Civitas Institute (R)
9/17-20/08; 600 RV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
McCain 45, Obama 45, Barr 1
Sen: Dole (R-i) 43, Hagan (D) 41, Cole (L) 5
Gov: McCrory (R) 43, Perdue (D) 41, Munger (L) 3
I'm not sure anyone would have guessed North Carolina as a battleground state. My guess is that Obama is planning to stretch McCain to the breaking point, then zero in on the states he's been planning on taking all along, my guess is that Florida is a ploy
Posted on September 23, 2008 10:45 AM
Previous poll result (August)...
August – McCain 46, Obama 40, Barr 2
Aligns with PPP poll and Rasmussen poll (within sampling error.)
Posted on September 23, 2008 10:49 AM
This poll is old and should be discounted!!! Oh, wait...it has Dole and McCrory ahead...nevermind. I like this poll!
Posted on September 23, 2008 10:51 AM
What makes you think FL is a ploy? Obama is spending millions in TV ads in FL. He is visiting the state often and will be there the next 3 days preparing for the debates. That it an enormous amount of resources at this time to be a ploy. He is dead serious on winning FL and I think he can do it. Latest Mason Dixon poll out today has him up by 2 in FL.
Posted on September 23, 2008 10:52 AM
Friends in NC tell me it definitely is in play. There is a lot of Obama enthusiasm. A few more polls like this and people will start believing it really can be won and that will create a momentum all its own. As people worry about the narrow margins in the traditional blue states, ask yourself if Hillary would have had any chance in NC, VA or CO? Obama has extended the Republicans to the breaking point. I agree with the poster above that he will be sure to lock up those states to get him to 270 as the election nears. The rest will be gravy.
I find it hard to believe that McCain has 50% of 18-25, while Obama has only 36%. And then Obama leads in the 56 and older crowd. There is no way 50% of 18-25 year olds will vote McCain in any state.
Posted on September 23, 2008 10:57 AM
Here are the polls out of NC for the past week or so:
Civitas - Tied
Rasmussen - McCain +3
PPP - Tied
Elon - McCain +6
CNN/Time - McCain +1
4 out of 5 show an actual or statistical tie given MOE.
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:00 AM
NC should be yellow on the map.
This is not a bounce - it is momentum. I believe we can thank Sara Palin for this momentum.
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:02 AM
It's downrightly ludicrous how Republicans on this site are trying to spin all polls showing Obama leading
How in the world they can argue such an evidence, it's UNBELIEVABLE!
After the Palin pick I admitted the momentum had shifted to McCain, now with this whole economy turmoil they still find a reason to believe that McCain is somewhat leading, lol!
With this new poll showing a tight race in NC, let's see how they're gonna spin this one
Now we know why McCain is stepping up his effort in North Carolina, unbelievable :-).
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:04 AM
I'm looking at Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. If Obama can hold the Kerry States where he is leading right now, and one of these four fall its over for McCain.
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:10 AM
The Reps are sweating now!
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:11 AM
For deep red NC to fall to Obama will be a travesty for the Rs. This is the same state that produced Jesse Helms and didn't budge an inch when Edwards ran with Kerry. For Obama to be so close must say something about the R-brand this time around. If the Rs are saying that people are blindly swayed by the words of the Ds, then the Rs, I feel, are implicitly demeaning their voters for being "so stupid to believe in fluff". Assume your voters are rational, my R friends, and you'll perhaps run a better campaign in 2012.
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:15 AM
McCain shouldn’t waste anytime in NC. I don’t care with the polls say, if Dole and McCrory are still winning then he is a shoo-in. I am actually shocked McCrory is winning, is Perdue that bad of a candidate?
Looking at that Minnesota senate race…according to Mason-Dixon, Coleman is leading Franken by 7. Maybe McCain has a chance there. They have a Rep. Gov and 1 Rep. Senator. I think NH, MN and PA are the best pick-up opportunities for McCain.
On the flip side, I don’t see how he wins in WI and MI. Think about it a, Dem Gov, and two Dem US Senators each. Should be exciting…let the debates begin.
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:16 AM
C'mon now. Thank Sarah Palin for Obama's momentum? Be realistic...you know it's the events of last week.
Palin's the only reason McCain is not Bob Dole at this point. Let's try to be honest about the situation.
