Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

NC: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 7/6)

Topics: North Carolina , Poll , Senate

Rasmussen
7/6/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
52% Burr (R), 37% Marshall (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Burr: 56 / 38 (chart)
Elaine Marshall: 44 / 43

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 59 (chart)
Gov. Perdue: 46 / 51 (chart)

 

Comments
lat:

Amazing that Burr's favorability just shot up 15 or so points from ppp yesterday! Go Scottie go, Go Scottie go!

____________________

Farleftandproud:

You've got to be joking about the favorability. Burr's job approval on ppp was terrible.

____________________

Paleo:

How could we go through a day without a release from the Republicans' favorite pollster.

____________________

melvin:

Like i said many of times,everytime a poll comes out showing the Dems gaining ground, Rasmussen comes out the next day with a outliar,how can Obama approval rating be that low when almost 40% of the vote in NC is Minority? expect rasmussen to come out with a poll showing rand paul leading by 15% soon,because yesterdays poll had the race tied.its obvious this guy is being told by Foxnews in the Gop to make up numbers.If the Gop do not win back the House in Senate in November, Rasmussen is going to be the biggest lauging stock in the business,because he is really going all out for the Republicans this year.

____________________

obamalover:

Now this is just silly.

____________________

Field Marshal:

How could we go a day without the libies whining about their favorite pollster?

____________________

lat:

Far Left,

That's what I mean. Yesterday ppp had burrs rating in the upper 30's and low and behold Scottie Ras has him 15 points up the next day! Go Scottie Go, Go Scottie Go!

____________________

Stillow:

Hahahaha....seriously. every loonly leftis on here just one by one whined once again about Rass. Some things in life you can just always count on. the sun will come up, it will be hot in summer, women are confusing and liberals will bash rass (or any poll they don't like on a given day)....

the more things change, the more they stay the same.

____________________

Wong:

I am SHOCKED, SHOCKED to find HCR approval nosing out disapproval on Marks' pollster average 44.4% to 44.3%.

Another false Tea Bag narrative bites the dust.

____________________

vincent106:

@Wong

Are you saying that health care reform at 44% is a good thing? So much for landmark legislation.

____________________

Wong:

@vincent106

It's a good start.

The civil rights act of 1964 was unpopular when initially passed. It is still regarded as "landmark" legislation.

Just ask Rand Paul.

____________________

Field Marshal:

tjample,

Weren't you the one that criticized me for making fun of the libies on the board for being one-trick pony's- only being able to spout racism and/or chastising Ras? Uh, take a look at your fellow Rhodes scholar libies on this board and tell me something funny again. So funny. I mean, the fact that they automatically believe PPP, a dem pollster but whine and cry like infants about Ras, an indie pollster, is so funny.

Anyway, back to the poll. Burr will win by 8 or 9 easy.

____________________

StatyPolly:

60% of LV's favor repeal of HC bill though.

Scottie wouldn't lie to you.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/health_care_law

____________________

vincent106:

@wong

So what? Pointing to one piece of legislation and saying this piece will be the exact same is dumb at best, beyond idiotic at worst.

Plessy v Ferguson was very popular when it was passed.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Check out SurveyUSA poll of San Diego-

2. The United States Justice Department has filed a lawsuit to block Arizona's new immigration law. Do you agree? or disagree? with the Justice Department decision to sue?

Agree: 33%
Disagree: 62%

Hispanics Agree: 42%
Hispanics Disagree 46%

Kinda disproves the libie theory that hispanics are overwhelmingly against the AZ law and will come out in droves because of it in Nov.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=603455a2-67bc-468d-b483-6a577f3bb2ad

____________________

hoosier_gary:

This is more like it. I knew that PPP poll was garbage. 41% sounds about right for Obama's approval. Maybe a little high, but like Nate Silver shows - Rassmussen is in the 90th percentile for accuracy.

But don't worry democrats. Maybe all 11% of those undecided will vote for Marshall and 3% who are now planning to vote for Burr will change their minds and vote for her too.

