Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

NC: Obama 49, McCain 48 (PPP-10/15-16)

Topics: PHome

Public Policy Polling (D)
10/25-26/08; 1,038 LV, 2.8%
Mode: IVR

North Carolina
Obama 49, McCain 48, Barr 1
Sen: Hagan (D) 48, Dole (R-i) 45, Cole (L) 4

 

Comments
Trosen:

Geez pollster, it's about time you had your hourly typo. (The dates should read 10/25-10/26)

____________________

NorthernObserver:

How about the numbers though Trosen? Do these seem right to you?

____________________

political_junki:

Where are you BOOM?
You see tightening every where, one place that real tightening is happening you are absent :)

If PPP has Obama +1 in NC, things have tightened here. Well NC was a long shot to begin with, it is very useful for spreading McSame's resources thin though...

____________________

Trosen:

Yea.. NC will be neck and neck.

____________________

Mister H.:

*Waits for Boomshak to weigh-in with his usual "This poll is obviously biased because blah, blah, blah" comments.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'm still pinching myself that a DEM is winning NC, NORTH CAROLINA with less than a week to go.

____________________

Trosen:

Yea NW, it's pretty telling. The fact that states like MO, NC, and maybe even IN are true toss-ups is very indicative of where this race really is.

____________________

Yellow Dog Democrat:

North Carolina is in play! I bet Barack is going to do a huge rally in Raleigh or Chapel Hill next week.

____________________

mysticlaker:

NC will be a nail biter, but I think it goes Obama. The early voting is critical.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

NC would be the cherry on top of the sundae. Check out their early voter patterns to show the enthusiasm!

North Carolina
Dem 55.1% 48.6%
Rep 27.7% 37.4%
None 17.2% 14.1%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

My thought on the "independents / none/ other" there are plenty of former republicans who have already voted for Obama. Not quite ready to call themselves a Democrat, but definitely not aligned with the rethug party anymore.

____________________

thoughtful:

boomshak

A genuine tightened poll!

We know that from your advantaged and expert view point that Obama is going to win NC.

Have you managed to get registered since you moved to the new home? It looks like yours is a most needed vote!

____________________

MichaelJason:

Although I believe Obama will win comfortably overall, I was really salivating at the stealing of NC. PPP had Obama up 51 to 44 last week. I do however think that the polls are not capturing the huge black turnout and youth turnout in their models, so Obama will likely squeak out a 51/49 win in NC.

____________________

sunnymi:


Having banked 62% of the 33% early vote thus far Obama has already secured 20.5% of the vote he needs to win the state....He needs just about 43% of the remaining 67% of the votes to be cast in the state....What works in his favor is that a majority of the Democrats have already cast their vote and if some of the remaining voters do not cast their vote then the % of vote he needs to win falls even further.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

A rally in Raleigh -- how alliterative! :-)

____________________

lee:

"Yea NW, it's pretty telling. The fact that states like MO, NC, and maybe even IN are true toss-ups is very indicative of where this race really is."

Perhaps in general (re: IA and NC), but MO has always been a swing-state. It's voted for every winning candidate in the 20th century, bar one (both Dem and Rep).

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

North Carolina is not a toss-up on Intrade. Obama is nearly a 1/2 favorite. I'm tempted to put more on McCain at that price but I'm already involved and that's my shakiest position.

When I played McCain in North Carolina it was based on a belief Obama's national margin would be less than 5-6 points. Once it reaches that margin then North Carolina definitely has potential to flip. Very low number of undecideds in most of the North Carolina polls.

This could be a case where the early voting works in Obama's favor.

____________________

JCK:

@MichaelJason,

Take a look at the PPP blog; the pollster takes on the issue of black turnout.

He calculates that black turnout will be about 20-22%, up from 18.5% in 2004.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com

Just like everyone in 2004 was saying that the pollsters were ignoring the youth and "cell phone only voters" (and were wrong), don't blindly assume that pollsters are failing to account for increased black turnout.

