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NBC: NV, CO, MO, OH, NC, VA, FL, PA (10/28-29)

Topics: PHome

NBC / Mason-Dixon
10/28-29/08; 625 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Nevada
Obama 47, McCain 43

Colorado
Obama 49, McCain 44

Missouri
McCain 47, Obama 46

Florida
Obama 47, McCain 45

Ohio
McCain 47, Obama 45

North Carolina
McCain 49, Obama 46

Virginia
Obama 47, McCain 44

Pennsylvania
Obama 47, McCain 43

Also:
Courier-Journal / Mason-Dixon
10/27-29/08; 817 LV, 3.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Kentucky
McCain 53, Obama 41
Sen: McConnell (R-i) 47, Lunsford (D) 42

 

Comments
Trosen:

hah.. I can tell you.. PA, NV, and CO are NOT that close. The others.. somewhat pluasible.

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NeutralNick:

If a republican candidate gets landslided based on mason dixon polls, you know you are in trouble.

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Dewey1858:

That Ohio number will switch the state back to light blue on the pollster map, though, I'm guessing.

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hou04:

These Mason-Dixon polls are already aging a bit, conducted 10/28-29/08.

It's 11/2 today. Why are they sitting on their polls?

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maddiekat:

PB Crunch

My mistake the election will not be over until VA and Georgia turn blue at around 7:30 pm Thursday night.

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OGLiberal:

Does M-D push leaners at all? Too many undecideds in all of these polls (and the ones they released earlier this week)...especially this late in the game.

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maddiekat:

I mean Tuesday night of course! Unless your a republican and be sure to vote Thursday

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oberon:

They finished polling on 29th - all polling done prior to the infomercial - so why are they not released until today? So the McCain camp can use them for spin.

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McBabieIsNoGood:

Not only are PA, NV and CO not that close, McCain is not ahead in OH by 2 and Obama is not up in VA by just 3.

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deeznutsrepubs:

If these are the best numbers mccrap can hope for (considering it is mason-dixon) then he is #@$%#$.

Palin in 2012!! C'mon everyone, pass it along!

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Scribo:

@maddiekat

I don't expect GA to go blue that early, though it may well at some point in the night.

VA alone will do the trick, though.

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sunnymi:

SurveyUSA - PA

O-51
M-44

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Pat:

I started to worry about PA very late last night after I got an e-mail from Obama camp urging supporters to make calls to PA today because they were falling behind their call goals. Earlier yesterday I was only given Ohio, VA and Colorado as top priority.

Are they detecting late movement to McCain or just being cautious?

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sunnymi:

SurveyUSA - PA

Obama - 51%
McCain - 44%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8da4a686-5e24-4c6a-8fd5-8c9ba979eff0

This margin in O+7 despite McCain getting 16% AA and Obama is tied among Whites!

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hou04:

Love that SurveyUSA PA poll!!!

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NeutralNick:

"Are they detecting late movement to McCain or just being cautious?"

Surveyusa says don't worry

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Dewey1858:

@Pat:
I started to worry about PA very late last night after I got an e-mail from Obama camp urging supporters to make calls to PA today because they were falling behind their call goals. Earlier yesterday I was only given Ohio, VA and Colorado as top priority.

Are they detecting late movement to McCain or just being cautious?

Maybe because they shifted some ground troops from PA to Ohio?

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defeatMcShame:

SUSA has just come out with a PA poll...forget Mason-dixon they have been erratic in the primary this year..

SUSA:
O 51 M 44

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8da4a686-5e24-4c6a-8fd5-8c9ba979eff0

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Centrist_Dem:

M-D has never had Obama ahead in OH -- their last poll showed almost the same number in mid-Oct., even while every other poll gave Obama about +7-9. They obviously have a very diff't model for the state than everyone else. Of course they COULD be right, but then everyone else would have to be completely wrong.

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chrisinnc:

I don't like these numbers - all too close for comfort, and very dissapointed in the OH and NC numbers (although I think with early vote in NC Obama can afford to be down 3, if that's really the case).

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chrisinnc:

I am beginning specifically to worry about VA - with the polls that had him only about +4 our Thurs and nothing since, this +3 does not make me comfortable.

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Dewey1858:

@chrisinnc:
I don't like these numbers - all too close for comfort, and very dissapointed in the OH and NC numbers (although I think with early vote in NC Obama can afford to be down 3, if that's really the case).

Every MD number I've seen in the past three weeks has been too close for comfort. Which is probably a very good thing. Let's not get comfortable.


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JCK:

I'll take these numbers from a Republican leaning pollster, who, as carl29 points out, understimated Kerry's support in NM, CO, and NV last time around.

McCain is in deep, deep trouble.


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sunnymi:


As they mention in their poll the data they have seems very volatile....I think they might have another poll out tomorrow.

1. 16% AA support for McCain
2. Tied among Whites
3. Closest margin between Dems and Reps I've in this cycle.
4. Both candidates getting an equal amount of defectors from the other party.
5. McCain leading in South Central (Le High Valley) by double digits and Obama leading by double digits in North East(Scranton) and South West(Pittsburgh)

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ctj:

THANK YOU SURVEY USA FOR CALMING DOWN ALL OF MY OBAMA FRIENDS IN REGARD TO PA!

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political_junki:

sunnymi:
SurveyUSA always overestimates AA support for McSame.
They had another PA poll 10 days ago with Obama +12 but with2 major changes:
In that one Obama was getting 90% of AA support which makes sense.
Party id was D 52 R 41, now it is D49 R41.
Taking these 2 things into accounts, it is a good poll.
They are tied among white vote, that is extraordinarily good for Obama, it is a bit optimistic in this regard though

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tom brady:

If Obama loses this, it will be because of that stupid 50-state strategy. Why he's not focusing on closing the deal in the battleground states is beyond me, unless he thinks he's plateaued.

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Centrist_Dem:

Just to put the VA # in perspective, this is actually Obama +1 from M-D's last VA poll.

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chrisinnc:

Does anyone know what the last M-D numbers were in VA and CO?

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IdahoMike:

Late movement? Try late release of poll, oversampling of repub's and independents, and, and, and.

Light blue for Ohio, I don't think so. If it was released back when it would have been relevant, it would have scared me considerably... As is, not worth the electrons it took to fill my screen with its garbled nonsense.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

CNN National Poll O+7

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carl29:

Notice that Mason-Dixon was very careful in doing their polls before Obama's informercial. They didn't want to get the bump from the "event."

Those kids :-)!!!!

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Marcus:

@ Tom Brady

i totally disagree. The strategy is an integral part of changing the electorate for generations to come. Obama will win this election and Repubs will really struggle to overcome the natural deficit they now encounter almost everywhere. I LOVE the stategy.

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chrisinnc:

Centrist_Dem:

Thanks! That was the info I'm looking for.

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Scribo:

I honestly don't see how NV can be 47-43 now. I am calling BS on the Nevada numbers. Early voting totals are really piling up there, with 46 p.c. of RV having already been counted as of Friday PM.

This means that probably half the people they are talking to should already have voted. So how the heck can undecideds be at 10 p.c.? This would mean that of the respondents who haven't voted, the undecided rate must be 20 p.c.

Furthermore, Dems have cast more than 50 p.c. of the ballots in the two population centers, which account for almost 90 p.c. of the state. In those two counties, the Dems have cast more than 50 p.c. of the ballots, more than GOP and unaffiliated combined.

Yet Obama still polls at just 47 p.c.?

Something's wrong here.

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mysticlaker:

HAHA Tom Brady:

Thank you for your concern. Which states should Obama be focusing on that he is not? What state has had one wasted visit?

The ad buys are because the markets are saturated. The Obama campaign can't really buy any more ads in the "battelground states". Throwing a few hundred thosand towards ND and Az is smart money.

What's you history of running campaigns compared to Axelrod? Also, how's you knee?

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sunnymi:

tom brady, you said "If Obama loses this, it will be because of that stupid 50-state strategy. Why he's not focusing on closing the deal in the battleground states is beyond me, unless he thinks he's plateaued."


There is nothing as closing the deal until the votes are cast..they have the ground work done in all the states they are competing in including PA....The 50-strategy has given rise to so many possibilites for Obama to get to 270 unlike Kerry last time when had only OH and McCain this time when he is all-in on PA.

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carl29:

Notice that Mason-Dixon was very careful in doing their polls before Obama's informercial. They didn't want to get the bump from the "event."

Those kids :-)!!!!

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Thatcher:

@tom brady

LOL ... ROFLMAO ... Oh gosh I'm dying here ...

You do realize that Obama has the strongest polling numbers of any Democratic presidential candidate in over 30 years???? If not longer .... Perhaps all the way back to the start of Presidential polling ...

What makes anyone think that Obama will lose this is beyond me.

For all Democrats who are worried .... stop coming online and go to your nearest Obama HQ and volunteer to GOTV ... http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/tallahassee-florida-moments-ago.html

For all Republicans who are trying to stoke the fire ... stop coming online and go to your nearest McCain HQ and volunteer ... if they are open .... http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/72-hour-program.html

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BarackO'Clinton:

Take a look at the results of the primaries. Obama consistently outperformed his poll numbers in every state except two, CA and the legendary NH.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/dem_results.html

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Thatcher:

@Pro-America_Anti-America:

CNN National Poll O+7

That's a +2 improvement for Obama over the last poll by CNN.

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mysticlaker:
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sunnymi:


@political_junki:

In that previous SUSA O+12 poll he was actually leading among Whites.

In addition look at the weird regional splits in this latest poll....I cannot imagine Obama leading in the SW and NE but trailing in the S-Central.

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fed:

CNN with third parties included Obama +8

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carl29:

@BarackO'Clinton,

But even in NH and CA he only under-perform his numbers by less than 2%. I mean that is way within the margin of error!!!!!

Pre-election polls in NH: Obama 38.3%

Actual vote: Obama 36.4%


Pre-election polls in CA: Obama 44%

Actual vote: Obama 42.3%

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Austin:

Looking at trends of OH and FL, McCain should have all the votes of undeciders to win, but that's not going to happen.

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whitetower:

I like the polls that don't push undecideds into the nonsense category of "leaners". It gives a better picture of what is going on.

Take a closer look at these polls: if McCain ultimately keeps these numbers for OH, while pulling over the undecideds in FL and VA, Obama is in trouble.

At that point, even if Obama wins in NM, CO, NV, IA, and NH it would all be for naught if McCain wins PA -- I suspect that is where the real race will be.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

The best thing about the CNN poll is not only the numbers but it will knock off that garbage Fox poll from RCP average.

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SmarterThanYou:

Not a single one of these is over 50% for either candidate. Something seems wrong.

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sunnymi:


CNN National Poll (with 3rd party candidates)

I think this is the more realistic scenario because it involves all candidates

Obama - 51
McCain - 43

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Paul:

AS to SUSA poll, in 2004 Kerry won 84% of the AA vote which represented 13% of the electorate. Hard to believe Obama would not do better than Kerry with AA. In addition, SUSA under-sampled AA by 3 points, just based on 2004.

Obama is ahead with women by 10 points and ahead with men by 4 points.

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mysticlaker:

whitetower:

come again, how does mccain get to 270?

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cjk002:

Did anyone else notice that all of these polls were concluded in the middle of last week when the national polls were tightening?

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@mysticlaker

Apparently he will hold VA, FL, OH and then win over PA

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Pazienza:

Thread that needle Johnny Mac! Remember the polls will only get tighter in the next 2 days. Remember Hillary Clinton who constantly outperformed the polling when running against Obama. Remember his weak closings and your strong finishes. Mason-Dixon already shows you holding Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina. Very close in Florida and Virginia - very doable. Pull it out in Pennsylvania and we have President John McCain!

The liberal tutorial is that Sen. Obama is a visionary, a man of hope, if not the political equivalent of the Second Coming. And a plurality of the student body appears to accept this at face value. But Obama has sparse political experience, no executive experience, no leadership experience, really, and woefully little experience at much of anything. - PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW EDITORIAL

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mysticlaker:

@PAAA

Aah, defy all logic and polling...got it.

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political_junki:

sunnymi:
Could you share the cnn poll link?

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mysticlaker:

I don't know why I care, but I do...

This CNN poll should knock off faux news on rcp.

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political_junki:

Found it sunny, thanx

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carl29:

Regarding the SurveyUsa poll in PA, I think we should try to make a fairly "educated" assesment of polls. The majority of us have being here for quite a while to having learned to dissect polls in a more complex fashion. Why do I mean?

