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NBC/MasonDixon: MT, NH, NC (10/23-25)

Topics: PHome

NBC / Mason-Dixon
10/23-25/08; 625 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

New Hampshire
Obama 50, McCain 39

North Carolina
Obama 47, McCain 47

Montana
McCain 48, Obama 44

 

Comments
Trosen:

Pretty encouraging #s for an MD poll. NC will be right down to the wire.

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DTM:

Anyone know if that Montana poll included third parties?

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Trosen:

Oh.. and the requisite pollster typo. The headline says NJ instead of NC.

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NHBlue:

Looks like NH is done giving McCain comeback chances.

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NW Patrick:

WHY 2008 is N O T 2004. (As I've been saying all along.)

"Looking at polling results from the final days of the 2004 campaign paints a very different picture: With only three exceptions, Bush held the lead in 22 out of 25 polls going into election day. Those leads, which averaged 2.23% for Bush, very closely mirrored the final election outcome: a 2.45% margin of victory."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-sinker/why-2008-is-not-2004-redu_b_138232.html

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Washingtonian1:

I wish they would include the internals and information on those who voted already (as SurveyUSA does)

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Dewey1858:

Newsflash: McCain campaign outlines new "pathway to victory" as candidate vows to hold his breath until more Pennsylvanians agree to vote for him.

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carl29:

NHBlue,

The McCain who won NH twice is not the same person running for president right now. The people of NH can tell the difference.

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burrito:

@Trosen:

"Oh.. and the requisite pollster typo. The headline says NJ instead of NC."

As well as yours (from your first comment) ...

"Pretty encouraging #s for an MD poll. NC will be right down to the wire."

as it is Montana (MT) not Maryland (MD) ... )))

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GriffStep:

@burrito

Surely "MD" referred to "Mason-Dixon".

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OneAngryDwarf:

DAMMIT!!!

Now I'm going to have to stay up late on Wednesday.

Daily Show!!!t

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JCK:

If Obama wins Kerry - PA + VA + IA + NM + CO + NV, McCain still loses 270-268.

If Obama is leading by 10 in NV, it's game, set, and match for McCain, even under his favorable scenario.

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zombieflanders:

@burrito

MD=Mason-Dixon, not Maryland

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Thatcher:

LOL and "McCain will be interviewed on CNN's "Larry King Live."" (a.k.a. Where old people go to 'fade away')

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Trosen:

Excellent article.. Also had this good link.. which basically says the 2004 polls, when averaged together, we're pretty much right on.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm#Pollster

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NW Patrick:

JCK if Obama wins VA, IA, NM, CO, NV, and all Kerry states is WAY over 270. Do the math:)

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kerrchdavis:

I just made my final donation to the Obama campaign. I would suggest you all do the same.

Lets get this thing done!

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DecaturMark:

NW

JCK subtracted PA from Kerry- he math is correct

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OneAngryDwarf:

McCain is leaking votes (and other stuff) in too many states to reasonably defend or steal. Someone at the Obama camp needs to send Howard Dean a nice thank you letter for his "50 State Strategy."

Howard Dean

Finally a Democratic strategy that works against Karl Rove politics. Who would have thought that going big instead of going small was the answer. Make the GOP defend so many places that they can't possibly cheat in all of them and that is how you win.

Brilliant.

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JCK:

NW,

Read my post. I'm assuming, for McCain's sake, that Obama loses PA, based on the MCCAIN SURGE that's happening there.

In that scenario (which is very unlikely), NV becomes the swing state.

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kerrchdavis:

@NW

I think he means MINUS PA. So, even if McCain wins PA, if Obama picks up Nevada, he still loses.

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mago:

The NC number is actually a slight improvement over PPP's recent O +1, since PPP has a D house effect and M-D has an R house effect.

I have a friend who chose to vote at her school location (MN) rather than vote absentee in MT because she thought her vote would matter more here. That's looking very unlikley at the Presidential level, though her vote for Franken will be most welcome.

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PostModernProphet:

With the lions share of attention being paid to every poll under the sun, I think that some rather interesting perspective can be gleaned by paying attention to another source of predictive indexes.

For those of you not familiar with the "Iowa Electronic Markets", I STRONGLY suggest checking them out. The Iowa Electronic Markets have been FAR more accurate in predicting the outcome of political events than the majority of polls....and the IEM shows an OVERWHELMING majority of the action on Barack Obama becoming our next President. The IEM breaks down the Presidential race into "Winner Take All" and "Voteshare".

As of 2:30pm EST the current market prediction on Barack Obama is 55.4% of the popular vote, and an overwhelming price of 87.8 cents on the dollar for every "winner take all" contract. In addition to the IEM, another very telling market lies within the realm of the Offshore Sportsbook industry.

Two weeks ago the price breakdown at Five Dimes on the Presidential race was as follows:

Obama -500
McCain +375

Today the price breakdown is:

Obama -1050
McCain +675

Based on a moneyline to % conversion, the current price breakdown suggests that the Offshore market predicts Obama as a 91.3% favorite to win this election. Advanced statistical analysis, comprehensive polling techniques, and intricate analysis of polls are all worthwhile....but nothing speaks more powerfully than money. The market has been absolutely FLOODED by LARGE sums of money POURING in on OBama.....and a lot of the Offshore books are no longer accepting any more wagers on the election...and it has been reported that some Offshore books have already begun paying off some OBama wagers placed when the price was far less than it is now.

This thing isn't over....but the reports of a McCain surge are greatly over stated. For all of you nervous, up-tight Democrats...check out the Iowa Electronic Markets and some of the Offshore Sportsbook prices and you will start to feel better.

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PostModernProphet:

With the lions share of attention being paid to every poll under the sun, I think that some rather interesting perspective can be gleaned by paying attention to another source of predictive indexes. For those of you not familiar with the "Iowa Electronic Markets", I STRONGLY suggest checking them out. The Iowa Electronic Markets have been FAR more accurate in predicting the outcome of political events than the majority of polls....and the IEM shows an OVERWHELMING majority of the action on Barack Obama becoming our next President. The IEM breaks down the Presidential race into "Winner Take All" and "Voteshare".

As of 2:30pm EST the current market prediction on Barack Obama is 55.4% of the popular vote, and an overwhelming price of 87.8 cents on the dollar for every "winner take all" contract. In addition to the IEM, another very telling market lies within the realm of the Offshore Sportsbook industry.

Two weeks ago the price breakdown at Five Dimes on the Presidential race was as follows:

Obama -500
McCain +375

Today the price breakdown is:

Obama -1050
McCain +675

Based on a moneyline to % conversion, the current price breakdown suggests that the Offshore market predicts Obama as a 91.3% favorite to win this election. Advanced statistical analysis, comprehensive polling techniques, and intricate analysis of polls are all worthwhile....but nothing speaks more powerfully than money. The market has been absolutely FLOODED by LARGE sums of money POURING in on OBama.....and a lot of the Offshore books are no longer accepting any more wagers on the election...and it has been reported that some Offshore books have already begun paying off some OBama wagers placed when the price was far less than it is now.

