Pollster.com

Montana should turn red on the map.....Obama will not win Montana or either of the Dakota's.

There's the new issue of Ron Paul's name on the ballot, plus we need to see if this spike will last after the Palin novelty fades.

McCain-Palin...Leaps to 20-Point Lead in North Carolina...

RALEIGH (WTVD) -- In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, September 09, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA

NV has already gone red on the pollster map, Montana will follow shortly I suppose. Lot of dark blues going light blue, light blue's going yellow....yellow's going pink and pinks get redder....McCain is on the move.

NC, not NV...sorry I am reading the NV paper :)_

There is simply nothing to Obama.He stands for change but there going to be a change anyway. He's running a crusade and no one has ever run that way and won.He may be Constitutionally qualified to be President but that's where it ends.

forgot the link. NC
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065

That North Carolina poll is awefully suspect considering just yesterday they released results showing that in VA, the vote was unchanged. So we're to believe that in neighboring states, one electorate swings 20% and in the other it doesn't move an inch?? They're call outliers for a reason; sometimes they pop up and fool ya.

However, this Montana poll is definitely news. Obama needs to not give up on the state just yet, but its certainly do or die time for the campaign in a couple of states where they may need to drop some nuclear advertising. I'd say they need to go super hard negative in Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota, or they'll lose. The No Maverick ad is a good start but they've got to go deeper and hit Palin on tax hikes and spending as mayor and governor. She's anything but a fiscal conservative; she'll run up deficits that make GW Bush proud.

The debates may turn the ship around for Obama; the bounce may come down to earth, but for now, the map is changing a bit and some of these light pink states are bleeding red.

Why did McCain get a bounce in MT but not in CO?

A 20% lead is too huge a swing for a single poll to be credible. Especially a SUSA poll. I say we to see if other polls confirm this result.

moose.

Obama did well in Colorado because the Democratic convention was held in Denver... ergo lots of local coverage.

Obama will not regain in Montana. The NRA campaign against him on gun control will keep him from a recovery.

North Carolina is a southern RED state. Not even MSNBC analysts considered that NC was an Obama possibility of late.

@ KipTin

MSNBC's analysis of toss up states is rather lame. There are a dozen sites that do it better; they're far too conservative.

So long as Colorado holds and VA remains tight, Obama still have a clear double path to victory. Ohio and Florida are back doors not likely to open. Obama's trapdoor is MI and less likely PA or WI.

But that's today, at likely the peak of the Palin / McCain bounce. This will wear, just as the bounce Obama got from Berlin wore over time.

IA and NM are likely off the table; MI and PA should come home, WI could be locked back up by the 2nd debate, still leaving VA and CO as the two states where this election is decided.

One thing to keep in mind, those two states are better ground for Obama than OH or FL, both richly organized by the GOP for a decade. Obama has had an even start with VA and CO, on fresh ground, in states trending blue internally.

In the end, MT and ND and GA will be footnotes. I think if this poll is confirmed in the coming weeks by another, then MT may close up shop if debate 1 doesn't close the gap.

As I've said before, and regardless of this being a Rasmussen poll, Montana is off the table for Obama.

Montana is as close to the makeup of Alaska as any state is, and they just love moose hunting hypocrites.

@Hope Reborn:

I never thought I would hear MSNBC is far to conservative....I know its not what you meant, but gave me a quick chuckle.
Guns will shoot down any chance of an Obama win inMontana or the Dakota's.

I found that this finding was interesting from Rasmussen: "Seventy percent (70%) of McCain voters are now voting for him with enthusiasm while 28% are primarily voting against Obama.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Obama voters support their candidate enthusiastically while 18% are primarily voting against McCain."

Hey, I was referencing MSNBC because it is considered to be Obama-friendly and I did not want to be accused of using a GOP-biased analysis.

You forgot that New Hampshire is also a toss-up state that is critical to watch. Georgia was never in play for Obama. Iowa was never in play for McCain.

"This will wear, just as the bounce Obama got from Berlin wore over time."

er, McCain got the bounce from Obama's berlin trip

I don't want to sound too partisan or snarky, but were NC, MT, and the Dakotas really ever in doubt?

Remember when an Obama-Nunn ticket was going to win Georgia, how voter registration drives were going to swing NC, how massive AA turnout would win SC, how Northern VA was going to swing Old Dominion into the Democratic column???

The media, certain cable outlets in particular, were really drinking that balloon juice as the Democratic primaries were finishing and Obama was supposed to run the tables on McCain with 300+ electoral vote victory.

2008 is shaping up to be a repetition of 2004 and 2000 the exception being Colorado.

I'm sorry who the hell said MSNBC is conservative?

Hmmm. Waiting for Montana to turn red on the map, since all recent polls for Montana here on Pollster are Rasmussen.

you americans are so stupid, bush fuked you guys, now its mcsame's turn! just bend over and take it from big oil. its official:AMERICA IS THE DUMBEST NATION IN THE WORLD!!!

I don't think that Montana is as competitive as it has been polling. I'm sure the Obama campaign is already moving resources to states that are still up for grabs

**sigh** there's always one of these guys everywhere...

Change you're a jackass. Try to come up with a better statement than that please or else the conservatives on this blog will have a field day and put you with the rest of us. And we don't really want you...