Well, this SurveyUsa poll has a SMALLER Democratic party ID than the previous. Let me show you,

SurveyUSA 10/23 Obama 53 McCain 41,
Dem. ID gap of 11%, Dem 52% vs. Rep 41%


SurveyUsa 11/2 Obama 51% McCain 44,
Dem. ID gap of 8%, Dem. 49% vs. Rep 41%

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sunnymi:

@political_junki, you asked "sunnymi:
Could you share the cnn poll link?"


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/02/obama-seven-points-ahead-in-cnns-final-poll/

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MNLatteLiberal:

somewhere out there in NC boomshak is sacrificing another chicken and doing a victory lap around the empty pizza boxes in silent frustration that he cannot post. Boom, I know you are reading this, and you are with us in spirit! Enjoy this poll, this is the last time you will see the old man up in Ohio, and prob. MO.

boom, those santeria lessons finally paying off, eh? LOL

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deman1972:

Mason-Dixon's polls are based on only 625 people?? Hmmmm...plus they are 48 hours old!!!!

I don't trust it!!!!

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political_junki:

"But CNN Polling Director Keating Holland cautions against assuming the election is over."

Yeah ofcourse, we wouldnt want to hurt CNN's ratings. lol these guys are a riot.

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nyt:

looks like it's gonna be a VERY close race. personally im hoping Obama wins without Ohio. Ohio's always voted for the winner except for once in 1904. Looks like this could be 2nd time they go for the loser.

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ctj:

OK ALL YOU PA DOUBTERS WHO HAVE BEEN SLAMMING ME THE PAST 3 DAYS (albeit a polite slamming- LOL!). I am going to give you a breakdown of the last 11 elections by percentages (winner of PA listed first)of PA results and you will see that other than 64 and 72 blowouts in PA just don't happen (take a good hard look at 1984 if you want any further proof).

64- Johnson 64.9 Goldwater 34.7
68- Humphrey- 47.6 Nixon 44
72- Nixon- 59 McGovern 39
76- Carter- 50.4 Ford 47.7
80- Reagan- 49.2 Carter 42.5
84- Reagan- 53.3 Mondale-46
88- Bush- 50.7 Dukakis-48.4
92- Clinton- 45 Bush 36.5
96- Clinton- 49 Dole 40
00 Gore-52 Bush-47
04 Kerry- 51 Bush-48

KEEP THE FAITH PA STAYS BLUE!!!

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Thatcher:

@political_junki

LOL ... they have Obama at 53% .... so not only would McCain have to pick up ALL the undecideds ... but Obama would also have to lose over 3% of his supporter in order for McCain to surpass Obama in the national vote

And Holland cautions against assuming the election is over?!?!?!?! ROFLMAO

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Nhoj:

i really dislike m-d polls way too many undecided in all of them it annoys me i think i shall wait for rasmussen who actually can poll.

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Ryan in MO:

35,000 people at the Springfield, MO rally last night. No way McCain is ahead in MO. MO will go Obama by more than just a couple of points. As I'vs said for a couple months now, MO has a LOT of junk polls coming out (still.)

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coffeemana:

"I started to worry about PA very late last night after I got an e-mail from Obama camp urging supporters to make calls to PA today because they were falling behind their call goals. Earlier yesterday I was only given Ohio, VA and Colorado as top priority.'

My wife and I were calling base dem vote in FL and CO yesterday from a site that has placed more calls than anywhere in the country (from suburban N California, of all places), apparently. I do think that the campaign considers Obama to have plateaued in PA and probably feels that Californians are more culturally similar to Coloradans and Floridians than they are to Pennsylvania and other folk. I remain convinced that Obama is banking heavily on Latino voters and is making a last ditch effort to get Latinos to the polls on Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see whom we are assigned to call today!

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@political_junki

Yeah it's funny how they announce these national polls with big leads and then find one poll somewhere showing it close in a single state and pound on it. When was the last time someone got 5-10 points nationally and lost?

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carl29:

ctj,

Obama is creaing McCain among Independents in PA. Look at this:

NOW:

Independent voters: Obama 57% McCain 24%, ouch.....

BEFORE:

Independent voters: Obama 54% McCain 33%

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jonny87:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

NC at 74.9% of 2004 turnout

youth turnout surging

yesterday 13.9% today 15.0% (was 10.8% last weekend)

AA turnout sky high

Id advantage 20 points

looking good

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Thatcher:

@PAAA

When was the last time someone got 5-10 points nationally and lost?

Oooooooooo... I know I know I know ....

Never.

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Jaq:

Okay, I might be jinxing Obama here, but let's try something else for a change.

The narrative everywhere seems to operate on the assumption that anything remotely "in play" is going to go towards McCain, and even at places like this the notion is based on that assumption. So let's turn it around for a moment.

Obama holds marginal leads on the Pollster map in North Carolina, Florida, and Missouri. Obama wins those states, it's a landslide. Obama wins Ohio and Pennsylvania and those states, it's a giant landslide. Throw in Virginia and it's a crushing landslide.

Again, not trying to jinx. But the narrative is being shaped rather oddly for a candidate leading nationally from 7% to 13%. Democrats are SO nervous. Not going to say Obama's got this, but the potential for the Obama win is so much higher than the McCain one at the moment.

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carl29:

coffeemana,

I am a latina myself, and I can tell you that Barack has invested resources in the latino community like nobody before. He will get a strong support of the latino community, even better than Bill Clinton I would say.

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s.b.:

Obama isn't over 50% in any of those polls. That's not good news.

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political_junki:

@Ryan in MO:
"MO will go Obama by more than just a couple of points."
I take it at your word my friend :)

@jonny:
These are really impressive numbers.
GA's AA turn out has remained surprisignly steady around 35. Do you have an estimate of how much Barr gets in GA? If he gets 10, Obama will win GA :)

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ctj:

carl29,

EXACTLY my point. People have been freaking out on here for the past few days becuase PA has closed up. I am no guru believe you me, but this nonsense that Obama was going to win PA by double digits was just that- nonsense.

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newageblues:

have to agree with Marcus. Howard Dean first pushed the idea of expanding the battleground. It's not like Obama's advertising everywhere, many Obama volunteers recruited by red state Obama organizations have traveled to battleground states, and enthusiasm for Obama in red states can transcend state boundaries, and there's also the need to build for the future.
To change subject, the skinny athletic guy has way more political skills than Jimmy Carter (God bless him), and way less baggage than Bill Clinton (bless him too), and his real strenth is in policy, what a tragedy it will be if he doesn't win. Not to mention that he's uniquely placed and capable of helping to heal the racial divides in this country.

