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NatJournal: CO, FL, NM, OH, VA (9/11-15)

Topics: PHome

Allstate / National Journal
9/11-15/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Colorado (402 RV, 4.9%)
Obama 45, McCain 44

Florida (402 RV, 4.9%)
McCain 44, Obama 44

New Mexico (402 RV, 4.9%)
Obama 49, McCain 42

Ohio (400 RV, 4.9%)
McCain 42, Obama 41

Virginia (409 RV, 4.9%)
McCain 48, Obama 41

 

Comments
ItsTheEconomyStupid:

Small samples, big MOE. Nonetheless, these confirm what we've seen elsewhere: this thing is close.

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AmericaFirst:

That's a bad VA for Obama. The rest looks pretty good for him. The sample sizes are so small though.

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Hope Reborn:

Anything dated prior to 9/15 is old news. This pollster needs to publish the day after polling if they're to be considered relevant.

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mccainandpalinareliars:

The tide is turning since mccain & palin are two lying pieces of garbage.

Yeah, all politicians stretch the truth - but these two nutjobs are just ridiculous. Yikes.

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kweber7:

Looks like Obama will (likely) turn New Mexico and (definitely) turn Iowa from 2004.

For McCain to win, he's going to need to hold FL (likely, despite this poll), OH (probably 60-40 McCain wins at this point), VA (again 60-40 McCain), NV (probably 60-40 again for McCain) and then squeak out a win in Colorado (way too close to call right now) or take a Kerry state like MI or PA (at least 60-40 for Obama in both states right now, if not better).

Thin margin of error for McCain.

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carl29:

Florida is all over the place, isn't it? My home state ! ! !

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NW Patrick:

VERY thin margin for McCain. And poll doesn't reflect the last 48 hours. McCain's in DEEP trouble.

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RaleighNC:

2nd poll showing McCain with a modest lead in VA. 3rd poll to show it tied in FL. Hmmmm.....

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Today's Gallup: Obama 48/McCain 44.

Some small sample sizes in these polls, but they generally confirm that Obama's pathway to the presidency is increasingly looking like it goes through CO or OH, perhaps VA. He needs 1 of 3 to win while McCain needs to protect all three.

Interestingly, the Wisconsin media study that everyone has latched on to because it reports Obama was negative 77% of the time (their definition of negative, btw, is mentioning the candidate's name...which would therefore include all contrast ads in the definition) also reported McCain is making a big play for Pennsylvania. He's spent $1.6 million to Obama's $0.9 million in the past week in Pennsylvania. We'll have to see if the spending imbalance will move the poll numbers, just as it appears that Obama's unopposed $0.2 million in Indiana is moving the numbers in his direction there.

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Connor:

I'm guessing that we'll have no idea what's going on with Florida til November 4 (or maybe even a few days/weeks/months/years after that).

Wait, this started on 9/11?

Blah. Forget this poll.

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NW Patrick:

15 polls this year in Colorado have shown Obama in the lead. 6 with McCain. 4 of the last 5 OBAMA. Latest GALLOP tracker today, Obama up 4. McCain has a problem in Colorado.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

@kweber7

I agree with your selection of key states, but there's no way McCain's going to get 60% in any of them. Bush won less than five points in NV, OH, and CO, while getting just under 54% in Virginia. Unless McCain can peal off MI or WI (a possibility I would not dismiss) Obama will have a lot more ways of getting to 270.

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KipTin:

Drop the garbage about OLD NEWS. It is not OLD in context of state polling.

All polls within margin of error except New Mexico (.1%) and Virginia 7%.

There will be more than plenty of polls on Virginia to sort out the numbers there. Otherwise, a tight race as virtually ALL polls are showing.

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JFactor:

A bit too old polls, a bit too big MoE. VA is still more likely to go to McCain but otherwise no major conclusions can be drawn from these polls.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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KipTin:

Maybe I missed something...NW Patrick... How does the RV of Gallup polls correlate with any Colorado poll?

