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MT: McCain 48, Obama 44 (DailyKos-10/28-30)

Topics: PHome

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
10/28-30/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephon Interviews

Montana
McCain 48, Obama 44

 

Comments
bclintonk:

Best news for McCain in a day's worth of polling: looks like he's narrowly favored to hold on to Montana and its 3 electoral votes. Heehee!

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political_junki:

I want more PA pollls :-|
This recent MT, AZ business is nonsense media Hype. Good for news cycles but at the end PA and VA win the election not MT with 3 EVs...

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PJ_FFM:

I think McCain ought to invest into airtime BIG TIME in MT... after all, he could secure 3 ECV... ;->

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PJ_FFM:

And I want either a big win in the lottery or more DC polls... but I won't get either... ;-)

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pbcrunch:

The RNC has actually started pouring money into MT (relatively as I'm sure it's a cheap state to advertise in). I am not entire sure why, though. If Obama wins MT, it's a slaughter, but maybe it's just a pride thing...

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thorfinn:

Every vote counts. Three at the margin could mean win or lose.

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AB:

Obama has some chance to win in Montana. Popular Democratic governor, and two Senators. Statewide representative is a Republican from Billings.
Montana is actually (like say, Colorado or Nevada) very urban. Most of the population is concentrated in the 7 cities of Helena, Missoula, Butte, Billings, Great Falls, Bozeman, and Kalispel. State level politics in Montana is full contact, but the state is not nearly as red as it once was.
The newest Senator (John Tester) is a very down to earth guy, close with the Gov (Brian Schweitzer).

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Brad4Barack:

How many Pennsylvania polls would you like? There've been no fewer than seven the past couple days.

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ctj:

Does anyonr know if there is going to be one more NBC/WSJ poll coming out?

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Brad4Barack:

The final NBC/WSJ poll will be released at 7 a.m. on the Today show Monday morning.

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Boris_Dieter:

Holy Cow! Ken Duberstein, Reagan Chief of Staff endorses Obama! I just saw it with my own eyes. Ken Duberstein?!! Unbelievable. If you just list all of the former Bush I and II and Reagan and Nixon staffers and administration members, you have an amazing list. What does this tell you? Has this ever happened before? I think not. And who is going to tell all of these conservatives that Obama is really not an American, that he's a Moslem, a secret pal of terrorists, and a stealth destroyer of Israel? Don't those foolish conservatives know better?

If the MSM were really accurate and honest about how horrid a choice Palin has been, she'd be sinking even faster, except for that 30% of the population and GOP base that still has faith in the Earth's 7000 year age and in the Evils of Darwin.

Boy what a sad level to which McCain has sunk.

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AB:

Ron Paul is on the ballot for the Constitutional Party. He's probably furious about that; Constitutional Party is centered up in Kalispel, they regularly split really hard right conservatives away from Montana's very hard right Republican party, and in the past they have had the support of skinheads.
2000-3000 votes for Ron Paul in Kalispel could be significant at the statewide level.
I believe Paul tried to have his name removed from the ballot. (I lived in Montana for a few years .... Constitutional Party is not many peoples cup of tea. They're pretty gross.)

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NeutralNick:

Breaking news.....mccain might win a state

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mago:

@P_J:

Hmm, so you think Markos Moulitsas has no realy interest in whether Obama wins AZ and MT, but is just commissioning these polls to stir up media hype? Yyeeeaaahh...I'm sure they're having trouble getting enough site traffic at Daily Kos.

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carl29:

For those worried about the "Bradley Effect," let me show you that with Obama what you see is what you get:

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Pre-election polls: Obama 38.3

Total vote: Obama 36.4 (-1.9)

*Edwards and Richardson also underperformed on election day as well, but has anybody talked about that?

Edward's pre-election polls 18.3% vs. 16.9% actual vote.