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carl29:

s.b.,

McCain is surging; get ready for the party :-)

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Fioreb:

Just read the Foxnews article on AZ being in contention with Sem Obama launching a series of Ads featuring Powell and Buffett. Should that turn out to be the case and lead to Obama winning the state I think we should see a 'wipe-out' not just a landslide on Nov 4.
GOTV!!

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douglasdao:

Did you see McCain on Saturday Night Live last night? He very clearly was signaling that he knows he is going to lose. Also interesting was the slamming of Palin right in front of McCain's face, makes you wonder what he really thinks of Palin these days.

McCain campaign's internal numbers are showing the same thing everyone else's numbers are showing. This race is over, the best the McCain campaign can do is avoid a landslide. Look at where they are campaigning - red states except for PA to save some face.

I will repeat again: every single national poll for the past three weeks has shown an Obama lead larger than the margin of error. Every single analysis of the electoral college map shows a significant win for Obama and has for three weeks. It's that simple.

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carl29:

@douglasdao,

No, I didn't watch him. I refused to give one second of my time to McMaverick, just like I do to Fox :-)

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pbcrunch:

This only supports my theory that Mason Dixon is McCain's internal pollster.

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andrewfromva:

I have a confession to make: my mind is poisoned now to the point where anyone says the polls might be pointing in J.M.'s favor, I now assume that person is good 'ol Bookmshack under a different name! With the combined fact that Mac hasn't lead in a single national poll for the last 100 or so polls and the overall feeling of the race, I just can't see many bright spots for Mac.

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afs:

FoxNews/Rassmussen also shows a gain for Obama over its last three Virginia polls: +2->+3>+4

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miloent:

guys, compare the trends. obama's trending up or maintaining in all of those m-d polls except NC. this is a solid set of polls. (old polls i pulled from 538). RELAX

Nevada (obama margin +2 since last)
Obama 47, McCain 43

Colorado (+5 since last)
Obama 49, McCain 44

Missouri (-1)
McCain 47, Obama 46

Florida (unchanged from last, +3 from the one before that)
Obama 47, McCain 45

Ohio (-1)
McCain 47, Obama 45

North Carolina (-3)
McCain 49, Obama 46

Virginia (+1)
Obama 47, McCain 44

Pennsylvania (nc)
Obama 47, McCain 43

relax people

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maddiekat:

All five of these folks could not be wrong, could they?

http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2008/11/predictions-ele.html

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political_junki:

afs:
Is it a new poll? I cant see it on their website?

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Mike In Maryland:

Pat said...
"I started to worry about PA very late last night after I got an e-mail from Obama camp urging supporters to make calls to PA today. . . ."

Maybe the reason you received the message last night was because of someone calling Obama supporters in Penn with false information on where their polling place is located, and/or telling Obama supporters that someone will come by to pick them up and drive them to the polls, but leaving no information on who will do it, when, call-back number, etc.

Repig dirty tricks AGAIN. The law needs to be changed so that anyone convicted of knowingly attempting to mislead voters on any election and voting information gets a very large fine (multiple tens of thousands of dollars per incident) and gets hit with a very long felony prison term.

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RfrancisR:

As both a New Orleans Saints fan and a Democrat there is only one thing I can be certain of -- there is always a chance to lose.

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carl29:

Get this guys,

Illinois, Obama 60% McCain 38%, Obama +22%

Arizona, McCain 51 McCain 46%, McCain +5%


Whose "costumers" are more satisfied? Um....

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PlayingItStraight:

A little Virginia history --

Wilder was ahead by 4 is last M-D poll ... won by 0.25%. The other thing to note is that Washington Post is notorious for overstating Democratic strength in Virginia. As a long time observer of Virginia politics, I can say with a high degree of confidence that Mason-Dixon is the best public pollster in Virginia races.


In 1989 the pre-election polls showed Wilder would win by a larger margin. Washington Post gave Wilder 52%, Coleman 37%. Mason-Dixon poll conducted about the same time as the Post’s survey, Wilder had 48%, Coleman 44%.

Do I think Obama carries Virginia? Who knows? My gut tells me that Virginia will be much closer than most public polls suggest.

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jonny87:

@political_junki

i cant imagine barr getting anyway near 10%(but im from the UK so not the most informed about GA)

i remember months ago reading that obamas campaign believed that all they needed to do was get to 48% to win GA.

48-31(AAs)=17

17% needed from 69% electorate

non whites non AAs about 4%, obama gets 2.5%

14.5% from 65%=22.3% needed of white voters

at the moment hes polling 25-26% of white voters in GA so there is room for error.

thats why i see a decent shot for obama in GA

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pbcrunch:

These polls were done at the height of a slight McCain surge (or just a natural trend in his direction) in the beginning/middle of last week. If this is the best he can do, Obama's definitely doing very well...

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carl29:

PlayingItStraight,

It is going to be close, of course. But there is someone who I suspect knows a little bit about politics, especially in VA. Notice that I said a little bit, so take it with a grain of salt:

"Sabato Predicts Virginia Will Vote Democrat"

UVA Center for Politics' Larry Sabato is predicting Virginia will go blue on Tuesday. He's predicting an Obama win, but does not think Obama will win by double digits.

http://www.nbc29.com/Global/story.asp?S=9274556&nav=menu496_10

*Remember that I said that Prof. Sabato knows just a little bit, of course that he is NOT you :-)!!!!!

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tzager:

People go to vote and then help Obama campaign's GOTV efforts. People have the power to make this election a landslide!
My final electoral college prediction is: Obama 400 / McCain 138.
Come on America make it happen! Yes we can!

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AlanSnipes:

Ryan in Mo.

Don't base you conclusion about Missouri based on the size of the crowd at a rally. John Kerry in 2004 had a huge crowd in Madison Wi of about 85, 00 people and he barely carried Wi. That said, I hope he carries Mo. and I think he can, but it is very close either way.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

I am curious!


What will you all, kool aid drinkers, do if things don't go your way?

Will you move to Canada? Get off this site for good, perhaps lol?

All those polls show McCain either up or down within the margin of error...translation: THAT ISN'T GOOD FOR MESSIAH BOY!


LMAO!!!

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carl29:

@pbcrunch,

Notice that they were VERY, VERY careful of conducting these polls BEFORE Obama's informercial. They didn't want to catch the infomercial bump :-)

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Austin:

The last time I saw the losing candidate surged a couple of days before the election was 1992 Bush vs Clinton.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@sotonightthatimightsee

What are you doing wasting time on this site Rick Davis? Get your voters out there

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RfrancisR:

@Mike In Maryland:"telling Obama supporters that someone will come by to pick them up and drive them to the polls, but leaving no information on who will do it, when, call-back number, etc."
_________________

I'm guilty of doing this in Louisiana just yesterday for four consecutive hours. We enter into the automated phone system a number for anyone who needs a ride. The campaign will call back on ED to arrange a ride for those people who say yes. This is not a Republican scam.

____________________

afs:

I would like to remind douglasdao that the national poll doesn't matter. It is only an indicator, at least until the electoral college is abolished.

I am continually surprised by the large percentage of daily national polls given these circumstances.

____________________

miloent:

what will we be doing tuesday night? probably partying with the rest of the 51-55% of America who are also kool-aid drinkers.

what will you 45-49% of non-kool-aid drinkers be doing?

____________________

carl29:

@Pro-America_Anti-America,

Don't waste your time. People like that will only make our victory all the sweeter :-) Just imagining their faces in dispair, votiming in dusgust makes me laugh!!!!!

*I can't wait to see Hannity's face :-)

____________________

jonny87:

more conservative...

AAS 29% obama gets 95%

49-27.5 AAs

non white non AA make up 4% obama gets 2.5%

21.5-2.5

19/67=28.4% white vote needed

its going to be real close.

____________________

Thatcher:

@PlayingItStraight:

You are using an example almost 20 years old. Virginia has changed A LOT in 20 years.

First off - the population has grown by about 25% in that time - and most of that population explosion has been in the Alexandria/Arlington/etc area of NoVA ... liberal left NoVA

Former popular Governor Gilmore losing heavily to former popular Governor Warner

Governor Kaine - Democrat

State legislature - dems making gains

Wilder was 20 years ago. Today is 2008.

____________________

maddiekat:

sotonightthatimightsee

For anyone who obviously gets most of their news from Rush, Hannity and Drudge to call anyone a koolaid drinker is rather ironic!

____________________

afs:

@carl29:

I watched fox news online the other day just to see if they were as rabid as usual. It had been a long time since I last looked at it. I was very surprised to see the main newscasters being pretty even-handed, much more so than MSNBC. And I am a strong Obama supporter.

What does it mean? I don't know.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

RCP still has yet to update with the CNN numbers. Just can't let go of that Fox one I guess.

____________________

PlayingItStraight:

PA -- anybody know why the Morning Call details since October 30 are not to be found.

Always thought their numbers were optimistic especially when they had O up 13 or 14 ... their margin is now about half what it has been.

What's up? Is PA on the verge of slipping away? Or will it be a narrow victory for O?

____________________

carl29:

Get this guys,

Illinois, Obama 60% McCain 38%, Obama +22%

Arizona, McCain 51 McCain 46%, McCain +5%


Whose "costumers" are more satisfied? Um....

____________________

Austin:

Margin of Error means little. If there is a string of "margin of error" results favoring one candidate, that election is pretty much done.

____________________

carl29:

PlayingItStraight,

It is going to be close, of course. But there is someone who I suspect knows a little bit about politics, especially in VA. Notice that I said a little bit, so take it with a grain of salt:

"Sabato Predicts Virginia Will Vote Democrat"

UVA Center for Politics' Larry Sabato is predicting Virginia will go blue on Tuesday. He's predicting an Obama win, but does not think Obama will win by double digits.

http://www.nbc29.com/Global/story.asp?S=9274556&nav=menu496_10

*Remember that I said that Prof. Sabato knows just a little bit, of course that he is NOT you :-)!!!!!

____________________

RWCOLE:

Muhlenberg poll out this morning shows Obama with a nine point lead in Penn.

So much for the science of polling eh?

These polls can't ALL be right- or even within the "margin of error"...someone's playin politics with poll results I expect.

____________________

political_junki:
____________________

ModerateGuy:

Mason Dixon Polls were off last time in VA!

Mason Dixon (11/2-11/3)
Kilgore-44%
Kaine-45%
Potts-4%

RCP Avg:
Kilgore-45%
Kaine-48%
Potts-3%

Actual Results:
Kaine (D) 1,022,314 52%
Kilgore (R) 909,258 46%
Potts Jr. (I) 43,969 2%

____________________

tjampel:

Regarding SUSA

Consider this:

Party Affiliation Repub 41% Dem 49%
As pointed out, this doesn't reflect the actual party registration data; should be a wider gap here, just over 11% based on actual registration data. This alone is worth at least 2% for Obama, but I won't even include this in my projections (let's say that my AA projection includes about half of this)

Whites: Obama 47% McCain 47% (these are very good numbers at this point in the race); even if Obama ends up down 5% in white vote he still wins easily.

Race: Obama 80% McCain 16% (I don't buy it at all; those are not even Kerry's numbers among AA)

AA are 10% of the sample; this will probably not hold on Tuesday, especially gien the GOTV effort in Philly this cycle. Expect at least 11%; furthermore expect AA ote for Obama in the low to mid 90s. This is good for another 1.5%

Hispanics and "other" should break at least 2/1 for Obama, given recent polling of these groups. Do the math...

AA at 11%; Obama gets 10% and MCain 1%
Hisp/other at 4%; Obama gets 2.67% and McCain 1.33%

Whites at 79% and split 39.5% for each

Other stays at 2%

Undecided...let's be generous and give McCain 3% and Obama 1%

Final total would be

McCain

39.5% White
3% Undecided breaking to McCain
1% Black
1.33% Hisp/Other

Tot: 44.83%

Obama

39.5% White
1% Undecided breaking to McCain
10% Black
2.67% Hisp/Other

Tot: 53.17%

Even if the white vote widened to +5 McCain you still get

Obama 50.67%
McCain 47.33%

____________________

Ryan in MO:

@AlanSnipes

I know we can't base on a rally. But there is a stark difference between this rally and the Kerry rally in Madison. Madison is a college town and leans liberal. Springfield is a smaller collegetown, but in the middle of the bible-belt. Greene county (which Springfield is in went Bush by 17 and 24 percent in 00, and 04. 35k is a big deal here. Not to mention, Sarah Palin was here about a week ago and ended up with about 10k. Also, there is a massive interest among young people here, and even more amazing, I saw a LOT of older people coming out for Obama also. We've got a local commercial running with a 75 year old from Nixa, his family has been pro-gun and gun rights since before he was born. He goes on to say he is voting for Obama. This is huge for this part of the state/country.

____________________

afs:

@political_junki

Re: foxnews/rasmussen virigina poll trends

The fox/rasmussen polls were Oct 5,12, and 26. Just wanted to point out a trend from a repub leaning source.

____________________

RfrancisR:

@Pro-America_Anti-America:

Let go Fox and Marist and the RCP would O+7.1

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

nyt said...
"Ohio's always voted for the winner except for once in 1904"

Might want to check your facts before posting and making a fool of yourself when the facts are presented.

1960 - Ohio voted for Nixon, Kennedy won the EC vote;
1944 - Ohio voted for Dewey, FDR won the EC vote.

The FACT on Ohio is that NO Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. That goes back to the first time a Republican won the White House - Abraham Lincoln in the 1860 election.

For you further information, in 1892, Ohio voted for Harrison, but Cleveland won the White House; in 1884, Ohio voted for Blaine, but Cleveland won the White House.

Oh, and in 1904? T. Roosevelt got 59.75% of the Ohio vote, but 'only' 56.42% of the national vote.

____________________

RfrancisR:

That would be including CNN.

____________________

thoughtful:

Unlike most elections, there will not be any tightening this time out, in fact just the opposite.

If you were a veteran 72 year old Senator, not particularly popular in your own party, with a reputation for being extremely bad tempered and unstable having spent over 5 years as a POW in Vietnam, where you had suffered serious injury and torture.

You pick a young inexperienced Female Governor, a former beauty Queen from far out Alaska as a running mate.

On the day that the Financial Markets suffer one of their biggest crashes in economic history you pronounced despite months of volatility that the economy is fundamentally sound, you then suspend your campaign the following week because the economic situation is so serious, even wanting to postpone the first debate.

My question is what percentage of the National Vote against a high turnout?

Guys McCain wont get to 42% max.

Obama 390+ EVs

____________________

carl29:

@ModerateGuy,

I said it all along, if you are the Democratic candidate, supported by MINORITIES, poor people, the youth, don't count on Mason-Dixon to fairly represent you in their samples. They really are harsh on the Democratic coalition:-(

____________________

jonny87:

@RWCOLE

thought the gap was 7 points. you got a link?

____________________

tjampel:

Sorry I was referring to USA PA poll in my comments above

____________________

tjampel:

SUSA PA polls, rather, sorry

____________________

laguna_b:

@carl29

"*I can't wait to see Hannity's face :-)"

I never watch that idiot but I might dvr him on ED just to catch the pain.....

____________________

afs:

To Virginia posters:

Do you think Wilder's performance as governor was sufficiently positive it could make the populace less hesistant about voting for a black for president?

____________________

mago:

@sotonight

We've lost elections before, we've won elections before and had them stolen from us. We survive.

Calling a black man "boy" is not cool. Obama likes to talk about what unites us is greater than what divides us, but I find this dubious--it seems to me that every day more Republicans reveal themselves to be detestable creeps that I am embarrassed to share the name "American" with.

____________________

Dewey1858:

Nate at 538 has a piece on this set of polls and "house effects" on his site that some folks here might like to read.

____________________

lhtk:

When I first saw that there were a bunch M-D polls, I said to myself (before actually reading what they said), "These are strong R-leaning polls so they probably won't be that good for Obama." I was obviously right, and that was before seeing when these were done: right when there was some minor tightening going on, BEFORE the infomercial. Sadly, will undoubtedly give the Rs more hope. Does anyone know what other polls are coming out today?

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Nearly all the political experts are calling it for Obama except for Bill Kristol who is holding onto to the longshot chance of McCain but admits it is unlikely

____________________

political_junki:

@sotonightthatimightsee:
"I am curious!
What will you all, kool aid drinkers, do if things don't go your way?"

I am curious too what will you do when we have a liberal president, senate congress and also supreme court? Move to Alaska with rest of your skinhead jesusfreak friends and declare independence, hunt moose witch hunt and pray for rain?
ROFLMAO

____________________

Thatcher:

@afs:

To Virginia posters:

Do you think Wilder's performance as governor was sufficiently positive it could make the populace less hesistant about voting for a black for president?

short answer: Yes (I'm not a VA poster - but I lived in and worked on VA campaigns for 3 cycles)

Also, another short answer: so positive that Wilder came back into campaigns recently and is now the Mayor of Richmond, VA


____________________

whitetower:

Evidently most of the posters here are pretty young -- I'm guessing mostly 18-24 year-olds.

Consequently, there is no political memory beyond the 2004 or perhaps the 2000 elections. In those elections, (most of) the polls were basically correct, at least at the very end.

But that wasn't true in, for example, 1980 or 1976.

In 2008, the polls are again all over the place, far outside each others' margins of error, with large numbers of refusals, and large numbers of undecideds.

There is no "science" to this election -- I think many of the youngsters posting here are going to be surprised on Tuesday.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@whitetower

Young or old, I know illogical when I see it.

____________________

carl29:

Catch these numbers on Miami Dade County, Florida:

As to last night 445,498 people have already voted in this county. Guys, keep in mind that in 2004 a TOTAL of 778,953 people voted in Miami Dade. Right now we are already at 57% turnout of those who voted in 2004.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

We have to be careful...Kerry lost Ohio by 120,000 votes. If he would have won Ohio he would be president despite losing the popular vote by 3-4 points nationally.

A 3-4 pt national lead for Obama doesn't ensure an electoral college victory. It's all about the state polls now and how much turnout we can influence.

____________________

douglasdao:

afs:

Please read my entire post. I gave equal time to the national and state polls.

____________________

political_junki:

"whitetower:

Consequently, there is no political memory beyond the 2004 or perhaps the 2000 elections."

You dont have to have lived for example in 1964 to know about it. It is a very complicated concept called : "Reading"

____________________

SoloBJ:

I saw Frank Nuntz on MSNBC today talking about how Obama's lead in Gallup today will decrease slightly to 8 points which is no big deal. What was interesting to me is that he said they haven't found any evidence that there will be a higher turnout for the youth vote compared to 2004.

____________________

mysticlaker:

I can't believe this is the last day of pre-electoin polling before election day. It's getting so exciting.

____________________

jonny87:

@mysticlaker]

ok numbers. not enough AAs. whats the party affiliation situation in VA?

____________________

laguna_b:

If you look at the 538 weighted polling graph, the "surge" is clearly going towards McCain on the same trajectory down as it went up for Obama. Extrapolating that line, assuming Mccain can keep up that momentum, he will win the Prdesidency around December 16th!

So maybe it isn't over on Nov 4. ;)

____________________

political_junki:
____________________

laguna_b:

If the youth do not turn out on ED I say we REALLY run up the deficit, take the money and move to France. Let them deal with it and wonder why they didn't vote now that they can't afford a new iPod.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Virginia is going to be agonizingly close. Looks like Whites have moved towards Mccain since SUSA's last poll, not a good sign.

I can see why Obama is holding his last rally on election eve in Northern Virginia. He needs that area to come out HUGE for him on Tuesday.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

2 positive signs from this poll:

The Dem advantage seems a bit low, and AA turnout is only 17%...unless I'm missing something that can't be right. Way too low...

____________________

political_junki:

Indiana4Obama:
SUSA has changed their Party id by 6! in favor of Republicans. D's only have 2 advantage in the last poll. that seems really off...

____________________

iVote:

That SUSA Virginia poll is a 5 point swing to McCain. Not exactly good news.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

From PPP on the NC Senate race:

"It is pretty clear to me based on our polling this weekend that Kay Hagan will be headed to the US Senate unless something very bizarre happens in the next 72 hours. While numbers in the races for President and Governor are basically unchanged from last week there has been clear movement away from Elizabeth Dole, a sign that her 'Godless Americans' ad is blowing up in her face."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/nc-senate.html

Actually, I don't think it was the 'Godless Americans' ad per se, but the Hagan response to that ad, then the Dole and her acolytes ridiculous responses to the Hagan response.

____________________

laguna_b:

@Indiana4obama
"Virginia is going to be agonizingly close. "

Might be a bit anti-climactic if the election is actually sowed up by 9PM. Be a page 18 story on Nov.6. I hope Ihope

____________________

fed:

AA make up a 21 % in VA

____________________

ModerateGuy:

@Indiana4Obama:
Candidates going to rallies really don't help them that much as the people who attend them are generally die hard supporters.

What does help is the local media coverage, that follows, which will be in the DC area as well as Richmond, and Norfolk if he campaigns in the state.

____________________

Thatcher:

LOL IBD/TIPP (that "reliable" pollster - ROFlMAO) shows a tightening to +2.1 from 4.5%

ROFLMAO

As to WhiteTower (Interesting Nickname ... When I first saw it - I misread the "T" in "Tower" with "P"): I'm 39 ... The first election I started paying attention to was Carter/Ford when I was 7. After watching one of the debates - I told my mother to vote for Carter. I've been active in politics ever since.

I supported Reagan in 80 and 84 (youthful digression)
Was a delegate in the caucuses for Senator Paul Simon in 88 and supported Dukakis
voted 3rd party in 92
Voted Clinton 96
Worked for Gore in 00
Caucused for Dean in 04 - supported Kerry
Caucused for Richardson this year - Wholeheartedly support Obama

I don't have a short memory or short level of experience to draw from. I've run campaigns on the local/state and federal levels. I still do data for consultants around the country for many of the targeted races at all levels this year.

____________________

political_junki:

"iVote:
That SUSA Virginia poll is a 5 point swing to McCain. Not exactly good news."

Yes, but they have a 6 point swing in party id and Obama is still 50%. I'd guess you can look at this SUSA poll as worst case scenario

____________________

johncoz:

@whitetower

If only! Unfortunatley my active political memory goes back to when Kennedy was shot (I was in the shower).

There is something big happening here, which is carrying people everywhere -- young and old, black and white -- with it in a nervous excitement that will not be assuaged until the ballots are actually counted.

But at this moment the data is clear. It's over.

McCain needs to put in some serious work on his concession speech; it will be his last chance to redeem himself from a grubby campaign that has dishonoured both him and his supporters.

____________________

laguna_b:

I find it fascinating that polling agencies would manipulate thier mix to get the result they want instead of the truth. One would think that thier brand would be more important to them. There should be a consumers report rating them after this is all over. Perhaps poll junkies like 538, pollster.com and RCP will do a post mortem analysis.....and save it for 2 years next.

____________________

jonny87:

@political_junki.....or anyone else

whats the actual party registration numbers in VA

____________________

Thatcher:

@jonny87 -

VA doesn't register by party

____________________

NW Patrick:

So I'm confused. HOw does McCain win losing CO FL PA NV and VA? Mason Dixon OVERSTATED Bush support in every Battle Ground poll in '04.
Feelin' good!

____________________

political_junki:

jonny87:
"whats the actual party registration numbers in VA"

I couldnt find an exact number but different pollsters (except the last SUSA) have it between 5-9. Considering D+2 in last one, it is a descent result

____________________

RossPhx:

One reason for McCain's focus on Pennsylvania is that it is one of the largest without an early-voting tradition. That means the state might be won with a combination of bad weather, long lines at the polls, and last-minute skullduggery. More likely, though, the margin for Obama will be single, not double digits. I'll take 51%; I'm not sure why everyone else here won't.

____________________

jonny87:

@Thatcher

cheers

04 exits 39 R 35 D.

Dems have added a lot of new voters but affiliation advantage likely to be less than high single digits. should be enough though.

____________________

Terranus:

McCain really thinks he can turn PA around. Massive activities there now, robocalls etc.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"sotonightthatimightsee:
I am curious! What will you all, kool aid drinkers, do if things don't go your way? Will you move to Canada? Get off this site for good, perhaps lol?"

Well it is a polling site...and all the polls show that Obama is ahead in enough states to win the election. Even M-D...even TIPP, even GWU, and especially Rasmussen. It's only those who believe that somehow there will be a miracle and ALL the polls are erroneous that would be "drinking the Kool Aid". Just who is "Rev. Jim Jones" irrational, here?

Maybe you should establish a new little camp of Palin supporters down in Guyana? I've heard land there is cheap...and you might be able to see Venezuela from your veranda.

Oh, and make sure you don't have internet...that way you won't have to look at these vexing polls that survey "real Americans" by the hundreds of thousands.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

whitetower,

My political memory goes back to the 1956 conventions (fuzzy, but I still remember both).