____________________

The early voting in NC is what is keeping my hope alive for this state. It is an amazing demographic distribution. If it keeps up till Sunday it will be very hard to overcome on election day I believe.

____________________

"McCain attacks 'Barack the Redistributor'

Hasn't he figured out already that every time he brings this up it improves Obama's numbers? Bro, it's going to be hard to find anyone making under $250K that doesn't want a little wealth thrown there way!

____________________

Jacob S:

Ras has a poll out that shows McCain ahead in AZ by ONLY FIVE POINTS. I think that we all know where this could be heading...

____________________

Divots:

It looks like this is going to be another barn burner- Ipsos Reid Survey (1000 respondents) for Canadian Broadcast Corporation 10/25/08 - McCain 46% Obama 46% Barr 1% Undecided 7%...This thing is dead even...People are starting to have second thoughts...scary.

____________________

Paul:

This PPP poll has 21% AA. In 2004, vote turnout was 26% AA.

____________________

fed:

BREAKING NEWS
Russians are getting Lenin´s body ready to get it transported to the US, and desplay it in the capitol for the first month of Obama´s administation.

____________________

Divots

Is that in NC?

____________________

BLeigh82:

TMT, you are correct. This is a state where early voting may help Obama even if the polls indicate that the state is swiging back in McCain's direction in the next week or so.

It will probably all depend on African-American turn out and how much white support McCain ends up bleeding...time will tell.

Either way, this state is a much watch next Tuesday.

____________________

tar_heel:

divots: that's a tiny sample

____________________

JCK:

Paul,

The 26% AA number comes from exit polls, which are not correct. I'll try to track down a source, but the state numbers from 2004 (which are cited by PPP) are 18.5%.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Keep in mind this is still a big improvement from 2004 when blacks accounted for just 18.5% of general election voters.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

NORTH CAROLINA IS MORE THAN JUST "MAYBE"...

Two things to consider:
1) Obama has been ahead in the last 16 out of 17 polls from NC. This is in spite of the fact that pollsters are likely underestimating AA turnout (e.g. as Paul pointed out above, PPP has 21%AA while in 2004 it was 26%AA).

2) Obama consistently outperformed the polls in the South during the primaries, often by double digits. In North Carolina, the actual result was 6+ points better for Obama than the RCP poll average.

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

sunnymi, I would be careful with those registration numbers in early voting. The estimates I've seen based on registration are too favorable to Obama.

North Carolina is one of those states where registration does not match party ID. In 2004 the Party ID was 39% Democrat, 40% Republican, even though statewide registration favored Democrats by 12.1%. Many registered Democrats, no doubt the older DINOs who never changed registration or simply favor Republicans in federal races, self identify as Republicans. Using those registration numbers from early voting, no doubt you are counting Democratic voters who actually voted for McCain, more than the other way around.

Besides, since 2004 the North Carolina registration percentages have basically stayed the same in percentage of Democrats, but Republicans declined and independents rose. That may be a case of some Republicans changing to independent, but you would have to believe they remain loyal to Republicans, more often than not.

I'm not trying to deny Obama's lead, a big lead, in early voting, but I'm convinced it's not as large as most estimates. If you go back to 2004 at this point you can find old threads asserting huge Kerry advantage in North Carolina based on early voting, including a DailyKos diary in which one commenter said, "we could be looking at a Kerry landslide."

That state will be very tight.

____________________

boomshack:

look, people, which part of
"sometimes reality is just plain WRONG!"
don't you understand?!

____________________

Kile Thomson:

Paul:
This PPP poll has 21% AA. In 2004, vote turnout was 26% AA.

really ?

____________________

DecaturMark:

My question is "How reliable will the exit polls be next week?" Given that early voting is going Obama's way, they will probably be under-represented on election day. I didn't recall seeing anyone conducting exit polls when I voted last week. And the location I voted at was the only one in the county. Just curious.

