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NC: Obama 48, McCain 46 (WSOCTV-10/20-21)

Topics: PHome

WSOC-TV / Marshall Marketing and Communications
10/20-21/08; 500 LV, 4.4%
Mode: IVR

North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 46
Sen: Hagan (D) 44, Dole (R-i) 43
Gov: Perdue (D) 44, McCrory (R) 44

 

Comments
Babbit:

Ya know, I'm beginning to wonder about SC. It is between the yellow NC and the pink GA. Maybe it will turn pink as well one of these days.

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Karma Police:

The birthplace of the confederacy? i think not. Remember SC has no Research Triangle or Atlanta.

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

Yes, but Charleston is very cosmopolitan and a University town. South Carolina could come around one day. It's no Oklahoma.

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joethedummer:

sign sealed deliverd!

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AdamSC:

Also, Horry County, the east coast where Myrtle Beach is on is very democratic.

Other than University counties and Horry county, South Carolina is truly one of the most conservative states. But there is some change here, people are starting to frown about McCain and his supporters probably won't come out to vote.

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PortlandRocks:

Hey Palin ran Wasiilla into a 25 million dollar debt. WHY NOT THE GOP TOO! HAHAHAHAHA!

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PortlandRocks:

I never took NC seriously but MY GOD. I just looked at like the last 10 polls, and although not a huge lead. Obama is tied or ahead in EVERY SINGLE damn poll:

Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain Obama Barr Nader Undecided Other Margin
CNN/Time 10/19-21/08 644 LV 47 51 - - 2 - +4D
Civitas Institute/Tel Opinion Research (R) 10/18-20/08 600 LV 45 48 1 - 7 - +3D
SurveyUSA 10/18-20/08 627 LV 47 47 - - 3 3 0
Zogby (Internet) 10/17-20/08 921 LV 47 50 - - 4 - +3D
Fox/Rasmussen 10/19/08 700 LV 48 51 - - 1 - +3D
Politico/InsiderAdvantage 10/19/08 698 LV 48 49 - - - - +1D
PPP (D) 10/18-19/08 1200 LV 44 51 2 - 4 - +7D
Research 2000/DailyKos.com (D) 10/14-15/08 600 LV 44 46 - - 7 3 +2D
InsiderAdvantage 10/13/08 474 LV 46 48 - - 5 1 +2D
Zogby (Internet) 10/9-13/08 831 LV 46 50 - - 4 - +4D
Fox/Rasmussen 10/12/08 1000 LV 48 48 - - 3 - 0
PPP (D) 10/11-12/08 1196 LV 46 49 1 - 3 - +3D
Rasmussen 10/8/08 700 LV 48 49 - - 2 1 +1D
Civitas Institute/Tel Opinion Research (R) 10/6-8/08 600 LV 43 48 2 - 7 - +5D

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Babbit:

I don't think SC is any more 'south' than Georgia. Maybe I'm wrong.

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lhtk:

Steady as she goes. Even though well within MOE by itself, confirms other polls that give Obama a small lead.

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laguna_b:

Seems like the only thing tightening is the noose......

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JCK:

As pointed out, SC does not have a large city. Charleston is MUCH smaller than Atlanta.

SC will go blue only if Obama is ahead by 15%+ in the national polls.

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boomshak:

FROM GALLUP: DON'T EXPECT YOUNG VOTERS TO MAKE AS MUCH A DIFFERENCE AS YOU MIGHT THINK

Gallup Poll daily tracking suggests that 18- to 29-year-olds are not nearly as likely as older voters to be registered to vote, to say they are thinking about the election, or to express strong intentions to vote. Thus, as of mid-October, there is not convincing evidence in the Gallup data that young voters will in fact vote at higher rates than in past elections. But even if things change over the next two weeks and many more young adults do become motivated to vote, turnout alone would do little to change the candidates' overall support, according to Gallup's likely voter models.

