May 06, 2008

NC and IN Final Sensitivity Comparison

Both standard and sensitive estimators are agreed in North Carolina. In Indiana there is a little bit of room between them, but not enough to affect conclusions about the probable outcome (if the polls are right!)

The gyrations the Indiana sensitive estimator for Clinton goes through, thanks to variability in polls and relatively few polls, is a good warning that the sensitive estimator may just be a bit too ready to chase after noise.

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

-- Charles Franklin

May 06, 2008 in The 2008 Race

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