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NC: McCain 58, Obama 38 (SurveyUSA-9/6-8)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
9/6-8/08; 671 LV, 3.8%
Mode: IVR

North Carolina
McCain 58, Obama 38
(August: McCain 49, Obama 45)

Sen: Dole (R-i) 48, Hagan (D) 40, Cole (L) 7
(August: Dole 46, Hagan 41, Cole 7)

Gov: McCrory (R) 49, Perdue (D) 41, Munger (L) 5
(August: Perdue 47, McCrory 44, Munger 5)

 

Comments
Billy Chunge:

SurveyUSA is a fraud. They had clinton tied with Obama in the primaries and Obama won NC by 14. Of all the posters out there, this is the most unreliable of them all. Even though I'm an Obama supporter, I'm starting to have some respect for Rasmussen. Some of his polling questions are suspect but when it comes to the real polls, I think he's pretty objective.

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serpounce:

Jesus, what's going on here?! I never thought that Obama was going to win NC, but this is amazing. We'll see if it's substantiated by other polls.

The silver lining for Obama might be that if we look at this in conjunction with the Gallup tracking details that showed that McCain has made the biggest gains in the south, perhaps this is further evidence that McCain primarily got a bounce in areas that were already red.

OTOH perhaps we are seeing the start of an Obama implosion, Dems are notoriously bad at fighting their way back from a deficit, if Obama doesn’t regain some ground soon he could be in serious trouble.

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Angus Mc:

Something tells me this was just an odd sample. No movement in the Senatorial race, but an 11 point swing in the Governor's race also?

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RaleighNC:

That result seems a bit high, but it wouldn't surprise me if McCain wins by 10 or more. NC democrats are not Chicago democrats, just as NC Republicans are not Maine Republicans ;-) All McCain has to do is carry Charlotte metro, keep it close in the uber liberal Triangle (Raleigh/Durham) and it's his because the more conservative Triad will offset the Triangle. Any progress by Obama in Eastern NC will be offset by the voters of western NC, including Asheville.

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Napoleon Complex:

Must have been polling at Ft. Bragg. Although NC is probably still a red state, this result seems off. I live in rural NC and most of the people I know are supporting Obama.

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Edward:

Well I live in NC in the rural area as well and i've yet to find one person supporting Obama, this state is going crazy over Sarah Palin, they love her to death! This is still a very conservative state and McCain will win by at least 10 points. Don't forget Bush carried this state by 12 in 04.

By the way the Obama campaign announced today that they were pulling out of Georgia and putting money into NC! Go right ahead Obama, waste even more of your millions and millions of dollars into a state you have no chance of winning, just like Montana and the Dakota's, all that money town the tube!

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Tybo:

outlier,,,not valid at all

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brambster:

Absolutely impossible that it swung this much. Also, in 2004 Bush beat Kerry by 12 points. Other polls have been showing that Democrats are neck and neck in both the Senate and gubernatorial races, but this one gives the Republicans 8 points in each.

I wouldn't argue with a 10 point McCain lead in a North Carolina poll (though I suspect better on election day), but this is clearly skewed.

Although states are polled differently, this puts into question SurveyUSA's results in both Washington and Virginia as well. My best guess is that it was due to SurveyUSA switching from a RV to LV result, and like USAToday/Gallup, they may have a very poor method.

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I also live in rural NC, and to me this looks like a total outlier. McCain is probably up by about 5.

I have found that many of the McCain voters are completely uneducated on the facts and just concerned about taxes, guns, and being closet racists

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Gary Kilbride:

This poll is obviously nonsense. The North Carolina margin in an even race nationally, when everything settles, would be in the high single digits or low double digits. The state was +13 red in the partisan index in '96 and '00, and would have been identical in '04 minus Edwards. He was worth the predictable 3-3.5 points and dropped the partisan index to +9.98 red.

But it's more verification that the sites relying exclusively on state polls have been doing a campaign long disservice to progressive sites by ignorantly pretending that deep red states were in play for Obama. I've been lashed on those progressive sites for insisting that Indiana, North Carolina, the Dakotas, Montana, Georgia, Alaska and maybe one or two more were never in play. You can't embrace recency at the expense of long term foundational truths. Republicans aren't going to magically win states with 24% or higher self-identified liberals, and Democrats have no shot at states with 40% or higher self-identified conservatives. That's only feasible in a landscape changing election with a huge national gap, hardly descriptive of 2008 and never logical in a modern open race for the presidency.

There are some states with legit slow demographic shift, like Virginia and Colorado. Those states can react more decisively than the nation as a whole when both moves are in the same direction. But the vast majority of states stay true to their partisan index and liberal/conservative tendencies.

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Andrew_in_California:

To nitpick this poll only because of its supreme swing (not as an Obama supporter ;p) The sampling populations of Raleigh, Charlotte, and South and Coast doesn't give much creedence to the more liberal areas of the state like Greensboro, Chapel Hill, and Asheville. Although McCain only was 4 points ahead last month using the same methodology I could only wonder what sort of opening for error could exist for a state that has many different cultural hubs. I think this is the reason Virgina has been polling more consistently

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player:

Since when is Asheville a liberal city? I'm from Asheville; it isn't a liberal city. It is very conservative. Charlotte is a little left of center. NC is about 6 points in the red and it will stay that way.