Yep. 59% disapprove of Obama but they'll put that aside and send a Senator to Washington to help him keep doing they things they despise.

64% of NC voters want the healtchare monstrosity repealed. Not just disapprove - they want it repealed. But they'll vote for Marshall to go help defend it. Yeah, that's going to happen.

62% favor the AZ law. 70% do not approve of the lawsuit.

68% do not think the stimulus bill helped the economy.

75% do not believe that the stimuls created jobs.

74% do not think the economy is getting better.

Only 15% think we are not still in a recession.

Those are all great help for the democrat.

____________________

seg:

Wong:
"The civil rights act of 1964 was unpopular when initially passed."

What did the polls show back then? I am curious as to how you know how popular it was since I cannot find a poll on public opinion of it back then.

This also conflicts with other reports that Congress has rarely passed important legislation that was unpopular at the time. In fact, even Clinton's tax increases in the 1990's had 50% approval.

Also, my understanding is that the percentage of Republicans who voted for in the House and Senate was higher than the votes for demos.

____________________

iVote:

PPP is based in North Carolina. I trust them more than the crap that Scott Rasmussen spews on a daily basis. Burr still has the slight edge here, sure, but this poll is also still shit.

____________________

seg:

Whoops!
It was 58% approval for Clinton's tax increase.

____________________

saywhat90:

That was 2008 hoosier.Nate hasn't been kind to rasmussen as of late. Apparently you didnt read his piece about the ras house effect. I question any poll with a dem or republican leaning pollster invloved. especially this far out in a highly political and polarized environment. And it's not like cons haven't whined about polls and screamed outliers when a poll didn't favor their candidate. Both sides do it on here. So don't try to play the amnesiaic like you guys haven't.

____________________

StatyPolly:

"Hispanics Agree: 42%
Hispanics Disagree 46%"

And this sample is adults, not LV's or even RV's. In San Diego? How many of those hispanics are even legal? 42%?

Legal Hispanics couldn't care less about AZ law. Interesting that Blacks in this survey were 2 for and 20 against. Small sample, but I'd guess that Blacks are even less supportive of illegal immigration than Whites.

____________________

hoosier_gary:

@saywhat90:

I read the piece about the house effect. I also read the part abbout Nate Silver being a far-left liberal and starting his career by writing for Daily Kos. He has a bit of house effect himself.

Bottom line is that the ranking released just a couple of months ago show rasmussen highly accurate.

This has gone beyond a little whining and screaming. This has grown into a complete psychological break with reality for some of these poor brain-damaged discouraged liberals who probably wake up screaming "rasmussen" in their sleep. It is a psychotic obsession.

We've even had some of the more delusional ones calling for the government to step in and arrest Scott Rassmussen.

I know the liberal icon of hope and change has dropped into the toilet and is swirling away down the sewer of irrelevance but they are taking it a little too hard. Maybe they should add treatment for liberal disilllusionment in Obamacare?

Oops - they can't do that. Obamacare will be repealed next year.

____________________

Wong:

@Vincent106

"Plessy v Fergueson was very popular when it was passed"

That statement would be laughable if it weren't so pathetically ignorant.

SC decisions are handed down. Legislation is PASSED.

____________________

dpearl:

"What did the polls show back then? I am curious as to how you know how popular it was since I cannot find a poll on public opinion of it back then."

Seg: The Harris Poll in 1964 found 62% supported a law to guarantee blacks "the right to be served in any retail store restaurant, hotel, or public accommodation"

The Gallup Poll in 1964 after the law passed they found that 62% favored a "gradual persuasive approach" to enforcement as opposed to only 23% saying the law should be "strictly enforced from the beginning".

so things were mixed - have a law but don't enforce it.

____________________

iVote:

Hey hoosier, Field Marshall, Stillow and the rest of you, welcome to the Huffington Post! Maybe now you'll come to your senses!