This thing isn't over....but the reports of a McCain surge are greatly over stated. For all of you nervous, up-tight Democrats...check out the Iowa Electronic Markets and some of the Offshore Sportsbook prices and you will start to feel better.

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NW Patrick:

This whole LOSING PA thing is a PIPE DREAM folks. Why do we even give it merit?

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fox:

Fox News/Drudge are all over this right?

SHOCK
"MCCAIN CANCELS RALLY, LEAVING SUPPORTERS (LITERALLY) OUT IN THE RAIN"
"IS HE GIVING UP? MCCAIN DITCHES RALLY, WHEREABOUTS UNKNOWN"
"READY TO LEAD (ON SUNNY DAYS): CRYBABY MCCAIN, AFRAID TO GET WET, SNUBS BACKERS"

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JCK:

NW Patrick,

I'm just pointing out that McCain can't win even under pipedream scenarios. That's how much of a longshot a McCain victory is.

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NW Patrick:

I'm continually amazed by this campaign. Think about it, take a step back. We have a 1/2 black candidate, a popular 26 year Senator, a supposed Bradley Effect (I don't believe it), and a man with an unusual name, middle name especially, will be the next president of the United States. I've never seen the world so engaged in US politics. People are really concerned the GOP stay in power, the WORLD is pulling for Obama.

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zen:
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Dan:

Patrick,

In many of the polls, Bus excelled in the last week. SUSA, Gallup, ARG, and Zogby (gag) had Kerry winning a week before the election and Bush surging into election day. Not that I expect the same to happen here. Rasmussen had Bush winning early, and continuing through to November.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@fox

Dude the GOP (and America for that matter) doesn't want McCain going out in the rain. He could get sick, he could get pneumonia, he could die!

Then we could end up with Sarah Palin as POTUS and lord knows even Joe Lieberman is thanking his diety that she doesn't have to be ready on day one.

I'm all for keeping the (very) old dude out of the rain and snow. I know Obama is probably going to win but lets not take any chances here.

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mrzookie:

RAS will be publishing PA and NV numbers later today (along with MS and AR). I suspect PA will show Obama ahead by a high single digit (7-9)which will just about seal the deal. It'll also be interesting to see how the NV numbers compare to the Suffolk Poll released earlier. What's really driving me nuts is the lack of info from NM. There hasn't been anything out of there in at least a couple of weeks. Does anyone know of anything coming out?

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NW Patrick:

Dan, 4 polls had Kerry winning by about 1% and another 15 or so had Bush winning. EVERY SINGLE POLLSTER IS SHOWING OBAMA WINNING. What's your point again?

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orange24:

Wow, there's just no good news for McCranky today!

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boomshak:

These state polls are lagging the big moves nationally by McCain.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@NWPatrick

Bet on the world

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Trosen:

Obama can lose every toss up state AND PA and still win. (Per pollster's map). Actually.. he could lose every "yellow" state and somehow lose PA AND VA and still win!


Ok.. more "realistic." Let's say Obama holds PA (likely) but loses OH (possible). Obama could still let VA slip away AND CO and STILL WIN!! I am trying very hard to give the trolls the benefit of the doubt and find a somewhat likely path for McCain to 270.. but I'm not seeing it.

Ok.. how about this.

- McCain wins every state where he's solidly ahead or leaning his way (likely)

- McCain wrests back Ohio (plausible)

- McCain wins EVERY toss up state (fairly unlikely)

- McCain wrests back Virginia (I'll say fairly unlikely, but possible)

Ok.. great.. now he's chipped Obama's EV count down to 283. Now what?


Let's say he... somehow swings back Colorado (pretty unlikely) Ok.. now Obama's down to 274

Now what? NH? (extremely unlikely) Now we're at a 269 tie. Tie goes to Obama.

How about.. NM? (I'd say damn near impossible, especially in light of the fact that McCain has more or less pulled up stakes there)

Where else?? MN? IA? WI? MI???

Now you see why McCain is gonna ride PA into the ground, hoping for a miracle. But the PA Hail Mary aside.. Add up all these "unlikelies," "very unlikelies" and "damn near impossibles," assume they ALL happen...and where are you.. basically, tied.

Help me out here trolls. Where's the path to 270?

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Pat:

@kerrchdavis:

I just made another donation to Obama. let's finish this.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak PIPE DREAM. They are taken RECENTLY, just like some National polls. So hmmm... they interview 1000 people SPECIFICALLY in that state... but the "National" #'s are closer so those interviews are lagging? You are so ridiculous. Yesterday you said you had better things to do than hang out with the BOONBATS. GO DO IT THEN.

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GoodRiddensW:

New InAd poll from GA: M +1 (previous O +1). It's a real race down there - and maybe a chance to 60 in the Senate as well.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

and yet, not a single state poll reacted when McCain "surged" last week and the week before and the week before.

Face it, trackers naturally tighten at the start of the week and widen towards the end. This trend has been very consistent. State polls have ZERO good news for McCain.

But, if it makes you feel better, keep drinking the boomaid.

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boomshak:

A GLORIOUS TURN OF EVENTS:

Rasmussen Reports 10/25 - 10/27 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/25 - 10/27 2448 LV 2.0 49 47 Obama +2
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/25 - 10/27 1202 LV 2.9 49 45 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 10/21 - 10/27 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
IBD/TIPP 10/22 - 10/26 886 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3

3 polls within the MOE! Zogby and Rasmussen go MOE tomorrow? That will be 5 polls within the MOE a week before the election. Amazing considering the total BJ Obama enjoys from the press.

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mysticlaker:

@boom.

The moves are in the south and with republicans....They are coming home again. And then they will soften again after Obama's speech, and then they will come home again on Nov 5th, and Obama wins plus 5....


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hou04:

Take a look at the headlines from the people that bring us the IBD/TIPP poll...

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/


Just reading their headlines explains their poll, too, and what their agenda is.

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boomshak:

McCain is only down 4 in latest Rasmussen CO and that was done before the recent surge.

McCain is gonna win this! Obama gets to slink back to the Senate where he will become the most hated man in the Democrat Party.

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zotz:

NW Patrick-
McCain's last hope is that the people of PA are too racist to vote for Obama.
Pathetic!

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Connor:

boomshat:

...

...

HAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

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kerrchdavis:

roflmao! Obama is ONLY down 4 in one of the most conservative estimates of his lead in Colorado.

What a joke. 7 days guys!

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orange24:

McCain is gonna win this! Obama gets to slink back to the Senate where he will become the most hated man in the Democrat Party.

Go put your money on InTrade then. You'll make a fortune backing that rickety old horse.

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boomshak:

I have news for you nutty Obamunists.

McCain is gonna win this.

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Connor:

hou04:

But Karl Rove said they were the bestest pollsters ever!

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ctj:

New In/Adv poll Georgia- McCain- 48, Obama 47?
Can this possibly be accurate? I don't know anything about In/Adv. Where do they rank on the polling meter in terms of accuracy? Thoughts?

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thisniss:

Polling even in NC right now is awesome. Roughly 20% of NC's registered voters have already voted, and based on polling and party ID, Obama is looking at easily a 25% lead.

