video of Obama at a pro-Palistinian Khalid's gathering.

Why are they affraid to release? Because it will hurt their candidate Obama.

BobbyS:

That was my calculation you're referring to. Thanks for the perspective on MS. Sheeh..it's really THAT nasty down there? Well, glad you've escaped it! lol

The video is about Obama (when he was a professor) attending a party held by another professor in Chicago that has some pro-palestin view (an i think anti-isreali views). The professor is actually now here in Columbia. it is really stupid stuff and pushing this make no sense (it is on fight the smears anyway)

I guess the story they wnat to start now is OBAMA knows some guy that hates isreal so = Obama hates isreal.

@ NW Patrick

Don't know about a video but it looks like the Vera Baker story is going to break. To me, this is nonsense. Do we really care about Obama's private life? I think most americans are sick of this type of thing. On the other hand did a 30 yr old DUI matter in 2000? Yet the dems released it at the end of the race and it affected the outcome. I guess all is fair in love and was and just plain dirty in politics.

A Ras poll having Obama +7 in PA is VERY strong for Obama. Remember the two other polls from that state today: O +9 and +12.

Eventually the word "liberal" as a negative term will be worn out and peole will start equating it to freedom, justice and equality again...making "conservative" sound as backward looking as it did in 64 when Goldwater carried a far higher standard for it than the thugs today.

Another VA poll (from Roanoke College) with a substantial Obama lead...

O: 48
M: 39

VA Poll

Good job on your path to 270... only 2 of the seven states you listed have any chance of going to McCain.

Here is the link to the LA Times story from April.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obamamideast10apr10,0,1780231,full.story

"LA Times is holding a video of Obama at a pro-Palistinian Khalid's gathering.

Why are they affraid to release? Because it will hurt their candidate Obama. "

Is this Matt Drudge's latest lie? What's next, a McCain volunteer gets attacked by a black guy that carves a "B" in her face?

@scottkj,

If you want to hold on to what is past, you will be in suffering..... Time passed, your so-called real America is only existing in your beautiful memory.

Look America as it is of now.

Sorry, typo, 3 of the 7 have a chance.

Scott, don't bet against the market....I have lost plenty that way....

@ Patrick.

1 more week to go, most inside MOE and McCain surging in national polls. O+4 Zogby, O+2 CNN State polls lag and republicans always out vote the polling numbers. See previous years' polling info.

Ohio - Obama ahead by 5 on average. (
Florida - Obama up by 2 on average. (MOE)
Missouri - Obama up by 1 on average (MOE)
North Carolina - Obama up by 1 on average. (MOE and republican)
Virginia - Obama up 7 on average. (MOE with most)
Nevada - Obama up 5 on average. (MOE most and republican state)
Pennsylvania - Obama up 9 on average. (longer shot but with surging McCain may win)

Scottkj are you not concerned about McCain's ties to terrorists? How about call his wife a C U N T? Doesn't phase you does it?

I think this is the link to the supposedly scandalous (and not public) YouTube video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0

OK, it's officially hopeless. scottkj apparently subscribes to the boomshak misinformation on what MOE means.

blah blah...video..blah..blah

scottkj=boomshak?

Yeah, the dow surging in the face of overwhelming odds that Obama will be elected President doesn't exactly give the GOP much in the way of arguing that the stock market was going down because Obama is winning.

scottkj and Boom are TEXTBOOK neo-cons. I've heard EVERY SINGLE talking point from my aunt in California. She's ****ING CRAZY!

Unfortunately for you scottkj, if you look over at RCP, you'll notice that Obama has more support today than he has the whole race. He's at 50.6% right now, the highest he's ever captured, and it's been sustained for 2 days.

On the other hand, McCain's highest average was 48.3, sustained for a single day.

Every poll that comes out shows that more people have made up their mind, and less are paying attention. It's been a long race, and many people are sick of hearing about it. The "socialist" attacks have been running for WEEKS now. WEEKS!! It just plain is not working.

McCain will probably regain some of the support he lost... and the race will end at something like 51% to 48%, Obama winning. I'm betting on 330 or so EVs for Obama.

sherman good point! LOL I thought the stock market hated Obama. Actually in history the markets LOVE democrats. Do I need to whip out my Forbes article? I WILL!