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:21 AM
Now it starts from Drudge(ABC NEWS):
Lauer was talking about how Obama hit Sen. McCain for flip-flopping on the AIG bailout -- saying he opposed it one day then announce he supported it the next day.
But, as Lauer pointed out, scarcely three minutes after McCain said he opposed the AIG bailout last week, "in an interview with Meredith Vieira, Joe Biden, your running mate was asked the exact same question, 'should the federal government bailout AIG?' And he said, 'No, the federal government should not bailout AIG.'" (As we noted at the time.) "And I think that in that situation," Obama said, "I think Joe should have waited as well."
"But it's the kind of thing that drives people crazy about politics," Lauer said. "It sounds like you were trying to score some political points against John McCain using his words, when your own running mate had used very similar words."
"No, hold on a second Matt," Obama said. "I think what drives people crazy about politics is the fact that somebody like John McCain who for 26 years has been an advocate for deregulation, for 26 years has said the market is king and then starts going out there suggesting somehow that he's a populist who's been railing against Wall Street and regulation -- that's what drives people crazy about politics
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:24 AM
Do you really beleive that a man, who wants to talk without preconditions to people like Chavez and Ahmadinedjad could win the ellecitons in the USA?! Come on... Is this the change that you want?
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:48 AM
I wouldn't call NC "deep red." Helms was somewhat of an enigma and won by very narrow margins in most of his races. NC presently has about 900,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. The Gov. and Lt. Gov. are Dems and the State House and State Senate are controlled by Dems. NC has only had 2 Republican Governors in 107 years (and only 1 in the last 30 years)!
The problem has been translating the Democratic dominance at the state level to national elections. Many NC Democrats tend to view the national Democrats as too liberal.
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:56 AM
"Do you really beleive that a man, who wants to talk without preconditions to people like Chavez and Ahmadinedjad could win the ellecitons in the USA?! Come on... Is this the change that you want?"
Yes, I would hope so, being as part of the reason that a large part of the world hates the USA is because it takes on attitudes like yours. What harm can come of talking with somebody? Things can only get better as a result.
Posted on September 23, 2008 11:58 AM
The "world" hated the USA every tiem when a republican is a president and like the USA when they have president like Carter. We know the results of both politics....
Posted on September 23, 2008 12:02 PM
A mean Carter and Reagan...
Posted on September 23, 2008 12:07 PM
I mean Reagan and Carter...
Posted on September 23, 2008 12:08 PM
NC has become a top-tier pick-up opportunity for Obama.
This poll (from a Republican pollster) shows Obama tied with McCain in this southern red state. It becomes the 4th recent respectable NC poll in a row (excluding a poll that sampled only 411 adults) that has found the race there to be a statistical tie. The estimated true figures of 2 of these polls have shown an exact tie. The one poll showing McCain with a modest lead (right-leaning Rasmussen found him ahead by 3 points) did not include southerner and former Republican Bob Barr in its questioning. (Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in NC.)
Amazingly, all of these polls were in the field before Obama's visit to NC on Sunday.
Finally, note that pollsters tended to under-estimate Obama's support in NC before the primary there (by 4-5 points). See:
Posted on September 23, 2008 1:19 PM
McCain shouldn't even worry about NC...instead he should be spending his money on California and Alabama. Alkso he should be telling the RNC to give more support to Ted Stevens in Alaska.
Posted on September 23, 2008 2:47 PM
Sarah Palin is not helping McCain. She is hurting McCain among male voters, independants, and among our Democrat base of voters. Obama still leads among women voters by double digits.
McCain and Palin have no plan for the economy, and no plan to end this war in Iraq. A Republican is a Republican. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.
Obama is leading by 7% in Colorado in a Public Policy poll today. If Obama wins Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa (where he has double digit leads) and holds on to our blue states that were won in 2004 then Obama will win the election!
VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!
Posted on September 23, 2008 4:32 PM
Not a good sign for McCain....Obviously, Mac would have liked NC, VA, IN, and other Republican-leaning states to be safe in his corner...This gives Obama the opportunity to push harder in OH and PA while McCain is sweating it out in typical red states.
Posted on September 23, 2008 4:36 PM
Civitas cross-tabs are very different from standard demographic breakouts. Also, take a look at gender and tell me how this is tied. This is a difficult set of data to sort through. Based on a quick read, I have to reserve any conclusion. I would prefer some other NC polls with solid and comparable cross-tabs.
Posted on September 23, 2008 10:24 PM
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