____________________

fed:

PPP chaged some of the demographics. f.e : It is polling more men than they normally do

____________________

JCK:

Look, I think Obama has a good chance of winning NC. Let's just not overstate the case. This poll is not undercounting black support (those exit polls showing 26% are WRONG), nor has anyone provided any evidence that youth turnout it being underestimated.

____________________

Glasbak:

"Obama, the redistributer", and I suppose McCain's "Vlad the impal(in)er"!

____________________

Gary

This is my one reservation I have about this election. "we could be looking at a Kerry landslide."

I've sometimes wondered if the polls are overstating Obama's advantage. Seems to me that happened in 04 with Kerry.

____________________

AB:

As of 1:00 am Sunday morning:
1,192,156 absentee ballots cast
Dems 655,973 (55.02%)
Repubs 331,577 (27.81%)

Dem turnout (55.02%) is higher than statewide registration (45.64%)
Repub turnout (27.81%) is lower than statewide registration (32.05%)
Democrats continue to incrementally widen their advantage in registration (because you can still register and vote "one-stop").

While Republicans have an advantage in mail-in ballots (55.13 to 28.49%) these have slowed to a trickle. Meanwhile Dems have a 57.74% to 25.09% advantage in one-stop voting which is now more than 90 percent of the early voting.

The single biggest demographic of early voting is AA F dems who have now cast 182,410 one-stop votes.

The election in NC is very much going on right now, and it is very much going Obama's way.

____________________

Nowukkers:

"fed:
BREAKING NEWS
Russians are getting Lenin´s body ready to get it transported to the US, and desplay it in the capitol for the first month of Obama´s administation."

It will take the place of Stalin's body, which has been there for the past 7 years.

____________________

Divots:

Hey Working Class:

That was a country-wide poll..will give you more specifics later but CBC states that McCain has gain significant ground in the following states: NH, OH, COL, NV, VA, FLA and IA...

____________________

JCK:

Working class,

Kerry was consistently trailing in the national polls by a small margin. Obama is consistently leading the national polls by a larger margin.

If you don't believe me, check out the numbers on realclearpolitics.com. Their final polling averages nailed the outcome in every state except Wisconsin (which was very, very close).

____________________

Divots:

Hey Working Class:

That was a country-wide poll..will give you more specifics later but CBC states that McCain has gained significant ground in the following states: NH, OH, COL, NV, VA, FLA and IA...

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshack I thought you had "better things to do." LIKE HELP MCCAIN IN NC where he loses in EVERY POLL. BE GONE IDIOT!

____________________

Trosen:

On the flip side of that, in the primary, up until that night some polls and a lot of prognosticators had Hillary making it close or maybe even pulling an upset. And it was a blowout.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Divots CBS claims this based on what info? What poll?

____________________

mj1:

The one thing you guys are forgetting here is early voting. About 1 mil have already voted in NC. Did this poll ask the participants had they already voted? If not, these numbers are not worth a hill o'beans are they?

____________________

Divots

Scary indeed...

JCK

I believe you. Just a thought I had in my mind. Thanks.

____________________

tar_heel:

It's impossible to make that claim based on 1,000 interviews nationwide. That's an average of 20 per state, so the MOE state-by-state would appear to be huge.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

Gary

This is my one reservation I have about this election. "we could be looking at a Kerry landslide."

I've sometimes wondered if the polls are overstating Obama's advantage. Seems to me that happened in 04 with Kerry.


If anyone ever said that about Kerry in 2004, they certainly didn't say it in the last week of the campaign. Go check out the current EV map on electoral-vote.com, and then click the link that will take you to the map from the same point in the 2004 race. It's quite startling how much stronger a position Obama is in now than Kerry was then.

____________________

MichaelJason:

JCK,

You missed the boat. A lot of people, myself included... do not answer their home phones and do not hand out our cell phone numbers to people. You keep naysaying, but you are missing the point. A pollster will never be able to get a hold of me because I make sure they can't, so you can bet that a lot of people like me, are not being polled accurately enough.

____________________

Incumbent:

@divots

I smell BS...at least until we get a link to the poll and some crosstabs to look at.