Nevada:

Obama 50
McCain 40

http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/20580.html#anchor32718

Disco Stu,

Actually, I love Mississippi - really. It's just that the people really do live in some sort of 1950's sort of past where you never saw African Americans on television. I grew up in Mississippi in the 60's so I can tell you things are way better now but they have quite a way yet to go.

Musgrove was governer for one term so it's not completely hopeless for Democrats there. I just don't think Musgrove is going to close the gap this year.

Can't wait until November 5th when we finally get our county back from the incompetent idiots on the right.

Just 7 more days until the rebirth of American greatness.

oo there is a video of Sen. Obama at a party for someone who is an advocate of the Palestinians. And that is bad, why?
Are Palestinians terrorists? is that the innuendo here? I'm not sure this is gonna be all that important to most of the public.
Maybe this is McCain's sad attempt to take Florida by scaring the Jewish population there.

I remember when John McCain was a respectable and honorable man. He's really fallen.

Back to discussing polls and MS...interesting questions and results here. I recall an earlier poll from MS (maybe it was GA) having a peculiarly large number of "undecided" AAs and talk of a "reverse Bradley effect". Look at how large the numbers are for folks concerned about illegal election activities. This can't all be from McCain's lies about ACORN. If you were AA in MS, perhaps you'd feel a bit intimidated after the '00 and '04 elections, and perhaps there really is a reverse Bradley effect - and perhaps Obama can pull this one out if AAs vote in huge numbers. Maybe O gets within 6pts in pre-election polls and MS goes blue?????

So this is interesting. RCP has dropped an average of 0.5% per day over the last couple of days. If this somehow WAS a surge for McCain, he would end up tied by..... wait for it... November 11th. That's right, IF this pace could keep up, which it can't, McCain could draw even only ONE FULL WEEK after the election.

Don't get worked up about the stubborn Republicans, folks. I want to encourage them to get their hopes up if anything.

Think about it this way. It's way more fun to watch a balloon pop than to watch it slowly deflate over a period of days. In the same way, it will be much more fun to see the Republicans' hopes crushed mercilessly all at once when Bush is denied reelection on November 4.

So yup, it looks like Obama is toast. He doesn't have a chance. It looks like we're stuck with another 4 years of the same. Whatever are we going to do?

To go along with probably a zillion other posts with the same basic content: the LA Times/Bloomberg poll has OH as 49-40 Obama, and FL as 50-43 Obama. Likely voters, it looks like.

The RCP average dropped because we had SEVERAL +10 Obama polls drop from the average. YAWN. It's over.

MS, a state Bush won by 20 (04) and 17 (00) points. McShame runs about 12% lower than Bush04.
L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E
Too bad for Musgrove.
Start looking at 60 Senate blue seats!

people put too much relevance on national polls. These polls are fairly inaccurate and subject to alot of "noise" because the sample is homogenous and the average state sample is 40 at best.

What I did was take the state weights a fraction ofthe total turnout in the 2004 election (CA 10.16%, Florida 6.26%......Wyoming 0.20%, DC 0.19%) and apply either RCP Avg. or 538 trend adjusted avg.

That way you have a poll of polls that covers a avg sample of at least 30,000 (most state polls are over 600)

Of course the weights from 2004 have shifted slightly and these polls are not done on the same day.

in any event using yesterday's 538 TA average I got

Obama 50.6%
McCain 43.6%

I think more or less that is where the average of all the national tracking polls are at.

Hahahahahaha

Michele Bachmann has been shilling for a convicted felon to get a pardon because he donated to her campaign.

Bachmann is a tool!!!

I guess when it rains it pours. One GOP shipwreck after another.

Agony thy name is GOP

anyone know when the daily abc tracker gets released?

scott

"You all seiously can't handle someone in here with an opion opposite of you "Obama Sheep."

You are all drinking the Kool-Aid, unfortunately Jim Jones has poisened it with euphoria and outrageous expectations that Obama will win, and in a LANDSLIDE."

Take an English class, man. If I have a seious opion, I must have been poisened.

And you're not in here. You're out there. Way, way out there...

