Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

NC: 39% Burr, 37% Marshall (PPP 7/27-31)

Topics: north carolina , poll , senate

Public Policy Polling (D)
7/27-31/10; 624 likely voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
39% Burr (R), 37% Marshall (D), 7% Beitler (L) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Elaine Marshall: 23 / 19
Michael Beitler: 6 / 13

Job Approval / Disapproval
Sen. Hagan: 33 / 45 (chart)
Sen. Burr: 32 / 44 (chart)

 

Comments
Dave:

Does NC have a history of strong third party candidates? At first look, 7% for a Libertarian seems way too high.

____________________

tjampel:

Marshall still has plenty of upside. Burr continues to sink like a stone. I doubt he can get much lower, however. He's stable with Republicans, falling with Dems and also dropping with Independents. I assume he'll take to the air soon (if he hasn't already...those in NC can tell us who has Ads out at this point)

Marshal only has 65% support from Dems at this point (an 8% improvement from last month). Many of those Dems who haven't yet committed to her are very conservative, so I'm not sure how much more she can consolidate her base as she becomes better known and defined; however she's moving in the right direction, at least.

With these numbers Burr really is looking more like a generic Dem incumbent rather than a Republican one.

If Marshall can stay above water with her favorables as more people come to know her, and if Burr remains this unpopular through November she should win. This is definitely a race that DSCC has to put money into because that's the only way to keep Burr down...keep hammering him...and to consolidate the base by continuing to introduce Marshall to it in a positive way.

Let's not forget that Burr is occupying the "hot seat" in NC; it's changed parties for 5 races in a row. In 2006 or 2008 it would surely have been 6; Burr's got a big wind at his back but he's still moving very slowly and awkwardly towards the finish line. This should be an interesting race down to the wire.

____________________

Dustin Blackburn:

I live in NC, and Burr currently has an ad going across the state. I can tell you this, this is Marshall's race to lose. I am going to do whatever I can to make sure that she pulls this off. Burr has been a great failure to my state.

____________________

rdw4potus:

"Burr has been a great failure to my state."

That's what this race comes down to for me. Burr is absolutely crappy. Marshall would be an acceptably moderate alternative to that steaming pile of poo.

____________________

tjampel:

Happy to hear that Burr's Ad campaign is up and running and....running into these kind of numbers; even Harry Reid has better ones at this point.

Marshall needs really good discipline and management at this point. I hope she has a really good team and creative agency behind her.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

See all the conservative naysayers said the 2 point lead from the Marshall campaign was not accurate, but this poll shows that this one will be a nailbiter. This will be good because the RNC, may realize by the end of this year they tried to be the jack of all races and the master of just a few. Races like this, LA, KY are going to be tighter than expected. They have regret ever targeting popular Democratic senators like Murray and Feingold *( Or at least they are well liked until the bastards of the corporate world try to spread their 527 ads of misinformation and portray them as crooks. Swiftboating is what they do best)

Mccain to his credit, besides from Jeremiah Wright and some of Obama's Chicago style aquantances, really did a good job at being somewhat truthful, and focusing on this issues. Palin was picked, to be the distorter, since Mccain has a bit more integrity than most other GOP politicians.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

See all the conservative naysayers said the 2 point lead from the Marshall campaign was not accurate, but this poll shows that this one will be a nailbiter. This will be good because the RNC, may realize by the end of this year they tried to be the jack of all races and the master of just a few. Races like this, LA, KY are going to be tighter than expected. They have regret ever targeting popular Democratic senators like Murray and Feingold *( Or at least they are well liked until the bastards of the corporate world try to spread their 527 ads of misinformation and portray them as crooks. Swiftboating is what they do best)

Mccain to his credit, besides from Jeremiah Wright and some of Obama's Chicago style aquantances, really did a good job at being somewhat truthful, and focusing on this issues. Palin was picked, to be the distorter, since Mccain has a bit more integrity than most other GOP politicians.

____________________

Jdcopyboy:

I'm a native NC resident, and everything I've seen and heard about this race so far shows Marshall winning it. Burr just doesn't stand much of a chance - an ever-evolving NC is getting more and more liberal with each passing day. He doesn't have history or the current anti-incumbent trend on his side. Look at all those undecideds - what exactly are they undecided about? They're looking to flip this seat even yet again.

____________________

CHRIS MERKEY:

I think this will be easier to flip than either OH or MO now. Burr is really unpopular in the state.

____________________

Chantal:

I'd be interested in knowing whether people think 2010 turnout in NC will replicate the 2008 Obama/McCain vote ratio. Considering that Obama's approval has taken a dive in the state, Marshall's GOTV effort is miniscule compared to that of Obama's, and in general conservatives are more enthused about voting Republican in 2010 than they were in 2008, I personally suspect more McCain voters than Obama voters will come out to vote in November.

However, PPP's likely voter model predicts a 47/47 split. Does anyone actually believe this, or can anyone defend such a prediction?

____________________

AlanSnipes:

This is the fifth Republican held seat that is in play (MO, NH, Ohio, KY). If the Democrats can pickm off a couple of tthey are certain to maintain their majority.

____________________

jmartin4s:

The lib candidate will get same percentage on election night this November that the lib candidate got in Dole vs. Hagan and that is 3%

In terms of Elaine Marshall's chances of winning this, the opportunity is absolutely there for her. Wait till after labor day and see what the polls show then.

____________________

AlanSnipes:

This is the fifth Republican seat that is in play (MO, Ohio, NH, KY). If Democrats can pick up a couple of these they will hold their Senate Majority.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I wouldn't say NC is getting more liberal, but I would say it has moved more to the center, and part of that is it's technological growth and has become a mecca for transplants from the northeast, mid-atlantic and other places. This has changed the landscape a bit in NC.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

If Dems do a great job at exposing the GOP's lies, they could have as many as 57 seats in the senate. They'll lose ND, Ark, INdiana, and probably Delaware, but they could hold PA, Hold CO, Hold Nevada as well as the GOP's longshots, Wisconsin, Washington, CA, and WV.

Dems could lose PA or CO as well, but have a shot at NC, OH, KY or NH.

There are too many things that would have to happen for the GOP to take control of the senate. The House on the other hand they might have a shot at by picking up tons of seats regionally. THey could pick up 2 in Ark, 2 in Arizona and the reddest of the red states and districts, yet Dems could still have 54 seats in the senate. There are some interesting scenarios. Anything can happen at this point.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

My only worry about this race is that Marshall could be ahead because some conservatives are flirting with the Libertarian, but in many of these races, people decide not to throw away their vote, and move back to the regular candidate.

Oregon, Florida and Maine all have left wing third parties, and MN has the centrist INdependence party. Probably if those races tighten up you'll see voters decide likewise to not throw away their vote.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR