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NC: Obama 47, McCain 45 (PPP-9/28-29)


Public Policy Polling (D)

9/28-29/08; 1,041 LV, 3%
Mode: IVR

North Carolina
Obama 47, McCain 45, Barr 3
(9/19: Obama 46, McCain 46, Barr 5)

Sen:
Hagan 46, Dole 41, Cole 6
(9/19: Hagan 46, Dole 38, Cole 6)

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

I just got a closer look at the crosstabs of the just-released ppp polls showing +2 for Obama in NC.But I was surprised that the party id weightings is : 48% democrats and 34% republicans

A spread of 14% in favor of democrats ???
Given Bush won this state by +12 in 2004 that doesn't sound factual to me. Maybe since 2006 the trend is reversed or maybe I miss something, it's quite possible ... so could someone justify how it's possible?

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Viperlord:

Obama has seemed to be doing better and better in NC, so I wouldn't discount the possibility he'll win there, but I don't expect it and it isn't necessary.

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Timdicator:

North Carolina voter registration breakdown:

Democratic: 2,724,021
Republican: 1,955,551
Libertarian: 1,432
Unaffiliated: 1,325,727
Total: 6,006,731

Polls don't have to be 50-50% to be legit.

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mirrorball:

@IndependentThinker:

Here are the links I posted in reply to your post in the FL thread:

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?ID=33

Last year's voter reg data:
Dem 45%
GOP 34%
Unaffiliated 21%

and more recent data by county (with state totals at the top), but without percentages.

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_results.asp?EC=09-27-2008

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lilyogini:

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_results.asp?EC=09-27-2008

Current voter registration of NC:

45% democrat
33% republican


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Viperlord:

THE POLL WAS DONE BY EVIL LIBERALS AND CAN'T BE TRUSTED! There, I did it for you boom.

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PortlandRocks:

Here is Pelosi's speech that "upset" the thugs today. Problem for the thugs, Americans will agree with her statement.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey3ZlsmIkz4

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mirrorball:

Also, the Senate numbers are flipped.

The new poll it's Hagen 46 Dole 38
previous poll Hagen 46 Dole 41

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blueboy2000:

Something more telling--Palin's net favorability rating here is -3 according to this poll. In a Bible Belt state no less.

If this trend holds, McCain is completely screwed.

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dopper0189:

This is great news for Obama in several ways. McCain now has a tough choice in Michigan, He is falling behind there does he continue to press the attack of does he defend NC? Is it worth the risk? When states like IN and NC are in play, it help make light blue states like Wisc., Mich., and maybe even Penn. safer.

This is the true beauty of the 50 states strategy, when you are on your opponents side of the 50 yard line, only a hail Mary can score a touch down. Fighting in "Red" America means less battles in "Blue" America.

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JCK:

Waiting for 6pm. Rasmussen is releasing results from Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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Jacob S:

Historically, southern states have had more democrats than republicans, yet consistently vote for republicans. The reason for this pattern is that a lot of "democrats" in these states are quite conservative.

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tjampel:

Looks like Dems were favored slightly here. However this appears to be somewhat offset by 51/49 M/F breakdown. Basically things are tied in NC. PPP may be the most accurate polling firm for NC. It's the only one that got the Dem primary nearly correct. The other pollsters were generally far off, all in single digits.

It's going to come down to GOTV and enthusiasm. I think Obama has the advantage in GOTV here in that his Urban-Suburban base is concentrated in a much smaller area than McCain's rural one. It's much easier to have personal contact when everyone's within walking distance. Phone contact is less effective than multiple personal contacts.

I think his being an historic candidate will bring out AA voters in historic numbers as well. And they are a big part of this electorate. Winning 36% of the white vote in a state like NC is pretty impressive, as well. PPP says that 35% is a threshold to victory.

We'll see

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Basil:

@ IT

This may not explain anything about this poll, but in the south there are (or at least were) a lot of self-identified Democrats who are basically left-over Dixiecrats and very conservative. It goes back to R's being the party of Lincoln (remember the Civil War? --or the "War Between the States" as holdouts for a confederate victory insist).
Most D's in the south switched over to R between JFK and Reagan somewhere, but I have relatives in NC and it's a weird, weird place.

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rami:

Well, even if obama doesn't eventually win there, that's good news for him. Now that pennsylvannia seems out of reach for Mccain, ll battleground states but NH are within 2004 red territory.

New Mexico and Iowa have turned blue, so now Mccain can't afford any extra loss. He has to split his ressources to defend ALL those states : IN, OH, CO, NV, VA, NC, FL. Should just of those seven go blue and Mccain's dead.

On the contrary, Obama doen't have to fight in all those states. He can focus on just 2 or 3 of them.

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Batony:

NC is the Nascar capital of the world. White conservative Dems never vote for the National Ticket. If Obama is within 6 on election day, I would call it a miracle. However, I give NC 2 more cycles before I consider it a toss-up.

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slinky:

@PortlandRocks,

Pelosi told the truth, but it may not have been the best moment to tell it in these stark terms. She often shows that kind of bad judgement. I once lived in her district. I was not impressed, but she had little power, then. Oh, well, I wish I had bought gold when I could afford it...

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Hoosier:

Jacob:

You beat me to the punch. In many Southern states, Democrats DO have a lead in registered voters and these voters do vote D for local and state offices. Once you get to the national offices (Congress as well as Prez), these "Democrats" vote Republican.

I am in total shock that Obama has any lead in NC. This is NOT good news for Gramps. I agree with the above that it may be time to write off either MI or PA and play defense in NC, IN, and FL.

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AmericaFirst:

Talk about taking the fight to the terrorists!

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Justin:

Can anyone tell me if these times are accurate for 2008?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/11/07/poll_closing_times_est.html

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1magine:

Guys _ you know I am the biggest Obama booster in the NE, but - seriously don't give this one to much credence. The cross tabs are not reputable for this state. It's a loosing game. CO, VA, NH - lock em down and its done.

Trust me there are not nearly enough votes/ voters in the extremely sparsely populated areas outside the 'T' in PA to make up for the 4%+ advantage in the heavily populated 'T'

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DecaturMark:

@Hoosier

Unfortunately for McCain, playing defense in red states without playing offense in blue state will automatically lose him the election. IMHO, he has already lost IA, NM and CO. He has to pick up a blue state somewhere to get to 270.

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Batony:

No McCain doesn't need to play defense in NC, IN and FL. He needs to wait until this crisis passes. He has too many weapons to use in those states to play defense. Plus still five weeks to go.

The key to the McCain campaign is how Palin performs on Thursday.

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1magine:

Ok I just checked the SOS web site for voter reg. I apologize I should have looked there prior to posting. Not an excuse - it just seemed so unbelievable.

I retract my earlier misinformed post.

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PortlandRocks:

Wow I can't wait 'till 6PM EST... a STRING of VERY important polls from Rasmussen are coming in PA, VA, CO, etc.

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nick-socal:

@Batony, "The key to the McCain campaign is how Palin performs on Thursday."

LOL! Ok.

So it's not his position on the issues, how he can handle the economy, etc? The key is simply Palin's debate performance? LOL.

Oh and by the way, the 'crisis' isn't going to pass. There is $7 trillion out there in non-collateralized debt.

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Batony:

McCain has not lost Co...NM and IA I agree, but Co no way. Of course he has to keep going at it in MI and PA.

Here is what one colummnist at the New York Daily news thinks:

"She will leave the stage Thursday night, having hurt McCain as much as she helped him at the beginning. Then the stage will belong to McCain and Obama, and they will talk about the economy and how they plan to fix it, and McCain will continue to talk about his experience and being a war hero, and Obama will try to show he is smart enough to have a real foreign policy and tough enough to enforce it.

And then the campaign will finally become what it has really been about all along: race. It will be about how many people are going to vote for the black guy on Nov. 4. Palin can't save McCain and neither can publicity stunts. Maybe race can still drag him across the finish line."

Unfortunately, that's why McCain will never be out of this race. No matter what polls tell us.

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slinky:

@Batony

sounds correct.

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IndependentThinker:

Thanks for your responses
So NC has a bunch of democrats who have been voting Republicans in presidential elections for decades because of history ...
They deserve what they got

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

I'm not sure I agree with you. History has shown that VP debates have very little affect on elections.

Granted, this will probably be the most viewed VP debate in history. Still, I'm not sure where mcCain can gain much. Even if Palin has a good debate where she demonstrates a firm grasp of the issues (somehow), that is what is EXPECTED of a VP.

However, if she screws it up big time, all of a sudden mcCains age and health become a major issue. Basically, I think that the POTENTIAL for damage is much greater than the potential for benefit to the mcCain campaign.

My prediction is that, when its all said and done, Obama will receive an extremely modest bounce from the VP debate. I could definitely be wrong although I don;t think I could ever be as wrong at even 1 prediction as boomshak is at everything he has an opinion on.

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Wolfsquire:

As a resident of NC, I am not really surprised by this poll (and the poll from last week which also gave Obama a +2 lead). You can't apply a deep-South analysis to a mid-South state like NC.

The Democratic Party is the dominant party at the state level in NC. While many Dems have voted Republican in national elections, the truth is that past Democratic Presidential campaigns have completely ignored NC. Obama is the first to campaign in NC and it has really paid dividends for him here.

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Batony:

Wolfsquire...great point about NC.

I think if Palin does well in the debate, the McCain would be smart to send her to NC. I know Rep have to feel they are being ignored and she would be a shot of adrenaline. If she does well in the debate.

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JCK:

Batony,

Call me naive, but I just don't think there are that many white Americans that will refuse to vote for Barack Obama based on race. Those who are are already voting for McCain, and are accounted for by polls. I don't believe in the Bradley effect, and find it hard to believe that people would lie to pollsters...

We'll see if I'm wrong, but Obama isn't performing worse among white voters in the South as compared to John Kerry (who, last I checked was white). He only received 27% of the white vote in NC in 2004. In this poll, Obama is getting 36%.

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voteforamerica:
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nick-socal:

@JCK and we've never tested a black candidate nationwide. The Bradley affect, if there was one, was at the state level. You mean to tell me there's enough blue or potentially blue states that would have a Bradley affect to make a difference and present McCain the presidency?

Possibly, but not probably. You'd figure the Red states are Red. So you'd have to have PA, MI, etc suddenly be impacted by the 'Bradley affect'. That would be odd.

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RaleighNC:

This poll seems reasonable. At least it's not giving black voters like 25% of the total vote which I have seen some polls do. If Obama can maintain that 36% average of White voters it may be enough to just get over the edge.

Also, Nancy Pelosi is a failure. She can't even get her own majority party to vote with her. She was caving to Bush, yet she blames the Republicans for standing up to him and her. She's either a bold-faced liar or extremely stupid. I vote for both.

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metsmets:

All those posts and no-one mentions African-Americans??

I've never been to NC but I checked my World Almanac and 21% of the population (2005) are AA. My guess is that almost all are registered as Democrats and, a wild guess, 95% of them will vote for Obama. I think Obama has a decent chance. If he can pick up slightly more than one third of the "White" vote. He can forget making inroads in the white male vote but the women are another story. He's not polling this well because of a fluke...

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Timmeh:

This is the second poll this week to show Obama ahead in NC. McCain and his campaign have to be panicking right now.

Also, I haven't seen the neocon trolls (boomshak comes to mind) here in a while.

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riverrun:

It is impressive that Obama should be polling ahead, but also impressive is the surge for Hagan in the senate poll. Taken together with recent polling gains in Kentucky and S Carolina, as well as a close internal Dem poll in Georgia, we should expect more surprises down the ballot as well.

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Batony:

@riverrun

Maybe a little too optimistic.

Here's the deal with my homestate NC, and I posted this on another blog...so ignore the Va part.

Va and NC are two very interesting states. In NC there are about 9 majority black public and private colleges , and the NC public universities still have 12% african-american requirement. That's one reason I laughed when people thought Hillary had a chance in NC. In Va there are only 4 majority black colleges.
The two population centers in NC couldn't be more different. Raleigh-Durham with the Research Triangle Park is a Democratic haven, while Charlotte is Nascar capital of the world. That is what is going to hurt Obama in NC. Outside of every urban center in NC, and there really are only 4 at the most, with two being considered major, it's Nascar country. What will happen is the "bubba" vote in the west will come out in droves.


In Va, the southwestern corner of the state and the Norfolk area will be Obama's biggest challenges. Despite a heavy African-American pop. in the Hampton Roads area, it is still dominated by the military. That's where John McCain dominates. Obama will have to absolutely crush McCain in Northern Va...I personally don't see that happening.

This is what I really want people to think about. Are white men really ready to give "their" country to a black men? We saw what happen during the illegal immigrant debate, my fear is the same thing will happen on Nov. 4th. And yes people do lie to pollsters.

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Viperlord:

I wouldn't bet on the military being overwhelmingly for McCain, many veterans and troops overseas have been shown to prefer Obama. (Obama's gotten 6 times the donations from troops in Iraq that McCain has)

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Tyler:

Rasmussen's swing state polls just posted:

PA O 50 M 42 (O+8)
VA O 50 M 47 (O+3)
FL O 47 M 47 (even)
CO O 49 M 48 (O+1)
OH O 47 M 48 (M+1)

Yeah so about Pennsylvania being yellow...

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RussTC3:

I hate weekend only polls, but whatever. Here are the latest polls from Rasmussen:

Colorado
Obama +1

Florida
Tie

Pennsylvania
Obama +8

Ohio
Obama +1

Virginia
Obama +3

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IndependentThinker:

JUST RELEASED
FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling - September 28, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008


Polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia shows that Barack Obama has gained a net 3 to 5 percentage points in each state compared to the previous Fox News/ Rasmussen Reports poll.

In Pennsylvania, Obama now leads by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%.

In Virginia, it’s Obama 50% and McCain 47%.

The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado (Obama 49%, McCain 48%), Florida (Obama 47%, McCain 47%), and Ohio (McCain 48% Obama 47%).

National polls and other state polling conducted by Rasmussen Reports indicate that Obama gained ground before last Friday night’s debate, probably as a result of the economic turmoil that has dominated the news. Since the debate, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows little change in the national numbers.

Regardless of the timing and the cause, however, the overriding trend from the past week is a shift in the battleground states that favors Obama.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· In all states, Obama gained ground among unaffiliated voters. While the sample sizes in each state are small

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decided:

Russ,

Ohio is +1 McCain

I think Ohio will go to McCain. Obama needs one out of Colorado, Florida and Virginia.

Pennsylvania seems safe for Obama

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kerrchdavis:

Rasmussen Poll Results

PA O(50) M(42) O+4
VA O(50) M(47) O-2
CO O(48) M(47) O-2
FL O(48) M(48) O+5
OH O(47) M(48)

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RussTC3:

^^^The Ohio page shows Obama 49, McCain 48, but it looks like that's actually the Colorado result.

The summary page shows McCain ahead 48/47.

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Tom:

Looks like PA is out of play (perhaps turning blue when the update posts here). Given that Rass seems to have a point or two R bias bodes very well for Obama.

McCain's new theme song must be "Slipping Through My Fingers" by ABBA.

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PortlandRocks:

Wow go Florida. CO is close than I'd like..but WOW. VA, FL, NC, OH, MO, CO..many ways to the presidency for President Obama.

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Batony:

I just wonder what McCain internals are showing. I think Co, Va, NC are stay with McCain. Once again if Palin does well Thur she will live in Pa, Mi, OH and Co. I guess that's why the whole campaign is preparing her for the debates. Fl is a tease for Obama.

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laguna_b:

Steady as she goes....Obama has the ship on course. Second thoughts as a BIG Obama supporter...O has to grow up in foreign policy. He is too trigger happy....like McCain. Since I think he takes input well I am hopefull that as Prez we won't end up in nuclear war over Georgia unless it's capital is Atlanta. We need to roll back Bush Cowboy diplomacy or someone (US) is going get seriously hurt.

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Trosen:

McCain CAN NOT afford to dick around in places like NC and MO, or really even FL at this point. He'll have to bite the bullet and just hope they hold red. He'll also have to abandon places like PA and MN soon. His best chance is to somehow try to hold all the 2000/2004 Bush states.. praying places like VA and CO that look pretty bad right now swing his way dramatically in the next few weeks. If McCain starts having to campaign heavy in FL, NC, MO, etc. he's dead in the water.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"I think Co, Va, NC are stay with McCain."

Maybe one will, but not all three.

I think it is becoming clear that McCain is losing this election. He needs to do something big to turn it around. Something big that won't make him look any more erratic.

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boomshak:

Here's the AMAZING thing:

5 Democrat Committee Chairmen voted AGAINST the Bailout Bill. Pelosi couldn't even get the Leadership of her party on board.

What weak leadership.

It is shame Obama will likley benefit so greatly from this as he has shown no leadership whatsoever.

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

I will ask you again (and this is a sincere question) What would you use to replace the bailout bill and how will it work?
Right now I see no way to unfreeze financial markets...

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zotz:

laguna_b-
Everything he says is with moderates and indys in mind. Hillary was the same in the primaries if you remember back. Obama is cautious and he, unlike McCain, does look at the big picture.

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Ryan in MO:

anyone know anything about the cameras catching McCain supposedly calling Obama a bastard after the debate??? I don't care for McCain, and I missed when he supposedly did it.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"anyone know anything about the cameras catching McCain supposedly calling Obama a bastard after the debate??? I don't care for McCain, and I missed when he supposedly did it."

If he did, you would think it would be all over YouTube by now.

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laguna_b:

@Ryan

Love to see that one! He knew who lost....

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MNLatteLiberal:

Hey, kids, did you see this? Just linked on the right hand side of your screen (from Politico):

"Of concern to McCain's campaign, however, is a remaining and still-undisclosed clip from Palin's interview with Couric last week that has the political world buzzing.

The Palin aide, after first noting how "infuriating" it was for CBS to purportedly leak word about the gaffe, revealed that it came in response to a question about Supreme Court decisions.

After noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major court cases.

There was no verbal fumbling with this particular question as there was with some others, the aide said, but rather silence."

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Dana Adini:

Obama is Dormie at 269. McCain needs to sweep NH, VA, Ohio, Florida, NC to tie. He is going to the river with 2 outs (John understands gambling analogies)

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Ryan in MO:

I didn't think so. Just saw some people making claims and was seeing if anyone else heard anything

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MNLatteLiberal:

Who knew that it gets even better? Who new (certainly not NBC last Saturday night) that there actually WAS Part IV, Attack of the Clowns, episode as well?

And who the heck knew there was this entire third branch of the government? Did you guys know that? Who is this Roe Wade chick? (Ok, OK, that one she actually knew).

Sorry if this was already posted - had no Internet all day.

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burrito:


Hmmm ... PA Obama by 8 ... I think it is time to make PA light blue ... and that means Obama 250 EVs (as of now) in the pollster map ...

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zotz:

There have been five polls in a row showing Obama in the lead in VA.

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Uri:

NC was a critical state for the dem primaries, it would have higher percentage of dem registration per dem voter than rep registration per rep voter.

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boomshak:

@laguna_b:
"boomshak

I will ask you again (and this is a sincere question) What would you use to replace the bailout bill and how will it work?
Right now I see no way to unfreeze financial markets..."

Personally I think it is fine like it is and would have voted for it.

It's like a cancer patient that has been in a terrible car accident. You don't give the patient chemo to treat their cancer when they are bleeding to death, you stop the bleeding and once they are stabilized, you treat the cancer.

The problem we have is that our politicians want to keep treat the cancer while the patient bleeds to death.

A pox on both their houses for this mess, IMHO.

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xaoex:

North Carolina is probably going to be more and more in play for Obama. Wachovia is based out of Charlotte and has 20,000 employees in the city, and many of them are going to get laid off after today's sale of the banking parts of the company to Citi. This will probably boost Obama's chances in the city and surrounding area given his huge lead in economic issues.

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zotz:

Sorry, I meant five polls in a row for CO.

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cinnamonape:

I think this election may create the obverse of the "Bradley Effect". I call it the "Huck Finn Effect" (after Huck began accepting that Jim was a real person [almost a voluntary white], while still holding his prejudice against other blacks).

Essentially it holds that white prejudice still exists but is most directly applicable to the group, not individuals within the group. Racism has transformed a lot in America since the 1950's. It still exists, but it's more subtle. When an individual from a minority becomes familiar and is personable and intelligent, the response is to consider that individual an "exception to the rule".

Actually Obama should have taken up McCain on a long series of "town hall" debates because it would have allowed him to use this effect. But the first debate probably allayed the fears of many who fall into this category. Mayor Bradley lost because he didn't camapign in the areas where the Huck Finn effect could have allowed him to win.

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boomshak:

@MNLatteLiberal:
"After noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major court cases.

There was no verbal fumbling with this particular question as there was with some others, the aide said, but rather silence."

Hey Latte. I've been doing a Google search for some video on when reporters asked Obama to list a bunch of Supreme Court Cases and he did so successfully.

Can you link me to that video please.

Thanks :)

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Gary Kilbride:

The Intrade price on North Carolina is moving toward 50/50. I'm definitely going to play more on McCain once I get a feel for where this will bottom.

No doubt economic conditions are playing a huge role in the unrest and the move toward Obama. Gas is scarce in many areas of North Carolina. My sister lives in Hendersonville and recently had to drive 25 miles into South Carolina for gas. Plus, today you had the Wachovia failure. They are based in Charlotte. There are reports of thousands of jobs to be lost.

Still, as someone commented above, there are 5 weeks to go. I expect this to settle and the foundational aspects to take hold. One interesting variable is gas prices. It was overlooked today with the bailout focus, but the trading price of gas plunged, more than $10 per barrel and 28 cents per gallon. I expect the national average to be very close to $3 on election day, if not below. The trading price is already down to $2.38. Normally the pump price is about 60 cents higher, but lately the gap has been significantly more than that, due to volatility like Ike.

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boomshak:

Oops, that's right, Obama NEVER has been asked ANY questions like that in 2 years has he?

Sorry, my bad.

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boomshak:

Obama gets asked questions like:

1. How great is it to be the first black candidate for president?
2. Why do you love your wife so much?
3. Is it embarrassing when everyone cheers for you so much?

...yep, nothing but hardball questions there.

How about this instead:

"Senator Obama, how is it possible you could sit in that man's church for 20 years and have NO IDEA he was such a radical and racist?"

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MNLatteLiberal:

@ Boomshack:
"A pox on both their houses for this mess, IMHO"

Boom, you know how I love you and all, but you know also, that the quote is a TYPICAL right winger response when he knows he has been cornered. Boehner FAILED to bring any more than a third of his fellow Republicans to the deal, whereas Pelosi got 2/3 of Dems when it was REPUBLICANS' OWN CABINET plan.

Shame on Boehner and his fellow boehnheads!
Next three days are going to be ****. Happy fn New Year!

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boomshak:

@MNLatteLiberal:

Palin should have answered, "I'd like to cite the same cases Obama discussed when you asked him this question."

Thyen when they said, "Um, we have never asked him this question."

She could just say, "Why not?"

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MNLatteLiberal:

@ Boomshack,
regarding those Supreme Court Cases vis-a-vis Obama: he is not the one with all that alleged EXECUTIVE EXPERIENCE, now is he? And this is not a referendum on Obama; he already passed that. This is referendum on Sarah Barracuda.

Please stick to the topic.
And laugh along with the bouncing ball

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boomshak:

@MNLatteLiberal:
@ Boomshack:
"A pox on both their houses for this mess, IMHO"

Boom, you know how I love you and all, but you know also, that the quote is a TYPICAL right winger response when he knows he has been cornered. Boehner FAILED to bring any more than a third of his fellow Republicans to the deal, whereas Pelosi got 2/3 of Dems when it was REPUBLICANS' OWN CABINET plan."

Democrats are socialists, of course they love the plan. 40% voted against. Sad.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@boomshack,
Dahlink, I am so sorry to be dominating these here electrons and all, but I have been internet-less all day, and you know, stuff builds up. Regardless, when we last chatted you ran off to proliferate, leaving my answer to your challenge to name one conservative who ran as conservative and lost. I mentioned "en passant" Mr. Macaca. You ran off to spread your seed. I trust you have now been sufficiently relieved and complimented and all and are able to return to a more intellectual activity.

I see your conservative and raise you Macaca Allen. You move, sir. (Mate in two)

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zotz:

Boomshak-
FYI- Obama taught constiutional law at the U. of Chicago.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Obama_vindicated_on_lawschool_title.html

Gawd yer dum!

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KipTin:

Looked at the Rasmussen polls. With sampling errors (4.5%) it looks just as close as it has been.

Colorado: Obama +1.
Ohio: McCain +1
Florida: Tied
Virginia: Obama +3

Pennsylvania is the only one showing movement for Obama. RCP changed its electoral map to lean Obama.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@ boomshack
boomshak:

"@MNLatteLiberal:
Palin should have answered, "I'd like to cite the same cases Obama discussed when you asked him this question."

Well, muffin, that's the whole point, ain't it?! There are PLENTY of things Palin should have and could have and would have answered. The point is HER ACTUAL ANSWERS.

See, pumpkin, in the would've could've world we would not have had 8 years of that dubya moron. Or 9/11. Or Cheney. Or...well, you get the point.
XOXOX

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MNLatteLiberal:

@ boomshack,
btw, repeated mentions of rev. Wright or Rez Co are not going to gain you any traction. Sorry. That's just the way it is. In this reality. In woulda coulda shoulda world perhaps it woulda.

The public opinion has spoken and the Appalachia is right behind you on this. Texas. Idaho. The rest of the country is looking rather blue. Cheers.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

hey, boom, do you notice me any better now?
~ curious in MN

____________________

chgo1:

To the genius that mentioned Obama's being able to cite Supreme Court Cases: He taught constitutional law at the Univ of Chicago, I am fairly confident that he could cite more cases than all of us on this forum.

Your continued pathetic defense of a woman so incredibly inept and unqualified provides much entertainment. Keep it up!!

____________________

Batony:

If Palin is coherent Thursday she benefits the McCain campaign. NC will be very tough for Obama. He needs to be polling 5 to 7 points ahead to have a realistic chance.

____________________

macsuk:

Weekend polling hurts Obama. Look at Ras last 3 polling days for all of these states. With exception of PA Obama did better with all these states during the week.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@KipTin:

KipTin SAID:
"Looked at the Rasmussen polls. With sampling errors (4.5%) it looks just as close as it has been.

Colorado: Obama +1.
Ohio: McCain +1
Florida: Tied
Virginia: Obama +3

Pennsylvania is the only one showing movement for Obama. RCP changed its electoral map to lean Obama. "

----------------
Reality:
1- Previous poll of FL from FOX News/Rasmussen
09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 51 46 McCain +5
Today it's tied
2- Previous poll of VA from FOX News/Rasmussen
09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 48 50 McCain +2
Today Obama is leading +3 in VA
4- FOX News/Rasmussen PA
09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 48 45 Obama +3
Now he's leading +8

Conclusion : YOU ARE DEAD WRONG
Get your facts straight before spewing partisan comments

____________________

KipTin:

I guess if Palin had been nominated for the Supreme Court or Attorney General, I would be worried if she could not answer questions about major court decisions. If I were to ask about such, I would SPECIFICALLY ask about her reaction to the Supreme Court siding with Exxon regarding paying damages for the Valdez oil spill.

BUT the rule of thumb in an interview is to not jump into unknown territory on the basis of a general question. Similar to the "Bush Doctrine" gotcha question. Don't guess.....Deflect. One should change the topic and talk on their message. Obama did that on his Face the Nation appearance last Sunday. And if one remembers, not too far back (counted in months) Obama got himself backed into a corner a few times. More recently, was the Saddleback Civic Forum.

I am still curious why Obamanation is still so obsessed with Palin. Jack Cafferty was going after her again today as the stock market was taking a nose dive. It really seemed surreal.

____________________

zotz:

IndependentThinker-
"Conclusion : YOU ARE DEAD WRONG"

Well done!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Guess you are not much of a Tin, eh, Kip?
Lemme 'splain something to ya before you run off again. The reason why AMERICA (not just the Obama camp) is so obsessed with Palin is because this lamest candidate for the second highest office in the nation is being shoved down our collective throat as qualified and experienced. And after 8 years of world through the deceitful lens of Cheney/Rove, we, AMERICANS, have had enough bull****. I hope that explains the obsession. Have a nice day.

____________________

laguna_b:

There go those sily liberal journalists thinking that the Vice President should be competent and trying to trap stupidity again! http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/29/eveningnews/main4487826.shtml

____________________

laguna_b:

@KipTin

Well, after Bush put up Harriet Miers whose whole qualifications were that she was Bush's lawyer and a wonderfull mother and very religious, you get used to the lowest bar on qualifications for the Supreme Court or for VP....so Sarah just seems in line with the lowering of the bar. Capice?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

laguna_b,
yeah, as I was reading it, I was struck by that tell tale "yeah" of Palin's in response to Couric: "Gov. Palin, since our last interview, you've gotten a lot of flak. Some Republicans have said you're not prepared; you're not ready for prime-time. People have questioned your readiness since that interview. And I'm curious …"

Palin actually interrupts Couric to interject that folksy wisdom America loves her for "yeah"

I don't know how they are prepping her in the Debate Camp, but if this is where it's at...

I too am a bit apprehensive, just a tad, about Palin's expectations being so low on Thursday. How could she actually disappoint when the bar is so low? Well, here is how I deal with that:
Sarah has become a caricature of herself. He inability to give a single interview without it blowing up in her face (nit pik, interviews with the right wingnut hosts don't count) has created a stereotype, an image that she will have to overcome during the debate. She is not starting at the ground level, she has already dug herself a horrible image problem. She will first have to dig herself out, overcome Tina Fey as Palin, overcome a cartoon of herself that all of us AMERICANS see in this boob. And that is a mighty deep hole.

My prediction for the debate?
We will have a wardrobe malfunction. To distract the white male viewer I believe we shall witness the first vice-presidential nipple. A Palininple, if you will.
What are the Vegas odds?

____________________

Clint Cooper:

Much more important to look at is PPP's poll of Wake County which reveals that Obama leads 55-38 there: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pppmain.asp?@spdT=B6B42829136845A69B19

This would explain why Obama is doing so well in NC. He has a massive, massive organization in Wake County (Raleigh). And Wake County is one of the most populous counties in North Carolina.

If Obama takes NC, he'll win it by running up big margins in Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, Charlotte, and Greensboro/Winston-Salem.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@MN

I don't know if I count but I definitely notice you better, lol! :D

@macsuk

I know! Why can't they do these damn polls in the middle of the week?? Maybe on a tue perhaps, just like the election!

____________________

IndependentThinker:

133 Republicans voted against the bailout bill while only 95 Democrats did
How come the McP"ali"nocchio campaign critics Democrats for not backing the bill ???
I just don't get it, could someone explain me please?
Those people are really crazy ... they can't have it both way

____________________

KipTin:

What is your problem... Independent Thinker. You stated "Conclusion : YOU ARE DEAD WRONG
Get your facts straight before spewing partisan comments."

Well, my facts are correct, and I made NO partisan comments regarding these polls.

Previous polls compared to today's polls:
•Florida (9/24/08) McCain 48/Obama 47. Now tied at 47/47.
•Virginia (9/25/08) McCain 45/Obama 50. Now Obama lost two points. (McCain 47/Obama 50)
•Colorado (9/23/08) McCain 47/Obama 50. Now Obama lost two points (McCain 48/Obama 49).
•Ohio (9/24/08) McCain 47/Obama 46. No change. (McCain 48/Obama 47).

•And what was so partisan in my saying Pennsylvania is showing movement for Obama? Is not that correct? (9/24/08). McCain 45/Obama 49. Now increase of 4 points for Obama (McCain 42/Obama 50).

I could have hyped up that there Obama lost two points in two states (Virginia and Colorado) and that would have been partisan. But I did not because of the large sampling error of +4.5%.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Inde

Thats what I've been trying to explain to boomshak all day to day. Needless to say, he doesn't get the logic.

The bill is a bipartisan, American one. It is not the responsibility of JUST the democrats OR the republicans to pull America out of this hole. On top of that, the average consensus view of Americans economic situation is that we are suffering from a frenzy of deregulation that has taken place under the current Republican administration.

To criticize the democrats because 40% bailed on the bill when almost 2/3rds of Republicans did is ridiculous. As I said earlier today, it would be like me saying "I shot a guy 18 times, sliced his head off, set him on fire and then ran him over with my car. However, my buddy is really the one to blame for all this because he punched him."

____________________

Paul:

As for the voter registration profile in NC, please see http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?id=41

As of 1/05/08, voter registration split was Rep 34.2%, Dem 44.8%. As of 9/27/08, voter registration was Rep 32.5%, Dem 45.3%.

Dem advantage in registrations has increased from 10.6% to 12.8%

Comparing this PPP-NC poll to the last one, Obama picked up points in the 45-64 age group and with independents.

____________________

KipTin:

So IndependentThinker and zotz... which time continuum are you two guys in? I myself am in the here and now.
-----------

____________________

KipTin:

I guess I do not understand the Democrats WHINING when they control the House and could have passed the bill.

And when did "bipartisan" come to mean 50/50? That must be some kind of election year/Pelosi calculation so the Dems could say... see the GOP voted for it too... we just went along with them and the President because we had to... because we have no principles (economic or otherwise) of our own.

Instead look at the big picture here. The nearly 50/50 split was the total vote. Just over half of the House of Representatives thought this bailout legislation was not good.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@kerrchdavis

LOL !! I just watching CNN showing a speech given by McCain today stating that it's unfortunate that in virtue of democrats partisanship the bill was failed while at the same time a commentator is pointing out that 133 R voted against it while only 95 D voted against
C'mon guys R are strongly convinced that Americans are damn stupid

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Look, I don't think anyone is saying the democrats are completely blame free here. There is PLENTY of blame to go around. And who knows, maybe this is all worth it and the next proposed bill has even better results.

My annoyance is to the accusation that somehow, because 40% of the democrats rejected the bill, its mainly THEIR fault. This is NOT a democratic bill! This is not some anti-abortion law that we are trying to have passed that clearly favors the values of one party's ideology over another.

Both parties have JUST AS MUCH responsibility in finding a solution. Today's solution did not pass. And you CANNOT make the case that the party that had 40% opposed is somehow more to blame than the party that had 65% opposed regardless of whether they could have passed it themselves or not.

That argument simply does not work.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@kerrch,
of course it counts! we shared a group hug the other night, and that is more than I can say for a certain boomshack for whom I was about to write a poem. I already had a rhyme too: poll/troll. But I still cannot decide on boomshack/spoon crack vs noon snack.

KiP, do you see a problem when 2/3 of the Republicans refuse to follow their House leadership AND their executive? This is why they have House Whips. But yours must be a pussy.

But, vernaculars aside, what the **** was Boehner doing blaming Pelosi for the failure to pass? This is not a referendum on her leadership or popularity. This is not about Republicans doing something out of spite. This is not kindergarten or the third grade. These bozos are supposed to be looking out FOR US, for ALL of US, not settling petty scores with Pelosi because they didn't like the tone of her speech.

Now we are faced with a week of real **** economic news. Tomorrow is payday in corporate americana, and I wonder how many corporations will be unable to pay their employees for the month of September with the money flow freezing up? I wonder how we will fare until next Thursday because of what the Republican House leader himself characterized as a Republican whim.

Answer that one, Mr. Pik

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@inde

that response was mainly for you, lol! :)

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

yeah, McCain is looking real presidential right now. blame game. phoning it in. talk about soundbites.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

For the duration of today, we can call them house whiMps.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

and "Boehner" kind of speaks for itself.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@MN

the way the stock market is going, we may be in for a few more group hugs :)

____________________

boomshak:

Guys,

They'll get another bill together and pass it right after the holiday. All the stock market losses today will be made back plus more.

Pelosi was an idiot for her abusive speech and not rallying her majority and the Republicans were idiots to vote against this when they know economic troubles benefit Obama.

Plenty of stupidity to go around.

Anyway, doesn't matter. They'll pass a bill by the end of the week.

____________________

metsmets:

So you ask Paulson - straight from the troughs of Wall Street - ex CEO Goldman Sachs - to come up with a plan to save Wall Street from itself. Like most arrogant CEO-types - he wanted a blank check with no strings attached. What else do you expect from someone with his background? Humility? Political awareness?
It was this blunder in the original proposal that doomed this bailout. He treated Congress like a rubber-stamp Board of Directors.
Don't blame Pelosi. Don't blame the GOP. Blame Bush and his "medicore-beyond-belief" administration.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Hey boomie-
Internet is still not working. Can you check Intrade for me?

____________________

boomshak:

You know, I must say, the Democratic Majority must be the most INEFFECTIVE in history.

Just ask kerrchdavis. NOTHING is ever their fault.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@KipTin

So basically your analysis is based on two different polls taken by two different pollsters during two different periods, using two different methods then you compare them and draw a conclusion
Wow! this is so impressive !!!
We definitely don't have the same way to interpret polls

Let me play your game:
Below are two different polls taken by two different pollsters during the same period but surely there are some hours difference between the times they were taken so based on your method Obama significantly lost or gained points the same day in a matter of hours ???

Besides, what about the GW Battleground poll showing +2 for McCain while all other polls showing an average of +6 for Obama during the same period ???

Strategic Vision (R) PA 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 47 46 Obama +1
CNN/Time PA 09/21 - 09/23 730 LV 53 44 Obama +9

Conclusion: The safest way to see movement in polls is by considering the same organization during different periods
Yet it's still your rights to have a different point of view ...

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Let's see what the Democratic Majority can accomplish next term when they really are the majority by large numbers.

____________________

boomshak:

@BOOMFAIL:

Intrade reflects the fact that everyone assumes the cluster f*ck today benefits Obama. That's why those 12 Republicans who voted against are such f*cktards.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@kerrchdavis:
"@inde

that response was mainly for you, lol! :)"

I know :-))

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

This is my post about 6 comments above yours:

"Look, I don't think anyone is saying the democrats are completely blame free here"

then, you say:

"You know, I must say, the Democratic Majority must be the most INEFFECTIVE in history.

Just ask kerrchdavis. NOTHING is ever their fault. "

I guess now you can add "brain-dead" to your resume that inclues "liar, illogical, pathetic and blind."

____________________

boomshak:

For better or worse, this is a "representative government". The vote today reflected the will of the people.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

"For better or worse, this is a "representative government". The vote today reflected the will of the people."

Agreed. So you admit, then, that Pelosi's speech should not have convinced ANYONE to change their vote?

____________________

IndependentThinker:

JUST RELEASED
Courts Allow Same-Day Vote Window to Go Forward in Ohio

By Mary Pat Flaherty
A weeklong window in which Ohio residents can to register to vote and cast their ballot in person on the same day can get underway Tuesday after courts today rejected challenges to the process.

The one-stop voting, which will end Oct. 6, had become a heated partisan issue in the battleground state, with Republicans disputing a legal interpretation by Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.

Get out the vote efforts have been mobilized to take advantage of the window, in which the new voters use absentee ballots, and lock down votes from individuals who otherwise might not register or send in the absentee forms.

The absentee ballots won't be counted until Election Day, but campaigns treasure them as votes in the bank. Voting centers located at boards of elections offices and their satellite offices will handle the one-stop voting.

Numerous drives to register college students, minorities, residents of homeless shelters and other groups during the weeklong window have been announced, prompting Ohio Republicans to argue Brunner had issued orders that would benefit her party's candidate, a contention she strongly denied.

Three courts cleared the way for same-day voting to proceed. A 4-3 ruling by the Ohio Supreme Court in Brunner's favor, and decisions by two federal judges in Cleveland and Columbus.

If you are still reading that means you're interested in knowing the rest of the article, to do so click
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/29/courts_allow_same-day_vote_win.html

My conclusion is: If Obama can effectively register new voters and make sure those new voters vote till Oct 6 McCain is in trouble

____________________

macsuk:

Here is something I read that will help all you Republicans feel more relaxed about Palin debating on Thursday.

http://jeffreygoldberg.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/sarah_palins_terrifying_ignora.php

____________________

tjampel:

I'm very happy with the Battleground polling today. I've been internally doubting that such a quick shift in the preferences of the electorate could persist for more than a week. When you derive benefit from so many unforced errors from the other side and from outside circumstances, and you start thinking it's all the result of your own brilliance, you fall into a very dangerous trap

I'm sure that the Obama campaign is fully expecting a portion of the most recent bump to subside. I see that the pulling away has slowed to a halt but see no crash. That may be the result of an invisible debate bump canceling out a slow fade in anti-McCain sentiment based on his own behavior combined with the events of the past 2 weeks. I take comfort from the following facts:


1. The race appears to be stabilizing nationally now, with Obama up by about 5-6 points.

2. In key states where McCain was leading by 2-5 points we're now seeing draws---that is both candidates are either polling dead even or a point or two on either side of even in a consistent manner).
a. FL...Candidates are even today in Ras and McCain up avg of .75 in the 4 polls conducted in the past week, with one poll showing Obama up (though it's ARG)

b. OH-McCain is less than 1 point up, based on the last 6 polls. Not much movement lately but you are no longer seeing 4-6 point McCain leads that were prevalent only, except for Ras' 4 point lead on the 21st. This was wiped up by the next two Ras polls showing a 1 point lead.

With the Ohio Supreme Court upholding the unusual provision allowing voters to Register and vote at the same time (5 of 6 justices were Repubs, btw), a Dem Gov, and far more ground offices and staff/volunteers expect a narrow Obama win announced at about 1:45 am when the last returns come in from Cuyahoga County.

I doubt this will decide the contest this year since both CO and VA (and even NV)look like better bets, but...you never know if Biden and Clinton might energize economically depressed Ohioans while VA , CO, NV start to move back towards an experienced hand at the helm.

c. NV appears to be dead even right now. Obama is actually ahead in the avg of the only 2 polls conducted over the past 2 weeks. All summer and fall we keep looking at the demographics of NV and wondering why Obama isn't up at this point. (maybe lots of younger voters there with cell phones...or unionized casino workers work nights and sleep in the daytime...who knows).

There have been no recent polls (none in the past week). Perhaps the next few will confirm that this race is now even, or that Obama is finally forging ahead. This is one state where I'd NOT want to wager anything come Election day; too hard to figure out.

3. VA Obama is up an average of 3 points in the last 7 polls, including +3 today in Ras. If it's really +3 and this holds up to Election day his superior ground game in VA should put McCain away. Expect massive Ad buying and visits from team McCain the rest of the way, as their ground game is no match here

4. The Pac NW states are moving back to within expected norms. Hard to see them closing up again, unless Palin hits it out of the park Thursday. I hope that Gwen Ifil has them "very very" (as Sarah is fond of saying) tightly locked up somewhere in a salt mine in Nevada.

5. PA has show strong movement back towards its expected spread as well....the tracking poll and Ras are both in accord. I see this race as fairly safe now; it was getting too close for comfort.

5. CO has stabilized a bit lower than previous levels. I call it a solid +2 for Obama. I'd make it a bit lower, save for the fact that the one poll showing McCain up lately is ARG, one of the worst polling firms.

I'm expecting Obama to have the better ground game there by far. fivethirtyeight.com has excellent on the ground coverage of the GOTV and voter outreach there; Basically McCain's offices are heavily concentrated in the Front Range area, especially CO Springs; Obama has a strong presence there too, in expected strongholds of Boulder and Denver, and in southern Hispanic areas and ALSO the Western Slope, where there's little McCain presence.

6. MI and WI are also trending back to Obama, big time. He's up 4.8 in the last 5 polls in WI and up nearly 7 points in the last 7 polls conducted in MI. No rcent polling out of MN but Obama is up 3.25 in the last 4 polls, all pre-meltdown. This is an improvement over previous polling. Still this state should be one where team Obama is ready to put money and candidate, if necessary To do so now would be to look week. We know it's always a game of chicken. Great to see that it's John McCain who's blinked....in IN and NC

7. NH is stable at least; not trending downwards. NH could be very important on Obama's map. I'm sure it's heavily invested at the moment and will remain so through Election Day

8. In states considered out of range for Obama there has been a clear improvement, to the point where McCain's been put on the defensive in blood-red IN and may even be forced to spend money in MO. In IN the polling average for the last group of polls (all conducted more than a week and a half ago) puts McCain up just 2.1. In MO the only polls conducted after the onset of the meltdown (and the McCain "suspension")show a 1.5 point race.

9. At this time (and expect things to change, of course) Obama has many paths to victory and McCain few.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

boomshack,
where do you run off to in order to avoid answering questions? is there some republican spin machine site whose teat you suckle at to get rejuvenated? because that north dakota republican think tank you sent me to is more tank than think. yeah, the one with a bathing beauty palin.

in any case, why are you so flippant about the economy? i wonder if you really ARE over 20 to so quickly dismiss today's fiasco with self-assuring "yeah, they'll pass it by the end of the week".

and while you are scrolling back, do some quick control F for "boom" in reverse to locate multiple unanswered questions with your name tag. Muchos gracias. (that's a little spanish lingo for ya, as Rush used to say)

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@macsuk
yeah, but it's from that leftist rag Atlantic Monthly!

Actually, jokes aside, thanks for a link to a great article. I've seen Parts 1 and 2 of that interview in full, and they are all over the youtube, but for some reason Part 3 is a lot tougher to find. I wanted to do a split screen of Tina vs Sarah that Oberman just did, but the only one I found was incomplete.