The more votes he banks before 11/4, the less room there is for McCain to make a come back. If they poll even on election day - or even if Obama keeps McCain's lead under, say, 5% - Obama wins on Early Votes.

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Trosen:

boom.. put your $$ where your mouth is? *cue the crickets*

Anyway.. pity my good in-depth EC analysis is beign ignored.. =/

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chgo1:
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boomshak:

ctj:

Insider Advantage ALWAYS leans far left. I wouldn't trust them.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak you are one of the most STUPID bloggers I have ever seen in my life. McCain's gonna win this based on WHAT? ROFL Give me ONE state poll result that shows a clear path. ONE! Cmon' windbag.

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Weavermiami:

TROSEN, are all the monthly calls made???

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hou04:

IBD/TIPP

Obama +4 (48/44)

Leading even in the most right-wing poll.

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NW Patrick:

Boom we will see later what RAS has to say about NV:) I'm sure he sucks too.

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Trosen:

Weavermiami:
"TROSEN, are all the monthly calls made???"

Yes the are.. enjoying your day off.. lurker?

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OneAngryDwarf:

Never trust your eyes, or the mountain of damning data and evidence.

boomshak

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Atomique:

boomshak, put your money where your mouth is. If you really think Obama is going to lose, you owe it to yourself to put all your money into McCain stock on Intrade.

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NW Patrick:

Wow isn't that IBD +1 Obama then? SURGE! ROFL This is fun.

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sunnymi:
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whoshotsam:

OBAMA SURGE!!!! in the IBD/TIPP poll. OMG!!!!

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Oh no the most accurate pollster of 2004 shows Obama surging! Seriously though they suck but they were the best poll around when they had it 2.8 Obama according to some trolls.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Guys quit calling out boompauper to put money on Intrade. Do you know what a pizza delivery guy makes? It is hardly the sort of money that can be squandered on betting.

How would he continue to pay rent on his trailor without that money?

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Dewey1858:

"Obama's biggest lead in seven days." - so sayeth IBD/TIPP

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hou04:

@ NW Patrick

Yep... watch obama go + 1 or 2 up tomorrow in GWU/Battleground, since these are the same people that publish this poll, too.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@OneAngryDwarf

He talks like a true believer but when it comes to money it's all hollow confidence.

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carl29:

Don't tell me that the Drudge doesn't have IBD/TIPP numbers up? :-)

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Trosen:

sunny.. I started laughing too hard when Davis said "Watch California closely" Ahh.. classic!!

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fed:

@ CTJ

These are the early voting numbers in GA, it is obvious that IA's poll could be accurate
1,056,352
Race

White
61.0%
Black
35.1%
Other/Unk
2.6%
Sex

Men
41.2%
Women
55.9%
Unk
1.6%
Ballot

Absentee
14.8%
In-person
85.2%
31.8

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C.S.Strowbridge:

If Obama wins all of the states where Pollster has him rated strong or better, and only the states Pollster has him at strong or better, he will win the White House.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

These state polls are lagging the big moves nationally by McCain

I'm laughing at you because the national polls have fluctuated between 4 and 5 points and McCain trails by double digits and as little as 8 points in many of the battleground polls.

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NW Patrick:

Boom "Never trust your eyes, or the mountain of damning data and evidence." As I stole from another here. LOL SURGE!

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ctj:

Thanks boom. Will anyone else weigh in on this? In/Adv Georgia- Statistical tie. In my view unbelievable, but if true McCain is absolutely done.

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Trosen:

Ok.. it gets better.. he just said that CT is in play because of Lieberman.. it's too much. Better than South Park.

Ok.. so.. is boomshak actually Rick Davis or Matt Drudge? I can't decide.

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truebljb1:

Exactly how is a 1 point move in a poll with only 400 voters/day a surge. A 3 point move in Rasmussen and Gallup that have 1000 voters/day is a surge.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@NW Patrick

Where is your citation? If you are going to ape someone you need to cite your source.

:-)

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fed:

LOL..... now S Palin wants to take Stevens seat in the Senate

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truebljb1:

That...and the market is up 600 points today.

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zen:


@Boomshack,

state surveys coming out today are as recent as daily tracking polls.
Looks like Maccain gets voters only in already red states... no swing state voters are going to Maccain even the national poll is little bit tightening.... So Obama will win like JFK.

P*S* JFK won popular vote less than one percent and got 301 EV...very ecomomical victory.

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hou04:

The biggest surprise of this election will be GEORGIA.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Ive offered boomy woomy 5 to 1 on the old man. He refused.

But it got me wondering...

boomy's initials are bs - - that is clearly his own subconscious trying to tell him and us something.

Listen to his name - he is bs, and you need not bother reading further.

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angrytoxicologist:

@ Trosen

You've got the right approach; instead of worrying about Obama-Biden try to put a senario for McCain Palin that sounds reasonable. Another way to do this is to use the pollster list that comes with the morning update and see how far up the list into blue territory McCain would have to go to get 270.

As I've said before, McCain is killing the Rs here; he needs to go Dole and help out the senate races that are close like the RNC wants him to.

Of course, such RNC hate may actually make McCain into an actual maverick again once he's back in the Senate.

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DecaturMark:

@Trosen:

Talk about false advertising. That power point presentation is a bait and switch con. If I donated to the McCain campaign based on that presentation and see what they ran, I would demand my money back!

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

I think someone needs to take their medication. The numbers in the trackers look almost identical to yesterday, except for slight bits of movement towards McCain in Gallup, and some (also slight) movement towards Obama in Tipp. Oh and that 15-16 point Pew poll of course. Heh. Almost all of the state data appears amazing for Obama. And less than a week to go.

It would be nice if a certain boomshak would wait to gloat until we have ONE DAY (just one!) where all of the trackers show movement to McCain, or one day with really favorable state polls for him across the board, or even a day where a single pollster gives McCain any kind of a lead - even a tenth of a point - but alas... its GloatCity, all the time, no matter what the facts may be.

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jamesia:

hou04:

I know right? Have you seen IBD's website? That's an intense propaganda machine they have there...

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Dewey1858:

@truebljb1:
Exactly how is a 1 point move in a poll with only 400 voters/day a surge. A 3 point move in Rasmussen and Gallup that have 1000 voters/day is a surge.

NEITHER is a surge - that's the point.

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angrytoxicologist:

Until I see Morning Call show some movement, talk about PA is just that, talk.

I'm not saying the Morning Call # is right on, but it would at least move with the trend. Oh yeah, and it's not!

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

*****************************************************************
NEW E-MAIL FROM ROMNEY
*****************************************************************

(McConnell's) opponent was handpicked by Chuck Schumer and will be a reliable vote for the Democrats. And as we face the very real possibility of an Obama presidency, that's the last thing we need.

It's more critical than ever that we have a strong Republican leader to act as a "firewall" against bad legislation, tax increases, and increased spending.


LMFAO - Romney conceeds Pres. election.

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boomshak:

Dow up 600 points as McCain surges!

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boomshak:

@jamesia:

lol, the IBD poll is confirmed by GWU, Gallup and Zogby.

And you are the guy that wants us to accept the DailyKos Poll?

TIPP is a well-known and respected pollster.

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Trosen:

What's painfully clear from Davis's little power point there, is that the grand plan was to turn a bunch of disgruntled Hillary voters and the red states would "take care of themselves." Brilliant strategy there..

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

truebljb1:
"Exactly how is a 1 point move in a poll with only 400 voters/day a surge. A 3 point move in Rasmussen and Gallup that have 1000 voters/day is a surge."

You types never get that a "3 point move" isn't a surge unless it's maintained and extended. Otherwise, its just noise.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Down surges as Senator Stevens awaits sentencing.

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boomshak:

Dow up 600, gas below $2 a gallon. Both bad news for Obama.

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truebljb1:

Rasmussen Pensylvania Obama 53-46 (6 point gain in two weeks for McCain...still a ways to go)

Nevada Obama 50-46

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Palin still on the campaign trail. Bad news for McCain.

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DecaturMark:

@boomshak:
"Dow up 600, gas below $2 a gallon. Both bad news for Obama."

I thought the Republicans wanted to Drill baby drill because of the high gas prices. Since the prices are down, I guess drilling isn't the answer. Or did we drill massively in the last two months that no one is aware of?

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thoughtful:

When you look at it pollster to pollster on the national level over the period of time the polls have been amazingly stable.

for over a month Obama has been between 50 and 52% with Rasmussen. That's is just amazing.

When we look at the state polls take the PA tracker same thing.

Occasionally there will be flux or noise. but anyway you slice it or dice it. McCain hasn't shown above 46% in any poll for 7 or 8 weeks nationally.

Every time you look at it, it is impossible to see a route for him to take other than the forlorn one which he has been trying PA!

the boom can't even see McCain winning NC!

No more happy mornings for John McCain.

Obama 390+EVs

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laguna_b:

"What exactly does a Senator do?" - Palin

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boomshak:

IBD move of +1.2 to Obama today is likely noise. Total flop on male voters and catholic voters to Obama in one day.

Noise.

This is about a 3 point race right now.

MOE baby!

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sunnymi:


Rasmussen State Polls

Nevada
Obama - 50%
McCain - 46%

Pennsylvania
Obama - 53%
McCain - 46%

Arkansas
Obama - 44%
McCain - 54%

Mississippi
Obama - 45
McCain - 53

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Nhoj:

gas isnt below 2 dollars in most places yet boom.

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boomshak:

FoxNews Reporting:

"Internal Polling of both camps is showing PA much closer than the public polls. That's why Obama is still spending so much time there..."

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NextAmericanChapter:

@ hou04:
"The biggest surprise of this election will be GEORGIA."

You're absolutely right...Republicans are not organized there at all and the AA turnout is off the charts. Montana is another possible shocker to everyone except the freakishly genius Obama campaign.

____________________

byronicgyro:

@Dewey1858:

"Newsflash: McCain campaign outlines new "pathway to victory" as candidate vows to hold his breath until more Pennsylvanians agree to vote for him."

The problem with that plan is even McCain would turn blue = )

____________________

I don't believe that the average American thinks that Obama is a socialist.

But what's wrong with socialism anyway? Capitalism is obviously debunked. Right here in the great state of Nevada we are in a capitalism induced depression. The private sector job market is kaput and the housing market is in a free fall.

The best paying and best benefited jobs in our state are jobs provided by the government. Roads work, viaduct and reservoir construction, schools construction, bridge rehabilitation, etc. So, why not expand that even more? It's very clear to a lot of us that capitalism is irrelevant. You know you can only keep trying to prove a theory so many times before you gotta try something else.

So for you hardcore McCainiacs, this is something you won't understand. The average American doesn't believe that Obama is a socialist and even if they did, at this point they probably wouldn't even care.

McCain is not going to win when 7 days before the election, this is the news:

Consumer confidence plunges to lowest on record

Tuesday October 28, 2:08 pm ET
By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer

Consumer confidence plunges to lowest on record in wake of financial turmoil, layoffs

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Layoffs, plunging home prices and tumbling investments have pushed consumer pessimism to record levels in October, a private research group said Tuesday. Wall Street shook it off, though, focusing instead on higher global markets amid optimism the Federal Reserve will ease interest rates further.

The Conference Board said the consumer confidence index fell to 38, down from a revised 61.4 in September and significantly below analysts' expectations of 52.

That's the lowest level for the index since the Conference Board began tracking consumer sentiment in 1967, and the third-steepest drop. A year ago, the index stood at 95.2.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081028/meltdown_economy.html

/manifesto...

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Mississippi ?

Is Obama ahead in Mississippi?

____________________

Thatcher:

PA and NV still looking good for Obama!

____________________

mac_1103:

SUSA, Gallup, ARG, and Zogby (gag) had Kerry winning a week before the election and Bush surging into election day.

Where do you get this? That's not what it says in the RCP archives.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

truebljb1

If it took him 2 weeks to make up 6 points how is he gonna make up 7 points in 6 days?

____________________

Inkan1969:

@boomshak

NOW a 1% move is noise....

Rasmussen:

There's a seven point difference. But Obama has a commanding 53% lead. And only 1% undecided/other. McCain has no more room to move.

A good hold for Nevada. It looks like Obama will succeed in holding McCain down to a lead of less than 10% in Mississippi. And even Arkansas might go below 10% as well.

____________________

carl29:

Imagine, Fox citing "close sources" and I believing them? :-)!!!!

____________________

OGLiberal:

Rasmussen State Polls:

Nevada
O - 50
M - 46

Pennsylvania
0 - 53
M - 46

Arkansa
M - 54
O - 44

Mississippi

M - 53
O - 45

For those who will say, "Obama is only up 7 in PA!", I will note a) that he's polling at 53, which is only 1pt lower than his Rasmussen high in that state (54, he hit that on 10/6), and b) does that also mean that Obama can win Mississippi, where he trails McCain by basically the same margin McCain trails Obama in PA?


@boomshak

Nate Silver's analysis of TIPP (an org I never heard of before they started their tracker this year, a tracker commissioned by IBD, which is a right wing/conservative publication):

"IBD/TIPP touts itself as the most accurate pollster based on its strong result in 2004, when they nailed the Bush-Kerry numbers within a couple of tenths of a point. One good result does not a pollster make, however, and in 2000, their performance was only average, missing the Bush-Gore margin by 2.5 points. Results were slightly erratic and counterintuitive earlier this year, when for instance they showed an 11-point Obama lead in mid-May when most other pollsters showed him struggling at that time."

____________________

It's cute how boomshak thinks a day on the stock market translates into the biggest comeback in political history.

____________________

Thatcher:

During the entire month of October 2004 - Bush was never over 49.5 and Kerry was never below 43.5 on RCP's averages.

However, in October 2008 - Obama has never been below 48.8 and McCain has never been above 44.1 on RCP's averages.

____________________

The_Huntsman:

I think McCain supporters will be VERY alarmed on Nov 4th when the polls close in NC and GA but the networks are unable to immediately call the races.

____________________

Thatcher:

Also - Kerry's average was never above 47.5 in RCP's averages

____________________

thoughtful:

Please note Georgia has now moved on the Pollster.com map to toss up!