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1magine:

HUUGE MOE. I need to study the internals - VA looks like an outlier. FL looks close - but JM will almost certainly take it. They aare testing out the nastiest possible attack ads they can trot out to paint BO as dangerously anti-Israel. Of course, given JM's huge gaffe last night confusing the Spanish President with a Central American drug lord, you never know. Cubans are nobody's fool, and won't tolerate too much of JM's mass confusion. Even the +65 crowd, may rethink things; remember - nobody knows better the early signs and harsh realities that dementia brings. If they begin to think that JM is just not all there anymore - or stressed by the campaign, they may start to turn, even a small fraction would have a tremendous impact in FL and on the race.

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Snowspinner:

I don't think, in this case, the polls are too old - though I don't see how a 400 voter poll takes four days.

it's close. The problem is that a close race still favors Obama, because fundamentally the "battleground" states that are showing any propensity to actually flip back and forth between McCain and Obama are Bush states. Given that Iowa and New Mexico are increasingly safe Obama states, any battleground state - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Indiana - is an Obama victory.

Thus being close in all of those states is not a safe position for McCain, because he has to hold all of them.

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sean2112:

Old poll. Yawn.

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s.b.:

No these polls aren't old and daily tracking numbers nationally are the most likely to shift based on daily events. Swing states are being targeted by advertising that is not airing nationally and their polls are thus less affected by daily national events.

Yes Obama's national numbers are up but if its Illinois, NY and California where hehas gained it doesn't mean anything to the Electoral college.

These polls aren't old and the daily shifts in traking polls nationally will be old when these polls are still relevent.

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BarackO'Clinton:

I don't buy Obama being tied in FL, even though two recent polls have him there. FL is going McCain with little struggle. OH will too unless McCain really screws up.

It's all about CO & VA for the big O.

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s.b.:

The stock market drop will be old two weeks from now. And even ifit isn't, running around like chicken littel screaming the sky is falling to get votes isn't exactly the best way to look presidential in a time of crisis. That too will get old and the McCain fundamentls of the economy are strong, which they are will sound a much more reasonable approach than being chicken little and talking about the depression and the sky falling. I can tell you the last thing I want a POTUS to do when stocks drop is to start talking about the depression, how awful everythingis when it isn't, hand outs and higher taxes.

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thoughtful:

@Undecided/Kiptin

@Boom

Florida should be yellow, NH should be light blue?

Rasmussen Id Weights do seem to be too clever now. Tried to add the Big Mo, but how was he to know that McCain/Palin got called out on the lies and then the crash.

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Snowspinner:

s.b. - All true, but it is worth noting, the number of times where the national popular vote winner has lost the electoral college is very, very small. The election may not be won on national popular vote, but it's not a bad predictor.

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Nabz:

Any polls taken before Sep. 15th are worthless at this point. There has been a significant, undeniable shift towards Obama starting at the beginning of this week and these polls do not reflect that.

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1magine:

OMG - I just realized why the MOE - How do you only poll 400 people. There's more people on the morning subway in Tampa, or walking on a single block in the "Heights" in Cleveland... Seriously 400 people, maybe is a 4-5% MOE in NM with its smaller population, but not OH FL or VA. I've lived in these places (Athens, OH; St. Petersburg, FL., Richmond, VA) A thousand would be minimal to get a decent sampling of the various counties. Your own experience probably tells you this is the case. Neighborhoods in the same city or county vary from progressive to conservative and 400 people is not enough statewide to get any semblance of truth at this point.
Not to mention 9/11-9/12 polling is not too useful generally.

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NW Patrick:

s.b. you should deal in facts. The only independent studies show OBAMA lowering taxes for average Americans. You drank the Kool-Aide.

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serpounce:

We've now seen double digit variation in VA polling in the last few days. It's odd how some states, such as CO seem very close because the numbers are always with the MoE, while others like VA are question marks because there have been good results for both sides. I'm not sure what to make of that.

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Robi:

I have no idea what to make of these polls.

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faithhopelove:

These polls are all stale; they pick-up the tail-end of McCain's bounce and include a day of 9/11 polling (a strong polling day for McCain). They include only one day of reaction to the distressing economic news.

As others have mentioned, these polls have tiny samples. Their results put all 5 states within the margin of error--statistical ties.