No need for links, I will wait for Thursday. I hope for the sake of my teenager, there is a seven second delay.

____________________

zotz:

MNLatteLiberal-

"is there some republican spin machine site whose teat you suckle at to get rejuvenated?"

http://www.redstate.com/

____________________

metsmets:

STATE BUSH MCCAIN DIFF
ALABAMA 62.9 61.4 -1.5
ALASKA 63.2 60.9 -2.3
IDAHO 69.3 55.2 -14.1
INDIANA 60.4 51.6 -8.8
KANSAS 62.9 60.4 -2.5
KENTUCKY 60.0 58.5 -1.5
MONTANA 60.5 55.2 -5.3
NEBRASKA 66.8 64.1 -2.7
N.DAKOTA 63.9 55.9 -8.0
OKLAHOMA 65.6 65.3 -0.3
S.DAKOTA 60.9 58.2 -2.7
TEXAS 61.5 59.6 -1.9
UTAH 73.3 68.1 -5.2
WYOMING 70.3 64.9 -5.4

I compared the states where Bush got 60% + of the vote with current poll standings for McCain. This is the solid red on your map. In every state McCain is getting a lower percentage of the vote. Indiana stands out - clearly it's proximity to Illinois (i.e. Obama state) has some effect on the Democratic vote. My other summation is that McCain has less share of the vote where Obama ran well in the primaries/caucuses. Clearly having an organisation on the ground makes a difference. However, the conclusion is what I always suspected. Given the terrible state of the economy, the RED states are incredibly loyal to the Republican ticket!

____________________

tjampel:

If Pelosi's speech convinced even one member of Congress to change their vote on such an important piece of legislation, whether you like the bill or not, and at such a critical time in our history they should be placed in one of those old-fashioned stocks with a sign over their head saying

"I'm a very sensitive guy/gal and, you see, Nancy Pelosi was just soo mean to me and my party, that I couldn't take it...so I changed my vote on the most critical piece of financial legislation introduced during the last 60 years. I'm sure you understand even if your 401k just lost 8% today"

You might see a shortage of rotten fruit in the DC area.

I really love to find that Republican Congress-critter out there who will say this publicly. Any takers? Ohh...wait a minute didn't Boehner just say that about his own colleagues....uhhm....yeah, that ought to play really well with the American people.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Karl Rove electoral map Obama 259 McCain 169 he has Minn as a toss up if thats blue Obama is Dormie at 269.

Boomshak, how exactly are you going to win?

____________________

marctx:

McCain is in deep trouble. Even on Fox, the democratic position is looking more plausible. No matter how much republicans argue, democrats win. I disagree with Karl Rove and Bill O'Reily who suggest McCain should try to turn this economics issue around. McCain is loosing on this issue bigtime no matter what he says or does. My suggestion is he beg some republicans to pass this plan and hope we can talk about something else. Most democrats will come home if worrying about Obama's readiness is forgotten and worrying about the economy is front and center for the next five weeks.

____________________

Dana Adini:

@tjampel

but she start it!!! she called me a bad name :(

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

metsmets,
I've said it before and I'll say it again, there is a large, scarily large segment of American population that will vote for a sack of manure if you paint an elephant on it. I estimate that number to be at about 25-30%, right where dubya is hovering right now. Those folks will vote for Republicans even if Jesus came to them and told them not to.

A similar Dem number of course exists also, but imho, is significantly lower.

____________________

slinky:

I tend to agree with Paul Krugman's times blog, wherein he now describes the US as a banana republic with nuclear capability.

The question is now not so much, Is Obama winning, but what is he winning? The country is so divided and bankrupt that it's not clear that recovery is possible in 8 years, or even a decade. We have been down so long that sideways looks up from here.

I was just asking my kids whether they own any clothes made in America. Each had one garment with a credible American pedigree. My wife had forgotten that we used to make toys in this country (I lived near Ideal Toy Corp. growing up), and we drove tonight in a Japanese car. I said that I owned virtually nothing of foreign manufacture growing up, which was not exactly true (Rudge english bicycle, Japanese transistor radio, Yashica 35mm camera) but almost.

The question is whether we can rebuild manufacturing in America. Whether we can both invent and make things again. If we can't we're sunk. And, frankly, Wall Street sunk us because they didn't care about strategic needs or goods, only fast profit.

Look where that got us.

So, we're not in good shape, and whoever wins this election, well, it's likely to be something of a pyrrhic victory because the wind has been taken out of the American sails.
Mickey Cantor was not a good thing for America (IMHO). Of course, GWB was an imbecile. I'm not questioning that.

____________________

metsmets:

Anyone want to bet that Bush is going on TV tomorrow morning to annouce that the stockmarket and banks will be closed for the rest of the week? He and Paulson huffed and puffed that if they didn't pass a bailout bill that the consequences would be dire. Now that the Republicans couldn't mount enough enthusiasm in the Congress to support their own President, I think he is capable of adding this note of crisis in order to demonstrate his original point was valid. My motto? - "Expect the unexpected!"

"Cash is the new King!"

____________________

tjampel:

cognitive dissonance is a bitch until you finally take the BLUE pill and see that you've been carried along by a steady stream of lies which created the memes in your own mind, which fed into your own personal desires, fears,and mythology about how this nation can become great again, which led to your pulling the lever for ____ and ____the last two cycles (you fill in the blank)

For me, as a Dem, more important than Obama winning (he was my 3rd choice) is seeing those sleeping within the "Matrix" wake up in time to save this (formerly) great country. I am sure that Repubs feel the same way about things, but thik that WE drank the koolaid and need to wake up from our dream of pretty rainbows in the sky.

the truth of which party can lead America back to greatness and bring back the respect we used to have in the world (which we really need now that much of our country's debt is owned by these same people)can't be known until historians examine the facts years from now, but I think we at least recognize how high the stakes are and the dire consequences if we fail to choose the right leaders for our country.

I admit I have a progressive agenda (and call me a Liberal if you want). I want to see income redistribution in a time where many working people need help and got that way because of shifts in a global economy. I want us to be able to compete in that economy and not become the worlds biggest debtor (Oh...too late about that). I want us to start to lead the world in clean and renewable solutions (instead of getting left in the dust by Euro-tech solutions) to the energy crisis--- not in new ways to extract the last few drops of fossil fuels or soon-to-be obsolete nuclear (in 20- 25yrs). I want to keep homes on the coastlines of the world....on the coastlines, not accessible to scuba enthusiasts only. I want to create conditions in the financial markets which punish self-serving greed, at the expense of properly serving their own customers.

So I'm a Dem and you're whatever you are. May the best person to lead this country win (and if it's McCain may he live a long life!)

____________________

Bigmike:

Whoo-hoo, Thanks to Citi for taking Wachovia's bad paper! My 401K sleeps much better tonight!

Rhetorical question:

24 years from now, will Palin be as insignificant as Ferraro is today?

____________________

Basil:

R's have to help pass whatever makes it through congress because if they don't, and things go badly, the R's can say "we told you so". Obviously, whatever passes is not guaranteed to fix everything, and given that the crisis is one of the utter failure of deregulation (a largely R cause), the D's are well advised not to volunteer to be left holding the stinking bag of crap for it.

Hence, even though the D's could have passed the bailout themselves, the clear need for bipartisanship dictated that a majority of R's had to get on board so the blame could be spread around. D's held up their half of the deal. R's didn't.

The Pelosi thing is total BS. I'm no fan of hers (she's a poor speaker) but if anybody balked because of her speech, they're an idiot, as Barney Frank suggests.

____________________

Bigmike:

Basil

"a majority of R's had to get on board so the blame could be spread around"

Apparently not a true statement. A majority of R's did not have to do anything.

I do agree with you on the Pelosi crap. It is just an excuse. Come on R's, stand up and tell us the real reason you voted no. It has to be better than that!

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Asian markets are following McCain's leadership as well.

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

____________________

tjampel:

Manufacturing of what? Where can we compete?

Alt/renewable energies; mainly solar and wind....makes sense to me, as there are lots of huge steel plants sitting vacant in places like Bethlehem PA. Wind requires a lot of poured and formed metal parts....

Also geothermal is becoming more affordable and requires lots of pipes...

Electric and hybrid cars...if there's someone to push them on us and someone to cheerlead for them in the Oval office. McCain and Obama might actually have similar opinions on this but Obama will be more agressive in pushing Detroit and he might be willing to try to sell the country on helping Detroit to retool so they can start cranking them out

Efficient electric transmission wires to move electricity around.

Organic or at least harmful chemical-free cleaning (and other non-food) products and high-quality recyclables, I am working with clients who are really trying to push these kinds of technologies and we may actually see a market in Asia...especially China with 250 Million middle class people sick of getting tainted adulterated crappy products. Our products are more expensive but apparently that's no longer a bar in much of Asia where perceived quality is higher. Perhaps we can become a net exporter of "premium" environmentally friendly products one day. It takes some efforts and vision for a president to make a difference in this kind of area

____________________

slinky:

Pelosi did not cause the failure to pass, but she did not help pass it, either.

She wanted Dems not to suffer disproportionately from the passage of a perceived 'bad bill'. She knows that some HR members will not be re-elected on account of this vote.

So, she asked Boehners to spread the blame.

She also stuck it to the Repubs. in her intro to voting.

They decided to stick it back at her for spite.

That's how the House runs; sortof advanced Junior High School.

So, it's a huge mess, created by Congressmen with the mentality of 8th graders (on both sides of the aisle).


____________________

slinky:

The repubs. have been completely wrong about economic policies for 20+ years. But, you can't stick their faces in it. They will just spit at you, which is not a productive interaction.

____________________

slinky:

If we don't manufacture anything we're screwed. The Europeans invented linux for a reason: They don't want our software. They want to invent software.

Again, if we don't start making stuff we're screwed.

____________________

slinky:

bubba was a compromise. We got Mickey Kantor along with Bubba. Obama isn't. I think we need to focus on that. Obama isn't a compromise. He's the real thing.

The question is, can he be empowered (by dolts like Pelosi) to do the things he needs to do.

Again, I used to live in Pelosi's district, while Hillary was trying to pass healthcare. I assure you, Pelosi is a dolt.

She couldn't figure out what Hillary was trying to do well enough to support it.

Believe me, Pelosi doesn't know much about anything.

____________________

Guy Fawkes:

I smile when Doomshak and his followers say: "With the economy in its present mess, it's incredible that Obama isn't up by 20! The fact that it's so close means that soon we will revert to a statistical tie" (which in a center-right country with Diebold voting machines means McCain +1 and 273 EVs).

I could take this if it were coming from the Far Left. But not from people who advocate the very system that is now imploding.

It certainly is pathetic that the Dems lost in 2000 and 2004, and are not yet assured of winning even now (although Nate's 538 projection machine now has the Obama win percdentage at over 80%.) It is sad that it takes another Great Depression to make people realize that Bush/Cheney-brand capitalism is just unsustainable.

Even now, few people are talking about why the mortgage mess happened. It happened because people don't make enough money to buy a house, unless it's a subprime con job. The middle class was created by the New Deal and the Great Society, and it has vanished with them.

We are living through a profound, shocking disillusionment now. Even hard-core Obama supporters (like me) cannot really believe the enormity of this collapse. The question is how quickly we move to reinvent America come January.

There will always be a place for you old-school right-wingers, Doomshak. But don't expect to be running things for while.

____________________

Bigmike:

I honestly believe there is a R conspiracy.
I have believed that since the days of RR. Run up huge deficts and when some D schmuck gets elected there wont be enough cash for any more "Great Society" type programs. Leave 'em in handcuffs.

And it worked. BC promised a middle class tax cut. Instead the middle class got a tax increase because of the deficit "crisis."

____________________

Bigmike:

Guy Fawkes

The question is how quickly we move to reinvent America come January.

You don't get to reinvent America. America is not about just you any more than it is about just me.

You can tweak a things here and there. But there are a some "problems" you may have trouble over-coming.

The constitution.

The Supreme Court.

Less than 60 D Senators.

____________________

zotz:

The Reps will never admit that Reaganomics is a failure. That is a central part of their philosophy. It is their raison d'etre. They have to be defeated. Their entire party has to be defeated. They are moving farther to the right. This election is the tipping point. After this election (if they lose) they will never recover. That is the reason for their desperation

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

To get back to the polls for a sec - when is somebody going to do a reasonable (hey, boomshack) poll, a one actually using a realistic MN Dem/Rep population ratio & update MN? I am tired of MN being yellow on the map. Damn it, I live in a BLUE state. This foliage stuff is misleading. The leaves are turning blue here, I tell ya.

____________________

Bigmike:

After 29 hours without a smoke, I thought I was at my knuckle-dragging right-wing meanest. (Yes, attempt #25 to quit). But you guys crack me up.

R's will never recover, blah, blah, blah. How bad did Reagan spank your little butts back in 84? 49-1. Funny, there are still Dem's in the world.

You guys have to be scared to death. What if the might O actually wins? It has been my experience that Dem's don't know what to do with power, and Repub's know too darn well what they can do with it.

____________________

H2OPlus:

Botany is right about some white men having a tough time voting for a black man. I also don't believe it shows up in the polls - not because people lie - but because people are generally unaware of how race can affect them on a subliminal level.

For instance, rather than realizing they aren't voting for a black because of race, they may say he's "too liberal." Since blacks are perceived as liberal, this will be an easy rationale for them to cling to. In other words, people may not be aware of how much race affects them.

However, the only white men who really count are Independents and Democrats. Republican white men are voting for McCain anyway.

A friend of mine and I were talking about this very issue. We both know some white, Democratic men who are having a difficult time deciding because of their racial views.

However, a couple have recently declared that they'll vote Obama simply because the economy is getting so bad. They hold the Republicans responsible.

Initially, we found this kind of strange considering their racial views, but then we realized that white men are willing to bet on black men if they believe it's profitable. After all, just look at how many of them bet on blacks in various sports (i.e. fantasy leagues, football tip sheets, boxing).

If they believe they'll make more money with Obama than McCain, then the color of money may make them color blind enough to vote Obama.


____________________

Guy Fawkes:

@ BigMike

"You don't get to reinvent America. America is not about just you any more than it is about just me. You can tweak a things here and there. But there are a some "problems" you may have trouble over-coming."

Agreed in general. Much of BO's rhetoric would have been rejected as silly liberal narcissism at any point in the last 50 years. But necessity is the mother of re-invention. What could never have been fixed in the past 50 years must now be fixed, because suddenly no one can deny it's broken.

On your list of obstacles, 1) the Constitution is not the obstacle. It's your second item 2) the Supreme Court, that has been obliterating the Constitution. As for needing 60+ senators, that's not completely out of the question. But even if we only get 57 or 59, that only calls for a more creative full-court press. They can't filibuster everything.

And it's not all about the President or the Congress. I like the Matrix references above, about taking the blue pill and waking up. An undemocratic society will not continue to give us what we want, even in shrink-wrapped form.

____________________

Bigmike:

They can't filibuster everything? I don't remember reading that rule anywhere. It must be similar to that rule that they can't vote against the bail out.

So if I disagree with Lib's I am drinking someone's koolaid or refusing to see reality. Funny, I thought I just had different opinions.

Like:

I don't want the Govt running health care.

I don't believe in redistribution of wealth. You get what you earn and you earn what you get. Exceptions do apply. Sometimes people need a helping hand. But not for their entire lives.

I would rather fight terrorist with bullets than subpoenas.

I could go on for a very long time. But they are just examples of how we have different ideas about fixing the same problems.

You know what you can do with your blue pill, or do I need to spell it out for you?

____________________

zotz:

Bigmike-
Don't worry, you're still mean. But the demographics are against you. I heard that the only reason the Reps are in this election at all is older 50+ voters going by 17 points for McCain. Voters below 50 are going for Obama by an equally large margin. What does that say for the future of your party? This election, I believe, represents a sea change in US history.

____________________

SuperCruncher:

1) Hail Mary Palin Pick
2) Extreme Negative Ads
3) Called a liar on the view
4) Tina Fey (Part 1)
5) Economy is sound
6) AIG should/should not get relief
7) Fire Cox
8) Economy Tanks
9) Threatens to postpone debate
10) Gets caught on Letterman
11) Palin meets Couric (Part 1)
12) McCain sits like potted plant in WH meeting
13) Seems to not be able to look at Obama in debate
14) Key moment "John I am not the one who sang songs about bombing Iran"
15) Tina Fey (Part 2)
16) John McCain saves bailout claim by proxies
17) Palin invades Pakistan
18) McCain taunts Obama's leadership on bbailout
19) Bailout fails

McCain exhaust stunts. Decides maverick almost rhymes with erratic.

For those of you keeping score. Like the swing states.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Kiptin- You do realize that you just demonstrated why Palin's inability to name any case before the Supreme Court is so telling. Even you knew about the Exxon vs. Baker case. Here's another easy one for her.

Alaska vs. The United States.

Both of those decisions were made while she was Governor. She has no clue?

____________________

SuperCruncher:

the list seems so incomplete

____________________

Bigmike:

SuperC

You are correct, of course. McCain has shot himself in the foot a dozen times, give or take. His "suspend" stunt probably cost him the election. I don't count Tina Fey or the View. I could care less what the liberal weenies in Hollywood think.

Zotz

"Sea changes" are not forever. Like I said, Reagan hammered the Dems but they lived on. You carry on that Conservatism is dead. You are not running against a Conservative. You haven't since 84. OK, I will give you Dole, but he was meaner than I am. Shoot, even I couldn't vote for him. I went Libertarian that election.

____________________

SuperCruncher:

Big Mike

I would strike The View

But Tina Fey has skewered Palin

Mainly with that, "when you get cornered, do you retreat to adorable comment"

It HAS made a difference. Perhaps as more than #5, #11, and #16

____________________

marctx:

Its unfair for Hanity to mock opinions of foreigners like Thoughtful. Thoughtful can speak his communist views and let the people decide if if that is the change we need.

____________________

Bigmike:

Actually, McCain said the fundamentals of the economy were sound. His mistake there was backing away from it.

He could have explained that, compared to the not too distant past (read that as the Carter years), unemployment, inflation, productivity, etc are not in too bad a shape. And most of us would have agreed that, yep, those are the fundamentals of the economy.

Question. When it comes to the bail out, why are Dems so ready to follow Bush/Cheney/Rove? Why isn't this another one of their failed policies?

____________________

thoughtful:

@marctx

That's pretty random as I am certainly not a communist.

What has Hannity got to do with anything?

____________________

cinnamonape:

Slinky- Actually read Pelosi's speech. She never mentioned the Republicans except to say she appreciated those that came together to support the "bipartisan plan". She was however scathing of Bush and Wall Street.

So these Republican House members are apparently so hypersensitive about hurting Bush's feelings? And then they go out and vote against the Bill that his Treasury Secretary has put forward?

Reality: They didn't jump ship because of Pelosi...they did so purely for political reasons.

____________________

thoughtful:

@marctx

Not a foreigner either,

____________________

SuperCruncher:

Just saw a McCain ad about Obama cutting off support for the troops.

The biggest thing JM doesn't get is...attacks on how Dems handled this crapturd war that Reps talked them into will NEVER get traction.

Oh goodness, Obama was going to cut off funds for a war that Americans would like too cut off the needless casualties, costs, and worldwide ill will for...

Thanks McCranky

____________________

Bigmike:

OK, libs don't want to answer the hard questions, so I will help.

When it comes to the bail out, why are Dems so ready to follow Bush/Cheney/Rove? Why isn't this another one of their failed policies?

Bush's bailout needed fixed. But it still hurts you to say he was almost right.

24 years from now, will Palin be as insignificant as Ferraro is today?

Gee, you hope so, because Ferraro never amounted to anything.

____________________

montana59801:

I think Obama isheavily underpolled in Montana. This is a state with a very popular Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. Mike Mansfield and Pat Williams are still very popular here. The population centers, with the exception of Billings and Great Falls, are very democratic- Helena, Missoula, Butte, Bozeman. There are lots of wealthy liberals moving into the state. There is also a large (in proportion to the population) university population. The Indian reservations are very excited about Obama. Finally, McCain's oppostion to Amtrak is very unpopular in the hi-line communities.

____________________

Guy Fawkes:

re: BigMike's last post

Right-wing anger is schizophrenic. When the Right is in control, the anger is really a kind of scorn, snarling, counter-insurgent Col. Kilgore swagger. It's irritation that there are any pipsqueak lefties remaining at all to step on. Fee fi fo fum, I smell the blood of a flag-burning socialist! Right-wing talk radio perfected this. It's the bully's anger that the skinny nerd has not fully submitted.

But when the tables turn, right-wing anger shifts into yelping, indignant outrage at the extremely Unfair Power (hah!) that the left and its allies in the MSM have, and how bad it is that these mean liberals are Oppressing the little old advocates of God and Country. (Orwell talked about a similar shift in Axis propaganda after D-Day.)

Whatever. I'm just sad Jesse Helms didn't live to see this.

____________________

SuperCruncher:

@Fawkes

Brilliant

____________________

zotz:

thoughtful-
marctx said that Obama was finished politically because of the lipstick on a pig incident. When I once called him stupid he cried about it. He's got no brains and no balls. In fact I think he only attacked you because he thought you were not here.

____________________

Bigmike:

Ah, so the Rep's talked the Dem's into voting for the war. What does that mean? You elect Dems who won't vote their convictions? You elect suckers? Sounds like you are calling them suckers, if someone can talk them into a war they don't really support.

Or is the truth that the Dem's looked at some polls, did a few focus groups, and didn't have the guts to go against them?

I will give the big eared O credit. He is one of a very few that were willing to vote their conscience. He was wrong, but he was gutsy.

____________________

mirrorball:

cinnamonape: Pelosi went off script a little. Her speech as delivered as a little different than the written version that's out there. Not hugely different, but supposedly this is the part that angered some Republicans.

From Politco's transcript of her speech as delivered:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14089.html

"When President Bush took office, he inherited President Clinton's surpluses — four years in a row, budget surpluses, on a trajectory of $5.6 trillion in surplus. And with his reckless economic policies within two years, he had turned that around ... and now eight years later the foundation of that fiscal irresponsibility, combined with an anything-goes economic policy, has taken us to where we are today. They claim to be free-market advocates when it's really an anything-goes mentality, no regulation, no supervision, no discipline. ..."


"... Democrats believe in a free market ... but in this case, in its unbridled form as encouraged, supported by the Republicans — some in the Republican Party, not all — it has created not jobs, not capital, it has created chaos."

____________________

montana59801:

at least our agricultural industry is doing fine. Most depressions, panics, famines, ect begin when agriculture collapses. The Great Depression was not caused by a stock market crash, rather the failure millions of farms. As a side note, we need to stop electing politicians based on trivial social issues and start electing people well-versed in economics or successful business owners. People who know how to put our resources to work.