Wait. Are you doing this on your phone during class?

I know we are likely to win this handily as it is...BUT....what a pleasure I would take at seeing a sudden multipoint surge UP for Obama just to drive the Booms and Scotts crazy this next week because I don't think we will get the chance on Nov. 5.

Uh oh! More proof of the McCain SURGE!

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll29-2008oct29,0,7008892.story

Obama up 7 in FL and 9 in OH. uh oh!:)

Palin believes that people walked with dinosaurs on earth 4,000 years ago. She is a "whack-job."

People = Dinosaurs
Palin = Whackj-ob

In her mind, the Flintstones was a documentary.

Wow I can't believe ALL of the Pollster in agreement that OH is just about PUT AWAY. AM I dreaming?:)

@Mike A.

5pm edt. No change from yesterday.

Looks like ABC/WP Poll holding steady at 52-45, its third straight day at that point.

@ Mike A.:

ABC Tracker still shows Obama up 52-45. But in terms of registered voters, he leads 51-42 (up 1 from yesterday).

At Burningman this year I met a guy from Alaska who was a student but pretty apolitical. I had ust gotten news about Palin selected and asked him what he knew. He had met her at some parties and said that she had an excessively high opinion of herself.....that was my first impression, it continues to be proven out.

@NW Patrick

If you are dreaming that means I'm dreaming.

Don't wake me up.

Ipsos/McClatchy National

O: 48
M: 42

McCain +2 from last week. At this rate, he'll be tied by November 18.

Obama leads McCain in Florida and Ohio, poll says
Voters see the economy as the chief issue and Obama as the best man to handle it, according to a Times/Bloomberg poll. In Ohio, Obama leads 49% to 40%; in Florida, 50% to 43%.
By Janet Hook
2:00 PM PDT, October 28, 2008

OH

M 40
O 49

FL

M 43
O 50

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-poll29-2008oct29,0,4659003.story

It's so sad the GOPers think they even have a chance. Look at the map! The red states are literally being eaten by the blue ones.

The states that were yellow two months ago are now dark blue. One month ago? They're now light blue. Some solid red states (now "toss ups") are now polling higher for Obama. And this week? Arizona is faultering...

Obama leads McCain in Florida and Ohio, poll says
Voters see the economy as the chief issue and Obama as the best man to handle it, according to a Times/Bloomberg poll.

In Ohio, Obama leads 49% to 40%;
In Florida, 50% to 43%.
By Janet Hook
2:00 PM PDT, October 28, 2008

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll29-2008oct29,0,7008892.story

Georgia COMING HOME!

InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position Georgia
Sample: 637 registered likely voters
Margin of Error: +/- 3.8%
Conducted Oct 27
President:
McCain: 48%
Obama: 47%
Barr: 1%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 3%
U.S. Senate:
Chambliss: 46%
Martin: 44%
Buckley: 2%
Other: 0%
Undecided: 8%

This surge is tiresome. Another lost day for McCain and great state polling day for Obama. 4 business days to go!

Did you guys see the new GA poll from Insider Advantage? Obama is only down by ONE point (47-48)! This election is beginning to look like 1980.

Is there info on what's been done in OH to prevent the sort of wholesale chicanery that happened in '04? The speaker I heard on my NPR station was more than convincing about the magnitude of the violations, but didn't mention specific reforms that might prevent a recurrence.

L.A. Times just out:
Ohio: Obama 49-McCain 40 +9 O
Florida: Obama 50-MCain 43 +7 O

Hmmmm scottkj...looks GREAT for you boy, eh? If he keeps "surging" like this we may be starting to talk about Oklahoma by the end of the weel!! LOL!

@Basil

This year we ovewhelm the fraud with voters

First thing we do when we gain power is FIX the election process so they can't "fix" the results!

Disastrous day of state polling for McCain. I am trying to think of a single bright spot and am drawing a blank.

Arguably the Ras PA numbers, but with Obama above 53 that's not even very good.

I still don't understand why the ENTIRE NATION doesn't go to mail only ballots. My god its an awesome system. We have it here in OR. To register you have to VERIFY your address. I can take my time, vote, look at all issues, you know, make an informed decision, then drop it in the mail. Seems like a no brainer America!