____________________

Oh and Divots

It will be interesting to see what the Canadians have to say... I mean what changed in a week that caused this huge swing to McCain? Was Obama's ill grandmother the October surprise McCain was hoping for? Did getting off the campaign trail really knock Obama out? It'll be interesting to see what their rationale is. And by the way, I've never heard of a foreign nation taking a U.S. presidential poll and then the results given any validity. Is this normal?

____________________

sunnymi:

Voters in North Carolina Yet to Vote

Dem: 2159070 (43.35%)
Rep: 1649786 (33.12%)
Ind: 1168423 (23.46%)
------------------------------
Tot: 4980361 (100.00%)
------------------------------


As you can see from the above numbers despite a massive Democratic turnout in the early vote thus far there are still way more Democrats than Republicans yet to vote. This information coupled with the 62-33 advantage Obama shows in the PPP poll he needs only 43% of the remaining vote and there are enough Dems to get there. I know he will not win all the Democratic vote but there are a big number of Independents who have been in his favor thus far. If Obama and his GOTV team keep up their efforts I see no reason he cannot WIN the state.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

OBAMA LIKELY TO OUTPERFORM THE POLLS IN THE SOUTH...

Again, I come back to the AA turnout and assert that wins in North Carolina and Georgia are more than just unreachable mirages dancing tantalizingly in the horizon. For some historical perspective, check out Obama’s performance in NC, GA and VA during the primaries:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/dem_results.html

____________________

straight talk:

McCain is tightening in polls today! He regaining his support, but he is not taking any votes from Obama! I think nationally the best the McCain Camp can hope for is 4-5% nationally! If those national numbers climb again like last wk this thing will be over! State polls are showing that this race is not close at all! It is about state polls now. McCain is only up by 5% in AZ! WOW

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

Divots:
Hey Working Class:

"That was a country-wide poll..will give you more specifics later but CBC states that McCain has gained significant ground in the following states: NH, OH, COL, NV, VA, FLA and IA..."


Then they are seeing something no one else is, since none of the state polling coming out right now shows this. But no doubt this will make boomshak very happy.

____________________

AB:

AA voting so far in NC is 335,660 out of 1,192,156 -- 28.16% of early voters.
AA are 22% of registered voters in NC
In 2004 turnout was 64% of registered voters, 66% democrats, 69% repubs; only 59% of AAs.
Turnout among AAs is clearly going to be way over 59%. And in the end it will almost certainly be higher than 22%.

____________________

NW Patrick:

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate Kerry advantage? Per the polling average 1 day before the election Kerry trailed by 1.5%. Kerry lost by 1.5%. What are you talking about? If any of you watch ONE poll you are idiotic. This is why we have AVERAGING. Take the average and this is where the race most likely is on election day. It's a tried and true way to look at anything.
Obama, on average, today, is up about 7 pts.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

"ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate Kerry advantage? Per the polling average 1 day before the election Kerry trailed by 1.5%. Kerry lost by 1.5%. What are you talking about? If any of you watch ONE poll you are idiotic. This is why we have AVERAGING. Take the average and this is where the race most likely is on election day. It's a tried and true way to look at anything.
Obama, on average, today, is up about 7 pts"


What? What does this have to do with what I wrote?

____________________

sunnymi:


@Gary Kilbride, I do agree that the estimates are extremely in favor of Obama and that NC is a state that has had a Dem registration ID advantage but a big chunk of Democrats vote for Republican Presidents....When compared to 2004 the enthusiasm is much higher in the Democratic circles and there is every likelihood of it turning into votes at the ballot....All calculations point to the fact that if Obama can break 80% of Dem vote he wins the state, mainly because he is doing well with the Independents....In 2004 Kerry lost the Independent vote by a margin of 56-41 even though he got 84% of the Dem vote.

____________________

Trosen:

I looked all over the CBC website and I can't find a damn thing about this "poll."