____________________

Bigmike:

Guy

Where else can us righties and you lefties live in peace and harmony. It is still the best country on earth!

I don't want to squash you. It's fun to pick on you, as I am sure you enjoy jabbing back. And I hate to burst your bubble, but I don't do the talk radio gig. Sorry, I have a job that takes up my days. And it is one of those skinny nerd jobs too.

Indignant outrage. Nope. I may be shaking my head in disbelief at the mistakes McCain has made. But if you guys win, I accept that. No lawsuits to count until it comes out the other way. I won't HATE Obama the way you guys hate Bush. I may disagree with him. But that is my right.

____________________

Guy Fawkes:

Nothing personal, BigMike. Cheers to you--

____________________

SuperCruncher:

No no. I was a sucker too. I was for the war.

I just didn't realize that for Bush, history was a warehouse of confirmatory fables. (I stole that from Woodward.)

I actually think HE was more stupid than evil.

I think other neocons were more evil than stupid.

In the word of Pete Townshead, "We won't get fooled again."

If you are for a strong on defense you should resent having all your chips in Iraq.

Just in case China, Russia, Pakistan, or even Cuba decide to be provocative.


____________________

montana59801:

Our congress is pathetic. Think about it, are any of them Phd economists or CPAs? Most likely not. These are people who majored in political science and then became lawyers. Would you trust this congress to do your taxes?

____________________

zotz:

"As a side note, we need to stop electing politicians based on trivial social issues and start electing people well-versed in economics or successful business owners. People who know how to put our resources to work."

Amen! This culture war stuff is like a bad sci-fi movie called "Attack of the Wingnuts!"

____________________

montana59801:

Then again, it would be nice to go back to a time when the biggest "problems" facing this country were gays in the military and violence on TV.

____________________

SuperCruncher:

or Iran, North Korea, Syria, Canada and so on

____________________

Bigmike:

30 hours, no smokes!

I agree Bush is a screw up. Just like dear old dad. To be honest, I thought he would have plenty of help. I have always admired Cheney (yes, I am one of THOSE conservatives.) And given the alternatives of Gore and Kerry, I didn't have much to choose from. Kind of reminds me of this election.

There are about 50 Dem senators with more experience than BO. He is hospital food, real short on seasoning.

Biden didn't help. This is a guy who has been running for Pres for 20 yrs, and no one, even in the Dem party, wanted to vote for him.

____________________

montana59801:

Keep in mind the president is just the figurehead. Kennedy did not know the difference between monetary and fiscal policy, but he had the best and brightest advisors on his team and listened to them. But what Kennedy had was vison. The space program was the biggest asset to the US economy of the 20th Century. I see the same type of vison and leadership in Obama.

____________________

Bigmike:

montana59801

I hope you are right about BO's vision. Barring a huge mistake on his part, or some REAL dirt on him, he is in the drivers seat.

IF he wins, I am gonna fight hard on things like health care, the 2nd Amendment (I don't own a gun, but if I choose to, thats my business), and taxes. If you are gonna take my hard earned money, do something worthwhile with it!

Whoever wins this one is a one term wonder. The deck is stacked against them.

____________________

SuperCruncher:

I heard a new similarity between Lincoln and Kennedy today.

One week before Lincoln's assassination he was in Monroe Maryland.

____________________

Bigmike:

Parting thoughts.

Be careful what you ask for. A lot of successful business owners are CONSERVATIVE.

I was gonna leave this off, but after Monroe Maryland..... Watch out for those Canadians. They are dangerous.

I am thinking about moving to Montana, just to offset some of those lib votes.

____________________

SuperCruncher:

I'm a successful business owner and I am independent.

____________________

Bigmike:

I didn't say all.

See you in Butte!

Goodnight

____________________

SuperCruncher:

indeed

or Bozeman

Sleep well, where the skies are big.

____________________

cinnamonape:

mirrorball~ That's the speech I read. She earlier complements the Republicans who voted to support the bipartisan legislation . She merely pointed out that "some" Republicans participated in creating the deregulatory chaos that led to this situation. If those who were then going to vote "Aye" for this Bill then jumped ship for that ambiguous remark...well they are a bunch of cry-babies who outed themselves as the guilty parties by switching back. She didn't "name names" or even identify which legislation was at issue. Still they jumped to their traditional obstructionist mode.

Amazing! I wonder what will happen when they have to explain to their constituents who lost 30% on their 401K's over the week or face foreclosure or losing their job.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Big Mike: "IF he wins, I am gonna fight hard on things like health care, the 2nd Amendment (I don't own a gun, but if I choose to, thats my business), and taxes. If you are gonna take my hard earned money, do something worthwhile with it!"

Well Obama has no intention of taking away the rights of hunters and people with non-military style guns in their homes to have them. If things start getting "insurrectionary" (go re-read your Constitution"...especially Article II on who regulates the militias) he may have to deal with "disorganized militias". But Bush and the Repugs already passed a slew of laws to do this under the Patriot Act.

Health care. McCain wants to prevent people from forming "free associations" and void legal agreements negotiated between their unions and employers. That would certainly make the insurance companies happy since they could deal with a bunch of isolated individuals rather than "organizations" who could negotiate lower packages and policies.That allows them to raise prices and profits. And who, ultimately would pay for those "$5000/person tax rebates" McCain touts if not the taxpayers. As well, the more comprehensive the policy one gets (higher payments) the more you'll be taxed on it under McCain's plan...he taxes health insurance!

Obama wants to expand these agreements (policies) to cover more people while keeping the insurers and providers private (i.e. his plan isn't single-payer/single-supplier) . It's simple economics...economy of scale.

And as far as taxes...well if you want the big CEO's and executives of these big corporations to have lower salaries and no "golden parachutes" (admittedly maybe you think that they deserve these for doing such a splendid job)...then why give it all back to them by allowing them even more tax cuts and a "Capital Gains Tax". That's precisely how they will get even richer (far more than any losses they'd make with reductions of their salary cap)!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Big Mike: "IF he wins, I am gonna fight hard on things like health care, the 2nd Amendment (I don't own a gun, but if I choose to, thats my business), and taxes. If you are gonna take my hard earned money, do something worthwhile with it!"

Well Obama has no intention of taking away the rights of hunters and people with non-military style guns in their homes to have them. If things start getting "insurrectionary" (go re-read your Constitution"...especially Article II on who regulates the militias) he may have to deal with "disorganized militias". But Bush and the Repugs already passed a slew of laws to do this under the Patriot Act.

Health care. McCain wants to prevent people from forming "free associations" and void legal agreements negotiated between their unions and employers. That would certainly make the insurance companies happy since they could deal with a bunch of isolated individuals rather than "organizations" who could negotiate lower packages and policies.That allows them to raise prices and profits. And who, ultimately would pay for those "$5000/person tax rebates" McCain touts if not the taxpayers. As well, the more comprehensive the policy one gets (higher payments) the more you'll be taxed on it under McCain's plan...he taxes health insurance!

Obama wants to expand these agreements (policies) to cover more people while keeping the insurers and providers private (i.e. his plan isn't single-payer/single-supplier) . It's simple economics...economy of scale.

And as far as taxes...well if you want the big CEO's and executives of these big corporations to have lower salaries and no "golden parachutes" (admittedly maybe you think that they deserve these for doing such a splendid job)...then why give it all back to them by allowing them even more tax cuts and a "Capital Gains Tax". That's precisely how they will get even richer (far more than any losses they'd make with reductions of their salary cap)!

____________________

joydivision8:

I have been doing my own statistical political analysis for the past 20 years or so. Every model I come up with gives Barack Obama no more than a 15% chance of winning this election. I have been within 2% of the actual result in each of the last 5 presidential elections. The average result I am showing is McCain with a 4 point edge in popular vote and with roughly +30 electoral votes.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Back to polling methodologies.

Here's an article which suggests polls may be systematically missing 2-3% of Obama LIKELY voters who exclusively use cell-phones. They found that this was a consistent figure after 3 surveys, and is suggested by other surveys.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20080929/ts_usnews/dopollsmissobamavoterswithnolandline

I actually think that PEW's methodology underestimates these numbers as they use outdated Commerce Dept. numbers and have underestimated the youth vote by ignoring the 30% increase in participation numbers from 2000-2004. And PEW's Survey actually dealt with LIKELY voters...those who had voted in previous elections and were registered, That might underestimate the turnout this time. Thus the cell-phone impact acts as a force amplifier to the turnout of 18-30 year olds.

But as they admit, even a 2-3% under-survey would make a major difference especially in very close battleground states. Think Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina with large University age samples.

____________________

change:

Honestly, how can a conservative be for Mccain after he has shown how bad his judgments stinks. He choose a vp that claims her states proximity to Russia enhances her foreign policy credentials! that is something my little sister wouldn't say, and she still thinks santa clause is real!!!! come on conservatives that gotta be appalling to you! suddenly obama is the safer choice

____________________

common sense:

@joy division : You must be Sarah's personal pollster. I'm gald you have been so accurate in the past. Please forward your resume to Gallup. 15 percent chance that Obama will win ? I'd tap out my credit line to cover that bet but all my accounts were with WAMU and Wachovia. Enjoy the debate.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Joydivision8

Invest in a new calculator,

Or visit the British Bookmakers and Intrade for the odds!

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

niTpiK said...
"I am still curious why Obamanation is still so obsessed with Palin."

Gee I wonder why people want to have confidence that the person who is one heart beat away from the Oval Office?

Maybe this information will cause you to have some idea:

6 September 1901 - President William F. McKinley assassinated
22 November, 1963 - President John F. Kennedy assassinated

13 October, 1912 - Attempted assassination of Presidential candidate Theodore Roosevelt
15 February, 1933 - Attempted assassination of President-elect Franklin Roosevelt
1 November, 1950 - Attempted assassination of President Harry Truman
11 December 1960 - Attempted assassination of President-elect John F. Kennedy
14 April 1972 - Attempted assassination of President Richard Nixon
22 February 1974 - Attempted assassination of President Richard Nixon
5 September 1975 - Attempted assassination of President Gerald Ford
22 September 1975 - Attempted assassination of President Gerald Ford
5 May 1979 - Attempted assassination of President Jimmy Carter
30 March 1981 -Attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan
12 September 1994 - Attempted assassination of President William Clinton
29 October 1994 - Attempted assassination of President William Clinton
7 February 2001 - Attempted assassination of President George W. Bush
10 May 2005 - Attempted assassination of President George W. Bush

2 August 1923 - President Warren G. Harding died of either a heart attack or a stroke
12 April 1945 - President Franklin Roosevelt died of a cerebral hemorrhage.
9 August 1974 - President Richard Nixon resigned

24 September 1955 - President Dwight Eisenhower suffers a near-fatal heart attack

And that is just going back to 1901, 107 years ago.

____________________

Robi:

I don't remember someone trying to kill Bush. What was the plan?

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Robi said...
"I don't remember someone trying to kill Bush. What was the plan?"

Robi,

Not the greatest source, but this is from Wikipedia:

George W. Bush

First assassination attempt

7 February 2001: While President George W. Bush was occupied in the White House Residence, Washington, DC, Robert Pickett, standing outside the perimeter fence, discharged a number of shots from a weapon in the direction of the White House. Eileen O'Connor, CNN Correspondent, reported: 'the U.S. Park Police said that the type of handgun that was -- that was confiscated, if it was an unobstructed view to the White House, could -- a bullet could have reached the White House. But there are a lot of trees, a lot of bushes between this sidewalk, where the suspect was, Robert Pickett, and the White House, so that there was obstructions, mainly trees and bushes'. Following a standoff of about ten minutes, the incident ended when a Secret Service officer shot Pickett, resulting in an injury which required hospital surgery. Pickett was found to have a history of emotional problems and employment grievances. Lacking conclusive evidence that Mr. Bush was a personal target (although the accused had indeed written to the President on the subject of his grievances), a court in July, 2001 sentenced Pickett to three years in jail in connection with the incident.

Second assassination attempt

10 May 2005: While President George W. Bush was giving a speech in the Freedom Square in Tbilisi, Georgia, Vladimir Arutyunian threw a live Soviet-made RGD-5 hand grenade towards the podium where he was standing and where Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and their two wives and officials were seated. The grenade was not operative and did not explode.

Arutyunian was arrested in July 2005, but not before killing an Interior Ministry agent while resisting arrest. He was convicted in January 2006, and was given a life sentence.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

This is the one poll that should be important to you.

I am waiting .....

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zotz:

Fivethirtyeight.com has figured out why the Battleground tracking poll is so out of line with the other three. They don't weight their samples by age!

"Take a look for yourself at the "weighted tables" that Battleground released a couple of days ago (PDF). These crosstabs provide a ton of detail -- kudos to Battleground for doing so -- but unfortunately there is one red flag. This is the age makeup of their weighted sample:

18-34 17%
35-44 12%
45-64 40%
65+ 31%

Intuitively, this probably looks fairly wrong to you -- almost twice as many age 65+ voters as age18-34 voters? And in fact, it almost certainly is wrong. By comparison, here is the approximate age composition of the electorate in 2004, as according to the US Census Bureau**:

18-34 26%
35-44 17%
45-64 38%
65+ 19%

Battleground's numbers are not even close. About 19 percent of voters were aged 65 and older in 2004, as compared to the 31 percent in the Battleground sample. On the other hand, 43 percent of voters were aged 18-44, as opposed to Battleground's 29 percent. These differences are much, much too large to be attributable to chance alone. (And all of this is assuming that turnout in 2008 will match that in 2004, even though youth turnout increased markedly in the primaries and is at least somewhat probable to do so in the general election."

Fail!
Next...

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boomshak:

Well, Obama should have a good day of polling yesterday based upon the economic uncertainty.

We'll see how this all fleshes out.

Anyway, they'll get some version of this thing passed later this week. Looks like the stock market realizes that here.

____________________

boomshak:

@zotz:

Since when are you a champion of weightings? You never complain when bad weightings negatively affect McCain?

Typical, Predictable, Sad.

____________________

boomshak:

Stephanopoulos: Voters blame Repubicans for bill failure
07:19 | 30/09/2008
George Stephanopoulos

ABC, Good Morning America


Stephanopoulos stated that the earliest anything can get done in Congress will be Wednesday. He said that "the power is in Wall Street now" as "another dropoff in the market on Wall Street would create more pressure" on Congress and force action in Congress.

Stephanopoulos revealed that a new ABC News poll coming out this morning asked voters who they blame for the failure of the vote. "The voters seem to be blaming the Republicans in Congress more than the Democrats in Congress" and "for the overall economic situation...voters tend to blame President Bush."

Gee, What a SHOCKER! Can't wait to see the sample on this one.

One thing to keep in mind. MOST Americans BY FAR do not want this bill as it was. So if Republicans are to blame that it failed, isn't that a good thing for Republicans?

Why would people call their Congressman telling them to vote NO and then vote against the party that killed the bill?

____________________

zotz:

boomshak-
This is not about me. Look at the numbers. Battleground is guilty of gross incompetence!

____________________

slinky:

BigMike declares above that he will fight Obama on Health Care reform.

These conservatives will never learn.

Every doctor I know is in favor of some kind of healthcare reform, and most docs. are willing to accept a salary cut to get there.

You have know-nothings like Mike opposing reform without knowing anything -- because he's been convinced he knows by big business.

It's really sad.

First an economic debacle. Then opposition to intelligent reform.

Here, BigMike, try and educate yourself:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/sickaroundtheworld/
WE do NOT have the best HEALTHCARE SYSTEM in the world, here in the US. No way, no how. You've been brainwashed.

____________________

riverrun:

R2000 for Tuesday has Obama leading by 10% - the first day;s polling with 3 days post-debate interviewing. His strongest gains continue to be from independents.

Monday's single day lead is 11% - unchanged from Sunday.

McCain's net favorability has turned negative - down to -3%. The more the voters see of is response to the finacial mess, the less they like him. (Obama favorability at +26%, Palin at -11%)

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boomshak:

@riverrun:

R2000 - 26% republicans in sample. 'Nuff said. Put this bogus poll to rest.

Anytime you post this poll you are telling the world that you are STUPID enough to believe only 26% of Americans are Republicans.

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boomshak:

@zotz:

"boomshak-
This is not about me. Look at the numbers. Battleground is guilty of gross incompetence!"

Dude you have just become comical. I didn't hear any outrage from you about gross incompetence when CNN ran their debate poll giving Dems a 14 point sampling advatange.

Not a peep.

Face it, you are a partisan hack.

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boomshak:

DAMNING NEW EVIDENCE PELOSI THREW THE VOTE:

"It has been revealed this morning that prior to yesterday's vote on the bailout bill, Nancy Pelosi went to 1) freshmen Congressmen in tough districts, 2) friends and 3) Committee Leaders and told them specifically, "You have my permission to vote NO"."

Incredible.

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macsuk:

KipTin

Thats not throwing the vote. Everyone knew the Democrats were not going to take the entire hit with an unpopular bill to fix a problem caused by the Republicans. That has been reported for days.

Fail

____________________

macsuk:

Opps I meet boomshak

I get you two trolls confused

____________________

macsuk:

zotz

The Battleground Poll must be polling every trailer park in Southern Ohio. Seriously with their party ID method, when Obama gets 2-3 points ahead of Mccain it is all over for McCain/Failin

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slinky:

@Repubs:

In a difficult re-election year, Dems. didn't want to be blamed by their electorate for an unpopular bill. A deal was struck by Congressional leadership, between Boehners and Pelosi and Reid, that if sufficient Dems. and Repubs. would vote for the bill, those at greatest risk of public backlash, in both parties, could vote 'NO'.

This was widely reported and explained several times.

The Dems kept their part of the bargain, voting 2:1 FOR the bill. The Repubs. failed to keep their part of the bargain.

End of story.

(PS - If you didn't know it; that's how things are done in the House).

____________________

boomshak:

@macsuk:

Why do you refer to Republicans as "trolls"? I wasn't aware this was a "Democrat Owned" site?

I guess it is, thanks for sharing.

____________________

boomshak:

Regarding John Boehner:

Do you think we could have picked a leader who looked a bit less like an alcoholic coming off a 3 day bender?

____________________

boomshak:

Dear John Boehner,

Where the f*ck is our Contract w/ America. Where is the manifesto telling Americans all the cool things we will do if we are put back in power?

Worst leadership in the history of earth.

Obama isn't winning, we just keep punting on first down.

____________________

zotz:

Boomshak-
"Face it, you are a partisan hack"

ROTFLMAO!!!

Is this your new plan?... getting me to laugh myself to death?

It almost worked!!!

____________________

boomshak:

NEW SAGARIN NFL RATINGS OUT: REDSKINS #1!

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

Holy Moly.

____________________

macsuk:

boomshak

Excuse me...I met a paid troll

____________________

boomshak:

One thing to note in the above Redskins #1 poll:

Redskins have the #1 MOST DIFFICULT SCHEDULE in the NFL this year. Wow.

____________________

boomshak:

The Skins have beaten the #2, #6 and #13 teams. Damn.

____________________

boomshak:

@zotz:

I was hoping looking into the mirror this morning would cause you to fall into shock :)

____________________

slinky:

Here's how it came down (reported by Greenspan's wife):

Gingrich worked to kill the bailout plan
07:22 | 30/09/2008
Andrea Mitchell, NBC Reporter
MSNBC's Morning Joe

Andrea Mitchell said on MSNBC's Morning Joe that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich,, worked very hard behind the scenes to kill the bailout plan, despite issuing a statement that he would have supported the legislation if where still in Congress

Mitchell Said:

"I am told reliably by leading Republicans who are close to him. He was whipping against this up until the last minute.... Newt Gingrich was telling people in the strongest possible language that this was a terrible deal, not only that it was a terrible deal., that it was a disaster it was the end of democracy as we know it that it was socialism, and then at the last minute comes out with a statement when the vote was already in play"

____________________

slinky:

Blunt Steps Away from Claim that Pelosi Speech Cost a Dozen GOP Votes

September 30, 2008 5:45 AM

In an interview with ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf that aired on Nightline Monday evening, Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo. -- the House Minority Whip and chief House Republican negotiator on the bailout bill language -- explained his view of today's doings.

So, what happened? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the Republicans needed to deliver 80 votes to pass the bailout.

Only 65 voted for the bill.

"I don't know that Speaker Pelosi gets to decide that," Blunt said, "We were close to that number when we went to the floor. A couple of things happened that we didn't quite get there but, well, you know, ... things are hard to do people are always looking for that last thing that makes them mad, that last thing that says, 'Well, I was gonna be there and that happened.'"

Blunt was keen to extend the olive branch and get back on a bipartisan footing after the bailout bill failed and the Dow Jones fell more than 777 points, more than it has ever tumbled in one day before.

And in the end, Blunt said, the reality of a downturn might not be entirely bad for the prospects of the bailout (even if it's bad for the economy) because it might shake the public and some US representatives awake to this economic crisis.

"At some point it helps a lot, if there's a real credit crisis in the country, if local banks start calling their congressmen and saying, 'Well it's finally gotten here, we now feel the pinch that they were talking about in the big banks ten days ago, we just began to feel it yesterday,'" Blunt said. "That'll make more impact in getting this to where the true heartbeat of a representative of the people is -- what impact it's having on the Main Street they live on than all the talk you can get about big banks and world financial markets."

Some of Blunt's colleagues had said Pelosi's speech on the bill, an hour before the vote, was too partisan and swayed a dozen Republicans from earlier pledges to support it.

Blunt was reluctant to attribute the loss of 12 Republican votes entirely to Pelosi's speech, but did say her speech was not helpful. "We clearly had some Members that were there but were precariously there and one or two of them may have been affected by the Speaker's speech," Blunt said. "In the weekend of negotiating this, the spirit in the room was very good, but the press conferences the Speaker and a few Democrats had outside the room were invariably partisan. None of that helped."

Blunt said that Republican leaders "had twelve people beyond, that we thought we had going into the float that we didn't have for various reasons and I haven't had time to go back and ask them all why it was that they didn't do what we thought they were gonna do ... That one speech was not helpful but I think you don't want to give too much blame to that speech."

So what next?

Blunt says congressional leaders are "going tolook for things that can be added to the edge of this bill that might change it. Or the other option is to just go in a totally new direction. But this same bill I think cannot pass the House without some kind of addition."

-- Jake Tapper and Z. Byron Wolf

____________________

ErnieLynch:

I am starting worry about our Boomer here. It looks like he either having a total meltdown or got split by the Hadrion Collider. If he starts chanting "GOBAMA", it may be too late.

Do we have a doctor in the house or someone who lives next to a doctor?

____________________

slinky:

Rasmussen has Obama at 51 this morning.