The McCain surge

____________________

Trosen:

boomshak:
"Dow up 600, gas below $2 a gallon. Both bad news for Obama."

Where the hell is gas >$2 a gallon? Sure as sh*t not anywhere near where I live..

Look, I know you're a professional b.s. artist but sometimes the lies are just downright stupid.

____________________

sunnymi:

"Internal Polling of both camps is showing PA much closer than the public polls. That's why Obama is still spending so much time there..."

Right....Like he went there once yesterday in over 10 days and probably will be there one more time at best before the election....McPalin are pretty much living there....may be they like the food there or something like that :-)

____________________

carl29:

It doesn't take a genious to know what McCain is betting on in PA: Racist voters, bradley effect, people who refused to answer the phone to pollsters!!! Do I need to have any insider knowledge? LOL :-)

____________________

Tarheel119:

Boom,

One day of the market actually going up is not a sign that the economy is great again. You have increased lay-offs, home prices dropping, consumer confidence down. These are things that are on the minds of individuals. You should work for a campaign because you do a heck of a lot better spinning things than that loser Tucker with the McCain campaign.

____________________

truebljb1:

@Pro America

Honestly..I don't know. I just said he has a ways to go. I'm a McCain supporter (die hard) and I recognize he is down, but I really think it is only about 4 points. I don't know if I call it a surge, but I do think there is some movement towards McCain and I expect that to continue. I'm not a racist at all, but the fact is 90% of undecideds are white and McCain will get the majority of those voters. He needs the narrative to change to "McCain Comeback". He needs a few, maybe 1 or 2% of Obama leaners to change there vote. This is not a blowout and McCain is already within the margin of error in all the states he needs to get a path to 270. Not saying he will do it, just saying this is far from over.

____________________

DCDemocrat:

It appears that God wants the World Series most important three innings to occur immediately after Barack Obama's Wednesday night speech.

I don't know how many of you are baseball fans, but doubtless even those of you who are not baseball fans know that the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays are facing off. Right now, the series is 3-1 in favor of the Philadelphia Phillies. They tried to play the game last night in a monsoon and finally called it off after the Tampa Bay Rays tied the game (2-2) in the top of the 6th inning. The game was supposed to be a go from the top of the sixth this evening. But the weather has not cooperated. It has been rescheduled for tomorrow evening, immediately following Barack Obama's half-hour speech.

Now, if the Phillies come out on top during the next three innings, they will win the World Series for 2008. I suspect that an investment of time in three innings that will decide the year's top team probably is of great interest to many Americans.

The universe has conspired to put those three innings immediately after Obama's speech. I can't imagine that the numbers in his audience are going to suffer any as the result of this accident. I also have never seen a politician born under the lucky star that hovers over Obama.

____________________

carl29:

One thing is clear guys: As soon as PA is called for Obama, the night is over. McCain is banking the entire farm in PA if he fails to steal it, Obama is the next POTUS :-)

____________________

orange24:

**** BREAKING NEWS ****

Dow surges as McCain falls further and further behind in the Electoral College. Film at 11.

____________________

Trosen:

truebljb1:

"McCain is already within the margin of error in all the states he needs to get a path to 270."

Oh yea.. what states? According to what polls?What's the path? That's just a flat-out lie. But please, don't let me ruin your fantasy. If you want something semi-realistic, look at my earlier post about McCain's "potential paths" to 270.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@carl29

NV and CO will still be important.

____________________

OGLiberal:

95% of the people in this country don't base their view of their personal economic security or insecurity on the day-to-day ups and downs of the DJIA. People are losing jobs and will continue to lose jobs. The market for new jobs suck. Wages are stagnant. Prices at the grocery store are out of hand. Home valuesare way down. People are carrying more debt than they can handle.

A 600-700 pt single day gain on the Dow means absolutely nothing to average Americans. The market will not be McCain's savior, especially since give the way the market's been performing lately, we're sure to at least one and maybe two more 300-500pt loss days between now and election day.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@truebljb1

You have my respect for showing people that McCain supporters on this board are not like boomshak. Just because someone may be losing doesn't mean we have to throw logical discussions out of the window and keep throwing the word "surge" around.

____________________

orange24:

"Red" Rasmussen still has Obama up 7 in PA and 4 in NV. This thing is just tightening up all over the place!

____________________

truebljb1:

Carl 29,

It would hurt, but its not over. If this race gets back to a near tie. I think McCain will win all the toss ups in east of the Mississippi. It will then come down to Colorado and Nevada. You just never know..of course its a mute point if Obama is up 5.

____________________

Inkan1969:

truebljb1, BTW, thanks for always being civil in your posts.

____________________

zen:

Looks like National tightening is happening in Non Swing states.

JFK won popular vote less than one percent and got 301 EV...very ecomomical victory

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@carl29

If he takes PA and FL, call it a night.

____________________

carl29:

@"Internal Polling of both camps is showing PA much closer than the public polls. That's why Obama is still spending so much time there..."

Isn't this the silliest "insider knowledge" you have heard of?

Do you really think that a candidate will not show up in a state that is so pivotal for him or her and where the opponent is investing time and money? At least you have to make sure that your voters are energize to come out and vote. Didn't Kerry and Clinton have a mega-rally in Philly at the end of the 2004 campaign?

____________________

Thatcher:

The market is picking up "cheap" shares after the massive drops we've seen. We see this happen before in the pass couple of weeks. This would be the largest gain, granted - however - after some bargain purchases - you will see the DOW dip again tomorrow or Thursday. That's what happens. Most of this stuff is computerized - and these trades are automatically triggered on prices.

____________________

SoloBJ:

@carl29,

Not crazy about RAS' PA poll. McCain and Palin have been spending a lot of time there. I know they probably have no choice at this point which is why they are there but even though Obama still leads, That PA number from RAS is probably going to look like a big deal for McCain. Obama went from +13 two weeks ago to only +7 now.

The good news is that we haven't seen any hint of a McCain surge in the Muhlenberg poll. Obama continues to lead by double digits in that one. Also, I believe Clinton will be heading to PA tomorrow.

____________________

mr2dco:

OGLiberal is on to something:

"For those who will say, "Obama is only up 7 in PA!", I will note a) that he's polling at 53, which is only 1pt lower than his Rasmussen high in that state (54, he hit that on 10/6)."

Pretty hard for McCain to win in PA if Barack is bringing in 53-54% of the vote-- isn't it?

____________________

laguna_b:

Actually anyone who knows anything about the Market knows that BEAR markets have HUGE lightning rallies, that fade to newer lows....we are no wheres near bottoming.

____________________

syrac818:

The stock market is up 800 points!

.... and we're almost to 9,000.

The last time it was this low, it was 2003.

____________________

orange24:

Pretty hard for McCain to win in PA if Barack is bringing in 53-54% of the vote-- isn't it?

Don't try to confuse the reds by injecting logic and math into this. If they say it's getting tight, then it's getting tight and that's that.

____________________

straight talk:

7 SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT FOR PA! IF YOU WERE THE McCAIN CAMP WOULD YOU WANT TO BE DOWN BY 7% IN PA, DOWN BY 5% IN FLORIDA, OR DOWN BY 6% IN OHIO?