____________________

Dustin:

Ok, I live in NC, and can tell you that there is NO WAY, that Burr is this far ahead! PPP and Civitas, both have Burr's aproval in the 30's!! He is not well liked in NC at all, especially after blocking the extension of unemployment benefits, and doing Nothing for the state!! PPP just released Obama's job approval for NC :

46% Approve
50% Disapprove
4% No Opinion

That sounds more like it!

____________________

seg:

dpearl:
Thanks for the info. The latter poll was poorly done since it gave two such starkly different choices.

I think the attitude of most people at the time may have been something like:
(1) enforce strictly for large establishments and chains immediately,
(2) phase in gradually for "Joe's Redneck Saloon" and similar small establishments.

From my experiences at the time, I would say that is pretty much what happened.

I remember being furious when a black friend declined to go with me and two others to a local joint on the grounds that he would not be welcome. I was all for crashing in with him and forcing them to try to throw us out.

He thanked me for my feelings but said, "The truth is that I usually like to go to places where whites would not be welcome. I would be a hypocrite if I busted in every cracker watering hole."

Within a year I saw blacks at the same club, with no apparent problems or friction over it. Sometimes confrontation is not the best answer.

____________________

melvin:

Do you Republicans really believe you are going to get over 45% of the Hispanic vote? Is this the party who wants to take away their American born children Citizenship,is this the party who wants to cut off their electricity,is this the party who wants to ban their children from going to public schools? You guys are way over your heads Republicans.Dick Morris actually said on Fox he thinks the Gop will get over 55% of the latino vote in 2012"Dick Morris predicted the samething in 2006,in what did the Gop get 27% of the latino vote.

____________________

saywhat90:

Hoosier do you seriously think that the republicans will win enough seat to repeal healthcare. They would have to win a record 100 or seat in the house to do that. Get real. Now who is delusional and disillusioned.

____________________

StatyPolly:

Yeah Melvin, I was just gonna post that GOP will get 45% of Hispanic vote in 2010. You beat me to it.

____________________

saywhat90:

Hoosier, repeal of HC is not gonna happen. The republicans may win the house but not enough to repeal HC. Although noone is really saying with absolute certainty that a power shift is coming.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Hey hoosier, Field Marshall, Stillow and the rest of you, welcome to the Huffington Post! Maybe now you'll come to your senses!

Why would National Journal want to be bought by a satirical online newspaper? Odd....

As i wrote on the other thread, any view of objectivity in their news and analysis section will now be lost whether its based on fact and reasonable or not. The same would have been said if Fox had bought the site. I mean, look at the way you lefties cry nonstop about an independent pollster like Ras. Can you imagine if the site were owned by Fox News? I can picture melvins head exploding.

____________________

melvin:

Gallup poll have the Gop only getting 28% of the Hispanic vote.Rasmussen have the Gop getting 46% which is a out liar, Telemundo have the Gop getting only 18%.The Republicans only got over 40% of the Hispanic vote only once,in that was in 2004 when the Gop was treating them like human beings at the time.

____________________

hoosier_gary:

FM:

This is it. Definitely my last post here. I won't have anything to do with a vicious hate site like huff po.

pollster.com might as well not even pretend to have impartiality any more. They threw any credibility out the window by associating with the huffington idiot. Do you think that nasty ho will keep her mitts off of this site?

Its too bad. I liked the composite interactive polls. But I don't trust any of them any more. Who knows how soon they start manipulating the data and ignoring the polls they don't like now?

This has to rank right up there with "new coke" as one of the most stupid business decisions ever made.

____________________

iVote:

Well, if the inevitable influx of HuffPo liberals to Pollster will drown out the far-right redneck lunatics, that's really not a bad thing at all.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Gary,

I'm going to give it a chance. I'll take the news and analysis with a grain of salt since Huff Po is the equivalent of Jon Stewart in newsworthiness. The poll compilation should still be okay. We'll see.