____________________

macsuk:

Last night Hannity Insanity tried 5 different approches on his show to get Rasmussen to give him and his listeners some good news. Five times Easmussen tried but just could not. Rasmussen to Hannity..."No this is not a bounce it is a trend."

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Besides Hotline Obama 6 pt lead today, internals show Obama holds a double-digit lead in battleground states. Among RVs surveyed in CO, MI, NH, NM, FL, OH, PA, VA, WI and NV, the IL Sen. leads 50-40%. One week ago (in the survey completed 9/22), he led 45-42%.

____________________

marctx:

McCain is toast. I hope a lot of people write about this election year and the "death" of journalism in America.

Its now not even necessary to count the number of lies and bias spin coming out of MSM, because it is pretty much 100% or a new lie or misrepresentation per minute.

Obama doesn't even need to campaign anymore. It's like China where the media is controlled and they tell the public what to think leaving out any record, history, or facts.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Also, Research2000 has Obama's lead at 10 points today! Last week's ABC poll not so much of an outlier afterall.

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boomshak:

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday—the first update with results based entirely upon interviews conducted following the first Presidential Debate--shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. Obama opened a five-point lead heading into Friday’s debate and has retained a five or six point edge every day since (see trends)."

- As expected, Obama gets a small bounce from the economic uncertainty.

MY TAKE:
Here in NC, Obama is doing a number of things right:

1) He is running ads in which he personally appears, looking like he cares about the voter.
2) His ads are proposing specific plans to deal with problems.

Meanwhile, McCain's ad team continues to compete for the title of "Worst Ever In the History of Earth".

1) McCain does NOT appear in any of his ads, therefore he does not "connect" with the voter.
2) Rather than running ISSUE ads, McCain is still running "Don't vote for Obama because he is a scary man" ads that he ran a month ago. IMHO, they are HIGHLY INEFFECTIVE to the point of insulting one's intelligence.

Right now, if McCain's Campaign and Ad Team don't get a clue, McCain quite well could lose this election in a landslide, and deservedly so due to complete and utter incompetence.

It is hard to imagine America granting absolute power to liberals; however, in the presence of a complete vacuum on the conservative side, it is conceivable.

IT'S TRAGIC REALLY:
McCain is allowing Obama who is about as left as they come, to paint himselof falsely as a very reasonable and thoughtful moderate. It all sounds good, but we all know it is utter bs.

It is tragic when one's champion in such vital times seems to be so unfit for the task.

____________________

riverrun:

Diageo/Hotline is a further tracker to show Obama nudging up today. Once again, the internals tell us more than the top-line.

O. is gaining strongly in the key swing states, and the favorability ratings are moving sharply his way. (Confirming the trend seen in R2000).

From the release accompanying the raw data:

" - Obama holds a double-digit lead in battleground states. Among RVs surveyed in CO, MI, NH, NM, FL, OH, PA, VA, WI and NV, the IL Sen. leads 50-40%. One week ago (in the survey completed 9/22), he led 45-42%.

- Enthusiasm for the Dem ticket continues to outpace enthusiasm for McCain. 68% of Obama voters are enthusiastic about their candidate, while only 46% of McCain voters say the same. A week ago, that 22% gap was just 7% -- 58% were enthusiastic for Obama and 51% were enthusiastic for McCain."

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

You tell em marctx.
The economy is just fine. Only the MSM tells us otherwise. Americans are just a bunch of wimps. The fundamentals of the economy are strong. McSame is really ahead in all the polls. Maverick. Reformer. Country first damnit! Drill Baby Drill.

Whatever you do, just don't blame the Republicans or McSame. Blame the messenger.

____________________

riverrun:

@boomshak:

Sensible comment on McCain! No wonder his favorability and enthusiasm ratings area tanking.

____________________

Florida Voter:

This should be another wakeup call for the Repubs. 35 days til election day and they are either behind or even in quite a few rosie red states. McCains message continues to be a theme of "an angry old man." Here in Florida, he offers no new ideas, no new policies, etc., and yet he expects voters to vote for him. I took Nov. 4th and 5th as vacation days, figuring I would be up late on the 4th waiting for the election to be decided. It may be over well before we count the mountain and the west timezone states. I may be in bed by 11 on the 4th! :)

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nick-socal:

Lol looks like someone is lying... Economic Disaster! Economic Calamity! The Next Great Depression! You Must Act Now!

HaHa. And here we have the Congress voting NO on the bailout (supposedly over something as not-caring-about-America's-interests as "The Old Lady From S.F. Hurt My Feelings).

AND yet the stock market seems to not think it's such a big deal. So what gives? I mean they are reporting on CNBC that we have probably hit bottom in the stock market. Oh really? So if we're to have a depression, a run on banks, 3 million plus out of work, hundreds of thousands of businesses shut down, the first thing to do would be to buy stock in companies that are going to fail??

Please. This is the same administration who lied about Weapons of Mass Destruction and we needed to go to WAR and do it NOW before we're nuked by Iraq.

HaHa boys looks like you lost. Today and tomorrow will give the Congress a clear picture of their BS Economic Disaster lie. Good thing they voted no and could stall to get it a test. Something the SHOULD have done with the Iraq War lie.

____________________

carl29:

Hello guys!!! I just dropped by to see how things are setting here. As usual, some of "us" are in disagreement with those flawed, biased, liberal polls. We know, this is a vast left wing conspiracy from the liberal pollsters, including Rasmussen-a closet liberal :-) Don't worry we know that in reality everything is going fine for the McCain camp. I haven't had the chance of stopping by in the last few days because I'm preparing a paper for my Torts class, in addition of studying for a Business Law test. I will be back as soon as I'm done with my academic duties. Take care guys. Don't get all worked up with that liberal media/biased pollsters/flawed polls :-)

*Hugs and regards for kerrchdavis and MNLatteLiberal. Keep it up guys :-)

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nick-socal:

@boomshak, Why so glum? There's three debates left. This isn't over by any stretch.

So who's lying about the bailout? I mean it doesn't look too much like Economic Disaster too much today.

____________________

boomshak:

@riverrun:

I am always sensible. I am also not blind. Obama is winning by default because McCain is failing to show up to the fight.

You could tell by th seismic shift towards McCain when he added Sarah palin initially that America was just ACHING to vote for him. But he has squandered that good will by horribly mishandling Palin (and about 20 other good opportunities).

The tragic thing for Amrica is that Obama is lying to us. He has NO INTENTION of governing as a moderate. He is not just a liberal, he is a radical liberal.

Being well spoken and running a good campaign does not make one's politics right.

The Devil convinced 1/3 of the angels to rebel against God. Hitler lead the German people happily to Armageddon. Silver-tongued devils are nothing new.

It is just sad that the one leading our side of the fight appears to not be up to the job.

Well, let's see how the Democrats handle absolute power with no one to blame but themselves.

____________________

marctx:

BOOMFAIL:

I'm not arguing with the polls. Its clear Obama is running away with this.

Why do you think McCain and the republicans are to blame for the economic crisis? Did you go back and look up legislation of each democrat and republican and how they voted?

NOOOOOO! The media told you and the rest of the public that it was.

Two sides to every story but you only hear one.

Like Jack Caferty could have easily said "those damn 94 democrats ruined the bailout"

Or Snuffleupagus could have said it was Bill Clinton, ACORN, and the democrats that screwed the public with these laws forcing banks to give loans to people that can't afford it.

Or Brian Williams could have said "the democrats are playing politics when McCain is really working to get the bailout passed"

There are a million examples of pro-Obama media bias.

That is why Obama was cheer leading the crisis. The worse it gets the better for Obama.

McCain said the fundamentals were strong because he was Bush like or Roosevelt like presidential like in "calming the masses".

Obama was scaring the sh@it out of everyone to get the market to crash so he can win the election.

____________________

boomshak:

Hotline:

"- Obama holds a double-digit lead in battleground states. Among RVs surveyed in CO, MI, NH, NM, FL, OH, PA, VA, WI and NV, the IL Sen. leads 50-40%. One week ago (in the survey completed 9/22), he led 45-42%."

Doubtful this is true.

____________________

boomshak:

I track all of this back ot what I call the "pussification" of the Republican Party by George Bush.

His whole "compassionate conservative" BS was sort of an implicit admission that up to that point, conservatism had NOT been compassionate.

Under Reagan and under Gingrich, we were a bold and fearless party. Under Bush we have become a bunch of sniveling pussies.

Maybe the best thing for the Republican Party will be to get the pants beat off us here and flush out this old guard of wimps and get some bold new blood in there.

It's sad to see us go down without a fight.

You liberals have beencraving absolute power. You may get it and you may wish you hadn't.

____________________

macsuk:

boomshak

Good point..The old guard of the Republican party you love so much only left the country with the SNL crisis.

____________________

riverrun:

Boomshak:

Why should you find it so hard to believe the Hotline claim of a 5% swing in Battleground states?

Rasmussen said alsmost the same thing when releasing their 5 b'ground results yesterday:

"Polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia shows that Barack Obama has gained a net 3 to 5 percentage points in each state compared to the previous Fox News/ Rasmussen Reports poll."

____________________

nick-socal:

@boomshak, You said "You liberals have beencraving absolute power. You may get it and you may wish you hadn't."

Nope, won't wish we he hadn't gotten it. See, like you said, we're not afraid or pussies. That's your party, like you so eloquently said.

Nah, we'll use that power to do good things and won't be afraid of it. It'll even benefit you believe it or not.

____________________

boomshak:

@nick-socal:

It is evident to me that McCain is not "growing" as the election nears it's close and Obama is. McCain is not learning from his mistakes and Obama is.

Let's not forget, we only have McCain because Huckabee (in his arrogance), split the coservative base vote with Romney. If not for Huckabee, Romney would have won the nomination in a walk.

Can you imagine a Romney/Jindal candidacy here given the tough economic times?

____________________

Connor:

@Batony

You are ignoring the huge influx of young professionals into North Carolina over the past 5 years.

____________________

boomshak:

MY TAKE ON THE STATE OF THE RACE:
If all things remain as they are today, Obama will win, and maybe by a lot. If Obama does win, winning in a landslide would actually be better as it would send a signal that America wants his moderate policies and he better damned well stick to them.

If he wins with a mandate to govern to the middle and then governs left, he will be in BIG BIG BIG trouble.

BUT, LOTS CAN CHANGE:
1) The economic crisis wanes.
2) Israel bombs Iran.
3) Biden makes a drooling fool of himself in the debate.
4) palin amazes in the debate, re-energizing white female voters.

CONCLUSION:
If Obama does win (based upon McCain's incompetent campaign), I hope he wins in a LANDSLIDE. This will FORCE him to actually govern as he has run, as a MODERATE. America will never forgive him if we find he was just a Liberal Wolf in Moderate Sheeps clothing.

Everything can still change. 40 days in politics is forever. Maybe McCain will suddenly grow a set and a brain.

____________________

KipTin:

Of course Pelosi's speech was not helpful. It reeked of an Obama stump speech rather than bipartisan outreach. Many Democrats' and Republicans' Congressional careers were on the line here. With voters in their districts rebelling in large and loud numbers against the bailout, a vote for it would mean almost certain defeat on election day unless one were in a "safe" district. Look at the Democrats who voted against the bill. For example: Both Udalls who are running for Senate in Colorado and New Mexico.

A further note: Glenn Thrush from CBS News asks "Will Obama lobby the Congressional Black Caucus, which defected to the nays, to vote for the package when it comes to the floor again?"

Former Speaker of the House Tom Foley would NEVER have pulled such a political stunt as Pelosi did who strayed dramatically into Obamaland politics from her prepared and rather tame speech of bipartisanhip. Foley was the ultimate statesman, whereas Pelosi has revealed herself as the ultimate San Francisco liberal. I had hope for her in the first 100 days in 2007, but she has failed miserably as a leader. Pelosi spoke for Obama, and those who voted against the bailout spoke for the people they represent.

Rasmussen polling shows that support for the bailout is only 33%. (Ironically, while Rasmussen Investor index is falling, the Consumer Confidence index is rising. I guess that reveals the disconnect exhibited in yesterday's vote.)

Bottom line is that the people were not convinced that the proposed bailout was the correct solution. There will be NO action today because it is the Jewish New Year holiday, but Congress will be back tomorrow.

McCain this morning presented a comprehensive list of short-term solutions until the long-term problem can be solved. McCain and Obama both propose increasing the FDIC insured amount from $100K to $250K... which by the way had already been proposed by House Republicans. So I guess Obama thinks the GOP do have some good ideas. (I am not aware that Obama has any new ideas of his own on this matter.)

BTW: Most people do not realize that in 2006 FDIC adopted new rules to provide up to $250,000 in deposit insurance for consumer retirement accounts a a single insured institution: primarily traditional and Roth IRAs along with self-directed Keogh accounts, "457 Plan" accounts for state government employees, and employer-sponsored "defined contribution plan" accounts that are self-directed, "401(k)" accounts.

____________________

macsuk:

Intrade now shows that it is a closer race bewteen McCain for Pres and Palin withdrawls, then it is between Obama for Pres and and McCain for Pres.

I remember all the Republicans saying how stupid it was for Obama to pick Biden instead of Clinton. Do you think maybe McCain wishes he had been able to get along with Mit?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

nick-socal today is the day you predicted last week that McCain would be ahead. I don't see it. Could you tell me where to look for these #'s to support your position. Boomshak, I'll be asking you the same thing on Sunday. Does everyone realize EVERY day that goes by these polls become more accurate?

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PortlandRocks:

KipTin correction, Obama promised raising the FDIC insured amount to $250,000 MCCAIN followed. What's new.

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PortlandRocks:

I hope McCain drops Palin after she is toasted in the debate, then the news cycle can spin for the next 30 days about how McCain GAFFED on his 1st presidential decision.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Boomshak Romney wouldn't win this election either. He looks like a slime ball... and your tolerant Evangelical friends wouldn't come out to vote for a MORMON.

____________________

KipTin:

I disagree with boomshak... Obama may win, but not in a landslide. If things stay as they are, then most people will be looking for more depth and substance from both candidates to handle the economic crisis. And unless Obama changes his persona of not taking risks and committing himself to specifics, then he may even lose.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

As much as the righties are now questioning McCain it is still my belief he is the ONLY Republican that could hold within 10 points of Obama. It's starting to pull away because Americans are now getting to know Obama better now that they are paying attention and they see a steady, calm, intelligent leader. They see McCain's pick of Palin as a GIMMICK. Americans are not in the mood to have a BEER with the candidates this time around.

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boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

Let me be succinct. McCain is running a sh*tty campaign. I find this very disappointing.

If Obama governs as he has run, I could live with it. However, that's the rub, isn't it? he certainly has not run in the general as he ran in the primary. he certainly is not running now as he has legislated for 10 years.

What are Obama's core beliefs? Who knows. His values change like the wind.

With Obama, people are buying the pretty box and hoping for the best once they open it.

____________________

zoom:

@boomshak

After posting before that I was going to ignore you, I have changed my mind because finally you have stopped spinning (for the time being at least). I want to address your assertion that Obama is a radical leftist who is lying about his political beliefs. I have no doubt that you believe this assertion to be true. I have little doubt that you are mistaken.

I live in Illinois and actually know some political types who know Obama either first hand (people who actually know Obama) or very close second hand (i.e., close friends of close political advisors to Obama). There are some concerns about him from even people who support him--but not about him being a radical leftist. The concerns are more about whether he is really just an "empty suit" who speaks well but is not necessay capable of doing the things necessary to get things done (as a strong Obama supporter myself, I actually have this concern but am willing to take a chance because I think he is very intelligent, I generally agree with his positions and the alternative--McCain--is unacceptable to me).

I can tell you that all I have heard has convinced me he is NOT an idealogue. He is a pragamist. He will listen to all of his advisors and make pragmatic decisions. Are his goals generally liberal? Yes. Will he try to move the country in a direction that you probably would not want it to go? I suspect absolutely he will try. But if his advisors (and his main economic advisor is a "student" of Robert Rubin--not a radical leftist) convince him the plan will not work or will hurt the economy--he won't do it.

In addition, his policital associations have been really taken out of context. His association with Ayers is really minimal (the board he was on with Ayers was also served by many conservative board members--it was an attempt to help the school system and not an attempt to implement radical left ideas). His assocation with Rev. Wright, while admittedly is a legitimate issue, does not "prove" that he agrees with Wright--just that he allowed political expediency (belonging to an influential church) override any issues with the radical surmons (which surmons Obama claims he never heard--which might be true). It is certainly true in any event that most of the time Wright was preaching the gospel not anti-Americanism or racism. There is just no reason to believe that Obama agrees with Wright on these radical views.

So vote against Obama on conservative principles. That is your right. I would expect nothing less from a conservative. But relax about him being a radical. It is just not true.

And please, I hope you spinning days are over. The conversations are much more interesting when reality is acknowledged. It seems that now you have accepted (or at least are finally willing to admit) that unless something dramatic happens before 11/4 (e.g., terrorist attack or major blunder by Obama), Obama will be the next POTUS. Stop the trolling, stop the drama, stop the fearmongering and accept our country's future (and hope for the best).

____________________

macsuk:
____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak how can you say as an educated person that it is Obama's values that change like the wind? Obama is a Christian. McCain? We don't REALLY know 'cause he "doesn't like to talk about it" in the open. Obama has a family, ONE WIFE. Didn't leave his wife after she was crippled in a car accident. McCain born into privelage. Obama? Single Mom. Worked his way in life, didn't finish almost LAST in his class. #1 in his class at Harvard. He has worked and earned EVERYTHING he has. Obama is a SELF MADE MILLIONAIRE, the exact thing the CONSERVATIVES herald.

McCain has flip flopped on just about every issue. Sure Obama moved to the center, any SMART democrat does, Obama learned alot by studying the Clinton campaign in the 90's. The Bush "Tax Cuts" were reckless and 1000% irresponsible. No one in the history of the US lowers taxes in the time of war. I haven't see SQUAT for savings on MY tax bill. I make under 100,000 per year, the entire scheme is BS. I see no difference between my taxes now and my taxes when Clinton was in office. I do see HORRIFIC differences in the cost of housing, food, gas, insurance, clothing, etc. Your party has failed on every single indiactor. RIGHTLY SO, the American people will be kicking your party out of office in every single role. Come see us in 10 years when you have fresh, NEW leadership. It's going to take indpendents a while to forget what you've done to OUR COUNTRY.

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Viperlord:

I could have tolerated Giuliani as President, but your pretty much right Portland. Biden would have made a excellent President, but at least we'll get him as Vice President. I'm fairly confident that Obama will win, but I wouldn't say it's a landslide yet. If McCain wants to gain on him, he somehow has to persuade the people that trickle down economics will magically work under him when they haven't before, and he has to convince people he was never a deregulator, and convince them his outdated foreign policy will work, and convince them that diplomacy is bad, and convince them that health care is bad, lol. Not to mention stopping the steady stream of lies.

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boomshak:

@zoom:

The greatest concern about Obama is: "If he is capable of such great things, why nothing to this point?"

The Sistine Chapel was not Michelangelo's first work.

What examples do we have from Obama's past of "political bravery" of any kind? During the current economic crisis, where has shown any bravery? Where has he taken a stand? Is he a commentator or a player?

look at his past. Obama scores much higher points as a "talker" than he does as a "doer". Tell me the legislation Obama is famous for?

Past is prologue. This is why we have things like resumes and credit scores.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Let’s return, once again, to McCain’s flourishing flip-flop list.

* McCain criticized TV preacher Jerry Falwell as “an agent of intolerance” in 2002, but has since decided to cozy up to the man who said Americans “deserved” the 9/11 attacks. (Indeed, McCain had now hired Falwell’s debate coach.)

* McCain used to oppose Bush’s tax cuts for the very wealthy, but he reversed course in February.

* In 2000, McCain accused Texas businessmen Sam and Charles Wyly of being corrupt, spending “dirty money” to help finance Bush’s presidential campaign. McCain not only filed a complaint against the Wylys for allegedly violating campaign finance law, he also lashed out at them publicly. In April, McCain reached out to the Wylys for support.

* McCain supported a major campaign-finance reform measure that bore his name. In June, he abandoned his own legislation.

* McCain used to think that Grover Norquist was a crook and a corrupt shill for dictators. Then McCain got serious about running for president and began to reconcile with Norquist.

* McCain took a firm line in opposition to torture, and then caved to White House demands.

* McCain gave up on his signature policy issue, campaign-finance reform, and won’t back the same provision he sponsored just a couple of years ago.

* McCain was against presidential candidates campaigning at Bob Jones University before he was for it.

* McCain was anti-ethanol. Now he’s pro-ethanol.

* McCain was both for and against state promotion of the Confederate flag.

* And now he’s both for and against overturning Roe v. Wade.

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boomshak:

PortlandRocks:

"boomshak how can you say as an educated person that it is Obama's values that change like the wind? Obama is a Christian."

What Christian could vote in favor of letting an aborted baby born alive be left to die?

And please don't pretend he did not vote for that.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

* McCain pledged in February 2008 that he would not, under any circumstances, raise taxes. Specifically, McCain if he were a “‘read my lips’ candidate, no new taxes, no matter what?” referring to George H.W. Bush’s 1988 pledge. “No new taxes,” McCain responded. Two weeks later, McCain said, “I’m not making a ‘read my lips’ statement, in that I will not raise taxes.”

* McCain’s campaign unveiled a Social Security policy that the senator would implement if elected, which did not include a Bush-like privatization scheme. In March 2008, McCain denounced his own campaign’s policy.

* In February 2008, McCain abandoned his opposition to waterboarding.

* In November 2007, McCain reversed his previous position on a long-term presence for U.S. troops in Iraq, arguing that the “nature of the society in Iraq” and the “religious aspects” of the country make it inevitable that the United States “eventually withdraws.” Two months later, McCain reversed back, saying he’s prepared to leave U.S. troops in Iraq for 100 years.

* McCain used to champion the Law of the Sea convention, even volunteering to testify on the treaty’s behalf before a Senate committee. Now he opposes it.

* McCain was a co-sponsor of the DREAM Act, which would grant legal status to illegal immigrants’ kids who graduate from high school. Now he’s against it.

* On immigration policy in general, McCain announced in February 2008 that he would vote against his own legislation.

* In 2006, McCain sponsored legislation to require grassroots lobbying coalitions to reveal their financial donors. In 2007, after receiving “feedback” on the proposal, McCain told far-right activist groups that he opposes his own measure.

* McCain said before the war in Iraq, “We will win this conflict. We will win it easily.” Four years later, McCain said he knew all along that the war in Iraq war was “probably going to be long and hard and tough.”

* McCain said he was the “greatest critic” of Rumsfeld’s failed Iraq policy. In December 2003, McCain praised the same strategy as “a mission accomplished.” In March 2004, he said, “I’m confident we’re on the right course.” In December 2005, he said, “Overall, I think a year from now, we will have made a fair amount of progress if we stay the course.”

* McCain went from saying he would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade to saying the exact opposite.

* McCain went from saying gay marriage should be allowed, to saying gay marriage shouldn’t be allowed.

* McCain criticized TV preacher Jerry Falwell as “an agent of intolerance” in 2002, but then decided to cozy up to the man who said Americans “deserved” the 9/11 attacks.

* McCain used to oppose Bush’s tax cuts for the very wealthy, but he reversed course in February.

* On a related note, he said 2005 that he opposed the tax cuts because they were “too tilted to the wealthy.” By 2007, he denied ever having said this, and insisted he opposed the cuts because of increased government spending.

* In 2000, McCain accused Texas businessmen Sam and Charles Wyly of being corrupt, spending “dirty money” to help finance Bush’s presidential campaign. McCain not only filed a complaint against the Wylys for allegedly violating campaign finance law, he also lashed out at them publicly. In April, McCain reached out to the Wylys for support.

* McCain supported a major campaign-finance reform measure that bore his name. In June 2007, he abandoned his own legislation.

* McCain opposed a holiday to honor Martin Luther King, Jr., before he supported it.

* McCain was against presidential candidates campaigning at Bob Jones University before he was for it.

* McCain was anti-ethanol. Now he’s pro-ethanol.

* McCain was both for and against state promotion of the Confederate flag.

* McCain decided in 2000 that he didn’t want anything to do with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, believing he “would taint the image of the ‘Straight Talk Express.’” Kissinger is now the Honorary Co-Chair for his presidential campaign in New York.

Now, it’s worth noting that there are worse qualities in a presidential candidate than changing one’s mind about a policy matter or two. McCain has been in Congress for decades; he’s bound to shift now and then on various controversies.

But therein lies the point — McCain was consistent on most of these issues, right up until he started running for president, at which point he conveniently abandoned practically every position he used to hold. The problem isn’t just the incessant flip-flops; it’s the shameless pandering and hollow convictions behind the incessant flip-flops.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Which was does McCain's wind blow?

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak what Christian allows US bombs to murder millions of women and children around the world? boomshak what Christian allows their serviceman to fight in a BOGUS war leaving their families at home broken, with no father figure? boomshak what Christian doesn't teach their children about the REALITIES of sex education and how to protect themselves? If you don't like abortion, DON'T HAVE ONE.

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zoom:

@boomshak--

I think we are agreeing (shocking as that may be). As I stated above, my one concern about Obama is that he might be an "empty suit" (for the record, I voted for Hillary in the primary) which is a variation on what you just stated (all talk and no action or as they say in Texas, "All hat, no cattle.").

Nevertheless, this concern does not make Obama a "radical" or a dangerous man that will take the country over a cliff, as you suggested in the prior post. He is a very intelligent and pragmatic person, and he is a liberal who will try to implement a progressive agenda but with a serious concern that he do nothing to damage the economy. I know you do not want that to happen (the progressive agenda, I mean), but I do and thus why I support him. So as I noted, feel free to oppose on substance. Keep hoping for a "game changing" event to turn the election around. Just don't paint Obama as a radical when he really is not (no matter how many times Hannity (or you for that matter) insists that Obama is).

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I think Ameericans are finished with Republican hypocricy. People like boomshak who will claim Obama isn't a Christian because he chooses not to limit a woman's right to choose is a good example. HYPOCRITES. Yet the evangelicals will support McCain in droves, the man who left his wife, DIVORCED her ass after she was CRIPPLED in a car accident. What a Christian! Oboma is the only candidate in RECENT MEMORY I have ever heard with a resonable middle solution to abortion. He said we will NEVER agree on abortion as a country. But can't we ALL agree we need to work together to limit the # of abortions? Abortion advocates don't LIKE to see abortions. We don't watch for babys to be aborted. We'd much rather she people act responsible and WRAP in a condom or take birth control before bringing a baby into the world. Your anti-abortion stance to go along with your NO PROTECTION, just don't have sex BS is laughable. Why else have abortions NEVER decreased under Republican administrations? What a freakin' JOKE! If you hate abortion, instead of outlawing it, start educating and teaching people to practice PRECAUTION. Jesus. (no pun intended.)

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kerrchdavis:

@boom

I definitely agree with you that the candidate that wins hopefully wins in a landslide. It would be nice to have a President that goes into office with the support of a large majority of the country, something that we haven't had for a while. And, like you said, it would hold them more accountable for the positions they have run under which is certainly a good thing.

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PortlandRocks:

God I love these TWO MINUTE commericals by Obama. While McCain uses ads with Bill Clinton's words, lipstick, and celebrities, Obama talks DIRECTLY to the American people. Who's presidential?

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/samepath_ad/

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BOOMFAIL:

Browsing over his posts, I believe we have witnessed boomshak showing some logic today in admitting McCain will lose, and by a landslide. My how far we've come in 24 hours.

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KipTin:

Maybe Obama says he was first (or you inferred such), but increasing FDIC for individual deposits was NOT Obama's idea or McCain's idea. They instead agreed with that idea.

____________________

Hoosier:

Oh, Boomer...

So Obama is not a good Christian because he supports abortion rights.

Well, perhaps he should be a better Christian like John McCain. You know, the kind of Christian who cheats on his wife and then marries the (much younger and prettier) floozy he was cheating on her with.

He should be a better Christian like John McCain who supported a war based on lies with no end game thaty has resulted in the loss of 4,000+ brave Americans and who knows how many thousands of innocent Iraquis.

he should be abetter Christian like John McCain who takes a stand against theo-fascists like Falwell and Robertson, then kisses their asses when it becomes politically advantageous.

Or, he could be a better Christian like Sarah Palin, who has no problem with serial lying and gives support to a real, live "witch hunter". (I didn't realize the nation had time-travelled back to 1690's Salem).

Being a good Christian is more than just caring about "life" until birth. "Pro-Life" can be a real easy slogan, but right-wing trolls seem to forget than "life" extends for man years after birth.

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PortlandRocks:

One trend I've noticed in ALL polls is Dems have come home. Last 5 polls I've read more Dems support Obama than Republicans supporing McCain. PUMA's? Where are you?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@portland

Pumas? you mean, all 6 of them? :D

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KipTin:

Is this Obama TWO-minute commercial a television ad? If so, very costly. How is Obama's fundraising going? With the economic downturn are people going to be donating as much?

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kerrchdavis:

@kiptin

do you have a link to the ad?

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DecaturMark:

So today, after the bailout failed to pass which would have given to Treasury the money to buy bad mortgages to loosen up the credit crunch, while trying to protect the taxpayers money; McCain wants the Treasury to unilaterally, without congressional approval go forward and buy these mortgages. What is he thinking?

From CNN:
'Mr McCain also said the Treasury has “the ability to buy up a trillion dollars worth of mortgages, we should move forward on that as we are crafting the rescue bill.”'

____________________

macsuk:

Kip Tin

Thanks for reminding me! I almost forgot to send Obama my monthly $100.00 donation.

Also I am sure Obama's commercial expaining policy plans was more expensive then McCains new ad which now takes a few lines of Bill Clinton out of context. McCain is so mature..

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PortlandRocks:

God I live in Oregon and if I see one more GORDON SMITH (R) commercial pandering to Obama I am going to puke. They've even gone as far as having a commercial with an old woman saying I'M A VERY LIBERAL DEM and I am voting Gordon Smith. Compassion, broke against his party on the war. It is the most disgusting form of pandering I have ever seen. You woul think Smith was a liberal Dem! LOL Oh well... Smith down 5% in the latest poll. Oregonians aren't stupid. Proof - We didn't vote for Bush EVER.

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mirrorball:

@kerrchdavis:

Here's the Obama two-minute ad. It's pretty similar to a shorter ad I've seen running lately, possibly for Va. voters since I'm in the DC market.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Obama_Same_path.html

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PortlandRocks:

kerrchdavis the link to the new McCain ad taking Clinton out of context is linked here on pollster.com in the news section.

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macsuk:

kerrchdavis

Here is a link to the ads out today dealing with the crisis. The difference in class and grace between the two candidates is very apparent.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/09/30/politics/horserace/entry4489348.shtml

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KipTin:

From WSJ today:

"Rep. Cantor said Republicans heard concerns from community bankers about the commitment made by Treasury to protect investors in money-market funds against losses. The concern was that the action put local banks, which have limits on deposit protections, at a competitive disadvantage. Rep Cantor said raising deposit insurance limits would help widen support."

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PortlandRocks:

Wow thanks for the reminder! Last day of month. $100 to Obama.

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Viperlord:

On the subject of abortion, supporting abortion rights does not mean you are a bad Christian, it means you think the government shouldn't be interfering in the woman's choice, rather than legislating your personal beliefs. Personally I have no problem with first trimester abortions, after that I would be against it personally.

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nick-socal:

@PortlandRock, I stand corrected. And glad that I was wrong.

Also, I'll say this too -- Palin won't be removed from the ticket. She'll probably do better at the debate than most think. I also hope I can come here and say I was wrong about both of those things.

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nick-socal:

As I said before -- Who's lying? Seems we're not in anything close to an economic disaster. Sure, things aren't good, but this is what an economic disaster of Depression proportions looks like? The Dow rebounding and up 300 points? If these companies are in such dire straits to near collapse and thus laying off 3,000,000 people, why on earth would people be buying stocks?

Something is fishy. Something's not right. Looks like Congress was right to kill the bailout. Give us sometime to see what this 'alternative is much worse' scenario is that Paulson claims, but won't define.

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Viperlord:

I think she'll mostly ignore Biden and the questions, and repeat anti-Obama rhetoric.

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Batony:

@Connor

The influx of young professionals is a good for the next couple of cycles. But I think it will put Obama over the top in NC this year.

As soon as this crisis is out of the news, I think we will see the numbers for Obama come back to earth. I know his campaign would have loved for this crisis to be within two weeks of the election.

McCain is in Iowa today...internals must be encouraging.

Thursday is going to be so huge for the McCain campaign. If not just to give the campaign a shot in the arm. I notice Romney was on MTP Sunday and he is campaigning in NV on Thursday...interesting.

It is interesting that a lot black congressman voted against the bailout...more on that later.

____________________

nick-socal:

And if it's simply that investors are anticipating the bailout and therefore buying up stocks while they are 'cheap' then it looks like all Congress has to do is keep pretending like they are going to do something.

Paulson made it sound like the demise of these companies was imminent. That they were out of options and out of cash and if we didn't act immediately it would be the end of it. Well, we didn't act and they are still afloat and there doesn't seem to be massive destruction. Like I said, I don't think it's all great and good. But clearly at this point it appears Paulson ad Bush have been grossly over-exaggerating.

And if Congress really was privy to some information that we were headed straight for a Depression unless we did this bailout lock step how Paulson wants it they would have voted YES no matter what.

We're being snowed people. I'm glad Americans woke up this time and Congress listened. I'm afraid they'll do it anyway on Thursday though. Let's not let Iraq War fear mongering work again.


____________________

KipTin:

Well, I got my answer from the link above: "Barack Obama has a new, two-minute ad out featuring the candidate speaking to camera about his economic plan. The ad will run in key states and nationally, according to the campaign."

Two-minutes is pretty pricey... as well as requires the viewer to pay attention to a talking head on TV. Not very effective marketing tool. Couldn't Obama have said the same thing in 30 seconds? It kind of strengthens the negative side of Obama's wordiness. Most people will see the ad and take the opportunity to go to the kitchen to get a quick snack.

P.S. Are these two-minute ads filmed in motel rooms? This and the last one surely look like it. My attention keeps going to the paraphernalia in the background.

P.S.S. My prediction is that Obama will run into fundraising problems. Too much money spent somewhat recklessly as opposed to effectively as well as much more time needed from him to raise money as much less money is coming in then anticipated.

Sarah Palin is a fund-raising machine for the Republicans.

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Batony:

@Connor

I need to start proofreading...

The influx of young professionals is good for the next couple of cycles. But I think it will NOT put Obama over the top in NC this year.

____________________

KipTin:

If I had the extra money I would be buying stocks right now myself. I see the Dow is at this moment +250 and earlier it was +300. Will be interesting to see closing numbers.

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Batony:

@Nick-Socal

I noticed that also. Now I see why Main St doesn't trust Wall St.

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KipTin:

Yes, I was surprised to see McCain in Iowa. His campaign must see something that we do not see in the public polls.

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nick-socal:

@KipTin, The point is, where's the panic? I understand it's still below what it was at the start of trading Monday. But where's the panic on Wall Street? Where's the panic at the banks? Seems all Congress has to do is pretend like they are going to pass a bill. That's a far cry from immediate demise if nothing is done.

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cinnamonape:

boomshak: Point atken about Obama's legislative record. But look at McCain's. His major claim to fame is the McCain-Fiengold Act that is so full of loopholes (placed in there by McCain, not Feingold) that allowed for the wealthy to give hundreds of thousands of dollars to the parties (to redistribute to the campaigns), allowed vast amounts to be poured into PAC's (to be redistributed to the campaigns), generated a bevy of 527 "Swiftboat" groups that now soil our airwaves with their defecations, and gave carte-blanche to candidates to shift their "excess" campaign moneys to other races. YEAH...that worked!

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faithhopelove:

New polls today:

SUSA OH ~ McCain 49, Obama 48
See:
http://www.whiotv.com/politics/17588559/detail.html

ARG NV ~ McCain 49, Obama 47
ARG NC ~ McCain 49, Obama 46
ARG VA ~ McCain 49, Obama 46
See:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

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nick-socal:

@faithhopelove, Thanks for the info. My question is though, if Obama is up by so much in the national polls, why is it not showing up in the state polls? The state polls would suggest a much tighter race. Are the national polls really over sampling IL, CA, NY, and TX that much?

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Viperlord:

I could buy the NV and NC ones, but no way McCain's that far ahead in VA.

From a proud Virginian.

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cinnamonape:

PUMA's? I think Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, who married the octagenarian scion of the British Rothschild banking empire while she was in her 40's still is a McCain supporter (after presumably supporting Hillary, although at the time Lord Rothschild and his brothers were doing surrepticious fundraisers for McCain in London).

Oh...and Paris Hilton still supports him.

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kerrchdavis:

Diageo Hotline has Obama up 47-41, a 1 pt increase.

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riverrun:

Obama +3% ahead in Florida.

"Benefiting from increased voter concern over the economy and the declining popularity of Sarah Palin, Barack Obama has taken a 49-46 lead over John McCain in Florida."

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pppmain.asp?@spdT=B6B42829136845A69B19

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Batony:

Why would ABC release a poll that states 88% believe the economy will worsen? Plus when was the last time ABC News Washington post has had an accurate poll?

Why isn't this site updating polls anymore?

Like I said, this race is so far from over, it's not even funny. Thursday is going to be so huge.

____________________

KipTin:

The RNC jumped on this as they should: Yesterday (9/29) Obama stated:

“After this immediate problem, we’ve got the long-term fundamentals that will really make sure this economy grows."
---------

This should play well against the Obama campaign taking the following McCain words out of context:

"..."the fundamentals of our economy are strong..."
-------

Sure the Obama comments were also taken out of context, but why not take advantage of the same as Obama?

____________________

Justin:

Oversampling Texas helps Obama in the national polls, Nick? Good god, man, you are the least knowledgeable pretend Obama supporter one could imagine.

ARG has been terrible.

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kerrchdavis:

So we have ARG showing leads for McCain in places like Nevada and Virginia but SUSA shows Ohio tied and PPP has a lead for Obama in Florida?

What gives?

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boomshak:

ABC Poll says 2:1 Americans "blame" Republicans for failure of the bailout bill. But by 2:1, Americans OPPOSE the bailout bill.

So doesn't this poll mean that Republicans are clear winners here as they are responsible for killing a bill American's DON'T want?

How can Americans overwhlemingly OPPOSE a bill and then PUNISH the party that KILLED it? Am I missing something?

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kerrchdavis:

Does anyone have a link to Nate's table showing the general lean of pollsters to one side or the other?

____________________

nick-socal:

@Justin, it was a typo and lighten up. My question still stands. How can the national polls not show a tight race but some state polls can? That's my question.

Signed,
The fake Obama supporter with an Obama for President yard sign planted in the middle of his front lawn.

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nick-socal:

@boomshak, good question.

@Batony, I agree, why isn't this site doing updates anymore? And why is their EV map been the same for days and days now? Are we to surmise this site is basically meaningless at this point?

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boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

"So we have ARG showing leads for McCain in places like Nevada and Virginia but SUSA shows Ohio tied and PPP has a lead for Obama in Florida?

What gives?"

It's a close race with a lot of confusing cross-currents.

As you can see from McCain's 15 point surge after he chose Palin, America really really WANTS to vote for McCain. Unfortunately, he isn't giving them a good reason yet, so they are choosing "the new guy" by default.

Obama isn't winning this race, McCain is losing it.

Thursday will be large. No matter how the debate goes, you can rest assured the MSM will have all of thier biased polls and "independent (haha)" focus groups primed and ready to say Biden won. I can hear it now:

"Hi, I'm Suzie Independent. The election is a month a way and I still have no idea who I will vote for. I felt Sarah palin seemed like she just isn't ready to be President if the need arose. Joe Biden seems like he has the experience to do the job on day one..." Blah, blah, blah...

Still, if Sarah kicks ass and gets the white women's vote back, this thing could still change.

Also, expect Israel to attack Iran even though Bush didn't "approve" it.

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cinnamonape:

Kiptin:LOL! I don't think that he's going to take the advice of someone who is so intent on getting the other guy elected.

I think that Obama knows that he needs to buy the longer ads to dispell the fears that he is some "radical". A longer ad allows him to explain the effects of the financial crisis in terms that most Americans see in their day-to-day lives, and his plans. That avoids the cliches and 'talking points' taht a 30 second spot appeals to. Those sorts of ads appeal to emotion, not reason.

I believe that there is a real "Huck Finn Effect" about to occur (read the book if you haven't...and read it from the perspective of Jim as a strategist rather than a bufoon). There are many people that still carry the historical traditions of racism out there. The playing-field, for these folks is not even. They exhibit attitudes about minorities that are based upon stereotypes and fear. But they are willing to give consideration to blacks if they demonstrably exhibit excellence and creative ideas. Colin Powell opened the door to this on the National stage for many people.

That's why Obama has decided to go ahead with these longer ads. He wants to speak with the citizens of these decisive states as Adults. It's well worth the money.

____________________

macsuk:

There is a reason ARG is not listed by RCP or anyone else. It is a right wing propaganda tool that should only be used in the bottom of a litter box.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

This site is a chat site now. If you want QUICK polling updates use realclearpolitics.com and click on LATEST polls. They are quick.

____________________

boomshak:

@nick-socal:

It's a weird-ass year.

I think more than anything the American People are confused. We don't want to bail out these greedy Wall Streeters in their million dollar condos, but then again if we don't, we are all f*cked.

It's kind of like paying ransom to free your daughter from the kidnappers. You hate paying the kidnappers, but you would hate even more having your daughter killed by them.

The one positive in all this is that we may actually make money on this deal.

____________________

Batony:

Gallup:

Obama 52%
Mcain 41%

____________________

boomshak:

I don't like Obama's politics and I don't trust him to govern like the moderate he pretends to be, but his ads do kick ass and McCain's suck.

I find this disappointing to say the least.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@batony

Well, if thats true, then there goes Boomshaks theory that gallup swung 6 points to McCain yesterday.

That or Obama polled +20 last night which obviously did not happen.

____________________

Batony:

Scratch that Gallup Poll..sorry.

Realpolitics is slow today and they never post ARG numbers. This site use to do that...but now they suck.

____________________

KipTin:

Look at the sampling errors and you will find that Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida are all statistically tied... ergo toss-up states. Until the numbers get outside the MOE, one should not get too excited. Remember these are only statistical samples within 95% probability of being within the margin of error.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow there is a CHANGE comin'! WOW. I'm shocked. Nick So-Cal? Comments?:)

____________________

mirrorball:

"I think more than anything the American People are confused. We don't want to bail out these greedy Wall Streeters in their million dollar condos, but then again if we don't, we are all f*cked."

Couldn't agree more. I was just talking to a co-worker who said he visited some family in southern Virginia this weekend, and they seemed split just along those lines. Some didn't like the idea of "bailing out the fat cats," but when someone else mentioned everyone had a 401K, they were like "oh, well what do we do?"

It really has been one of more unusual election years in recent memory.

____________________

zotz:

cinnamonape-
It's a great strategy! I've never heard of the "Huck Finn effect" before now. Apparently it also worked in the debate. Of course the Obama campaign has been saying all along that the more people hear from Obama the more they like him. Another thing I didn't fully appreciate is that the more people hear from McCain the more they don't like him.

Did you hear about McCain's latest gaffe? He said that Hugo Chavez was from the Middle East! The list of his gaffes is getting pretty long.

____________________

Batony:

Wait I though ARG was a Democratic Poll and that's why Realclearpolitics doesn't list them. B/C as someone on here stated Realclearpolitics is a right wing tool. Will you guys make up your mind??

____________________

KipTin:

I think Obama's ads are very uncool/lame. I expect more from the younger guy who has the youth and minority vote who are tuned into pop culture.

____________________

boomshak:

@Batony:

That did seem extreme, even for Gallup.

____________________

McShame:

This is the same ARG poll that had Obama up by ONLY 6 in Illinois a few weeks ago.

____________________

thoughtful:

I thought i'd put my 2 cents in.

Obama is a liberal pragmatist. He is no radical. He as close to a centrist as you can get, as he wants to find consensus, in that search for common ground he is an idealist.

He is a natural leader. Rather or not he has the guile and single mindedness that it takes you wont know until he is in office.

Repubs really have little to fear as he can only be a huge improvement on Bush.

As those of you who have visited this site fort some time know I have been consistent in the assertion that McCain was unelectable because of what he is (even when he was high in the polls). Boomshak more or less gave further vent to that from his perspective today.

Where is my friend Stillow like to get her take?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Why does ARG have such a low rating by Nate? He weights them very low.

____________________

riverrun:

Even in Georgia, where Obama scaled back his campaign, McCain leads by only 8%: and the senate race is tight.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b1b8098c-b5fc-4f44-8be3-0d54f3e03476

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Gallup O-49 M-43

____________________

Dana Adini:

intrade

Obama 353 EV
McCain 185 EV

NC got flipped blue today. Rasmussen Markets have the same count

____________________

Pat:

PPP: Obama takes the lead in Florida - 49 to 46

____________________

Batony:

Gallup:

Obama: 49%
McCain: 43%

____________________

Tyler:

@Batony

ARG is not a Democratic pollster or a Republican pollster, they are a Bad pollster.