Speaking of OHIO. I think this is the QUIET story of the past 2 weeks. OH has secretly moved out of tossup into dark blue Obama. Not evening counting the +9 today in Blooms poll check this out!

10/26-27/08 648 LV 45 49 - - - 4 3 - +4D
FOX/Rasmussen 10/26/08 1000 LV 45 49 1 0 0 - 4 - +4D
Reuters/Zogby 10/23-26/08 600 LV 45 50 - - - - 5 - +5D
PPP (D) 10/22-23/08 993 LV 44 51 - - - - 5 - +7D
Politico/InsiderAdvantage 10/22/08 408 LV 42 52 - - - - - - +10D
Strategic Vision (R) 10/20-22/08 1200 LV 48 45 - - - 2 5 - +3R
Big Ten 10/19-22/08 564 LV 41 53 - - - 2 5 - +12D
University of Cincinnati 10/18-22/08 886 LV 46 49 1 2 - 0 3 - +3D
CNN/Time 10/19-21/08 737 LV 46 50 - - - 1 3 - +4D
Zogby (Internet) 10/17-20/08 991 LV 49 47 - - - - 4 - +2R
Quinnipiac 10/16-20/08 1360 LV 38 52 - - - 1 8 - +14D

McCain better take the "Midnight Train to Georgia." He's failing FAST there!

C'mon, now, whoshotsam, isn't that a little harsh? After all, Ras has him down only 4 in NV for that state's five EVs.

"ABC News/Washington Post Tracker"

Even though the race has remained identical among LV's at 52-45 for the last 3 days there are interesting points to note:

1. Obama's support among RV's has stayed constant at 51% but McCain has dropped a point each day - 44, 43, 42.
2. The above happened despite the margin among Democratic and Republican leaning voters decreased - 7, 8, 6.

This election will prove historical. The election in which the DEMS started to reclaim the South. It's amazing looking at some old electoral maps where the West was pure red and almost EVERY SINGLE Southern state was deep blue. We paid the price during the civil rights movement, worth it though...damn worth it. And now we are 1 week away exactly from redemption. I'm very proud to be a DEM.

abc/wapo hasnt posted the numbers for todays poll yet. still on yesterday polling

anyone has a link to today's WASHPOST/ABC tracker?

Obama still up 7. ABCNEWS.COM then click on polls.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=6118357&page=1

Amazing article and SO TRUE.

NEW BLOOMBERG POLL, among likely voters:

Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 40
Florida: Obama 50, McCain 43

All together now...LANDSLIDE.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/politics/

The tracker is below the headline box.

got it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_102808.html

:)

i did the poll date says oct 27

Very small sample, I don't see McCain with any less than 55% in MS. But that being said, notice how the question about which issue is most important to you leads with national security? That would seem to account for the unusually high 27% for national security compared to all other polls nationwide. Still, the more important poll is for the Senate, which indicates Musgrove is toast.

Mike,

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6128758&page=1

*One more link :-)

Yeah, NW Patrick. The consistency of Ohio's numbers are starting to look very much like Virginia's. (Btw, I also consider Oregon my home state, though I now live in WA.)

saywhat90, the ABC/WP poll was TAKEN yesterday, Oct. 27, and compiled and released today, Oct. 28.

Pennsylvania: Obama Leads By Seven

Obama 50%, McCain 46% in Nevada

Obama All Kerry states = 252 + Iowa + NM = 264

to get to 270 only one of
Colorado, Nevada (dormie), VA, OH, FL, NC, MO, IN, GA.

say all those are 50-50 you are talking 1 in 512 chance.

that's like hitting a 9 team parlay on sunday football games..............

scottkj:

On October 13th, the dow went up 936 points - on the next day and the day after, Obama was ahead by an average of 7% points - basically right where he is now?

Care to revise your questionable theory?

I'm a Rasmussen premium member and looking at the internals I see why McCain is staying the course.