Gallup will continue to monitor the responses of 18- to 29-year-olds to the likely voter questions between now and Election Day to see whether the current situation changes.

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laguna_b:

RCP has dad O bouncing between +5 and +7.6 fr days...now 7.0% Anyone want to guess the max before Nov.4?

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alankeyesisawesome:

Thanks for that Boomshak.

Is there anything we can discourage young voters from turning out in fewer numbers? Obama MUST NOT be allowed to win this election!

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laguna_b:

@alankeyesislame

"Is there anything we can discourage young voters from turning out in fewer numbers? Obama MUST NOT be allowed to win this election!"

Draft em for Iran! You would LOVE that wouldn't you Alan...yet another war to spend our lives and treasure on!

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deeznutsrepubs:

No, the rednecks there would all have to inbreed themselves into sterility before it goes blue......could happen.

Instead they will likely inbreed themselves just so they are mildly retarded - and thus retain the facade of a "normal" human. Oh well, maybe one day they will just procreate exclusively with siblings and not just cousins.....


Unlike NC or GA, there aren't enough universities or big cities with all those intellectuals (I mean elitists) to offset the retard vote.....similar to Alabama actually.

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak WOW so Obama's up 5 in a "traditional" voter model. Thanks for proving our point. McCain's ****ed.

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zoot:

AK - Boomy's October surprise is an executive order from W setting 65 as the minimum voting age, and restricting it to residents of towns with fewer than 10,000 population. That should do it.

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politicalmomma2:

Dear Mr. alankeyes...
What exactly does it mean to ask "Is there anything we can discourage young voters from turning out in fewer numbers?" (You were apparently very excited about this thought, as you failed to edit carefully.)
Why should anyone be discouraged or prevented from voting?
If you are a Republican, you should recognize that voting is patriotic and an act that should be encouraged.

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Look at little Boomshak, pretending that if he repeats something enough times it'll come true.

Go ahead, buddy. Sit in mom's basement scarfind down your 12th can of Pringles for the day, telling yourself that no one's really going to show up and vote for Obama.

Of course they won't. Of course they won't.

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Babbit:

alan & boom: Maybe you could start convincing 18-22 year olds that polls close before noon. That should keep a few of them away. *rolls eyes* After all, young people have no stake in this election what so ever. It's not like the next president's policies will directly affect them throughout the years they are trying to make a start in life.

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GoodRiddensW:

If you've ever been to those states, you'd know GA and SC (or TN) will not go blue any time soon. But wouldn't it be nice to see both coasts entirely blue? Will be something if Obama hangs onto NC. More likely the longer McCain spends time/money in PA and NH.

Looking forward to saying good bye to Ms. Dole.

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Nowukkers:

alankeyesisabettingvotersuppression:

Are you advocating an ostensibly criminal activity? I am sure that the DOJ would love to know more ... Wait a minute, the DOJ's in the pocket of the GOP anyway what would they care? Let's try the Nevada Attorney General, or the U.S. Attorney for the District of Nevada?

Be careful what you wish for ...

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boomshack:

A critical thing that all of you moonbats are forgetting is that those young 18-29 yo voters are getting OLDER every day with the approaching election! By November 4th some of them will be two weeks older and many will not fit into that demo any more!

FAIL!

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Rollin08:

@politicalmomma2:

You haven't been around lately? They'll scare people into not voting for Obama calling them un-american, whatever. Keeping people from voting, you think they'll blink twice about doing that? Ha, this is war!

Maybe they'll nuke un-american parts of the country if it gets any worse and their candidate doesn't start winning.

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boomshack:

politicalmomma2:

Dear Mr. alankeyes...
What exactly does it mean to ask "Is there anything we can discourage young voters from turning out in fewer numbers?

It means that he wants to encourage young voters to turn out in greater numbers. And there is nothing wrong with that. Except that they are getting older!

OWN!

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Rollin08:

Notice that boomshack isn't boomshak..

