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NC: 38% Burr, 33% Marshall (PPP 6/26-27)

Topics: North Carolina , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
6/26-27/10; 502 likely voters, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
38% Burr (R). 33% Marshall (D), 10% Beitler (L) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Elaine Marshall: 22 / 20
Michael Beitler: 6 / 11

Job Approval / Disapproval
Sen. Hagan: 33 / 41 (chart)
Sen. Burr: 34 / 39 (chart)

 

Comments
melvin:

Why is the Democrats wasting their time in NC? The Gop is going to win NC this year,but by 2020 this State is going to be Purple or lean Blue,so Democrats just give it time.

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kevin626:

Why are Dems wasting there time? Burr is underwater in approval/disapproval and this seat has changed hands like 3 times in a row. Why wouldn't they go after this seat?

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This looks like Marshall's race to win. Burr is way under 50% and even if you add in some of the Libertarian votes, he's still way under 50%. Also, the bulk of the undecideds here are among African-Americans, people living in area code 919 (Research Triangle Park) and among Democrats in general.

Moreover, the sample size showed more McCain votes than Obama votes and we know Obama carried the state. Marshall apparently needs to run a credible, positive campaign that shows her in a good light and she will win. It's as simple as that.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Burr is very unpopular. I think the Dems should spend more money here than AR or ND and even DE. Castle will be hard to beat. BUrr not so much. Obama and Hagan both flipped it in 2008. Hagan beat an entrenched incumbent also. Marshall has a good chance of winning this seat. I wonder what her favorables are. I bet you they are better than his. Plus her odds are good considering the seat has flipped parties 3 times.

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Field Marshal:

A dem pollster with Burr at a 5% lead with 10% going to a Libertarian third party candidate? I would agree that Marshall has a shot but its very slim. Most of that 10% will not actually pull the lever for Beitler and will almost all go to Burr. Plus, this is 2010, not 2008. Minorities are NOT going to show up. Simple as that.

My prediction is Burr by 8%.

DNC shouldn't (and won't) spend any money in DE, ND or AR. They will be spending in NV, PA, OH, and MO. Maybe some in CO.

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Paleo:

Yeah, I can't see the Libertarian getting 10%. Burr is the favorite. But a Marshall win is certainly not out of the question.

A better bet for the Dems is KY, where PPP just issued a poll showing a tie.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/kentucky-senate-race-knotted.html

Even if the poll understates Paul's support, this is a race that is definitely in play. Paul's real opponent is himself. Any more out of the mainstream remarks and he will be in real trouble, because Conway is an acceptable alternative having already won a statewide race.

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lat:

Poor Richard... There may not be enough homophobic, evanglelical nut jobs left in NC to put him over the top.

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Farleftandproud:

If the GOP wins big this year, I bet when people see that the new Republicans in congress senate and governors will have such reprehensible policies that they will be thankful for Kagan in 2014 and Perdue in 2012.

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Field Marshal:

LOL. The last two posts show the stupidity of the left and why they are losing power so fast. Just amazing....

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