I agree. It probably wasn't the best business decision if they wanted to keep the credibility of the site as high as it currently is. But, as they say, King Dollar is always the strongest motivator.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Great article about how RI has the same law as AZ. Just shows the whole fabricated outrage towards AZ and the suing of the state is all political- would anyone have guessed it wouldn't have been with this president?
-------------------------------------

As The Boston Globe-Democrat reported yesterday, “From Woonsocket to Westerly, the troopers patrolling the nation’s smallest state are reporting all illegal immigrants they encounter, even on routine stops such as speeding, to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.”

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view/20100707bad_posture_on_amnesty_funny_how_feds_lean_on_ariz_not_ri/

____________________

melvin:

Is it funny how the mainstream media is not talking about the law suit the feds hit ARZ with yesterday? You know why? They dont want to give the Hispanic cummunity any reason to come out in vote in November.If this law is so popular why is Foxnews not talking about the law suit 24/7? John Kyle is calling the lawsuit political.In reality the Gop dont want to talk about the lawsuit period, because they know its going to motivate the Hispanics.The media rather talk about Lindsey Lohan oh give me a break.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

"hoosier_gary:
You're pathetic. You are un-American with comments comparing a ruthless maniac like Chavez to any American - especially someone who fought for your sorry ass and spent years in prison being tortured. (Mccain and George W. Bush)

We get it - you hate anyone who isn't a liberal. I didn't think you would sink this low.

But you'll fit right in here now that pollster.com is going to be run by another Chavez lover - Arianna Huffington. You're liberal nonsense will fit right in with the morons who run and read that site. "

Thanks for the compliment Hoosier. Arianna Huffington was once a moderate Republican herself; I have read her books. Her husband ran for either senate or governor and sort of had a semi-Rand Paul philosophy, but not as extreme. Michael Huffington lost to Feinstein I believe and cheated on her, and for Arianna, "hell had no fury like a woman scorned".

I don't hate conservatives and I know many of them. I get along okay with them because there are other topics I discuss with them. In real life I don't talk a lot about these issues.

The bottom line is that our country has had a history of picking and choosing which tyrants to support and which ones not to. Chavez probably doesn't have a good human rights record, but look at the great war hawk Benjamin Netanyahu who expects the United states to protect him when he has oppressed the palistinians. If the US didn't have to be the policeman of the world it would be a lot better.

____________________

Xenobion:

I'm sorry this isn't even polling anymore. Scott Rasmussen has made a career forcing people to pay for his internal polling cross tabs. I'm curious if anyone has even bought them to evaluate his "house effect." Which frankly seems to be a voodoo dance on polling. We all recognized Research 2000/Daily Kos' polls, why can't we recognize this?

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Here is Arizona's Democraphics. I don't believe that Brewer and other candidates in states that are heavily hispanic have the lead. With these Democraphics, those who are here legally and don't want to be profiled have to stand up and raise hell!!!
White persons, percent, 2008 (a) 86.5% 79.8%
Black persons, percent, 2008 (a) 4.2% 12.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native persons, percent, 2008 (a) 4.9% 1.0%
Asian persons, percent, 2008 (a) 2.5% 4.5%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, percent, 2008 (a) 0.2% 0.2%
Persons reporting two or more races, percent, 2008 1.8% 1.7%
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2008 (b) 30.1% 15.4%
White persons not Hispanic, percent, 2008 58.4% 65.6%

____________________

Farleftandproud:

As for Rhode Island having a similar immigration law to Arizona, I think the big difference is Rhode Island doesn't share a border with Mexico or is a stones throw from the Carribean like Florida is.

I am sure that states that don't border Mexico or Latin America can screen people better because they have to travel by plane to get there and they will stand out more. Also immigrants in the northeast are from many different countries, where as Texas and Arizona have people who are primarily coming from Mexico.