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kerrchdavis:

"By November 4th some of them will be two weeks older and many will not fit into that demo any more!"

ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Rollin08:

Lol it is kind of funny though

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alankeyesisawesome:

Well, I don't care if we need to resort to questionable activities or not. For example, my friend is a conservative like me, and his parents are democrats...they voted absentee, and when they gave him their ballots to mail (he said he was going to the post office anyway), instead of putting it in the mailbox, he threw it in the trash instead. While this may not have been too good of him, I'm still quite glad he did it. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

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kerrchdavis:

I like the new boomshack much better

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Viperlord:

Alan Keyes destroyed his remaining credibility (However little that is). What moral high ground can someone who advocates voter suppression have? Lol.

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boomshack:

This is a bogus poll. Who's ever even heard of this WSOCTV?! I LIVE in NC and I happen to own SEVERAL TV (television) sets and I have NEVER heard of this WSCOCTV garbage. How do you even pronounce that?!

There is something very screwy here - did you see the internals? The vowel/consonant ratio is COMPLETELY OFF! It's like 6 : 1!! Even pinko DailyKosine does not over represent consonants like that! It is well known that Republicans cannot pronounce words with too many consonants. They are too consonated and need a vowel movement. Too few vowels favor DEMS.
FAIL!

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CaptainPatent:

Boomshak - I call BS, the younger vote may still be about the same but you're ignoring a couple more demographics that have already turned out:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/21/early.voting/

"Fifty-six percent, of those voting early in North Carolina were Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 16 percent were not registered as a member of a party, the elections board said.[...]

Of Georgians who have voted early, a majority, 56 percent, were women, according to the Georgia secretary of state's office. About 60 percent of those voting were white, while 35 percent voting early were black, the office said.[...]

Like Georgia, a majority of those voting early in North Carolina -- 56 percent -- were women, the election board said. The board also reported that 68 percent of those voting early were white, while 28 percent were black."

This is another reason Gallup (the source you cited) still shows Obama up 9 points even though their model doesn't have youth coming out.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@viperlord

Well, his parents will never know the difference. I'm just glad he was able to do it because as you may know, NV is going to come down to the wire, and we need to do everything we can to get McCain to win.

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Louis:

I think it is clear that "alankeyesisawesome" is pulling out leg. I reaaly don't believe there are many people encouraging the destruction of abseentee ballots which may be a federal crime.

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KipTin:

Remember that the youth vote is getting proportionally smaller as the baby boomers get older. Note: in 1972 when there was a Vietnam draft as well as the first year that 18-yr olds could vote, they still turned out in smaller percentage than older voters. The youth vote for Kerry was also very disappointing and then the anti-Iraq War movement against Bush was strong. So Gallup polling data is not a surprise.

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deeznutsrepubs:

alankeystard-

That's funny, my friend is a postman and picks up mail from a large evangelical church in colorado srings. They had a whole bunch of absentee ballots they wanted to send out the other day. He picked them, opened them up and saw they were all for mccain. So he wiped his ass with them and threw them in a river.

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boomshack:

CaptainPatent:

Boomshak - I call BS, the younger vote may still be about the same but you're ignoring a couple more demographics that have already turned out:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/21/early.voting/

"Fifty-six percent, of those voting early in North Carolina were Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 16 percent were not registered as a member of a party, the elections board said.[...]

Well, HELLO CAPTAIN OBVIOUS!
I have ALREADY discussed that this morning in an earlier thread! Go back and read it: this poll is BOGUS because the DEMS and WOMEN are SO OVERREPRESENTED! DUH!

You moonbats all need to get a grip! Look at the Ras model - do you see a 2:1 DEM advantage? NO! Even DailyKOSYGIN (you can look him up in your spare time) does not give ANYWHERE NEAR that edge to the libs.

I AM GETTING SO TIRED OF ANSWERING THE SAME QUESTIONS FROM YOU MOONBATS OVER AND OVER!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Louis
Well, it's not a federal crime because he's not destroying the ballots...it's just that they're going in the trash. If his parents wanted to make sure their ballots wouldn't have gotten lost, they should have taken them to the mailbox themselves.

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boomshack:

KipTin:

Remember that the youth vote is getting proportionally smaller as the baby boomers get older.

EXACTLY what I was saying! Not only are they all getting proportionally smaller, but also OLDER. So there is less of them and fewer altogether!
Thank you!

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Trosen:

boomshack:

"A critical thing that all of you moonbats are forgetting is that those young 18-29 yo voters are getting OLDER every day with the approaching election! By November 4th some of them will be two weeks older and many will not fit into that demo any more!"

I think I may have just read the dumbest thing ever posted in the history of the internet.

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KipTin:

So... Captain Patent... How do you know how all those people voted? We know the demographics because Georgia is one of two states required to keep records because they are under federal mandate to ensure that there is no discrimination, but that is all we know... demographics.

For comparison purposes from U.S. Census Quickfacts (2006)....

Georgia--
White persons: 66%
Black persons: 30%

North Carolina--
White persons: 74%
Black persons: 22%

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boomshack:

Trosen:

boomshack:

I think I may have just read the dumbest thing ever posted in the history of the internet.

I really don't care what you think. Kip Tin agrees with me, and she is one of the most intelligent posters on this site!

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Trosen:

boomshack:
Trosen:

boomshack:

I think I may have just read the dumbest thing ever posted in the history of the internet.

"I really don't care what you think. Kip Tin agrees with me, and she is one of the most intelligent posters on this site!"


Wow.. make that the 2d dumbest.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@boomshack

Don't feed the trolls...why is it that the libs think that their opinions are the only ones that matter.

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lilyogini:

I'm beginning to wonder if some on this thread can truly read.

Boomshack is not Boomshak.

But alankeyesisawesome, you can continue to think Boomshack is on your side :o)

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maddiekat:

Alankeyes

You are still a dumb bastard!!

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oicu:


You live in NC and have never heard of WSOC? Just shows how ignorant you really are.

http://www.wsoctv.com/

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boomshack:

Trosen:

Wow.. make that the 2d dumbest

That's the problem right there! You think in 2d!
It took Kip Tin to point out to you that people shrink as they age! Just look at the old people, how they are all shriveled up and wrinkly. Of course they get smaller with age! DUH.

But their VOTE still counts the SAME as your "youth", the only difference is THERE ARE WAY MORE AGING BABY BOOMERS than your youth, AND they have more time to vote.

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boomshack:

oicu:

You live in NC and have never heard of WSOC? Just shows how ignorant you really are.

I don't TRUST ABC polls, and I most certainly will NOT watch their MSM propaganda. Educated people, if they read, read Washington Times and watch FoxNews. DUH! FAIL!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@boomshack

Don't forget newsmax!

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boomshack:

I have VHS, not newsmax.

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DTM:

The parody poster to real poster ratio on this website is getting very high.

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lilyogini:

DTM, are you saying that alankeyesisawesome is also a parody poster?

Dang, maybe I don't know parody from real anymore.

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maddiekat:

boom****

Have a drink and fix another wheelchair! When it comes to politics you suck. My guess for tomorrow is the Battleground Poll will be Obama + 5 tomorrow.

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boomshack:

maddiekat:

boom****

Have a drink and fix another wheelchair! When it comes to politics you suck. My guess for tomorrow is the Battleground Poll will be Obama + 5 tomorrow.

It is not polite to make fun of the specially abled, maddiekat. You ought to be ashamed of yourself! I never said I fixed wheelchairs. I told another poster that for all he knew I fixed wheelchairs. See the difference? And there is no need for rudeness even when we disagree. Even when we disagree we can still choose to be agreeable. That's what sets us apart from those baboons in KY.

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AdamSC:

I was just at a "Rally for Change" in Fayettevile, North Carolina. I spoke with a lot of folks around there, a lot of military families as well.