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Sergei Groinka:

Nice to hear that McCrory is ahead of Perdue.

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faithhopelove:

This poll is almost certainly an outlier.

In 2004, about 59% of NC voters were women; SUSA thinks the number this year will be about 52%. In 2004, 13% of NC voters were 65+; SUSA thinks the number this year will be about 5% higher (it's McCain's strongest demographic). See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/NC/P/00/epolls.0.html

From this poll's crosstabs, some unlikely numbers: McCain ahead by 3 among young voters; Obama getting only 86% of the African-American vote.

Also consider these things: SUSA took this poll at the height of McCain's Palin/convention bounce, SUSA doesn't call (disproportionately young) cell phone only voters, SUSA doesn't include the name of southerner Bob Barr in its polls, and SUSA under-estimated Obama's support just before the NC primary by 9 points. See:
/polls/nc/08-nc-dem-pres-primary.html

Certainly, McCain is ahead in NC; but not by 20 points.

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damitajo1:

I believe this is an outlier, but please don't blast SurveyUSA. It is one of the best on average....But no survey is perfect.

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damitajo1:

PS: And I never bought the hype of Obama in NC. McCain will sweep the Deep South, the Southwest, and the Mountain States.

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blueboy2000:

I'm from Charlotte, and if I were the ABC affiliate in the Triangle (who commissioned this poll), I'd be hanging my head in shame. This poll makes no sense.

For one thing, the party ID is out of whack for North Carolina--we're a 45% Dem/33% Repub state. And McCain up three among young people?

I thought SUSA was a fairly good pollster, but they dropped the ball on this one. "Outlier" is being rather kind to it.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Biden says that while he believes life begins “at the moment of conception,” it would inappropriate to impose that view on others in a pluralistic society.

Using his logic, what other "views" should we fail to impose on Americans?

The non-muslim view that women are equal to men? The non-muslim view that Jews are equal to Muslims? The non-NAMBLA view that boys should be protected from pedofiles?

The folks in North Carolina know a double-talking phony when they hear one.

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Inkan1969:

NeverMetAnHonestLib:

"Women are unequal to men" is not a Muslim view, (These traditions with women existed before Islam), except for more conservative sects. And that belief is hardly exclusively Muslim: Remember the Southern Baptist Convention's declaration that wives must submit to husbands?

ALL religions have the view that all other religions are not equal to them. That is implied in the notion that one's own religion is the "one true way". But in reality most people are reasonable enough to apply that only to their own lives, respecting other beliefs.

Who was talking about abortion here? You injected that subject in here out of the blue, and then threw in some convoluted analogies. And then you accuse someone else of being a double talking phony....

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atreides:

Why can't we get the LV models that these guys are using. Maybe the kids will behave historically but I don't think that there's anyway that AA's will only out 55%-60% of RV. I would think that it would be more like 75%-80%. It's like theres a conspiracy with LV polls to create a sense of hopelessness in AA's in order to limit turnout. Every LV model I see with the exception of Rasmussen (because I don't see his RV results) show this big swing between RV and LV. For this candidate, that makes no sense.

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joeflier747:

are people insane or is it just me? this woman will be a heartbeat away from the oval office to a man who is 72 and has had cancer 3 times! she is a far right wacko who doesn't even think global warming exists! WTF!!!! she is against sex education in school, birth control and abortion even in cases of rape or incest! my god people!! what the hell is wrong with you!!! i haven't even mentioned how the republicans have completely screwed over our economy during the past 7 years.

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McCain will carry the South (including FL & VA) in lock-step which means the Dems must carry 70% of the remainder of the electorate. When you take into account the culturally conservative West (i.e. OK, AZ, KS, NE...) that really only leaves the Mid-West to fight for and maybe CO and NM.

This race has the potential to break open widely for McCain because of his solid-South advantages and because he (and Palin it appears) is palatable to the "middle" like MI and PA. Right now Obama is on defense and if he has to defend blue states, that will not be a good sign. So far it appears McCain is taking red states (VA, FL, MO) off the table and making this a fight for CO, NM, PA, MI, WI & NH. That is a whole bunch of blue electors being fought for than is red.

Also, remember, in the past 100 years, if the GOP carries MO and OH...they win. They are bellwethers. When are the Dems going to look at history and realize the formula for success. Pick a Southerner who is palatable to the South in order to pick off a few Southern states. That makes it a whole lot easier for the Dems to win...otherwise, the fight is on blue territory. A black liberal from the North is going to be un tenable is a lot of this country. Pick a winner next time...Clinton, Carter, Johnson...huh, all Southerners! Obama will lose in 2008 and the Dems will wonder why in God's name they continue to beat their heads against a wall and lose...why, because they ignore 40% of the country and write them off as ignorant or unsophisticated which makes them never vote Democrat. It is happening again. In 2012, the DNC might want to think Phil Bredesen (Gov. TN), Mark Warner (Gov. VA), Mike Easley (Gov. NC). Follow the path of least resistance ... welcome the South and put it in play if you want to win!

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