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NC: McCain 41, Obama 35 (Elon-9/15-16)

Topics: PHome

Elon University
9/15-16/08; 411 Adults, 4.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

North Carolina
McCain 41, Obama 35
Sen: Hagan 35 (D), Dole (R-i) 35
Gov: McCrory (R) 37, Perdue (D) 35

 

Comments
AmericaFirst:

See you later Liddy Dole.

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Sarah McPlain:

Lots of undecideds and big MOE here but the trend is our friend. GOBAMA!!!

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Hope Reborn:

when you take a poll and get a 76% response rate, you either need to tighten your screen, ask the question better, or stop taking polls....

nice, waste of time.

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RaleighNC:

Elon polls are trash. I live in NC, so I know of what I speak.

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RaleighNC:

If pollster.com decides to use this poll it should be weighted very, very lightly.

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NW Patrick:

I still say, Obama will lose NC of course but this should be VERY scarey for the McCain campaign in states like CO, VA, and OH.

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carl29:

Judging by the big, big % of undecided in all the races, I would take this poll with a big grain of salt.

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palinisbushwithlipstick:

These numbers are strange - a large number of undecideds. 30% in the senate race? huh?


looks to be a crappy pollster.......

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bmcavan:

Wow...that was useless.

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Jacob S:

Okay, I cranked the numbers after another week of polling and I now have some new comments to make. As always, I encourage you to look at my website (people.carleton.edu/~schakj) or my brother's website (race-to-270.com) for more information. Here are my thoughts:

1. Obama has now retaken the lead in the popular vote. I believe that Obama is up by 2-3 points, which indicates that he has had a good week.

2. The bottom line in the Electoral College has not changed. Obama still leads McCain 269-242-27. Lot's of states have shifted around, especially red states to dark red and dark blue states to light blue. However, the basic structure of the race has not changed. Obama is still poised to win all blue/purple states (with the possible exception of NH) and McCain is still vulnerable in at least half a dozen red states.

2.1 My electoral projection is overly pessimistic for Obama, because of the lag between state trends and national trends on pollster.com. For instance, based on state polling, Obama is only expected to win by 1.1 percent of the popular vote, but I think that Obama is clearly 2-3 points ahead. So, in the next week, the state trends will almost certainly shift ever more favorably to Obama.

3. McCain is wasting votes in red states. He now holds safe leads in eight states. Obama only has safe leads in five states, so that his support is more spread-out among the blue, purple, and light red states. This pattern indicates another strategic advantage for Obama.

4. As I suspected, Obama is beginning to assert his tactical superiority over McCain. While Obama has lost ground in dark blue and dark red states, he has solidified states that are at serious risk of voting for McCain (MI, IA, PA, and NM) and has made surprising gains key red states (IN, WV, MT, LA, and NV). These subtle but important shifts are an ominous sign for McCain.

4.1 Some garbage polling is coming out of some states like MN, WA, and WI (maybe NH as well). Just consider: if Obama is ahead in IA, how the heck can he be even with McCain in MN or WI (which are MORE liberal states)? The same principle goes for OR and WA. Over time, I suspect that we will see a lot of these moderately blue states "come back home" to Obama.

5. I am now convinced that if Obama wins CO, he will be the next President. Also, I am now convinced that Obama is 2-3 points ahead in CO.

6. Last week I said that the dabate will NOT matter. This week I will claim that the VP debates will (probably) not matter. In making this claim, I am making three assumptions: 1) Sarah Palin is being coached around the clock, 2)the expectations for Palin are going to be arbitrarily close to zero, and 3) Joseph Biden does not make the mistake of "bullying" Palin during the debate. If Palin can present some semblance of competence and Biden sticks to attacking McCain, the debate will not do much to change the race. Therefore...

7. Following my previous theory, I will now make the Declaration that Barack Obama will be the next President of the United State, assuming that Obama does not make a major mistake. Obama has remained at least even with McCain through the last couple of weeks and I believe that we saw the the high tide of McCain's campaign last week. Now, Obama's hard work on gaining an organizational advantage is going to takeover.

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jamesia:

That's about what I'd expect in NC... however, it's less than a 500 person sample and 4.9% error. This is a bad poll...

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cabos101:

Raleigh is right, Elon polls are trash. They always have like 20%+ undecided. They're almost as bad as Clemson polls that showed Obama with like 27% the week before the SC primary.

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1magine:

400 adults polled - with more than 50% NO RESPONSE. Sorry - this is just a 12 y.o. shouting at people in a mall somewhere. Ignore and move on with your night.

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freedomreigns:

I agree that this poll should be looked at with great caution. In fact, I would recommend completely ignoring it until many more NC polls come out. Then look back and see how it does. There just cannot be 20% of North Carolinians undecided this late in the race.

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Connor:

If there's a person I hate more than a right-winging fascist, it's an "undecided voter."

