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NC: 2010 Sen (PPP 5/8-10)

Topics: North Carolina , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
5/8-10/10; 631 likely voters, 3.9% margin of erro
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
44% Burr (R), 39% Cunningham (D) (chart)
43% Burr (R), 42% Marshall (D) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Kay Hagan: 36 / 42 (chart)
Sen. Burr: 37 / 40 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Cal Cunningham: 16 / 18
Elaine Marshall: 23 / 20

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

The Dems must vote for Marshall. I think they will, but it is unfortunate that Conway won't win the primary in Kentucky since he polls better against the Republicans.

I would hope that this shift may be encouraging for Harry Reid. NC is sort of a race that would have been a longer shot for the Dems 2 years ago.

I am not crazy about Burr, but he irritates me a lot less than Sue Lowden.

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Farleftandproud:

There is clearly a shift against incumbents which I don't really understand. I can understand why Blanche Lincoln is being challenged, but to challenge a candidate who fits into the party structure like Bennett did it doesn't make sense. If I were a Republican, I would have been outraged that Bennett lost in Utah to a younger far right candidate.

It seems like the party's are just trying harder and harder to be devisive. The Ronald Reagan's and Ted Kennedy's are harder to find these days.

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jmartin4s:

Elaine Marshall is folksy candidate who can relate better to rural voters and North Carolina voters have grown fond of her over time. Cal Cunningham on the other hand is the establishment candidate who has been out of politics forever and was only a state for two years. Sometimes the stupidy of the national democratic party astounds me.

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Farleftandproud:

It would be good even if 2010 ends up like 2004. Dems lost 4 or 5 seats in conservative states, but picked up Ohio and IL.

Democrats have to have a goal of losing all but 4 or 5 seats because 2012 the states dems have to defend are more conservative; Missouri, Montana, Virginia, North Dakota and Nebraska.

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Farleftandproud:

I meant in 2004 they picked up CO and IL

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Paleo:

Agree that Marshall would be the stronger candidate. And Conway. But Dems have a better shot in NC than KY regardless. Kentucky is a more conservative state, with less AAs and transplanted northeasterners.

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tjampel:

PPP was right about Obama in NC (they had him up 1 point and he won by about that margin). This is their home state. So...whether or not they have a "D" next to their name I tend to trust their reporting out of this state.

Marshall would win the primary runoff. She is very fortunate to be facing a senator who seems to engender little if any reaction from anyone; he's kind of invisible, a classic back-bencher. This race may turn on personal qualities and debate performance rather than on the major issues of the day (which would favor Burr this year in NC). If Elaine can make it about character, personality, charisma, etc. she can win.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Which seats did the Dems lose in 2004? I know Edwards seat in NC. Which other ones? Obama and Salazar were the only pick ups then. Obama will be on the ticket though but it probably won't help in any of these states. Think Mccaskill and Tester will be ok. Webb and Conrad might have more of a fight on their hands depending on the mood of the country. Nelson probably has the biggest fight of all five of these. He might even switch parties soon. However, he would have a primary fight for sure if he does. To be the only democrat to vote no against financial reform, he will have a problem on the democratic side too. Probably not a big democratic base for someone to primary him but it might happen just like it did to Specter.

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Bigmike:

Farleftandproud:

"There is clearly a shift against incumbents which I don't really understand."

Exploding deficits, high unemployment, no action on immigration, and a govt passing laws not supported by a majority of the people. I for one am happy about the message sent by Bennett's defeat. Since when is it important that a candidate fit into the party structure? That is what has lead to a divided nation. How about candidates who do what is right for the country? What a concept. Public servants who actually serve the public.

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jmartin4s:

I can tell you this, I think there is a much better chance than they pick this seat up than Ohio. That is for sure.

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HoosierDaddy:

Richard Burr is vulnerable, especially if Black voters come out. That said, its been almost 40 years since someone not named Jesse Helms was re-elected in NC.

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Chris V.:

jmartin4s:

Elaine Marshall is folksy candidate who can relate better to rural voters and North Carolina voters have grown fond of her over time. Cal Cunningham on the other hand is the establishment candidate who has been out of politics forever and was only a state for two years. Sometimes the stupidy of the national democratic party astounds me.

Posted on May 11, 2010 12:10 PM


Neat. I had gone far too long without a classic jmartin "anyone who doesn't support my candidate is stupid" comment.

Also, "stupidy?" Hate to be the typo police, but you know, irony is a bitch.

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