He is ahead in independent voters 52-46. However it is the FAVORABLES that is interesting. Independents favorables for McCain 63 Obama 49

However it gets more interesting. The Very Unfavorable for Obama is 39% McCain 3%!

truebljb1,

I hope you come on election night. I bet that McCain doesn't take PA. He hasn't being able to bring Obama below the 50%, after all the campaigning, the money spent, the smears. Does that bolds well for him? I don't think so.

*I don't know if Obama will end up wining the Electoral map, but PA I don't think he can.

@scottkj:

Let's trade scandals on Obama versus McShame:

I will give you Obama "Guilt by association video"

And you give me the "Navy's cover up for McShame on possible homicide by car" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/news-orgs-investigate-pos_n_138449.html

That is a fair trade isn't it????

@Frankie,

Of course Palin believes humans walked with dinosaurs. It's an experience she has every day.

Obama is dropping fast......Here comes Johnny

Dont let up Obama supporters, here is why.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xnk9aqih8o&eurl

3%? The very unfavorable for McCain is probably higher than 30% among his family members yet you expect us to believe it is 3% among indeps?

fail.

Truebljb1,

While I agree that any thoughts of Obama crushing McCain by double digits in PA are folly. I also would argue that Obama is polling better than Kerry did in the Philly suburbs and that is where the state is won. I think McCain is off his rocker to bet the farm on a state that hasn't gone to the GOP in 20 years and that Mike (I rivaled Bob Dole for the worst campaign ever run in modern times) Dukakis came within 5 points of winning.

@trueblj1, are you talking about PA in specific? If so, what % are the Independents in the state as per Rasmussen? As far as I know the Indies in that state are very low in numbers (12% or under)

MS looks good in pink.

Of course it would look even better in yellow or light blue.

What if they rig the voting machines to look as if you voted for Obama with the check-mark appearing next to his name, but internally, it is marked as vote for McCain?

I did not say he could win Pennsylvania, I just said when you look at the internals you can see some reasons why.

What if they rig the voting machines to look as if you voted for Obama with the check-mark appearing next to his name, but internally, it is marked as vote for McCain?

@trueblj1

McCain is targeting Democrats in PA more than he is Independents. It is one of the few states were Dem support for Obama is soft as he sees it.

Hey, does anyone remember when MO, FL, NC, GA, MT, and ND were all either pink or red and when NM, PA, MI, WI and MN were yellow? I think NV was pink for a little while, too.

It is a matter of logic guys. If McCain is ahead in such way among Independents in PA, how can Obama be at 53%? The only explanation I could find is that Rasmussen has a huge party ID gap between Rep and Dem, benefiting Obama right off the bat, which I don't think it is accurate, or Rasmussen has Obama getting almost 30% of Republicans, which I find hard to believe.

Look at this numbers from Temple Univ.

Temple Univ. 10/20 - 10/26 761 LV 3.6
Obama 50 McCain 41

Democrat
90 Obama
7 McCain

Independent
46 Obama
46 McCain

Republican
13 Obama
84 McCain

Party ID: Dem. 40%, Rep. 34%, Ind. 26%

Obama benefits from a 6% ID gap for the Democrats + gains crossover Republicans.

So, Temple Univ. has Obama tie among Independents and his overall support is at 50%.

------------------------------------

Now, look at Morning call:

Morning Call 10/23 - 10/27 589 LV 3.8
Obama 53 McCain 41

OVERALL
53% Obama
40% McCain

DEMOCRAT
83% Obama
12% McCain

REPUBLICAN
16% Obama
76% McCain

INDEPENDENT
53% Obama
34% McCain

Obama is ahead among Independents and his overall support is at 53%.
------------------------------------

Now, how can you explain that Rasmussen has Obama trailing among Independents but holds an overall support of 53%? Logic, logic, my friends :-)

@ Tom:
"Hey, does anyone remember when MO, FL, NC, GA, MT, and ND were all either pink or red and when NM, PA, MI, WI and MN were yellow? I think NV was pink for a little while, too.""

LOL...this was McCain's plan all along...as he puts it, "We've got Obama just where we want him!”

Guys this is not rocket science. Most things in life are based on simple, common logic. You don't need to hold a math degree to see that something doesn't fit. In law we call it the "reasonable person test." It consists in you asking yourself: Does this sound reasonable? Then keep on going :-)