Hopefully we can retire the JOKE of Obama winning Montana -- or South/North Dakota, Idaho, Arizona, and Wyoming. He might run close in or win Colorado, but I expect that state to shift to its normal red very soon!

"you americans are so stupid, bush fuked you guys, now its mcsame's turn! just bend over and take it from big oil. its official:AMERICA IS THE DUMBEST NATION IN THE WORLD!!!"

Robi and Change need to take their foreign points of view somewhere else! America is the greatest country on the planet and we are proud of it. Move to Europe if you don't like it.

just kidding Robi...lol!!!

haha...

@Robi: I'm not convinced that 'change' is really an Obama supporter.

I wanted to add that you shouldn't worry about what 'conservatives' think of 'us'. Did you notice that one of these 'conservative' has as a handle 'NeverMetAnHonestLib'? I encourage you and all those who supports a progressive agenda to stick to the facts and let readers make up their own minds.

I think the numbers for Montana have been reversed all along. Clicking on the polls, McCain is clearly ahead...by more than 3.

One poll has them tied.
1 poll each has each one up by 5
1 poll (newest one) has McCain up by 11.
1 poll has McCain up by 8.

Someone please correct this and put Montana as deep red as it should be.

the idea the mt (or idaho, nd, sd, sc, nc, or ga) would go blue was just absolutely stupid.

Hmm.. the GOP ticket is now mccain/PALIN rather than McCAIN/Palin.

I live in Montana and a paid Obama representative canvassed my neighborhood last night. Obama has a lot of support here. He will likely get all of Tester's 2006 votes and more due to higher turnout. Obama could make big gains here by pointing out McCain's opposition to Amtrak.

The Democratic governor of Montana made a great speech at the Denver convention, though most coverage ignored it. He's at least as folksy as Palin, and doesn't claim to be an attack dog.

I have no idea whether MT is out of play, but they have a D governor and a D Senator, so they aren't exactly Alaskans.

The issues vs personality split in this race is interesting. D's have issues, R's (for now) have (one) personality. Poor little Sarah Barracuda/Pitbull, having to answer all those rude questions while handlers use her family as a human shield. She shouldn't have to know anything about issues! Who really cares about her past? Lighten up! Drill. baby.drill!

So impolite, those reporters. Why can't they be nice and believe everything they're told by pathological liars like Karl Rove? He's got to be loving this crap, while the Earth spins on toward a new climate set point.

But hey, with a Holy War going on and a Holy Pipeline in the works, everything's under control. Go back to sleep, sleep...

If the Palin bubble lasts until Nov. 4, they win. What DOES God want to happen? Lower cap gains taxes? Cheap oil?

This poll has to be disappointing for Obama, especially considering the fact that both Obama and Biden have visited MT recently. It is clearly trending toward McCain.

Then again, Gallup is showing no movement toward McCain in the West (which includes MT, CO, NM, NV)--despite his bounce in other parts of the country. See:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108037/Candidate-Support-Region.aspx

Also, Ron Paul will be on the ballot in MT, but was not named in right-leaning Rasmussen's questioning.

It's still too early for Obama to write-off MT.

I have looked at this again, we had a hugely suspect and now we can see why poll showing 20% to McCain in NC, so I think Montana is still in play, Barr comes into play takes abit off McCain.

You know the Obama Campaign also has their own numbers and Governor Shreiber? has a 65% Approval rating(OK it's not 80% Palin's was actually 64% immediately before the pick)seems to be the sort of Gov who wields a great deal of influence not withstanding the NRA.

I think the issue with gun owners other than political affiliation is of public policy in the cities.

I don't understand as in the western movies I used to watch sometimes featured the tough Sheriff and his deputies at the town entrance disarming the cowboys on their way into town. 2nd ammendment rights!

Don't color MT red just yet. I live here and I think you'll be very surprised when MT goes for Obama. In my town the Obama signs and stickers on cars outnumber McCain by at least 10 to 1. A poll done in Bozeman, a pretty conservative place had McCain up by only 1% and there are far more pro Obama letters than pro McCain or pro Palin letters in the Bozeman paper. We also have our very popular Democratic governor and senator up for election and the Republican party is badly split between conservatives and moderates and the addition of Ron Paul to the ballot will draw many Republicans away from McCain. Far from pulling out his resources, Obama should continue the fight and maybe spend a day on a bus hitting the small towns here. Also Montana women shoot, gut, and clean game all the time in addition to herding sheep and cattle. They are not all that impressed with an ex-beauty queen who recites a few canned lines to introduce someone. They would prefer to hear Sarah actually talk about issues.

Actually, Ron Paul draws more Independent voters leaning Democrat (anti-war) than Republican. Additionally, you failed to mention that Bozeman is the location for Montana State University, which I would surmise is similar in poltical attitude to Missoula (home of University of Montana).

Actually, people who own guns in Montana are not going to be too impressed with Obama's anti-gun stance. The NRA will make that stance very clear.

KipTin, as far as I know, you don't live here. The R convention had significantly more Paul delegates then McCain and he does not draw much support at all from anti-war Democrats. Yes, MSU is in Bozeman but neither the campus nor the city is as liberal as Missoula. The one issue NRA people are already going to vote Republican but there are many of us who own guns and hunt, including many NRA members who don't dance to the NRA tune including our governor.