NC: 2010 Sen (PPP 3/12-15)
Emily Swanson | March 17, 2010
Topics: poll
Public Policy Polling (D)
3/12-15/10; 878 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)
North Carolina
2010 Senate
41% Burr (R), 39% Generic Democrat (chart)
43% Burr (R), 32% Cunningham (D) (chart)
43% Burr (R), 32% Lewis (D) (chart)
41% Burr (R), 36% Marshall (D) (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
Cal Cunningham: 4 / 10
Kenneth Lewis: 5 / 9
Elaine Marshall: 17 / 12
Job Approval / Disapproval
Sen. Hagan: 31 / 44 (chart)
Sen. Burr: 35 / 37 (chart)
Comments
This will be a closer race than expected since Burr is not a widely popular Republican senator. Burr won 6 years ago back when NC was a much redder state than it is now. I have noticed that the two red states that Obama won that have stayed relatively strong for him have been Colorado and NC.
Posted on March 17, 2010 3:33 PM
Obama's low approval is undeserved, but I did predict that whoever Bush's successor was would not be very popular in the beginning of their presidency, just because they were going to be left holding the bag.
Posted on March 17, 2010 3:36 PM
I don't understand why Burr is so weak in North Carolina in a Republican year.
Posted on March 17, 2010 4:31 PM
Obama's low approval is undeserved? I was thinking just the opposite. Interesting.
This polls crosstabs are a bit weird. 47% Dem, 35% rep, 18% indy in NC? Don't know the actual numbers but i would guess that those are way off.
Posted on March 17, 2010 4:47 PM
Obama is now under-water for the first time on the gallup tracking poll. Brutal.
Posted on March 17, 2010 5:31 PM
Obama didn't run for office to be popular and always have high poll numbers. A lot of historic legislation like Medicare, Social Security and others had low approval and compared with communism when they started. If Obama didn't take the issues like wall street greed, ruthless supreme court decisions, calling a corporation a person? I am a defender of Free speech and hate censorship, but that decision was the most politically motivated decision in Supreme court history.
Obama's approval may be underwanter, but every great leader had the same rough patches including, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.
Posted on March 17, 2010 6:40 PM
Burr is not polling well because he is a mediocre senator. I am tired of people voting for a candidate or against them because of what party they are from. It is absurd. It is machine politics at their best.
Posted on March 17, 2010 6:43 PM
This poll is likely voters, so I am sure the poorer people who came out for Obama are not as likely to vote. It will take strong organization.
Posted on March 17, 2010 6:46 PM
"Obama didn't run for office to be popular and always have high poll numbers."
I'll remember that line next time someone mentions Bush's low approval numbers.
Posted on March 17, 2010 8:18 PM
Thanks for mentioning that FM, somebody needed to. The polling sample of this poll is weird, more like a Daily Kos electorate then NC's.
Posted on March 17, 2010 9:48 PM
Thanks for mentioning that FM, somebody needed to. The polling sample of this poll is weird, more like a Daily Kos electorate then NC's.
Posted on March 17, 2010 9:49 PM
The polling sample here is actually quite close to the party breakdown in NC. According to the most recent statistics (ncvoters.com), party affiliation in NC is 45.6% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 22.4% Unaffiliated.
Despite being considered a red state in most Presidential elections, the Democratic Party has traditionally owned NC in state-wide races. For example, NC has only had 2 Republican Governors in the last 110 years (one in the 1970s and one the 1980s).
NC has simply not experienced the same degree of party realignment (from Democrat to Republican) which has occurred throughout most of the South.
Posted on March 17, 2010 11:17 PM
Am I the only one who finds it funny that a generic Dem outpolls all the actual named Dems?
Posted on March 17, 2010 11:44 PM
Yeah, that is funny but goes with the general mantra of simply voting for "the party" but then when you find out about them, you tend to dislike them.
Posted on March 18, 2010 9:31 AM
Burr barely won in 2004 when it was a huge tide for the Republicans. i think he might get the boot. If this Generic democrat would run, i don't know what's taking them so long to announce their canidancy.
Posted on March 18, 2010 9:53 AM
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