____________________

Babbit:

boomshak:
FoxNews Reporting:

"Internal Polling of both camps is showing PA much closer than the public polls. That's why Obama is still spending so much time there..."

boomshak, there are two mistakes in this post. After Fox, you incorrectly wrote the words 'News' and 'Reporting'.

____________________

truebljb1:

McCain needs another day or two of tighting polls (overall), that would quit the negative reports on the campaign. I think tomorrows national polls are important for that reason. I know it is the states that matter, but evening news casts don't report state by state, they report horse race numbers. Americans love a winner...we all know that. That is why it is important for the national numbers to close

____________________

WhereisMitt:

This may or may not be poll-related, but Crist is extending early voting hours in Florida to 12 hours a day.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/10/crist-extends-e.html

____________________

jlm9:

GOP logic taken to its extreme - If the logic is that O + 7 in PA means that McCain will win that state - does it work in reverse if McCain is +7 in MS then has Obama won that state?

They should really do some comparion polling - I wonder where McCain would be right now if he had picked Tom Ridge or Mitt Romney. I would suspect within the MOE.

If Stevens wins and resigns Palin doesn't have to win elections for 6 whole years if she goes to the Senate - She is up for reelection in 2 if she remains in her current position. Hmm job security in the Senate

____________________

I think everyone should be focusing on Obama's number, not McCain's. Obama is not losing support. His average is still stay at or above 50%. McCain can't win with that support. Right now McCain seems to be picking up undecideds, but not flipping Obama votes. If you all remember, the polls have been something like 50-52% to 44-45%... Thats a total of between 94% and 97%. Obviously when the votes are counted you'll have 100% total. So until Obama starts slipping below 50% (or even 49% since not 100% of the undecideds will go to McCain) I don't think anyone needs to worry.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"zen: Muehlenberg
PA: Obama 53, Maccain 41"

Which means the two point shift (probably noise) is back to where it's been all month. Obama up 8-9%. No surge. No evidence even of a shift in the numbers. So what're the odds of McCain making a massive transformation in less than a week?

Probability next to nil.

____________________

It's heartening to see that not everyone to the right of center is punting on dignity and turning into a lying, smearing, ranting, let's-make-up-our-own-facts idiot like your pal Boomshak.

People win and lose in politics, in baseball, in LIFE. If you can't learn to take a trouncing with a little dignity, this might not be the field for you.

Remember, there's always another day to fight. You don't have to be one of the denialists or true believers who go down into the bunker with a cyanide capsule.....

____________________

Basil:

Just read over the Pew data (from RCP) that shows a huge Obama lead. Numbers too high, but lots of positive Obama elements and a significant sample (1500). Hard to see how the issues McCain is pushing can make much of a dent.

http://people-press.org/reports/questionnaires/465.pdf

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

OUTWITTED, OUTGUNNED AND OUTTHOUGHT

McCain...God love him...but it has to be said...would make a lousy battlefield commander. He's directed all his major forces towards one front, PA, and left his flanks exposed. Obama is well fortified in PA and his troops are outflanking McCain in CO, VA, NM, NC, NV and NH in what is developing to be a classic pincer movement. McCain has already ceded CO & NH, and the Obama troops have the upper hand in the other flanks. Stonewall Jackson is nodding his head in admiration from up above.

____________________

straight talk:

DON'T WORRY OBAMA SUPPORTERS THE CLOSESTS McCAIN CAN HOPE FOR IS 5%! PA IS SAFE! SHOW ME 1 PENNSYLVANIA POLL THAT SHOWS McCAIN LEADIN McCAIN SUPPORTERS! HECK SHOW ME A PATH TO 270? oBAMA SUPPORTERS QUIT FREAKIN OUT!!! OBAMA HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO FLIP AZ AT 5% BEFORE McCAIN FLIP PA! HE EVEN HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO FLIP GEORGIA AND INDIANA BEFORE McCAIN TURNS PA RED!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Pollster hasn't posted the Plus 10 poll in NV or RAS plus 4. NV should turn blue once this is done!

____________________

NW Patrick!

Amen to that! We're doing all we can do here in Nevada to paint these red rocks blue!!!

____________________

AB:

Early voting numbers in NC as of 7:30 am this morning:
1,412,113 voters (22.70%)
771,549 registered Dems (56.64%)
396,112 registered Repubs (28.05%)
396,174 registered AA (28.06%)

If you live in NC you know that Dems aren't rushing to the polls so that they can vote for McCain. And if you look at these numbers you know that Repubs aren't exactly rushing to the polls to vote for him either.
Palin was in Asheville Sunday evening -- turnout about 9,000 at an indoor venue.
Obama was in Asheville 3 weeks ago -- turnout about 28,000 at an outdoor venue.

____________________

carl29:

Guys, let me explain myself:

If McCain fails to carry PA, after virtually given up CO, IA, NM to Obama in exchange of focusing entirely in PA, how in the heaven will his performance be better in those other states?

PA will be the perfect barometer to see if the Bradley/Racist effect is going to get in Obama's way. If Obama carries PA after all the resources McCain have invested in the state and all the racist we already know exist there, I don't see how McCain's hopes in the other states would realize.

*My opinion :-)

____________________

cinnamonape:

"It appears that God wants the World Series most important three innings to occur immediately after Barack Obama's Wednesday night speech."

I posted something two days back suggesting that the World Series might impact the election. While it might be a "done deal" anyways...it could certainly have an impact in many States with white male voters.

Of course, there are those who may decide to watch "Raising Daisy" to avoid even looking at the "terrorist".

____________________

laguna_b:

@jlm9
"If Stevens wins and resigns Palin doesn't have to win elections for 6 whole years if she goes to the Senate - She is up for reelection in 2 if she remains in her current position. Hmm job security in the Senate"

The Stevens wins part is higly unlikely....

Be interesting to see her in the senate though...maybe she can continue to wreck the far right of the Reps....

____________________

syrac818:

Well, today Obama campaigned there in the rain, McCain/Palin canceled their event. Over the next few days, starting tomorrow, Obama brings in the big dogs (Clinton & friends). McCain has spent 2 weeks and tons of resources on this state, and the closest he has gotten is -7, and Obama at 53%.

____________________

Trosen:

WhereisMitt:
This may or may not be poll-related, but Crist is extending early voting hours in Florida to 12 hours a day.

Wow!! I tell you what.. the McCain campaign and the RNC are none too pleased with governor crist right now. Who knows what motivated this.. maybe it was actually.. "the right thing to do." Republicans are thinking about their own political futures..

____________________

boomshak:

Damn, McCain surges on Gallup and Dow goes up 900 points.

