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NC: Obama 44, McCain 42 (Elon-9/29-10/2)

Topics: PHome

Elon University
9/29 - 10/2/08; 477 Adults, 4.6%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

North Carolina
Obama 44, McCain 42
Sen: Hagan (D) 37, Dole (R-i) 35
Gov: McCrory (R) 37, Perdue (D) 33

 

Comments
Commander_King:

Nice

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jatchwa:

Astonishingly high number of undecideds in that Senate race.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

Hmmm. Democrats and Republicans equally weighted at 39% apiece, but Obama's still up by two? Check out NC's voter reg. stats (D-45, R-32): http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_main.asp

Or see the Civitas crosstabs (D-46, R-35): http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/files/Sept%20Pres%20CTs.pdf

This is not a good result for John McCain.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

One other thing: this is a poll of NC residents, not registered voters (much less likely voters) so I'm not sure it's worth a heckuva lot.

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BOOMFAIL:

Obama will win NC, and Dole will go down with the ship!

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AmericaFirst:

I agree this poll is pretty much worthless, but it is the third in a row showing O ahead.

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Trosen:

I doubt many non-registered voters or those not planning to vote would bother taking this survey.

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Trosen:

Ok.. unless I'm missing something, the poll seems to be about who the respondents thought would better handle the economy (the 44-42 split). Not that that # will vary very differently from how people will vote. It doesn't say who would you vote for for president.

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Gary Kilbride:

High number of undecideds throughout that North Carolina sample.

I realize there's not much focus on gov races but that's 4 or 5 consecutive polls with McCrory leading, after Perdue had a small edge previously. If North Carolina is going to turn blue on a federal level it needs Perdue to pull this out. At that point we'd have two governors named Perdue, one of each party, and neither in Indiana.:)

Democrats will likely lose governorships in 2010, since many of their holds right now are in unlikely states like Kansas, Tennessee, Arizona, Oklahoma. Consequently it's important to pull out the tight open races like Perdue/McCrory.

The gas shortage and how each candidate is handling it continues to be a huge issue in North Carolina.

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faithhopelove:

In the last 6 polls of NC (conducted by 5 different pollsters and all in the field after McCain's Palin/convention bounce had faded), Obama has led in 4 and McCain has led in 1, with 1 tie. Neither candidate has led by more than 3 points. McCain's only lead was in an ARG poll, which ranked 26th among all pollsters during the primary season. See:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/

Pollsters consistently under-estimated Obama's margin of victory in NC before the primary there. Only 1 pollster got it right--Zogby! ARG under-estimated Obama's MOV by 6 points, Rasmussen by 5 points. PPP, which is based in NC, was off by only 2 points. See:
/polls/nc/08-nc-dem-pres-primary.html

PPP's most recent NC poll has Obama up 2 points. PPP includes Bob Barr's name in its horserace question, unlike most other pollsters. As a southerner and former Republican who opposed the bailout, Barr is likely to win at least 2-3% of the vote in NC. (Ralph Nader is not on the ballot there.) Barr will hurt McCain, and his presence on the ballot means Obama can win the state with just 48-49% of the vote.

McCain has started advertising in NC, but he has not been visiting the state. Undecideds may feel neglected by him and break for Obama. Part of politics is showing up. (Palin is scheduled to visit the state on Tuesday.)

As for GOTV efforts, Obama's ground game in NC appears superior to McCain's. Obama has 44 field offices in the state; McCain has 18.

NC has emerged as a 1st-tier pickup opportunity for Obama. His internal polling must show the same, as he heads to NC tomorrow, where he will prep for the next debate through Monday, with 1 official campaign event scheduled for Sunday. (McCain returns to AZ today for his debate prep; he is off the campaign trail until the Tuesday debate in TN.) Obama also has more folks in NC personally invested in his candidacy; he leads the money race in NC counties by almost 2 to 1.


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faithhopelove:

Here's a link for the money chase:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26833397/

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political_junki:

Ofcouse I'd like any poll with Obama up to be right but this poll seems worthless to me...

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dopper0189:

Good point FaithHopeLove

"McCain has started advertising in NC, but he has not been visiting the state. Undecideds may feel neglected by him and break for Obama. Part of politics is showing up. (Palin is scheduled to visit the state on Tuesday.)"

North Carolina is a state that votes heavily on constituent services. That's how Helms won races he had no business winning, as much as or even more then his playing the race card did. Dole is in trouble because she doesn't have good services (or so I'm told). McCain by not doing any retail politicting has done himself a diservice. Every state has it quirks and NC has this one.

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Lompe:

Those are wrong numbers. Here are the real ones:
President: Democratic party: 38,9, Republican party: 38,8
Senate: Democratic party: 37, Republican party: 34,6

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/100308.pdf

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Such a small sample of "adults". So much for those first time, close to 18y.o., voters getting a say.

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Flashlight:

Obama now dominant in the three best barbecue states in America:

VA
NC

and...

(wait for it....)

IL

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brambster:

This poll is about who would better handle the economy (the topline quoted here), and who which party is more responsible for the economic problems. This is not a presidential election poll. It shouldn't be listed here.

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RaleighNC:

ELON POLLS ALWAYS = EPIC FAIL I DON'T CARE WHO'S ON TOP.

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