____________________

Jdcopyboy:

And I really have to tell it to a lot of folks on the right - the left is absolutely obliterating you on research and verifiable facts in the media world. A major politician, media pundit or figure head on the right is proven wrong about something at least daily if not several times a day. Where is the right's equivalent of this? They don't even seem to be trying to prove the left wrong - it's just all intimidation and propaganda. You want to pull me over on an issue? Give me a solid argument - not something I can easily thwart with a quick Google search. My criticisms of the right have nothing to do with policy itself - that's a different issue. It's in the media war that they're really lacking. They rarely ever know how to put together an honest argument - it's the same reason I grew up thinking marijuana had something to do with eggs over easy. I don't throw anything out (like Ras poll results) just because it has a name on it - but when the bias is so obvious that it's comparable to R2K, I begin to legitimately question. Where's the honesty?

____________________

dpearl:

Rhode Island does not have a law like Arizona's. That is a myth.

____________________

Stillow:

FM - I'be been stuck in meetings all day and just giving the site a ten second run thru, can you give me the simple version of what the HuffPost and pollster thing is about? I just don't have time right now to read what is going on. Thanks.

____________________

JPB11011:

@jdcopyboy

I don't know what news programs or papers you are watching but as a conservative Dem who voted for Obama I would say that I've seen just the opposite. It seems like I am reading about how a Democratic congressman or how Obama is wrong about something they;ve said at least twice a day. Just today I read on Huffington Post about the GOP holding up an appointment of Dr. Berwick as a health official but in reality, that was not the case. In fact, it was the Democrats who were holding it up and finally convinced the White House to make a recess appointment for fear of political back lash to the controversial pick. Perhaps its the media we choose to receive our information from but like i said, it appears to me that the GOP has the fact edge today as opposed to the Dems having it in 2008.

____________________

dpearl:

FM: I read the article - nothing there about Rhode Island having a law like Arizona's - just a lot of talk about police turning over illegal immigrants to the Feds. That can happen in every state and does. They don't have a law specifically impinging on Federal authority.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Dpearl,

Rhode Island state police are allowed to inquire about citizenship with the same cause as they are in AZ- the essence of the AZ law. If one has a problem with what AZ is doing, then one should theoretically have issues with Rhode Island since its identical.

Would you have no issue with the AZ law if law enforcement simply enforced federal law, asking for papers of anyone they think is illegal, without there being a law on the books requiring to do so?

How about California? They do have a law on their books allowing state law enforcement to inquire citizenship status and deportation of illegals. Will they be sued? The whole thing is a crock in an effort to get hispanics out to vote in November. Its fairly obvious to see that.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Stillow,

10 second run-through is that Huff ComPOst bought National Journal and Pollster.com. For the life of me, i just don't understand what the aggregation of a reputable political news site and a hack news site does for National Journal. But hey, its not my reputation on the line.

____________________

dpearl:

FM: As I said before, I don't like the Arizona law. The idea that temporarily holding up traffic when you pick up someone to take them to work will entail a $2500 fine and land you in jail for 6 months is absurd.

I have no information about the law in California that you mention - I'd be happy to read it if you have a link to that law.

____________________

dpearl:

JPB11011: I also thought it was a Republican Senator that had the hold on Dr. Becker's nomination and saw news stories from many sources to that effect (but admittedly did not check it out). What leads you to believe that Democrats were holding up his nomination?

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I think the GOP this Fall all over the country may get about 20 percent of the Latino vote when this saga has gone on this long. I think that South Florida, Texas, NM and Arizona have a lot of Hispanics that are not liberal and have voted in recent elections for Republicans; I think this year, many of them may not. I think the reason why Perry in Texas is staying quiet about changing immigration policies, is he could lose the election if he tried to create such a law.

____________________

JPB11011:

From the link:
"The nomination hasn’t been held up by Republicans in Congress and to say otherwise is misleading,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, which would have held Berwick’s hearing.

Grassley said that he “requested that a hearing take place two weeks ago, before this recess.”

Berwick’s nomination was sent to the Senate in April, and his hearing had not been scheduled because he was participating in the “standard vetting process,” a Democratic aide on the Senate Finance Committee told ABC News.

But speaking not for attribution, Democratic officials say that neither Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., nor Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., the chair of the Senate Finance Committee, were eager for an ugly confirmation fight four months before the midterm elections.