____________________

adocarbog:

So for PA there are no more undecided voters. 53-46 and if 1% goes to third candidates. This should not be surprised as both camps campaigned there for weeks now and all those who needed to make a choice already have.
McCain is still there hoping for a miracle as PA has no early voting.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'm really worried about PA:)

InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama +9
Morning Call 10/23 - 10/27 589 LV 3.8 53 41 Obama +12
Temple Univ. 10/20 - 10/26 761 LV 3.6 50 41 Obama +9
SurveyUSA 10/21 - 10/22 620 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
Strategic Vision (R) 10/20 - 10/22 1200 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 566 LV 4.2 52 41 Obama +11
Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/21 1425 LV 2.6 53 40 Obama +13
National Journal/FD 10/16 - 10/20 412 RV 4.9 51 41 Obama +10
Susquehanna 10/16 - 10/18 700 LV 3.7 48 40 Obama +8
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/13 516 LV 4.4 55 40 Obama +15

____________________

laguna_b:

Sarah Palin brings hope to all those people disenfranchised by ignorance who get by making up thier OWN reality and facts....finally, one of thier OWN has made it!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Trosen

This is probably because Crist doesn't want to go down with the ship. I'm sure that Crist is worried about the next election like so many others are right now. If you were in this environment and seen as someone standing in the way of democracy (aka Michele Bachmann) you are going to have a hard time the next time you come up for a vote.

Crist is just being sensible, he knows which way the political wind is blowing and he's covering his behind.

____________________

carl29:

@Trosen,

I love Charlie. You can go back and see that I have always said that Crist is my favorite Republican. He is seen as a moderate.

*My very heterosexual Gov. :-)

____________________

Lou-NH:

Considering that these new state polls are by Ras this is great news. PA, NV look better than expected. Who would believe these small leads in Arkansas and Mississippi.

____________________

Trosen:

Look.. Obama is at 53 in Ras.. that's it.. nothing even to talk about. So McCain pulled in a bunch of the undecideds.. good for him. But there are no undecideds left to peel off. And it looks like in 3 weeks, McCain MAY have pulled off 1% from Obama.. now he was 7 days to pull off another 4. Best of luck! PA is safe. Let Drudge and Fox hyperventilate over it.

____________________

jlm9:

@ Whereis mitt

By doing this it makes Crist look more popular and gives him ammo for a 2012 run. Most of the GOP are looking out for themselves at this moment not the party. Perhaps some of those early voters who didn't wait in such long lines will remember this and vote Crist in 2012

____________________

NW Patrick:

There is a SIMPLE explanation for the McCain strategy in PA and it makes more sense than "internal" polling when ALL other polls show a min. lead of 7 for Obama in PA up to 15. Internals are internals, they wouldn't be THIS far off from externals.

Simple.

McCain had to pick a state to APPEAR to be playing in. Can you imagine him spending the next week with the news centered on how he is DEFENDING 8+ deep red states? They decided to make a fake play for PA. They know it won't shift but they HAVE TO HOLD THEIR BASE and hope for a Miracle in those red states.

There was an article on this last week and it makes the MOST sense.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Crist is mad like Ridge and Romney. They think McCain is a fool. The stock market went up because Crist just gave FL to Obama.

____________________

Trosen:

carl29:
@Trosen,


"*My very heterosexual Gov. :-)"

Haha... I wouldn't be so sure. Convenient timing on that "wedding" of his..

____________________

zen:

@truebljb1:

There are 2 groups for daily tracking polls.

1)using traditional likely voter model, cell phone users excluded: Zogby, IBD/TIPP, GWU.... they show low single digit lead for Obama.

2)using expanded likely voter model, cell phone users included ... Gallup, ABC/WAPO, CBS, PEW... they show high single digit or double digit lead for obama.

From my observation since Democaratic primary, the second group of polls are far accrate than the first one for Obama.

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

This is exactly my point. McCain needs to peel away support from Obama because he is above 50%, so far after many months, millions of dollars, and a lot of time spent in the state, Obama support is firm and McCain only reaches mid-40's.

____________________

AB:

Also of note in NC:
The total vote difference between Dems and Repubs continues to widen on a daily basis (and by pretty big numbers).
As of 1:00 am on 10/26:
655,937 Dems voted
331,577 Repubs voted
Difference 324,360

As of 7:30 am 10/28
771,549 Dems voted
396,112 Repubs voted
Difference 375,437

This is real voting, it isn't a poll. And regarding enthusiasm, if the Repubs aren't enthusiastic about getting out and voting for McCain, do you really believe that the Democrats are rushing to the polls to vote for McCain instead of Obama?
Get real, only 59% of registered voters turned out in 2004. That number will be significantly different.

____________________

NW Patrick:

***BREAKING NEWS****

NEVADA! WELCOME TO the BLUE STATES BABY! (See pollster.com map.

____________________

tjampel:

TIPP is "untipping" back up to Obama +4
today; that's a huge uptick for Repub
leaning TIPP this far in the game.

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

Isn't Charlie heterosexual? Please don't tell such dirty lies, trosen :-)

____________________

AB:

Sorry, that's 64% of registered voters turned out in 2004.
59% of registered AA voters (in 2004).

____________________

Basil:

Sorry, I missed Pew on the list earlier.

laguna

The sad thing is that you're right about Palin. Ignorance is terrible, but ignorant people don't choose to be ignorant, and they still get to vote. The GOP lesson would seem to be that you can fool 35% of the people all the time.

I'd like to see a comprehensive personality/information study about who votes for what. As a D, I tend to assume R's are more ignorant and more messed up (with vast #'s of exceptions), but I'm sure R's have their mirror position about us.

But then, who does the study?

____________________

Cane Cattivo:

@boomshak:
"Damn, McCain surges on Gallup and Dow goes up 900 points."

Damn, I flipped a coin in Tulsa and Messi scores a goal in Barcelona.

____________________

Sweet Jesus my state is BLUE!!!

____________________

zen:


Today PA Morning Call
Obama 53, Maccain 41

____________________

Trosen:

carl29:
"Trosen,

Isn't Charlie heterosexual? Please don't tell such dirty lies, trosen :-)"


Uhhh.. sure he is. He does have a lovely wife.

Anyway though, if he got strong-armed into this by Gelber (Big, big Obama supporter) that is going to tick off a lot GOP big wigs. The dissension in the ranks continues. It's also surprising because just a day or 2 ago I think he said they were definitely NOT going to extend early voting hours. Glad they are. We've been having issues with the elderly not wanting to wait in 4 hour lines, or just being physically unable to.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@carl29

If you have to ask, don't you already have your answer.

____________________

Basil:

AB

Yep. Hard to imagine R's would choose to wait en masse until Nov. 4, while D's would vote early and slack off late.

Still, lots of southern D's are left over dixiecrat types, so I'm not celebrating yet.

____________________

zen:


PA Morning Call (Oct 28th)
Obama 53, Maccain 41

Looks like Obama's 53 percent is stable among various polls.
And only 5 percent of obama supporters are soft supporters... even he loses all soft voters, he still get more than 50 percent.

____________________

Trosen:

Shannon, It's sort of a running "rumor" down here that Crist might not be.. on the straight and narrow, so to speak. But of course as a good liberal, I could care less.

____________________

OGLiberal:

Two other things to note about Rasmussen's PA poll today:

1) Obama's 53 matches his number in the Muhlenberg tracker, where he's been at 52-53 for about two weeks. The 10/23 SurveyUSA, University of Wisconsin, and Q-Pac polls in PA also had Obama at 53. That National Journal Poll on that same date had him at 51. Temple poll from 10/27 had him at 50. Strategic Vision on 10/24 had him at 50. See a pattern here? And 46 is McCain's best showing in the state in recent weeks/months.