North Carolina is going to be a close state this year and it will probably swing Obama's way.

There was about 16,000 people at the rally I went to and when all those military families heard about the Colin Powell endorsement, they went crazy.

A lot of Miliatry families are already voting early. A recent poll taken shows that 3 out of 5 margin of military families support Obama and a 3 to 1 margin of military families actually donate money to the campaign.

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maddiekat:

Boom****

I never really thought you fixed wheelchairs for a living. When I think of you I think of big glasses, an old car, and pizza.

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AdamSC:

The poll I was referring to only applies to North Carolina.

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RaleighNC:

McCain will win NC by at least 4 points. I live here. You should trust me. :-)

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boomshack:

maddiekat:

Boom****

I never really thought you fixed wheelchairs for a living. When I think of you I think of big glasses, an old car, and pizza.

what kind of pizza?
and if you never thought about wheelchairs, why even bring them up? it's like me saying "oh, I never thought of Mitt Romney mud wrestling with Sarah Palin" - see? If I never thought that, then why would I say it?

OWN!

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DTM:

@lilyogini

I am 100% certain the original alankeyesisawesome is a parody--and an amusing one, in my opinion. The only problem is that some people don't seem to realize he is a parody even after repeated interactions, but that just shows he is doing it very well.

Unfortunately, he seems to have spawned a bunch more variations. I don't find those nearly as amusing.

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Publius:

The only thing that matters is this: Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

I have no doubt that Obama is up more than 2 in PA based on the myriad polls we have seen. He is ahead enough in VA that McCain would need to run heavy there just to catch up, and he doesn't have the money. Let OH and FL go. They would be nice jewels and would pin McCain down for a few days, but they are not necessary.

McCain has nowhere else to go, the economy will continue to worsen, and bin Laden just announced that McCain is his candidate of choice.

Obama will begin running his positive, forward-looking ads starting with the 30 minute buys next week and will look more presidential every day.

If boom and alankeyes are the best the Republicans have, then they are in serious trouble.

Be cool.

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kerrchdavis = boomshack

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maddiekat:

boom****

You do watch Countdown. That was Keiths exact words last night. Oh my God you an Obama toll.

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Trosen:

haha.. didn't even notice the "c." Ok.. I'm a dumbass. Nice impersonation though.. had me fooled.

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douglasfactors:

oicu:

You live in NC and have never heard of WSOC? Just shows how ignorant you really are.

I lived in Durham for 11 years and never heard of WSOC.

Just sayin'.

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AdamSC:

@RaleighNC

Obama is up very handily in early voting in your city. As well as Fayetteville, Wilmington, Charlotte, Whiteville and some other places I can't think of off the top of my head.

Early voting is going to make all the difference this year.

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RaleighNC:

AdamSC...thanks for telling me. LOL. I know about early voting. Trust me. McCain will win NC.

And Dick Elliott (D) will lose his seat in Horry County, SC. And if you know Linda Ketner tell her to save her money on more ads. :-)

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maddiekat:

RaleighNC

Want to bet!

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@BOOMSHAK
"there is not convincing evidence in the Gallup data that young voters will in fact vote at higher rates than in past elections"

From Rock the Vote:
"After a nearly continuous downward turnout trend since 1972, turnout among 18-29 year olds was up significantly in 2004 and 2006.

In 2004, 20.1 million 18-29 year olds voted, a 4.3 million jump over 2000. The turnout increase (9% points) among the youngest voters was more than double that of the overall electorate (4% points). (U.S. Census Bureau)

In 2006, the youth increased by 1.9 million over 2002 levels. Turnout among the youngest voters grew by 3% points over 2002, twice the turnout increase (1.7% points) of older voters. (U.S. Census Bureau)"

Click link for a great site about youth voting participation facts.

One question, boomshak, isn't it logical that the increase in youth vote trend will continue going by all the indicators and internals we've seen? I'm under 29 and there will definately be a huge youth turnout. I think only a crazy person would think otherwise.