White House officials and Senate Democrats argue that Republicans weren’t acting in good faith, that they were hoping to use Berwick’s nomination to demagogue the career of a widely-respected pediatrician praised by myriad medical organizations as well as President George W. Bush’s CMS administrators. Democrats say that the GOP was planning to use this confirmation fight to re-litigate the health care legislation battle, a fight they lost.

Is the desire to avoid that debate enough of a justification for a recess appointment?

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/07/president-obama-attacks-congress-for-delaying-his-nominees-is-he-right.html

____________________

dpearl:

JPB11011: Thanks for the information. I was definitely misinformed on that one.

____________________

tjampel:

Field Marshal:

"tjample,

Weren't you the one that criticized me for making fun of the libies on the board for being one-trick pony's- only being able to spout racism and/or chastising Ras? Uh, take a look at your fellow Rhodes scholar libies on this board and tell me something funny again. So funny. I mean, the fact that they automatically believe PPP, a dem pollster but whine and cry like infants about Ras, an indie pollster, is so funny.

Anyway, back to the poll. Burr will win by 8 or 9 easy."

People from both sides attack polls all the time, some for valid reasons such as poor sample or methodology, and some for partisan ones.

I see that some have attacked Ras just because it's Ras and one attacked the prior poll just because it was PPP (and didn't yield the result they wanted). Good examples here:

"This is more like it. I knew that PPP poll was garbage"

"Now this is just silly." (referring to the Ras poll at hand).

It's the usual suspects from both sides saying silly things. I just ignore it; maybe you should too instead of wasting your time attacking someone who hasn't even posted on this.

As for Ras being an Indie pollster, you can believe that if you want or you can read the columns they post to get a better feel for their ideology. It's not entirely right wing, for sure (they have an occasional center or left article), but it leans right IMO and Scott is definitely as much a right winger as Nate is on the left.I don't even think Scott makes any attempt to hide his political ideology.

None of this matters though if the results are accurate, based on their particular methodology/set of assumptions (house effect or not/LV or not) and fairly consistent and if the firm doesn't use their polling to drive an agenda. You know quite well that I don't discount or ignore Ras polls at all and have said so many times.

____________________

Jdcopyboy:

I don't know enough about the Berwick nomination to have facts one way or another, although I knew he was recess appointed, but either way, it's a debatable issue grounded in Senate maneuvering and dishonest political tricks used by both sides. I'm not talking about that - I'm talking about the effort on the right in media circles to completely misinform people about easily verifiable issues - things like whether or not the Constitution is based on the Bible (it's not) and whether or not Sean Hannity thinks it's OK to criticize a president in war time when that's all he complained about under Bush. Things like Sarah Palin getting solid facts plain wrong every time she opens her mouth. These aren't mistakes - I'm not referring to general incompetence here, or convoluted debates over Senate rules - I'm talking about the easily verifiable facts caught by people like Jon Stewart, Keith Olbermann, Rachel Maddow and left-wing radio every day. They do entire segments for there shows based solely on how often media figures on the right say things that are just plain wrong. I swear I'm not being biased to the left here. I listen to and read both left and right-wing media (Rush, Fox News, Malkin, Coulter, etc.) and I'm critical of both. But the one thing media on the right is really lacking in is basic correction of left wing facts - they just don't do it the way the left does; instead they state things matter of factly or dismiss people based on association (ah, don't listen to him, he's a friend of so-and-so) instead of actually proving them wrong, and then wave a flag in the background. (The now liberal Sen. Al Franken basically developed his entire political career on breaking down argument after argument of book authors and radio figures like Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity. There just aren't people like that on the right. Read a conservative book sometime - it's filled with 90 percent generalizations and conjecture and 10 percent resaerch that any liberal with too much time on his hands is all too quick to knock down.)

____________________

GoTo123:

Haha, no way that Burr will be winning by that large of a margin. Clearly this one is an outlier. I suspect that if the election were held today Burr would win by about 4-7%.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR