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NC: 43% Burr, 38% Marshall (PPP 8/27-29)

Topics: North Carolina , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/27-29/10; 724 likely voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(PPP release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
43% Burr (R), 38% Marshall (D), 6% Beitler (L) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Elaine Marshall: 24 / 21
Michael Beitler: 6 / 13

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 43 / 54 (chart)
Sen. Burr: 38 / 42 (chart)

 

Comments
Bob in SJ:

Burr's having trouble shaking Marshall, even in this environment. I wonder who's got the cash advantage?

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MikeyA:

Burr has the cash advantage but that could change.

If the Dems were smart they would write off OH, PA, and DE as losses and dump a boatload of cash here.

Of course they will probably waste it in a place like NV or KY where it won't have an affect on the race and they'll miss their lone opportunity for a pickup.

However this race is similar to NV in the incumbant seems at a low ceiling. The difference is in NV the challenger is shoring up the support of the base. Marshall isn't doing a good job of that here.

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Cederico:

I agree in part with you Mikey. I do think the DEMS need to think more strategically in deciding how to spend their limited funds.

I disagree on the races though. I think the DEMS (DSCC, outside groups) should concentrate on picking up the following GOP Held seats:

NC, KY, NH, MO and AK.

I think they should see if Meek in FL and Fisher in OH can raise some serious funds on their own to be competitive. If they can't raise more and improve their poll numbers then they have to be written off.

I think the DEMS/DSCC should fight tooth and nail to defend Democratic Held seats in the following states:

PA, DE, IL, WI, WA, CA, CO, NV, WV and CO.

They have to basically let ND and AR go and maybe even IN. Luckily DEM incumbents in WI, WA, NV and CA have significant cash on hand and might not need outside help from the party.

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tjampel:

I disagree on MO, Cederico, unless Carnahan is able to show a narrowing of the gap rather than a widening, which we've seen lately.

If that happens then I'd put resources into MO, especially since Blunt is so ethically challenged; he's a total sleaze...and he's also a total insider-beltway kind of guy.

I'd still put money into OH (at this point, unless things get worse) because I think Porter can be defined and attacked as a major architect of the failed Bush economic policy. Then, I suppose Sessions can tout Porter as a great man, since he's stated that this is what Republicans intend to implement...if at first you totally fail...try it again.

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cmbat:

Dems will win NV and CO. Should focus on KY and NC. And if Castle loses the Republican primary in DE, which I doubt but it is a possibility, then the Dems own that too. What nobody wants to cough up to here is that the big loser of November 2010 elections is not going to be the Republicans or the Democrats. It will be the Tea Party.

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jmartin4s:

Here's a random thought DSCC. Ditch that lame, political hack of a candidate you put up in Ohio and spend all the money you planned to allocate to that race in North Carolina. It's called strategy, try it sometime.

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Bostonguy1111 Bostonguy1111:

Burr has $6 millions CoH, Marshall less than $200K. No way the DSCC is going to spend money in a lost cause like this.

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jmartin4s:

Umm Elizabeth Dole heavily outspent Kay Hagan 2 to one in North Carolina in 2008. How'd that work out for Elizabeth Dole. And Richard Burr is no Liddy Dole. Burr has five million, Elizabeth Dole spent 18 million. If the Dscc spends money here they have a chance.

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Bigmike:

No amount of money is going to help Marshall as it stands today. The three candidates account for 87% of the vote in this poll. And it looks right on the money when you look at the chart page.

That means unless Burr's support erodes, Marshall needs to get right at 70% of the undecideds to overtake him. In NC. Right, that might happen.

Save the cash for someone else. Maybe BO in 2012.

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Huda:

for a well regarded and famous politician, Burr sure is not showing much strength. He's in Harry Reid territory....43% territory.

DNC has been out raising funds by the $$ millions against the RNC in a climate of low dem enthusiasm ....so spending money is not a problem for them this yr. Individual candidate fund does not tell us how they would fair. 5 point gap is nothing in politics, Marshall has a good chance taking this, but it depends on her tv ads and debating skills.

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