My Democratic leanings were probably forever set on November 22, 1963, when the teacher in my 7th grade class received a phone call from his wife that President Kennedy had been shot. Even before we knew he had died, the girl behind me, as the class sat in stunned disbelief, stated "Ha ha, I'm a Republican, and I don't care" loud enough for the entire class to hear.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Pazienza- You do realize that the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review is owned by Richard Mellon Scaife. His endorsement of John McCain is about as expected as that of the National Review. This is the guy that surrepticiously funded nearly a hundred Young and College Republican newspapers...that gave us the likes of Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, and Michelle Malkin.

____________________

TheLioness:

As a white, (yes race is a huge factor here, do not kid yourself) Virginia household, neither I or my partner are anywhere near convinced our man Obama has Virginia locked up. I take the BEST poll numbers for VA and halve them, partly because we're not an early vote state, I have voted in Richmond in NON-hotly contested election years and had to wait far too long in line, and I just know that this year there are going to be 10-hour waits in the poor and minority precincts where people HAVE to go to work or risk their jobs(you have to show that you're "on the job" 11 of the 13 hours our polls are open before you can absentee or early vote) or can't afford a sitter for that many hours etc. Don't forget, the NAACP feels the situation is critical enough to have sued our democratic governor (Republican elections board) to have the Feds take over the running of the election here with an eye towards moving machines around to those areas that are notoriously bad for poor and minority voters.

We'll be doing our part at the Obama Charlottesville Call center this evening. Nobody here is letting up one tiny bit. If you live in a state that has traditionally gone republican, do not pretend to yourself that any number below 10+ is a good one. Keep pressing, hard, until the polls close. We don't want to "squeek" by, we want a landslide.

____________________

Thatcher:

Gallup:

RV O+11 (nc)
LVT O+8 (-2)
LVE O+9 (-1)

Easily within rounding issues ... no worries

____________________

thoughtful:

WhiteTower

This is a Turnout thing. On a low turnout, we will all be very surprised is McCain's only hope of winning.

From the evidence so far Turnout particularly in the battleground states look to be very big indeed.

In those circumstances, McCain loses big. Obama landslide.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"SoloBJ:What was interesting to me is that he said they haven't found any evidence that there will be a higher turnout for the youth vote compared to 2004."

Well, that's an interesting comment...given that youth registration is WAY UP, that the early voting statistics show that youth voting is WAY UP over early voting EVER, and that volunteer participation by young voters is way up.

So sometimes you find can find "no evidence" by not looking...or chosing to look the other way.

Or you can select your "measurement" by using odd statistics.

For example, Youth voting increased by some 30% in 2004 over 2000. But their % in terms of other age groups remained steady simply because the other age groups turned out en masse as well (this is a bit biased since most pollsters include fewer actual years and potential voters into the youth "class" e.g. 18-19 vs. 30-45, 45-60, etc.).

So while the numbers and % vs. earlier were much higher...proportionately they merely kept the same influence they had in 2000. In addition, many of those were young evangelicals urned out by their churches to vote for a guy that the Republican right were suggesting was "their messiah".

But most, on average, appear to have voted for Kerry. Switching that around...if young Democratic voters had turned out in 2000 like they did in 2004 Gore would have won by about 5%.

So the question is...how is the youth vote turnout being measured. If all age groups turnout massively, young voters might not have any more of a "proportionate" difference...but they will certainly have an influence. And if they keep up wiyth the registration rates they should continue that 30% increase they did in 2004. That will bring their cohort right up to all age groups in terms of participation levels...no longer will young voters be "the apathetic" class.


____________________

CALISCHOLAR:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED...

considering OBAMA begins with all the states KERRY won, but gives MCCAIN Pennsylvania & New Hampshire (Kerry states)


he can then LOSE NC, OH, MO, NV, FL, as well as PA and NH....


BUT still win VIRGINA, INDIANA, COLORADO & NEW MEXICO


and OBAMA still wins 272-266 !!!!


and thats OBAMA's worse case scenario...


this election is a wrap !


____________________

Dan:

I won't believe it is a wrap until Nov. 5. Look at those polling numbers! PA and VA are getting closer, and I see don't see Obama winning IN, MO, or NC. OH and FL are still up in the air. If Obama loses PA, still not likely, he would be in trouble. Yes, he can win without PA, but it would much more difficult. Now we see why McCain has been campaigning so heavily there.

____________________

afs:

This map from NYT makes it pretty clear:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html

If he loses all the toss-ups which is certainly possible, and PA (21 EV) as well, he has to take Va and Nv.

____________________

JedRothwell:

Regarding PA, Pat wrote:

"Are they detecting late movement to McCain or just being cautious?"

Just making sure, I think. As they should. PA is the one state they cannot afford to lose; PA plus one other small state is the only way McCain can win.

The Obama campaign will go full throttle to the last hour. They have dispatched large numbers of people, including my daughter, from New York every weekend, today as well.

____________________

Observer:

@carl29 said: "Get this guys,

Illinois, Obama 60% McCain 38%, Obama +22%

Arizona, McCain 51 McCain 46%, McCain +5%"

Says to me that they will both win their home states but that Obama will waste a lot more votes in doing so. When you add in the big Obama margins likely in CA, NY and a few other places Obama is likely to get a lot of surplus votes in places that will not win him any more Electoral Votes.

If McCain wins PA and most of the Battleground states he could be the second successive Rep President to win with a minority of the popular vote. I support McCain but if that happens I think the system should be changed.

____________________

colorado resident:

If you don't know about what Palin has done in Alaska, you really should read this
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/09/04/a-letter-about-sarah-palin-from-anne-kilkenny/

The republican ticket is way too dangerous!

____________________

MaxMBJ:

The fear here is palpable. Wait a second while I run out to the kitchen to get a knife to cut it with.

...

(Slice) Here's a slice of false bravado. Who wants it?

(Slice) Here's a slice of cherry picking polls. Oops! It's gone!

(Slice) Here's some fresh-baked snark. You may grab it and throw it at me. I'm used to it.

____________________

afs:

So what impact do people think the airing of Rev Wright ads today by the Republicans in Pa, Ohio and Florida will have?

____________________

icantstandit:

@ tom brady

I think we're all nervous, in spite of Obama's lead, because we're aware of how unethical and dishonest the Republicans are prepared to be in order to win. We want a landslide, just in case. And to send a message. We remember 2000 and 2004 way too well!

____________________



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