Richardson's pre-election polls 5.7% vs. 4.6%


FLORIDA

Pre-election polls: Obama 28.8%

Actual vote: Obama 33.0%


CALIFORNIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 44%

Actual vote: Obama 42.3% (-1.7)


NEW YORK

Pre-election polls: Obama 36.3%

Actual vote: Obama 39.9% (+3.6)


NEW JERSEY

Pre-election polls: Obama 40.6

Actual vote: Obama 44% (+3.4)


MISSOURI

Pre-election polls: Obama 41.8%

Actual vote: Obama 49.2% (+7.4)


MASSACHUSSETS

Pre-election polls: Obama 40.7%

Actual vote: Obama 40.8% (+0.1)


ARIZONA

Pre-election polls: Obama 35.7%

Actual vote: Obama 41.9% (+6.2)


VIRGINIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 55%

Actual vote: Obama 63.6% (+8.6)


MARYLAND

Pre-election polls: Obama 55%

Actual vote: Obama 60% (+5)


WISCONSIN

Pre-election polls: Obama 46.3%

Actual vote: Obama 58.1% (+11.8)


OHIO

Pre-election polls: Obama 43%

Actual vote: Obama 44.1% (+1.1)


TEXAS

Pre-election polls: Obama 45.7%

Actual vote: Obama 47.4% (+1.7)


PENNSYLVANIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 43.4%

Actual vote: Obama 45.4% (+2)


INDIANA

Pre-election polls: Obama 44%

Actual vote: Obama 49.3% (+5.3)


WEST VIRGINIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 24.7%

Actual vote: Obama 25.7% (+1)


OREGON

Pre-election polls: Obama 52.2%

Actual vote: Obama 58.2% (+6)


KENTUCKY

Pre-election polls: Obama 29.4%

Actual vote: Obama 29.9% (+0.5)

--------------------------------------

I purposely excluded places in the South because obviously no one could have anticipated the AA turnout, so I didn't think that it was fair :-)

I hope this chart could help you see that the Bradley Effect, white people lying about being for the black candidate but voting for the white, is just NO-TRUE these days.

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NW Patrick:

mago SEVERAL polls show tightening to Obama in MT and AZ. Nice try though:)

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Robert:

@carl29

Those were internal elections, i assume most registered democrats aren't racists. I for one i'm still a little bit worried about the Bradley effect

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orange24:

Obama up three-tenths of a point on TIPP today - from 4.1 to 4.4

http://www.tipponline.com/

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george:

@carl29

Thanks for the information on the primary votes. It's surprising that this relatively simple data check is not included in all the 'Bradley effect' hype.

Might one caveat/hypothesis be, though, that Democratic primary voters are more truthful with pollsters than are Republicans and independents?

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carl29:

Robert,

First, in more than one state it was open primary. Second, who do you think McCAin is targeting? Those "reagan democrats" the people with race issues, and they didn't lie during the primaries.

If you look around, you will find a recent memo from the McCain campaign, notice that the memo emphasizes on the 50% treshold, why? McCain people know that with Obama what you see is what you get.

That's why I don't think that FL is in play for Obama, although I am NOT discouring anybody from voting for him in FL. However, Obama is not above 50% here, so I have a lot of doubts about it. Same goes to OH.

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Jacob S:

I cranked through some numbers and these are my predictions for the 11 closest states:

Nevada +8.9
Ohio +9.0
North Carolina +3.9
Missouri +3.8
Florida +4.2
North Dakota +4.0*
Indiana +0.2
Georgia -1.4
Montana -3.0
Arizona -6.2
Mississippi -8.9

*I don't trust the ND estimate.

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cinnamonape:

Robert: But why would a Republican or an Independent feel compelled to say that they support an African American...when in fact they don't. They aren't even in the position of defending their jump from their own party.

One would expect the bigger effect to be in the Democrats. The fact that it doesn't appear to occur is interesting.

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carl29:

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!!

Larry Sabato, the election guru:

"Sabato Predicts Virginia Will Vote Democrat"

http://www.nbc29.com/Global/story.asp?S=9274556&nav=menu496_2_1

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RightAsRain:

Yes! Obama needs to keep his eyes on Montana and Arizona!!!! Fill the Phoenix airways with ads!

Meanwhile, PA is teetering and it's going to take OH and VA with it.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@RightAsRain

I don't know if you noticed but he has the money to cover all the states.

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carl29:

The fact that Sabato thinks that Virginia will go for Obama is big, HUGE indeed. He is not only a well-known political science Prof. but he is also a resident of Virginia.