Nonetheless, Obama will take the NM result (where he campaigns today), and McCain will take the VA result (which is curious in that it is inconsistent with other recent VA polls).

The other 3 states--CO, FL, and OH--are toss-ups. Obama has had 3 stops over 2 days in CO since these polls were taken; he drew a combined total of over 20,000 people to his events. Biden has 3 events in OH today. Obama is in FL Friday and Saturday. 3 of the last 4 FL polls have shown a tie there.

Despite the VA result, Obama would take these numbers on election night, as the Kerry states + IA, CO, and NM would make him the winner.


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serpounce:

OT: why have there been no polls for PA all week? I'm really eager to see whether Obama has picked up there at all.

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jatchwa:

It is preposterous to pretend a poll that is less than a week old is "old news." These are snapshots, and the picture is getting a little clearer. That's not to say it won't change, because it will, but these data points are interesting and important.

That said, the pollsters owe us internal numbers and a sample size of 600, not 400.

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change:

this is truly ridiculous. counting a poll from 11-15 prior to the economic news that may have turned things in obama's favor.

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John:

Does anyone know which demographics the National Journal weighs?
Either by chance or projection, the poll's demographics (race and party id) appear to be more favourable to McCain in CO, NM, FL and VA than the average pollster, but more favourable to Obama in OH.

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player:

Was it the evil grasshopper man who said that " its the economy stupid?" James is from the deep south isn't he? I wonder who he is voting for? I'll bet that it isn't Obama.

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ncc81701:

@ s.b
"The stock market drop will be old two weeks from now. And even ifit isn't, running around like chicken littel screaming the sky is falling to get votes isn't exactly the best way to look presidential in a time of crisis. That too will get old and the McCain fundamentls of the economy are strong, which they are will sound a much more reasonable approach than being chicken little and talking about the depression and the sky falling. I can tell you the last thing I want a POTUS to do when stocks drop is to start talking about the depression, how awful everythingis when it isn't, hand outs and higher taxes."

The problem with McCain's statement that "The fundamentals of the economy is strong" whether true or not give an impression that he does not care about the economy. It is similar to what the current administration does, just keep saying the economy is strong, pass out stimulus checks and hope for the best while doing nothing to fix or prevent what caused the collapse of an industry in the first place. With McCain's continue reliance on the line that"fundamentals of the economy is strong," despite everything that is going on with wall street, I think is a textbook definition of Colbert's word: thrutiness.

I think the public is tired of a president doesn't even acknowledge the truth when everyone else sees it, and McCain's repeated comment on the fundamentals of the economy isn't helping him there. There is a difference between panicking and screaming that the sky is falling, and acknowledging the truth that there is a problem with the economy. I rather have a president that will acknowledge a problem and fix it instead of doing nothing and just hoping that the problem will fix itself.

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ncc81701:

truthiness*

cant' spell a fake word -_-

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RS:

Eric D./Mark B.:
Can you use Mark B.'s National Journal connections to get the internals of this poll? :-)
Particularly because, as Tom Jensen @ PPP explains, the PPP poll shows Obama up 48-46 in VA while the Christopher Newport U poll shows McCain up 9% because CNU dramatically under-represents African-Americans (CNU less than 10%, should be 20-22%) and young voters:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/diverging-virginia-polls.html

Also, Tom Jensen writes that for VA, both PPP and SUSA found Dems more strongly behind Obama/Biden than Republicans are behind McCain/Palin - post-Palin!
publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/palins-effect-in-virginia.html

Whereas this AllState/NJ poll shows the GOP and Dems equally united... something to think about.

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If Obama and Biden can hold on to Michigan and Pennsylvania,and get a win in Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa then the Democrats will win without Ohio or Florida. I think Obama and Biden will also win Nevada, and they have a good chance of winning Virginia. Indiana is going to be close and is winable for the Democrats.

After the last 2 Presidential elections of Ohio and Florida deciding the election it is nice to know that we can win without Ohio and Florida, but winning at least one of those states would be great and it would assure an Obama/Biden win.

McCain and Palin have no economic plan, and they have no plan to end this war in Iraq. Our country can't afford 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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