2) As somebody above pointed out, with Rasmussen showing the race at 53-46, that means that only 1 percent are undecide. Let's say McCain wins every single undecided voter and actually steals one percent of Obama's current supporters. That would result in a 52-48 Obama win.

Unless McCain can convince a significant number of current Obama supporters to switch over to him, he just can't win PA. And I just don't see how he can do that in a week.

____________________

AB:

Basil,
Demographics in NC are really good for Obama; Mecklenberg, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Buncombe and Orange counties are big reservoirs of Obama Democrats.
Look at www.sboe.nc.us.gov for registration information; Obama has done really really well here since Jan 1.

____________________

tar_heel:

AB

Only trouble here in NC is that they set up the ballot so that a straight-party choice will not include the president. In other words, if you just go through the ballot quickly and hit the straight-ticket button, you haven't voted for anybody for president. Voters need to make their presidential choice separately. Thus tens of thousands of Obama votes could have been lost, as Democrats around here are more likely to vote straight ticket than Republicans. I don't know who came up with this crazy system, but it's recent, as my straight-ticket vote in 2004 included a vote for John Kerry.

____________________

Frenchie_75:


All,

By Sunday 32 to 35% of all registered voters will have voted. Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico will be well above 70% done. Ohio will probably be at 30 to 40%. Florida , North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia at the 50% threshold...It will be catch up time for McCain. Watch him campaigning in PA and VA because of no early voting...

Check out the early voting GA numbers today...150k extra votes and still 35.4% turnout for African Americans...really impressive...The ratio went up not down...very interesting

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

The Democratic Party is beginning to resemble the GOP titan that was the Party of Reagan...
- fantastic groundgame
- gigantic financial war chest
- early voting numbers way up
- exemplary discipline

____________________

DecaturMark:

McCain is giving PA his 110% effort so he can win the state 57% to 53%! Welcome to the Straight Jacket Express!

____________________

AB:

tar_heel,
Not so fast, I already voted.
First choice was for president.
Then an option to straight ticket the remaining partisan contests.
Then each of the partisan contests individually.
Then the non-partisan contests.

____________________

carl29:

OGLiberal,

This is the key to PA: If Obama keeps his lead above 50%, McMaverick has no hope in carrying the state :-)

Just think about it: After months of spending, campaigning, and smears, McCain hasn't been abled to bring Obama below the 50% threshold. My gut feeling? Obama support is way to strong at this point. That +50% already made up their mind and nothing will change it :-)

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tar_heel:

That's good to know, AB. This issue has made the airwaves here in Charlotte, and as I haven't voted yet, I apparently got the wrong impression. It's still confusing that you can't straight ticket the whole ballot (sans non-partisan contests) the way you could four years ago.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Trosen -

I came in to assist with GOTV for Gelber in 2000 when he ran against Geller in the primary - great guy. "It's gotta 'B'" Gelber!

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Fioreb:

I would like to stress that while we see single point % movements in most daily trackers creating a lot of noise we "costantly" see Sen Obama tracking above 50% in National as well as several battlegrounds. That means that while the race may tighten, and probably will, the candidate holding a 50%+ is the one that most likely will bring home those EV. If anything, we could start discussing some more favorable scenarios for McCain not so much when his percentages go up one or 2 points but if and when we see those of Sen Obama drop below the 50% mark.

An early voter (ballot cast for Sen Obama)

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NextAmericanChapter:

This Sarah Palin is a real piece of work. The more that I learn about her, the more I detest her. Check out Tapper's blog, especially the section that recounts the people that she's screwed over in her quest for power. It's really ugly...
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/ooooooh-barracu.html

I just sent Obama another $50. We can't let this woman anywhere near the oval office.

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boomshak:

AWESOME NEW MCCAIN AD ON OBAMA SOCIALISM:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiB4EobS_ZM

"No thanks Barack. Keep the change..."

Lol, classic line :)

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

SNL:

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/obama-address/787181/


It's Solid. Solid as a rock. That's what this lead is. That's what we got got got.

____________________

carl29:

Boomy the end is near :-)

Will you show up at this website next Tuesday night? I hope you do so. I will :-)

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boomshak:

NEWS FLASH! MCCAIN CAMP DEMANDS THAT LATIMES RELEASE VIDEO TAPE OF OBAMA AND RASHID KHALIDI AT A PARTY.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/McCain_camp_demands_LA_Times_video.html?showall

It is amazing that the LATimes has this tape and has refused to release it purey out of bias to Obama.

The fact that McCain has now publicly demanded it puts them in a pickle. I think the tape is being 'accidentally' placed next to a big magnet right about now...

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NextAmericanChapter:

WHAT MCCAIN IS UP AGAINST...

I know that McCain doesn't have a chance in Pennsylvania, but just play along:
Obama could lose PA, FL, OH, IN, MO and NC and STILL win the election in states where he has a solid lead like CO, VA, and NV. No wonder the finger-pointing has already started at the McCain-Palin campaign. The electoral math is scary.

____________________

boomshak:

Actually, now that this is public, Obama is hurt more by it NOT being released as people are left to wonder, "what is Obama hiding?"...

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

WHAT MCCAIN IS UP AGAINST...

I know that McCain doesn't have a chance in Pennsylvania, but just play along:
Obama could lose PA, FL, OH, IN, MO and NC and STILL win the election via states where he has a solid lead like CO, VA, and NV. No wonder the finger-pointing has already started at the McCain-Palin campaign. The electoral math is scary.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@boom - He is probably hiding getting blessed by a witch doctor...oh, or was that someone else.

Don't you get it man. This is all distractions. McCain should talk about the issues. This is why he is losing. This is not 1988, 1992, 1996, or 2000.

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kerrchdavis:

Since boom wants to talk about the LA times:

LA TIMES POLL:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll29-2008oct29,0,7008892.story

In Ohio, a state that has been battered for years by unemployment and plant closings, Obama is leading McCain 49% to 40% among people likely to vote.

In Florida, a state that was considered a likely win for Republicans not long ago, McCain is trailing, 50% to 43%.

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Trosen:

ouch.. OH slipping away. VA slipping away.. FL lining up next..Then what.. NC? AZ???

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political_junki:

"boomshak:
Actually, now that this is public, Obama is hurt more by it NOT being released as people are left to wonder, "what is Obama hiding?"...

People didnt even care about Ayres who had been a terrorist inside US, do you honestly think people in OH, PA or CO will care about some Palestinian professor who maybe anti isreal in his poetry? You live in fantasy world BOOM.

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oicu:

You want the LATimes to release the tape of Obama with the dreadful Palestinian that McCain gave hundreds of thousands of dollars to? You guys really need to stop believing Drudge and Fox and the hypocrites on the McCain campaign.

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Texas_Democrat:

This poll not only made New Hampshire dark blue, it put over 270 in the strongly Obama catagory. I'm looking forward to the landslide coming.

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