During this election is has being very, very skeptical of Obama's chances in VA; however, he better than anybody can see the reality in his state, from his political expertise + his own experience as a long-time resident of the state. I think this is fantastic :-)

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NW Patrick:

ND confirmed as a TOSS UP!

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:20:04 PM PDT
Research 2000. (10/14-15 results)

McCain (R) 47 (45)
Obama (D) 46 (45)

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Monte from PA:

Wow if this is true then McCsame isn't safe anywhere

Breaking news from CNN: McCain is up by 3 in Utah!!

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montana59801:

I voted yesterday in Montana and it looked really good for obama. 3 or 4 people registered and voted for barack while i was there, long lines, and just the general vibe i was getting looked good. I read somewhere that montana had the most cell phone only users of any state. If that's true this poll has a slight mccain bias. they also have registered many out-of-state students to vote here.

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RightAsRain:

@Pro-America_Anti-America:
Absolutely, Obama's got a mountain of cash. But while he's been all over the map, McCain has focused on PA, and you might have noticed it's down to 4 points.

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NW Patrick:

RightAsRain PA? Really? Obama averages a 9 point lead there. Even with a 5 point lead per polling today THATS A WIN. McCain has 1 business day left to erase a 5 point lead BEST case. GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!:)

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pbcrunch:

McCain has gone all out in PA for the past month. Let's say it started Obama +10 and he's made it +5 or even +4 during that time. McCain simply doesn't have enough days or a GOTV operation to pull out a victory.

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ErnieLynch:

RightAsRain,

the only thing you have to worry about in PA is the weather. And sunny skies are forecast for Tuesday.

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NW Patrick:

RightAsRain I saw 10 points today. Why do you Cherry Pick? The average is still around 9 points.

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carl29:

Guys, McCain doesn't have machenary in PA, the Republican party doesn't control anything. The Gov. is Rendell(D), the Mayor of Philly is Nutter(D), the mayor of Pittsburgh is Ravenstahl(D). It is really hard to carry a state without neither state machinery nor ground game.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@RightAsRain

That same poll had it O+2 last time they released numbers so wouldn't it be teetering towards Obama?

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NW Patrick:

Not only that you can't compare apples to oranges. SEVERAL very recent polls show double digit leads for Obama in PA. 4 is a WORST case scenerio. 4 points still wins, hell 1 wins.

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carl29:

I think that machinery and ground game applies to both candidates. McCain doesn't need to have an impressive ground game in a state like Florida, why? First FL is a pretty reliable Republican state, and second, Republicans control everything here, starting with the Gov. *Remember that Bill Clinton carried FL just once, for re-election. So, if a Democrat wants to play here, he or she has to mount an impressive ground-game to off-set the built-in advantage that Republicans "naturally" have.

I think samething applies for a Republican in a state like PA or MI. I don't think that McCain had the time and the resources to mount the operation he needed to offset Obama's ground game advantage + Obama's money + the Democratic machinery of Rendell/Nutter/Ravenstahl.

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Scribo:

@Robert,

"Those were internal elections, i assume most registered democrats aren't racists. I for one i'm still a little bit worried about the Bradley effect"

The people who weren't going to vote for Obama because of his race are already accounted for in the polls.

Obama was only going to get a minority of non-Dems anyway, and those who weren't going to vote for him for racial reasons have plenty of non-racial reasons to declare themselves against him.

The ones to watch out for are the working class independents and Reagan Dems, but I honestly don't think it's a big factor.

The opposite effect may be in play, though. I think we may well find that plenty of white voters whom we might not have expected to be in play actually voted for Obama when they were alone in the voting booth. They just weren't going to admit it in public. (And they may not even admit it to an exit pollster).

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nmetro:

These results do not show Paul or Barr; which means this race be much more closer or it actually could be an Obama lead. the same thing goes for North Dakota.

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RightAsRain:

If you think the only thing Obama has to worry about in PA is the weather, you've never spent time in Erie. I have. I hate to admit it, but Murtha knows his constituency. He's an idiot for saying it, but he is right. Racism is going to decide the election in OH, PA, and VA. It's a terrible shame and curse on our nation. No one should win that way, but it's still going to happen.

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superknower:

3 EVs. Let him have it.

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