Apparently, 25% of NC's electorate is such a voter.

Dumbest excuse: "Yeah, but he doesn't say WHAT he's going to do! Or how!" Translation: "I'm dumb and lazy so by giving you this answer, I sound like a serious person who's COMPLETELY living up to his or her civic duties as a voter whereas the candidates are not."

Or

"I'm waiting to see which way all my peers go. I don't want to stand out."

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Stuart:

Thanks Jacob. Good stuff.

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KipTin:

So this poll is garbage because Obamanation elitist do not like 20% undecided? That means 80% are very sure. Sounds like enough for a poll to me. Shows 6 points to McCain's favor.

So which North Carolina polls are acceptable to you?

CNN: McCain 48/Obama 47 (+1)
ARG: McCain 52/Obama 41 (+11)
Daily Kos: McCain 55/Obama 38 (+17)
Civitas: McCain 47/Obama 44 (+3)
PPP: McCain 48/Obama 44 (+4)
SurveyUSA: McCain 58/Obama 38 (+20)

I would think that Obamanation would find this poll more in line with their idea of where Obama should be rather than resorting to calling NC voters "dumb and lazy."

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KipTin:

You know Jacob... you have made some really strange assumptions. For example:

1. "Just consider: if Obama is ahead in IA, how the heck can he be even with McCain in MN or WI (which are MORE liberal states)?"

First, how do you define "more liberal?" Are you gaging it in increments of tenths?

Iowa: 2004 Bush +0.7-- 2000 Gore +0.3
Minnesota: 2004 Kerry +3.5-- 2000 Gore +2.4
Wisconsin: 2004 Kerry +.04-- 2000 Gore +0.2

Obama has a "special relationship" with Iowa. It is called supporting agricultural and corn ethanol subsidies, where McCain has been very outspoken against BIG AG.

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palinisbushwithlipstick:

please don't feed the trolls like boomshat. they still believe in creationism and that palin is "qualified". LOL.


Just for everyone's amusement, more retarded blatherings from the idiot herself-


http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/quote-for-th-24.html

Good Lord. After that craptastic excrement, I now fully expect her to utter something along the lines of:


"Um, like such as ...the Iraq ....and the maps for South Africa...um like such as..."


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palinisbushwithlipstick:

Great stuff from sullivan-


How Extremist Is Sarah Palin?


No Biblical literalist can believe in evolution. So either Sarah Palin does not hold the faith she says she does or she denies one of the core theories of scientific modernity:

"Another valley activist, Philip Munger, says that Palin also helped push the evangelical drive to take over the Mat-Su Borough school board. "She wanted to get people who believed in creationism on the board," said Munger, a music composer and teacher. "I bumped into her once after my band played at a graduation ceremony at the Assembly of God. I said, 'Sarah, how can you believe in creationism -- your father's a science teacher.' And she said, 'We don't have to agree on everything.'

"I pushed her on the earth's creation, whether it was really less than 7,000 years old and whether dinosaurs and humans walked the earth at the same time. And she said yes, she'd seen images somewhere of dinosaur fossils with human footprints in them."


If you thought Christianism reached its apex under Bush, wait for Palin. She will, of course, lie if asked, depending on the audience. It's what she does.


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Jacob S:

@KipTin

Umm, Iowa voted for Bush in 2004. Therefore, Iowa is slightly more conservative.

Also, I am from MN and I can tell you that AG is huge in MN and dairy is huge in WI. So, I do not see the difference between IA and the other two states.

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KipTin:

Like I said.. increments in 10th. Bush only won by 0.7% in 2004. And Gore won by 0.3% in 2000. Wow, a whole swing of ONE percent to CONSERVATIVE.

My point is that your "more liberal" assumption is weak, weak, weak. You need to look at Obama's relationship with Iowa. As well as realize that a large area of Iowa is within the Chicago media market. They are very "familiar" with Obama.

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Jacob S:

I think that the media market consideration is a good point. I think that the election is close in IN for the same reason. My point is really that MN and WI (especially MN) are AT LEAST as liberal IA. So, polls that show these states deviating by 5+ points from IA--in favor of McCain--simply do not make sense.

This scenario would be like if McCain were well ahead in NM and slightly ahead in national polling, but dead-even in CO. Would the deviation between the two states be because of the AZ media market in NM? Perhaps, but I would be skeptical of the polling in CO, since CO is historically more conservative than NM.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

I'll throw my voice in with the 'Crap Poll' crowd. I would like to think the Democrats are doing that well in North Carolina, but I doubt it.

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Jewelry_maker:

I do canvassing every week to determine which presidential candidate a person is voting for in NC. For the number of actual contacts made I would say 50% undecided is right on. I am amazed and just shake my head, day after day.

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damitajo1:

a non-poll

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cinnamonape:
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