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hou04:

Today's TIPP tracking has Obama +4... 46-42

Their poll has McCain winning the 18-24 vote 53-43???

Please....

This from Politico:

"A new survey of young voters from Harvard’s Institute of Politics has one result that you could’ve predicted: by a 26-point margin, voters aged 18-24 support Barack Obama over John McCain."

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boomshack:

hou04:

This from Politico:

"A new survey of young voters from Harvard’s Institute of Politics has one result that you could’ve predicted: by a 26-point margin, voters aged 18-24 support Barack Obama over John McCain."

PAH-LEEZE! well, of COURSE you'd expect those Hahvahd libs to promote one of their own! The MSM fix is in, BIG TIME.

FAIL!
Next

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zoot:

Moderators, clear rastus out of here, s/he's either a singularly bigoted a**hole or a singularly unfunny a**hole. Your choice as to which is more offensive.

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AdamSC:

@RaleighNC

Your right about Linda Ketner, unfortunately South Carolina is way to conservative to elect a liberal woman for congress. You never know though, there's a lot of people I've been hearing from that's going to be voting democrat all the way down the ballot.

And also, I lived and am from North Carolina orginally. I go to every Carolina Panthers home game, I'll see you there this Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. Trust me I know, Obama will win in NC.

(Kinda ironic were playing the "Arizona Cardinals" on the Sunday before the bye week, which is actually two days away from Election Day.)

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cinnamonape:

"Today's TIPP tracking has Obama +4... 46-42

Their poll has McCain winning the 18-24 vote 53-43???

Please...."

Land-line only youth were shown by a Pew survey to vote 30% or more higher for McCain than Obama when contrasted to cell-phone only young voters. It was a quite significant difference. I suspect that they only polled land-line under 24's. But PEW estimated that with a mix of land-line only, cell/land-line, and cell-only from random contacts...that Obama had a 10% lead.

So I suspect that the above was Land-Line only.


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Noel:

Daily KOS

NC early voting update 10/22/08
Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 06:28:19 AM PDT

A total of 544,020 have voted early in their one stop voting in all 100 counties. Here's the breakdown by party.

Democrats......... 329,961
Republicans........ 124,402
Independents........ 89,119

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/22/8511/8635/202/638484

One-Stop Early Voting

A North Carolina resident who is qualified to register to vote may register In-Person and vote at a One-Stop Site in the person's county of residence during the One-Stop Absentee Voting period. The One-Stop Voting period extends from 19 to 3 days before Election Day.

This Week With Barack Obama

http://thisweekwithbarackobama.blogspot.com/

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Noel:

Daily KOS

NC early voting update 10/22/08
Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 06:28:19 AM PDT

A total of 544,020 have voted early in their one stop voting in all 100 counties. Here's the breakdown by party.

Democrats......... 329,961
Republicans........ 124,402
Independents........ 89,119

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/22/8511/8635/202/638484

One-Stop Early Voting

A North Carolina resident who is qualified to register to vote may register In-Person and vote at a One-Stop Site in the person's county of residence during the One-Stop Absentee Voting period. The One-Stop Voting period extends from 19 to 3 days before Election Day.

This Week With Barack Obama

http://thisweekwithbarackobama.blogspot.com/

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AdamSC:

Report:

AP Poll Flawed

Link: http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/new-flawed-ap-poll-claims-mccain-and.html


News is that 45% of Evangelical's and whatever else religious sect makes up most of the poll when in 2004 only 23% of this factored into the elections actual makeup.

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Basil:

Evangelical's makeup is usually tastelessly applied anyway. Max factor is 23%, tops.

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burrito:

Another bad day for boomshak ... Zogby's poll shows Obama extending his lead over McCain :

Obama 52
McCain 40

and that is just the beginning ...

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terrapinwill:

Sorry, but the 4.4 MOE makes this poll virtually meaningless.

____________________



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