____________________

boomshak:

Gallup Daily: Obama Holds 6-Point Lead

Two weeks since McCain’s had any advantage in voter preferences

September 30, 2008

Barack Obama leads John McCain, 49% to 43%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Saturday through Monday. This reflects surveys conducted entirely after Friday night’s presidential debate and throughout the intense series of developments on Capitol Hill.

Hmmm, a bit surprising.

____________________

Justin:

Three of the four trackers now have Obama +6. Oddly, Rasmussen looks the most favorable of the three for Obama as he is at 51%.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

The trackers are alligned today!

Gallup Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 2729 RV 49 43 Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 901 RV 47 41 Obama +6

____________________

kerrchdavis:

So it looks like, for now, the race has stabilized to about a 6 point Obama lead nationally. The exception to this is, of course, the R2k poll which has a much larger Obama lead as a result of their weightings. I agree that R2K does seem to be oversampling democrats although, given the unique dynamics of this election, enormous turnout on the part of democrats plus the best ground game ever could skew the election day demographics in favor of their internals.

However, I'll reserve judgment on that till after election day. Right now, its Obama +6.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Remember folks... the poll average for Bush was +2 in 2004. Obama holds +6 heading into election day I'd be pretty happy.

____________________

Batony:

Unfortunately for Obama and the Dems...they now have to figure how to ride this crisis for the next 5 weeks.

The good thing for McCain is that any slip in the polls for Obama is momentum for McCain. I promise this is the last time I will say this. Thursday will be huge. I'm excited.

____________________

KipTin:

Source please for "McCain's latest gaffe." McCain very well knows who Chavez is.

But remember it was Obama who blamed G.W. Bush for the election of Chavez, even though Chavez was first elected in 1998 during the Clinton administration. (And to be clear, it was the majority of the people who elected Chavez... as a legal populist revolt.)

____________________

boomshak:

After polling +8 two days in a row, this leads one to believe that Obama actually had kind of a bad day yesterday on Gallup.

**Does anyone else ever feel like maybe Gallup is just f*cking with us by moving his poll up and down like he does? Maybe he just keeps changing the party weightings based upon perceived momentum?

Regardless, despite the HUGE help Obama has gotten from the economy, he seems to be topped out at about +4 to +6 on a daily basis.

Let's say we get a bailout deal done Thursday and Palin kicks ass Thursday night?

Maybe just maybe McCain still has a shot here.

____________________

Justin:
____________________

Tyler:

Note that the Rasmussen, Diageo/Hotline and Gallup trackers all show exactly the same O+6 margin today.

DKos/R2K shows O+10, and I'm sure Battleground/GW will show M+200 or something but it's interesting to see the three "middle ground" trackers in such close agreement.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

6 up with 30 days left is pretty darn good. And someone's excited for Thursday? LOL Palin has a lack of VOCABULARY. You can't TRAIN for that. She sounds unintelligent on the issues when she talks. It's going to be ugly.

____________________

faithhopelove:

ARG's NV poll is here:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/NV08.html

This poll does show movement in Obama's direction since ARG's last NV poll, albeit only slight movement (+1 point).

The internals of this poll appear realistic (in terms of party breakdown, male/female breakdown, and age breakdown). The poll's only obvious flaw is that it does not name 3rd-party candidates; with its Libertarian streak, NV is one of a handful of states in which Bob Barr may do well, hurting McCain. The 2% McCain advantage results from the fact that he has solifidified Republican support in NV--91% to 5%. Obama does not fare as well with NV Democrats, winning 85% of them and losing 13% of them. Kerry won 9 out of 10 Democrats in 2004. See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/NV/P/00/epolls.0.html

If Obama matches Kerry's performance among Democrats, then Obama will probably win NV. Some additional Democrats may come home to him before election day simply because of party loyalty. With his base solidified, McCain has less room for growth.

NV polls have over-estimated Republican support there in the past. In 2004, polls on average gave Bush a lead in NV of over 6 points; he won the state by only 3 points. Hispanic voters may be less inclined to respond to pollsters, as questions are usually asked in English.

Obama visits NV today.

____________________

boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

The trackers are alligned today!

Gallup Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 2729 RV 49 43 Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 901 RV 47 41 Obama +6

What is surprising is that Obama seems to have plateaued here despite having an environment that 100% favors him and a MSM that is 100% on his side.

One would expect a MUCH bigger lead here. One must them ask themselves, why so low?

Of course the news media must ask themselves - "Hey the bailout deal fell through and Obama's numbers dropped on Gallup" What does that mean?

____________________

boomshak:

Ask yourselves. What would this race look like if Mccain got the MSM treatment Obama gets?

____________________

Batony:

@Portland Rocks

I'm not the only one who is excited. If she goes over a cliff on Thursday, so be it...I can still be excited.

6 point lead in the midst of a crisis that the party in power is blamed for is not that great.

Like I stated earlier, Obama is going to have to figure out how to ride this for 5 weeks. John McCain has too "weapons" left in his arsenal.

____________________

KipTin:

Obama dropped two points in Gallup Daily (registered voters). Is this now trending down? Next few days will reveal.

____________________

boomshak:

REGARDING GALLUP:

Yes, Gallup is showing +6, but they must have polled only about +3 or +4 yesterday to go from two days +8 to +6.

I find all of these cross-current quite confusing.

I was FULLY expecting Gallup to go +9 today.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak always trying to find the SILVER lining. Why is the Senator of 26 years down 6 points to the unknown? LOL You are funny.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@kiptin

Well, considering Rasmussen, R2K and Hotline are trending UP for Obama I think you're seeing a race stabilizing at about +6.

____________________

macsuk:

boomshak

What is a bit surprising about Obama being up by 6% today. The past couple of reports dropped off two days of Obama out polling McCain by double figures, and 2 of the 3 days of polling on this report were over the weekend. Young Dems and Ind, and many struggeling Dems / Ind are working on the weekend.

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

Seriously, what's up with the Republican "Obama should be winning by more, therefore he's losing" rationalization? It's not like McCain is going to suddenly become president if Obama only gets 273 EVs on election day.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Um idiots... 2 days ago Gallop "Trended down" for Obama from 6 to 5..then 8..now 6. You guys are hilarious. Almost every single one of your predictions have come false.

____________________

boomshak:

@PortlandRocks:

boomshak always trying to find the SILVER lining. Why is the Senator of 26 years down 6 points to the unknown? LOL You are funny.

You are trying to be funny right? Obama an "unknown"? Obama gets a public BJ from the press 24/7 and he has been running for 2 years. That is over 700 public BJ's.

I think America knows Obama.

Actually, with an MOE of only about 3, Obama lead here is really around +3. If Palin gets the white women back Thursday night, this could be a race again.

DON'T FORGET:
Israel will bomb Iran before Nov 4. Count on it.

____________________

Justin:

Boomshak, you still don't understand how three day polling works. Today's drop is as much a result of the 26th dropping off as it is a result of yesterday's polling. All we know is that for Obama the 26th was a better day than the 29th. There is no evidence that Obama polled only +3 or 4 yesterday.

____________________

jamesugw:

Don't want to ruin Boom's day but....GWU/battleground has Obama +2

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Batony McCain's "weapans" have worked so WELL. LOL He's TRAILED in this race the ENTIRE TIME..The ENTIRE TIME except for a 5 day period.

____________________

zotz:
____________________

Justin:
____________________

boomshak:

@Justin:

Ok, you are the expert on 3-day polling. You tell me what Obama has polled the last 3 days to go +8, +8, +6. I'll be waiting.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Gallup always tightens towards McSame on Weekend polling, before widening again later in the week for a larger Obama lead. Just like the sun rising and setting, week after week they show the same. Nothing to show a switch towards McSame.

8 point lead with MOE :)
Research2000 shows 10 point Obama lead.
Have a nice day everyone.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

With their ridiculously scewed #'s, Obama up 2 is not a good sign from GWU/BattleGround for McCain. LOL Wow.

____________________

AlanSnipes:

One state that I think in particular is difficult to poll this year is Nevada. Kerry only lost it by 3 ponts in 2004. There has been a HUGE increase in population throught this decade that I believe makes it hard to poll. The newer residents of the state tend to be democrats. Therefore, this is one state that if it stays close in polling even with a slight McCain lead, will go to Obama.
This is the only state that shows a slight McCain lead at this time that I believe will be a Obama win on election day.

____________________

boomshak:

@jamesugw:
Don't want to ruin Boom's day but....GWU/battleground has Obama +2

That doesn't ruin my day. I know Obama is ahead. They may have also ficed their weighting was wrong before.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

gw battleground has O-48 M-46

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boom

"Actually, with an MOE of only about 3, Obama lead here is really around +3. If Palin gets the white women back Thursday night, this could be a race again."

Or +9 Boom. Lets be fair.

____________________

KipTin:

The only "idiots" are the ones who have to call other posters "idiots." Quit the name-calling. It does not help you make your point, which is not based on the facts.

Obama and McCain were tied in Gallup six days ago and Obama has gained since until today. Obama lead as follows: Tied, +3, +5, +8, +8, +6.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110845/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-6Point-Lead.aspx

____________________

boomshak:

BTW, WTF is wrong with this site? They aren't posting any of the latest polls for us to blog about :(

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Obama's on trouble!:) LOL

RCP Average 09/21 - 09/29 -- 48.1 43.0 Obama +5.1
Gallup Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 2729 RV 49 43 Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 901 RV 47 41 Obama +6
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/24 - 09/29 800 LV 48 46 Obama +2
CBS News/NY Times 09/21 - 09/24 LV 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 900 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 09/22 - 09/23 689 LV 49 44 Obama +5

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:
@boom

"Actually, with an MOE of only about 3, Obama lead here is really around +3. If Palin gets the white women back Thursday night, this could be a race again."

Or +9 Boom. Lets be fair.

Huh? +9?

____________________

Batony:

@Boom

Your point is valid. I know what is behind the reporting for Obama. No one wants to be seen as racist, and it's really sad.

I sometimes wonder if white people are just bored with white people. They way Hillary was treated, the way McCain and Palin have been treated has been somewhat surreal.

That's why I am really anxious to see what really happens on election day.

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:
@boom

"Actually, with an MOE of only about 3, Obama lead here is really around +3. If Palin gets the white women back Thursday night, this could be a race again."

Or +9 Boom. Lets be fair.

Huh? +9?

Oops, lol, I get it, duh, heheh.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I love how Boom trys to find the silver lining each and every day with BIG predictions. Obama was supposed to be down last week. Now he'll be down this SUNDAY ROFL. You guys are really getting desperate. It's quite fun to watch as your party falls into the sunset. Buh bye GOP.

RCP Average 09/21 - 09/29 -- 48.1 43.0 Obama +5.1
Gallup Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 2729 RV 49 43 Obama +6
Rasmussen Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/27 - 09/29 901 RV 47 41 Obama +6
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/24 - 09/29 800 LV 48 46 Obama +2
CBS News/NY Times 09/21 - 09/24 LV 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 900 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 09/22 - 09/23 689 LV 49 44 Obama +5

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boom

:)

____________________

boomshak:

@Batony:

No, actually I think the MSM really likes Obama because they think he is cool and they think Conservatives are hicks and nerds.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

The idea that Palin will SUDDENLY win women back with 1 debate performance is laughable. You guys forget, her quick rise to fame has already faded and opinions have already been formed by her lack of knowledge and interview performances. No amount of preperation will help the soccer Mom with a poor vocabulary. The way she even talks makes people hear UNPREPARED, not knowledgeable on the issues.

____________________

marctx:

Its going to take more than a good debate performance by Gov. Palin and McCain AND the bailout being passed for McCain to win.

He will need a miracle, a war, or another major Obama discovery like Rev. Wright, "whitey" tape, or more elitist "bitter" comments.

The republicans may have wasted all their good gotcha stuff already. They may need to put a "best of" loop to play over and over.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Batony no one wants to be "Seen" as racist. So telling a pollster PRIVATELY that you vote McCain would be racist? LOL This argument is so hilarious and really shows a lack of education. Why wouldn't you jut say IM FOR MCCAIN even if you are a racist. Saying you are FOR McCain doesn't make you a racist. It just makes you a fool.

____________________

KipTin:

OK... thanks for the Ben Smith link. I saw that McCain event this morning and I missed that because I was paying attention to the energy message. It was definitely a misspeak similar to Obama calling McCain "Tom" during the debate. McCain knows who Chavez is and which nation he leads and where Venezuela is located. Obama knows that McCain's first name is "John" and not "Tom."

Latest data from U.S. Energy Information Service: Top foreign oil suppliers to U.S.-- Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

marctx for the 1st time ever..I officially agree with your last post except on 1 issue. If we have a terrorist attack, 2nd time on Republican watch, weren't they the party that "protects" us?

____________________

Pat:

Why Obama's Gallup number dropped?

If you look at Gallup every week for the past few months, most weeks Obama reaches his lowest polling number for the week on Wednesday. This week is no exception. Watch his numbers rise again as we approach the weekend unless Biden gives a poor debate performance.

____________________

boomshak:

McCain should have a good day on gallup tomorrow with th Dow +350 today and word that some deal will be forthcoming.

Tomorrow's Prediction:
Gallup: O+4
Rasmussen: O+5
Hotline: O+5

____________________

zoom:

@james

Finally, even GWU's incredibly flawed methodology has Obama ahead. Go to fivethirtyeight.com (article named "What's Wrong With the Battleground Poll?") for an analysis of the big problem in their sampling which WAY understates the percentage of 18-29 voters, as well as overstating the number of 65+ voters. As Boomshak would say, "FAIL."

Unless this pollster changes its methodology and starts doing something about this unreasonable age weighting (or more likely the absense of any age weighting necessary to make the polling results match the expected demographics of the actual voters), it will continue to get the results wrong by meaningfully overstating McCain's support.

It is just very enlightening that even with this horrible polling technique that gives McCain the best possible demographic break-down, the poll now gives Obama +2.

____________________

Justin:

Boomshak, I'm not an expert, but anyone should be able to understand that the latest result of a three day poll does not tell us yesterday's result. I'll give you an example that makes it easy to understand.

Day 1: 56
Day 2: 50
Day 3: 50 / 3-day average = 156/3 = 52
Day 4: 53 / 3-day average = 153/3 = 51

On day 4 the candidate polled better than the previous two days, yet is 3-day average dropped a point.

____________________

boomshak:

@zoom:

They likely changed their sample, hence today's move.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow Obama up 8% amongst independents in FL. Obama campaigning on CNN now in Reno. They are so smart with the electorate. If obama carries the Reno area, he carries NV hands down.

____________________

boomshak:

@Justin:

Well how the hell can you tell me I "don't understand how these polls work" and my +4 was wrong when you have NO IDEA what the numbers were?

____________________

KipTin:

Gallup addressed the "day of the week" myth and it does not hold true. Your theory is proven false by the week Sept. 14 - Sept. 21.

Why do Obama's numbers drop... because he gets a bounce from an event and then it slowly comes back down.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Justin

Boom knows how it works. He's just really, really biased.

____________________

chesirecat47:

@jamesugw

Well James, if you're right, then that would seem to be more of a catching up to the national trend than a drastic shift towards Barack. On the whole, it looks like there won't be any sort of landslide for Obama. However, it's hard to see him losing this 4-6 point lead without the disclosure of any particularly damning revelations in the next month (and I tend to think the Clintons would of used anything that actually existed).

If this holds, I think McCain wins these battlegrounds: OH,FL,NV,NC,VA

while Obama takes: CO,IA,MI,PA,WI,MN,NM

That'd leave NH as the electoral decider, which leans ever so slightly to McCain, IMO.

This is an aside, but as a rural North Carolinian, I'd say Obama has a much better chance in NC than we're giving him credit for (though I still think it leans McCain.) The organization of the campaign in the Piedmont area is outstanding, but rural areas have not been abandoned and we're starting to see old Democrats come back. This is going to cut into large #s that have been posted by Republicans in rural Appalachia. Whether it is enough, remains to be seen.

____________________

zoom:

@boomshak

We have no idea if they changed their sampling assumptions. As you would say--"Why don't they release all the internals? Without these internals, we have no idea what they are doing. FAIL."

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boom

"Well how the hell can you tell me I "don't understand how these polls work" and my +4 was wrong when you have NO IDEA what the numbers were?"

Because you are assuming Obama's numbers were trending down yesterday when there isn't really any way to be sure.

____________________

Batony:

@Portland Rocks

I'm not even going to respond to you questioning my education. I'm not on here for that. Just on here to discuss the election of 2008. I'm not a crazed Obama or McCain fan, so you want see me calling other people names.

However, when I mentioned not wanting to seem racist, I was referring to the media.

Portland Rocks you are obviously partisan hack, I am not so don't address me and I will ignore you. I hope to God I wasn't like you before I moved to this city to see that both parties are full of it.

____________________

nick-socal:

@AlanSnipes, Nevada will go Obama this year. There's been a huge movement to Democrats in the Reno area the last few years. Reno area is the reason Nevada stayed Red the last election. Between Clark County and Reno, Obama wins Nevada.

@Boomshak, Huh? With MOE Obama could either be +3 or +9. Either way that doesn't spell a McCain victory at this point.

____________________

nick-socal:

Does PortlandRocks = NW Patrick?

____________________

Pat:

@boomshak:

If Obama is only +4 on Gallup tomorrow, it does not mean much since historically Obama polls very low on Wednesdays Gallup poll. Last wednesday he was tied with McCain which was the only day these two were tied.

____________________

Justin:

Lesson learned. One can not dumb things down enough to meet Boomshak's level of comprehension.

____________________

zoom:

@chesirecat

A statistical analysis does not support your conclusions. If Obama wins the popular vote by 4-6 points, as you seem to acknowledge is likely, it will not come down to one state. Statistically, it is virtually impossible to win the popular vote by that margin and not win the electoral college fairly comfortably. While one can imagine a theoretical possibility (where Obama wins really big in blue states and loses by a little in all the red states), voting patterns just do not generally work that way.

Look at fivethirtyeight.com; election-projection.net and election.princeton.edu. These cites do statistical analysis showing the likelihood of Obama winnings. Only fivethirtyeight.com takes national polls into account--the other 2 only use state polls. All three cites have Obama at an 80%+ likelihood to win (election.princeton.edu actually has it at about a 99% likelihood of an Obama victory).

Statistically, think about it this way. Assume Obama has 260 electoral votes totally nailed down. Assume McCain has 200 electoral votes totally nailed down. Assume that McCain is favored in ALL of the remaining states (78 electoral votes)--but only by about a 60% likelihood in each of these states. Obama will get about another 30 (approx. 40% of 78) electoral votes and McCain will get about 48 electoral votes. So looking at the states individually, it looks like McCain would get all 78 electoral votes up for grabs(because he has a 60% chance in each), but over all, he only gets 48 electoral votes, and Obama wins with an aggregate total of 290 electoral votes.

That is really the situation now. The states you listed as Obama states are really pretty firm for Obama. McCain only has a slight edge (assuming you are correct about his position in those states) in his states, and he has to win all of them. At a 4-6 point national advantage for Obama, that is just highly unlikley to happen.

In poker terms, McCain would have to "run the table" or "draw to an inside stright" to win the election. While possible, not very likely.

So just looking at who you think is likely to win each state individually can be very misleading. While we may not know for sure which of the "McCain states" you listed will go for Obama, statistically, if he maintains his national lead, it is overwhelmingly likely he will win at least one or two of them.

____________________

Tyler:

...and with today's nationals, the Pollster.com national map goes dark blue.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I feel good! LALALALALA. Can't wait for the debate. It's going to be a good comedy.

____________________

marctx:

PortlandRocks:

"weren't they the party that "protects" us?"

it's common "perception" like:

democrats are better on the economy

republicans favor the rich, democrats the poor

doesn't need to be explained, it just happens because people believe it. that is THE ONLY reason Obama is this far ahead right now.

economic crisis, and according to Bill Clinton Obama is the only remaining democrat so he has to support him...hahaha

Bill even says the crisis is the democrats fault...Jeez why doesn't the media agree with Bill?

Also, why is Biden getting a pass on his sniper fire comments???? Where's the daily Jack Caferty sniper fire jokes, huh?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow Zoom. Thanks for your insite. You are 1000% correct. And nick-socal. NW Patrick? I'm confused what you are asking me.

____________________

zoom:

MARGIN OF ERROR ISSUE

One thing that seems to be repeatedly stated on this board is that if Obama is up by +6 with a 3 pt. MOE, then it could be Obama +3 to Obama +9. That conclusion is INCORRECT.

MOE speakes to EACH of the percentages stated for each candidate. So if a polls is Obama 50--McCain 44, then it could be Obama 47--McCain 47 (at one extreme) or Obama 53--McCain 41 (at the other extreme). So really it could be from tied to Obama +12.

You must DOUBLE the MOE if you apply it to the differential between the candidates to see the possible extremes at the edge of the MOE.

One other point, if 4 polls show the same basic result, even if each has a MOE of 3 pts., chances are that the "poll of polls" has a lower MOE because it has a larger total sample size of people.

____________________

nick-socal:

@Tyler, Pollster hasn't updated that map in a long time.

____________________

chesirecat47:

@zoom

Thanks for the breakdown, which I'm not ignoring. I suppose I'm just being cautiously pessimistic about the results. 15 months into this, I'm not sure if I can fully accept that Barack is legitimately ahead as I don't want to count those chickens before they're hatched. You are right that Obama has far more room for error than McCain. It just ain't over quite yet, as some are proclaiming here.

____________________

Andy:

I am really surprised to see Mccain campaign in Iowa. Almost every poll in last two weeks have given Obama significant lead in IA. The last Fox\RAs poll has Obama up by +8, there are some polls which showed double digit leads for Obama. Why is he campaigning there, when its so close in OH, VA, FL & NC and they are states which he just can't afford to loose. Is this another case of his campaign screwing up or his internal polls show something which no other polls show. I don't think in the last 6 months Mccain has lead in a single poll in IA.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

MarcTX... Actually Dems being better on the economy is statistical fact. Let me let Mr Forbes the Republican prove it for you.

Postwar Presidencies Ranked By Six Measures Of Economic Performance:

#1 Clinton #2 Johnson #3 Kennedy

http://www.forbes.com/2004/07/20/cx_da_0720presidents.html


____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Its 2 am in the morning here and I could have done with some of your assistance.

I have been running a series of never again happy mornings for John McCain.

First thing Candidate gets in the morning is what the Campaign is going to lead with in the new cycle, the second is specific issues being churned by previous days pollings and how to respond.

McCain is in it every day and getting deeper and deeper in it. It can't be helpful being in a pretty broken up 72 year old's body and against an opponent that he has contempt for and appears to be more like Tiger Woods every day!

The last Senator from Arizona got buried by a landslide and so will this one.

Palin has to insignificance. People vote for top of the ticket and YES Stillow she breaks the "Do No Harm" rule.

Never Glad Mornings Again for John McCain.

____________________

Tyler:

@zoom

While you are correct about doubling the MOE, you must also remember that the probability distribution around the reported result is a bell curve, not flat.

In other words, the further away a particular hypothetical is from the reported result, the less likely it is to represent reality. The MOE represents the range around a particular reported number that is 95% likely to contain reality, but the it is still much more likely that reality is close to the reported result than that it is out on the edge of the MOE.

For example in a 50-44 poll with a MOE of 3, yes a hypothetical 47-47 is within the margin margin of error, but it is most definitely not true to say that a 47-47 reality is equally as likely as a 50-44 reality. The 50-44 reality is _much_ more likely.

The MOE is really just an arbitrary cutoff between negligible and non-negligible probabilities. A the probability of a hypothetical result right at the edge of the MOE representing reality is considered non-negligible, but only barely so.

____________________

zoom:

@portlandrocks

You're welcome. Understanding statistics is critical to understand the polls. fivethirtyeight.com and eduction.princeton.edu are great sites for getting better information on how to understand the statistical underpinnings of these polls (as well as this site).

@chesirecat

As a lifelong Democrat, I share your concern. The ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory seems unlimited. Five weeks is a lifetime in elections, so I admit that the dynamics of the election could change and McCain could win. HOWEVER, right now the polls seems to have Obama at a 4-6 point advantage (maybe higher if the cell phone effect is real--which could add another 1-3 points). If on Nov. 3 the polls are still at that level, Obama will win the election on Nov. 4. It is a virtual statisical imperative.

____________________

Batony:

@Andy

From what I understand people on the ground in Iowa or saying it's a lot closer than the polls would indicate.

____________________

zoom:

@tyler

I agree with you 100%. I was just trying to explain the way to read the MOE accurately.

____________________

ticketstub:

Re: VP debate

Does anyone else think this thing will be a non-starter? We know that Biden really knows his foreign policy and personally, I think Palin is smarter than she's come across. But we also know that they both are gaffe-meisters (I'm going to work on trademarking that term. Then I'll be rich!)

I think that it's very likely that that debate ends up being very boring and not a "game changer" just because they both, right now as I type this, are being HEAVILY coached on how to not mess up. It seems to me that the most likely scenario is that they both play it safe for fear of a major gaffe, and the debate is a non-event.

Tie that the the fact that I certainly can't think of a VP debate that had any effect on the election ever (Bentsen smacking down Quayle, anyone?), and I think there will be a lot of people going "meh" on Friday morning.

____________________

macsuk:

Intrade Update:

Pres Obama 64.0
Pres McCain 35.9
Withdrawl Palin 10.0

OUCH!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Kiptin: "Look at the sampling errors and you will find that Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida are all statistically tied... ergo toss-up states. Until the numbers get outside the MOE, one should not get too excited. Remember these are only statistical samples within 95% probability of being within the margin of error."

The problem is that when numbers are approaching the margins of the MOE they become increasing UNLIKELY to be statistical aberrations. The 95% standard is an arbitrary one. It means that 19/20 polls taken at random, with the same methodology would fall within that range. Or conversely it's the likelihood (1/20) of the poll being beyond the actual numbers that fall just beyond that MOE range.

One could use a different standard, a 90% MOE (the likelihood that the poll is 1/10 times likely to fall outside of a narrower MOE), etc.

Polls do not suddenly become "good" once the results show a greater difference than the MOE. That shows a demonstrable lack of understanding of statistics.

One more point. Multiple surveys showing the same differential or even the same "leader" in a set of polls would add to the probability that the polls are showing a real phenomenon. It's a multiplicative function.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Anyone else see a trand here in FL?

PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 941 LV 46 49 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 47 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 48 45 McCain +3

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Boom: Actually, with an MOE of only about 3, Obama lead here is really around +3. If Palin gets the white women back Thursday night, this could be a race again."

Kercchdavis: "Or +9 Boom. Lets be fair."

"Boom:? +9?"

Precisely. The probability of a single poll that shows a 6 point lead with a MOE of 3, would mean that it is just as likely that the actual numbers are a 9 point lead, as it is a 3 point lead (1/20). With multiple polls showing the same results, the probability increases that the 6 point lead is likely accurate. This is because each poll would have a 1/20 chance of being above the MOE, but having five or six of them would be a massive statistical aberration. Multiplicative probability would suggest that five polls showing a similar 6 point differential and actually being a 3 point differential...would be 1/20^5 or (1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20).

____________________

zotz:

On the VP debate I think Palin is going to be very aggressive in attacking Obama and Biden. The Reps know that the best way to protect Palin is to keep Biden on the defensive as much as possible. We saw a hint of this when she criticized Biden for his clean coal position. This "go soft on her" stuff is nonsense. Biden will have to be aggressive with her. I think (or I hope) he has learned not to call her "goodlooking" or anything else condescending. The worst mistake the Dems could make is to underestimate her.

____________________

thoughtful:

/blogs/morning_status_update_for_930.html

Guys, Mark has done a very useful Blog analysis on the trend this morning.

____________________

nick-socal:

@zotz. I agree 100% about the VP debate.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

what a slow day !!!

____________________

boomshak:

Guys,

Very close race, advantage to Obama with 24/7 PERFECT MSM coverage.

Let me ask you a question. In the last 2 weeks, when was the last time anyone here saw ANYTHING negative in the MSM about Obama? Anything at all?

Ok, now ask the same question about McCain. Anything negative in the MSM about McCain?

So you have the entire news media of a nation 100% giving free publicity 24/7 to only one candidate in a race, and yet, that candidate is barely ahead?

Then add to that the economy sucks which also favors the party out of power.

Obama SHOULD be +20 here easily. The fact he is only +6 shows just how thin the ice is under his feet.

____________________

Batony:

The one thing I think a lot of people are forgetting about, is Joe Biden has never been in a debate of this magnitude one on one. In the primary he wasn’t the main focus and he was great. It will be interesting to see how he handles being the main focus. I think he will do fine, since he was my 1st choice in the Democratic Primary.

____________________

ticketstub:

@ Nick-socal

But do you really think voters will pick their president based on 1 VP debate performance? I believe when the dust settles, Thursday will be little more than a sideshow.

Both Biden and Palin know they can harm their candidate more easily than help them. So I think their number 1 goal will be "dont make a mistake." Especially Palin since, basically, if she comes across as even vaguely competent, the Media will treat it like a big win for her. But a big win for her is very unlikely to translate into votes for McCain.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Some of us have Obama +10 up. Its unlikely that McCain will go much below 37% in the Nationals.

So yes I agree he may go down another 4-5 in the course of the next week with the Undecided breaking 5-2 to Obama.

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

You seem to be under the impression that the definition of "fair" media coverage is that the media reports 50% positive things and 50% negative things about each candidate, and that reports about each candidate get an equal share of time.

Although a fair number of talking-head pundit shows try to subscribe to that definition of "fair", that's not how it works. "Fair" media coverage involves reporting what is actually happening. If one candidate is doing very public, very stupid things, there are going to be lots of negative stories about that candidate, and that is not in any way unfair.

Trying to distort the definition of "fair" into "treat all sides with equal amounts of positive coverage, regardless of their relative merits" is how we get crazy things like people arguing that creationism should have equal footing with evolution in public schools.

____________________

nick-socal:

@ticketstub, No I don't think it translates to votes for McCain. I do think what it might do is make the people who were already voting for McCain feel more comfortable with voting for him. However, I agree with zotz that the Dems need not underestimate Palin. Just for the simple fact that they don't need the news talking incessantly about how great Palin was in the debate. The Dems need to keep the focus on them, not McCain. Also, I'm one of the people who thinks that Palin won't do nearly as bad in this debate as some others think she will. So to me, she's basically already won the debate.

But no, I'm not sure that translates to votes for McCain. Just helps his supporters feel more comfortable voting for him. Maybe it allows him to stop focusing on getting those people to feel comfortable with him and then he can move on to converting more undecideds (if there's really any left) I dunno.

____________________

thoughtful:

Boom

My bad in the next WEEKS - the implication is that 10% are still really to make their minds up - not such a priority.

____________________

boomshak:

I HAVE A CHALLENGE:

Search the Internet. Find me an article written by an MSM reporter that is CRITICAL OF BARACK OBAMA today.

And not some BS like "Obama isn't being hard enough on the evil Republicans", but something that is actually critical of any of his policies or past.

Just one. Find it for me. Now try the past week. Go ahead.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@tyler

I could not agree with you more. You can't bash the media for accusing a person of doing stupid things when they are, in fact, doing stupid things.

____________________

Viperlord:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,6802141.story Take your liberal media conspiracy and shove it boom. The evil MSM has cut little slack on Obama, or did you deliberately not watch when anything was going bad for him? They cut no slack over his supposed associations, and I've never even heard them say the words Hagee, Parsley, or Keating Five. You can put lipstick on a liberal media conspiracy, but it's still a liberal media conspiracy.

____________________

ticketstub:

@nick-socal

Yeah, that makes sense to me. If she can help his base get back on board with him after last week, it probably would help him and give him a bit more wiggle room.

But I still suspect this debate will have the motto of "First, do no harm." Anything else, to either candidate, will just be gravy.

I think the only debate that'll really be interesting to see is the Town Hall style one.

____________________

nick-socal:

@boomshak. You can't blame the media for McCain's mistakes. They didn't create the mistakes. And Obama has been better at not making mistakes. You can't just wish the media would focus more on some nonexistent mistakes by Obama. The reality is that McCain is getting bad coverage because he's making dumb decisions and his actions of late have been erratic and of the reservation.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

This race should be over. the fact it is not should give you pause. Not only does Obama have 100% support of the media, a bad economy and an unpopular president, John McCain is running a horrible campaign.

This sends us a message. People don't WANT to vote for Obama, they are saying they will by default. His support is a mile wide and an inch deep.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@zotz

That might happen that Palin will be very aggressive in the Thursday VP debate but the issue is she will have to profoundly explain McCain position on each policy she might criticize Biden or Obama on, based on the previous interviews she already gave she barely knows McCain record and I doubt that 2 days are enough to learn a 26-year-record of McCain.
I've read a couple of articles which suggest that the best way for Biden to show her incompetence is to keep his responses short therefore she will have plenty of time to talk, that means the likelihood for her to have a blank of say an insanity will be higher

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Gwen Ifill: "Governor Palin, what exactly do you feel makes you experienced enough in the field of foreign policy to be the Vice President of the United States?"

Gov. Palin: "I personally believe that U.S. Americans are unable to do so because, uh, some, people out there in our nation don't have maps and, uh, I believe that our, uh, education like such as, uh, South Africa and, uh, the Iraq, everywhere like such as, and, I believe that they should, our education over here in the U.S. should help the U.S., uh, or, uh, should help South Africa and should help the Iraq and the Asian countries, so we will be able to build up our future, for our children."

____________________

Batony:

In any other year, the VP debate may not mean much. But considering the excitement and enthusiasm Palin has brought to the McCain campaign it's different this year. Plus there has never been a VP candidate who has more attention that she has. Hell, they drew about 10,000 yesterday in Ohio. And believe it wasn't b/c of McCain.

Now granted some of the luster has been taken off, but if she is coherent on Thursday, she automatically gives the McCain camp a boost.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boom

Very recently wasn't there the invented Bracelet smear?

McCain's up to his neck because he is what he is. He's been trying to grab the news cycles but with what? Stunts, Lies, Gaffes, Palin idiocies! So what do you expect.

He's not fit for purpose of POTUS is he?

____________________

boomshak:

@nick-socal:

The NYTimes recently ran a front-page story of over 4000 words discussing a free facial Sarah Palin got while Mayor of Wasilla.

Point to me the last story in the NYTimes about Obama's relationship with William Ayers? Rezko? ACORN? Why aren't they interested in getting his college transcripts? Why no in depth studies of his admitted drug use in his youth?

As a cartoonist recently said so aptly, "Chicago is in 'fly-over' country for the MSM".

____________________

boomshak:

MSM Polls have regularly OVERSAMPLED Democrats by 14 and 16 points.

An accident you say?

Ok, how many times has the MSM "accidentally" oversampled Republicans?

____________________

thoughtful:

@ Boom

Never happy mornings again for John McCain - the election has 5 weeks to run.


____________________

Viperlord:

Note that boomass ignores anything that doesn't fit his version of events, lol. For those who do want to read it instead of pretending it doesn't exist. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,6802141.story

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Calling the MSM "unfair" because they have been criticizing McCain instead of Obama is like calling the police force "unfair" because they have been arresting criminals instead of innocent bystanders.

____________________

Viperlord:

And it wasn't the LA times that did the study, the group that did it is on record as being independent, if not conservative.

____________________

boomshak:

I'm not saying Obama isn't an attractive candidate. Even the devil appears as an "angel of light".

I am just saying that based upon his track record the last 12 years, his current positions are bullsh*t. Did someone suddenly sprinkle magical "moderate dust" on him when the general election campaign began?

Even a pathological wife-beater can behave long enough for his wife to let him back in the house.

Who is the REAL Obama? the Obama of the past 12 years or the Obama of the past 3 months?

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

"Calling the MSM "unfair" because they have been criticizing McCain instead of Obama is like calling the police force "unfair" because they have been arresting criminals instead of innocent bystanders."

You win the prize for the dumbest comment of the day. Congratulations.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Obama is no radical, You know there is as many of us on the left concerned about him as you are.

He's a centrist and after GWB he will be a much better President.

____________________

Viperlord:

Boom, you just won the dumbest comment of the day, congratulations. Obama is more moderate than you might think, the evil liberal voting record is from 2007 only.

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

How many MSM reporters are in Chicago right now, combing through Obama's past, looking for any possible tidbit to use against him?

Where is the investigative expose on ACORN? I haven't heard the name "Reverend Wright" in a month. Did he die? Tony Rezko just turned state's evidence to get an easier sentence. Were are the teams of reporters on the scene looking for any scandalous tidbit about Obama?

Don't try to pretend the MSM is unbiased. You only look silly.

____________________

Batony:

C'mon now if everyone would be honest and admit their is media bias for Obama, we could move on. McCain just has to find a way to do it without the media.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

sorry buddy, theres nothing dumb about it. The MSM is expected to criticize people for making mistakes and doing stupid things. If you want them to be more critical of Obama, perhaps try calling the Obama campaign and ask them to start making mistakes? And it would also help if the McCain campaign wasnt eating up the entire news cycle by pulling stupid stunts like campaign suspensions.

You had a good start this morning boom. Unfortunately, you are now back to being the biggest moron on pollster for about the 60th day running.

____________________

boomshak:

Obama is politically ambidextrous. He can convincingly argue two completely contrary positions within a period of weeks and seem equally convincing on both.

If anyone calls him on his bullsh*t, he will look them right in the eye and confidently declare "this has ALWAYS been my position". Luckily, he has a compliant press that will say "Ok Mr Obama, whatever you say!"

____________________

thoughtful:

Batony and Boomshak

You guys are deluding yourself.

Mccain is handled with kid gloves by MSM.

For the last 2 weeks he has repeatedly on a daily basis made a complete idiot of himself.

Has MSM questioned his sanity. Asked that his Navy psycological profle records being released?

____________________

Tyler:

@boomshak

You're asking us to find for you a mainstream media story critical of Barack Obama today. How about you tell us what Barack Obama has done today (or in the last day or two) that is worthy of a critical story?

You mention a lack of articles on Rezko, Ayers, etc. Those are not current events, therefore such articles would be hit pieces. It's not like the current articles critical of John McCain are bringing up the Keating Five (even though that's arguably relevant), or other things from the past like his horrible treatment of his first wife - they're talking about McCain's spastic response to the financial crisis, and his recently stunt-filled campaign.

In what universe is the press obligated to offset reporting on bad current behavior by one candidate by running stories about the other candidate's past?

____________________

Viperlord:

Lol, boom's hypocrisy is killing me, he's still trying to sell the liberal media conspiracy. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,6802141.story (Again, this study was done by a group known to be independent, IF NOT CONSERVATIVE)

____________________

boomshak:

Sorry, anyone who at this point just doesn't come out and admit that there is a HUGE MSM bias for Obama is just being willfully ignorant.

They all have their guns pointed at McCain. He just needs to stop giving them bullets.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@viperlord

He peddles bull**** on a daily basis. What kind of idiot can't understand that the MSM is going to talk about a stupid fake move like a campaign suspension made for political reasons constantly and be critical of it??

The MSM has been VERY easy on McCain for his bull****.

____________________

zotz:

I don't have any proof of this but I think boomshak and Batony are the same person. Each poster has an identifiable personality and they just seem the same to me.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

For months I have been telling you that John McCain is unelectable because he is John McCain.

He can not help but give them bullets.

____________________

Viperlord:

And your being willfully ignorant, not to mention pigheadedly stupid to pretend there's a massive bias. Actually learn to read. And stop denying reality. Honestly, I'm laughing my ass off reading your comments, your ability to deny reality is truly remarkable. The media, up until McCain's pigheadedness finally attracted their attention around the RNC, were attacking Obama all out, over everything. Once again: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,6802141.story

____________________

thoughtful:

@Zotz

The B & B show run a party line.

I miss Stillow, what happened to Player? Boskop dumped some yesterday, it was such a relief to have another lunatic other than Boomshak!

____________________

KipTin:

You know cinnamonape... No need to insult me by stating in reference to me..."That shows a demonstrable lack of understanding of statistics." I am trying to interject a reality check on these polls... nothing more... whereas you look for and demonstrate bias.

FYI: With your "intellectual analysis" you seemed to have missed the SIMPLE concept of "sampling errors."

For example, PPP's NC poll here showing Obama at 47 with a MOE of 3%. The pollster is "95% confident" the percentage of the entire likely voter population of North Carolina that supports Obama is between 44% and 50%. Likewise that the same populaton support is between 42% and 48% for McCain. Nothing complicated about that.

I do not know why you feel compelled to over-analyze these political polls. Even, if in your convoluted view, it makes you feel better to believe that Obama has a sustained lead, it does not predict how people will actually vote... especially since the election is 5 weeks away.

Remember that MSM depended too much on "exit" polls in past elections and made false predictions of the outcome in states that had very slim margins, e.g. Florida.

____________________

Viperlord:

72% of stories on Obama being negative isn't exactly a evil liberal bias. Totally ignoring McCain's bull**** like most do is. I mean seriously, the media flew into full rage over General Clark saying military service that was not on the command level is no qualification for President. You call that liberal bias? LMAO.

____________________

thoughtful:

@ Undecided/KipTin

Good to have you back in the forum!

I agree with previous comment.

____________________

KipTin:

I think that MSM has a bias for Obama. The polls show that more than half of voters also believe this. That Obamanation is arguing otherwise does not make it not so.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Kiptin

On the flip side, that you are arguing for it does not make it SO.

____________________

thoughtful:

@KipTin

Perception is reality at some levels. But perception may not be the actuality.

MSM have been holding McCain up like a punch drunk fighter for weeks to have some kind of story.

He is basically done.

The GOP money will go to their Candidates who still have some viability left.

____________________

Viperlord:
____________________

thoughtful:

Kiptin and Boomshak

McCain's accellerated demize came about because he and his Campaign got called out on a couple of lies too many. Once a Candidate gets branded a Liar and can't refute - slippery slopes.

He's finished.

Obama now leads in trust and by some, I have Obama up by an average today by 7% and Confidently predict by 8% on Thursday on the 4 trackers. Battleground I'll include next week, once they have corrected their Demo weightings!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@viperlord

save it. When you make **** up like boomshak, you're not going to typically take the time to read.

____________________

Viperlord:

True, I used to find boom amusing, but it's getting annoying, perhaps I should spend more time at 538.

____________________

Batony:

@Thoughtful

If the media would have done their research on Obama and discovered the Rev Wright video before the Iowa caucuses ...where would Obama be right now? Working on the bailout bill full-time.

This is the worse I have ever seen. Boom is right. The New York Times should just fold. Their influence is zero b/c they have become outrageously pro-Obama. The Wasilla article was such a waste of paper. I don't know the last time I have seen a positive article from AP about McCain.

But again, McCain has to somehow get over this. Play it to his advantage. There are still plenty of voters who recognize the majority of news outlets lean heavily to the left. I learned my lesson during the illegal immigration debacle.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Kercchdavis

Boom was very realistic earlier today, he is just so frustrated with McCain and the Campaign.

He sems to have retroed, I owe KipTin a small apology, the presentation of facts gets a little too blurred from time to time.

But Boom just ignores reality.

____________________

Tyler:

@KipTin Re: Sampling errors

No, it is not as simple as saying "within the margin of error, therefore the poll means nothing". Read this carefully: with respect to sampling error, the probability that a given hypothetical scenario represents reality decreases _rapidly_ as the numbers in the hypothesis move away from the reported result.

All the MOE says is that if you have a hypothesis that brings both numbers to the extremes of result +/- MOE, the probability that this hypothesis represents reality is no less than 2.5%.

Is a hypothesis with a probability of 2.5% really that drastically different than a hypothesis with a probability of 2.2% or even 1.5%? Not really. MOE is totally arbitrary, and actually rather loose.

If I say that I'm only willing to consider scenarios with at least a probability of 50% of being true, I have a much smaller range into which I can hypothesize - I can't move away much from the reported result and still have a better chance than not that my result is correct.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@thoughtful

Boom was doing good this morning, I agree. lol, its like he has a disease and we're monitoring him day to day.

"He had a good morning where he showed glimpses of normal brain activity. Sadly, he's back to being brain dead this afternoon."

____________________

thoughtful:

@Batony

There was nothing wrong with Rev Wright's Sermons.

In my view, Wright for me is a Genuine War Hero.

McCain is a Genuine Hot Shot Pilot who got himself shot down and captured, serving 5 1/2 years as POW.

____________________

Viperlord:

So now McCain is blaming everything on Bill Clinton in a last ditch attempt to cast himself as tough on companies? LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL.

____________________

marctx:

Calling the MOST LIBERAL SENATOR in congress a "centrist" is such bull**** I doubt even Obama supporters will buy. The conservatives would fall of the table if you try to push Obama to the middle.

McCain said it best, "its hard to reach across the isle from so far from the left".

I've never seen a platform built on a foundation of lies. If Obama is elected he will pass tax increases, massive welfare and giveaways, cut military spending, legalize everything San Fransisco.

Change in values, change in culture, thats change Obama believes in...

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Viperlord:

Back it up. Any of it, if you can't, STFU.

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Viperlord:

He's not the most liberal senator overall, just in 2007, he's lowering taxes on the majority of Americans, and he supports expanding the military. The rest is straight from a neocon propaganda pamphlet.

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Viperlord:

In fact, it's all from a neocon propaganda pamphlet, and none of it has any foundation in fact.

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