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NC: McCain 47-Obama 44 (DemCorps-8/20-26)

Topics: PHome

Democracy Corps (D) /
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)
8/20-26/08; 852 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

North Carolina
McCain 47, Obama 44, Barr 4
Sen: Hagan (D) 50, Dole (R-i) 45
Gov: Perdue (D) 46, McCrory (R) 46

 

Comments
jamesia:

Hagan passes Dole... it's been tight for a while, maybe Hagan is getting some traction?

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political_junki:

47-43 has been rock solid for a while now...

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Robi:

Yeah NC was in play for a while but I think it's slowly becoming apparent that it's gonna be McCain's

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Scott W:

It is finaly becmoing obvious to most people in America. Dole = Bush = McCain = Thomson = Cheney = OLD WHITE CONSERVATIVE. Look at teh repug convention floor... it is a view of the past. Does not look like America in 2008...

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Cephme:

It is dead even if without the leaners and this was taken BEFORE the DNC Convention. Not good news for McCain.

I must say I am pretty surprised on the senate side. I realize Hagan was keeping it close, but the lead?!?!?!

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thoughtful:

This poll was conducted pre-convention and appears to be a little skewd in 2004 26% AA voted this sample is 20% AA. 10% of this poll is 18-29 against 14% (2004) 22% over 65 against 13% (2004).

This leads me to conclude that Obama is actually ahead in NC.

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sherman:

I wouldn't get overly excited by the results of a partisan pollster unless it is PPP.

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Andrew_in_California:

This state came out in droves for Obama vs. Hillary I think smart investments in this state would be wise.

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freedomreigns:

I agree about the Senate. The DSCC Is spending a fortune against Dole. The RNSC better starting spending or they may lose another seat.

On the national, I have to admit I am surprised it is so tight. This is a red state with Obama within the margin of error before the conventions. It is also before the Palin pick which might help turn out the rural vote.

As always, I'll say every poll is a baseline only until the debates.

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Paul:

Second poll in a row where the DEM for Senate is ahead. This would be a significant upset.

For President, 3 points looks about right for McCain. Will be interesting to see if Obama tries to put NC in play. Clearly VA is up for grabs and Florida may be --- so will Obama spend time in NC and FL in addition to VA? None of the other states in the Southeast look possible for Obama.

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brambster:

I have always thought that this Senate race was the sleeper race for the Dems this cycle, and I have said that before.

I don't however trust candidate/state party sponsored polls at all. They always poll, but they also use polls to create news and provide an impression that is favorable to their candidate (otherwise they would never release the polls).

That said, I also know that Rasmussen is pretty much the same thing for the Republicans on a national level. It's a shame that sites that discuss polls and media organizations, allow Rasmussen to cloud out other pollsters with their big volume, biased methods and results.

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Evolve:

@brambster:

I to doubt the validity of some of the research groups. Rasmussen is one of the worst. Pollster.com put up a pretty good article on this a couple weeks ago.

/blogs/how_pollsters_affect_poll_resu.html

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brambster:

@Evolve

Yes, I know. I practically begged for it :)

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Obama Maniac:

Looks like Hagan has some traction in the last few polls.

One thing I find a little odd: the cross-tabs show only 10% of the respondents were 18-29. North Carolina has a ton of young professionals and college students - I wouldn't be surprised if the actual electorate were 15% or more in terms of the 18-29 crowd this year.

When one adds Bob Barr and Ralph Nader into the mix, by the way, the numbers are 47% McCain 46% Obama.

Very odd that 42% of respondents do not know what Obama's religion is. Sigh.

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Obama Maniac:

My pick for a sleeper this year, by the way, is Georgia. Watch for 80% black turnout. If that happens, Obama will take Georgia.

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