____________________

JCK:

MichaelJason

Tom Jensen at PPP has also addressed this very point about Obama supporters being more difficult to reach than McCain supporters. They do several call backs to be sure that they're getting in touch with as many people as possible. And I'm sure they do some number adjustments to account for "missing voters" in their interviews. They may be calling cell phones as well, but I'm not really sure.

Just because you (and probably your friends) are difficult for pollsters to reach and are voting for Obama, don't assume the pollsters don't know that you exist; after all, you are a registered voter, so they have your name and address. I think you're giving these professionals too little credit in doing their jobs.

Finally, it personally pains me to see this line of reasoning. In 2004, the net was buzzing with Kerry supporters who convinced themselves that his young and cell phone only supporters were being systematically underpolled. There was no evidence provided to support this contention, only conjecture, and it proved dead wrong.

In this particular case you have not shown that PPP is underpolling any particular demographic groups. Indeed, in my quick look at their crosstabs, I
did not see the age breakdown in their sample. So neither you nor I can judge whether certain demographics are being underpolled here.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Former Sen. Larry Pressler (R-S.D.), who was the first Vietnam veteran to serve in the United States Senate, is the latest Republican to back Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign, Politico learned Sunday.

Pressler, who said that in addition to casting an absentee ballot for Obama he'd donated $500 to the Illinois senator's campaign, cited the Democrat's response to the financial crisis as the primary reason for his decision.

"I just got the feeling that Obama will be able to handle this financial crisis better, and I like his financial team of [former Treasury Secretary Robert] Rubin and [former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul] Volcker better," he said. By contrast, John McCain's "handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous."

____________________

NW Patrick:

The CBC supposed poll doesn't exist.

____________________

AdamSC:

You know I was thinking about something earlier, and since the end of Summer once people came to the conclusion that Barack Obama would be the democratic nominee the whole conversation has been about:

"How can John McCain win this election?"

First they thought by pulling off a shot from the hip with news generating excitement surrounding the Vice Presidential pick of Sarah Palin from Alaska would draw things even for awhile. It worked for about a week, during the convention was the only discernible 'lead' for John McCain. They're gambled has not only failed but it has backfired in a big way that has Independent voters flocking to Barack Obama.

The argument has been 'How can John McCain win this Election' but by this point of the campaign, that question is still being asked. Once a media darling himself, John McCain has been complaining about the 'liberal media' in it's unopposed support for Barack Obama.

History shows that in 1992 George H. Bush famously waived a bumper sticker around reading, "Annoy the Media/Re-elect George Bush".

Bob Dole also began to complain about the 'liberal media' when he began to lose.

There will NOT be a landslide like many of you people believe there will be but Obama will win with a 10-20 margin in the Electorate College over McCain.

____________________

laguna_b:

"fed:

BREAKING NEWS
Russians are getting Lenin´s body ready to get it transported to the US, and desplay it in the capitol for the first month of Obama´s administation.
"

They can lay it next to the badly preserved body John McCain!

____________________

fed:

Suffolk
FLORIDA Obama +5

____________________

TheCanadian:

Nothing on IPSOS website about this poll either the last write up they have is 50-42 from 10-22.

____________________

hou04:

What time does RAS release their state poll numbers to premium members today? 4PM ET?

____________________

NoMcSame:

Don't you guys get it? If you vote a "straight party ticket" in NC, a vote is NOT recorded for the presidential race. You have to check that box separately!! Through this ballot trick, record numbers of new voters who want to vote for all Democrats in NC will not have their votes count in the presidential race since they just assume, as any rational human being would, that a straight party ticket includes the presidential race. Even though it doesn't!! WE ARE SCREWED!!

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

NW Patrick:
"The CBC supposed poll doesn't exist."


Sometimes poll results are leaked before the actual poll is released, but if not it wouldn't be the first time I have heard someone citing a non-existent poll. I remember one guy a few weeks ago on another site claiming that he had exclusive information that all of the trackers for the next day were going to show a massive shift to McCain. He was very enthused in a boomshak sort of way, he even had exact numbers. It was all crap, of course.

____________________

Trosen:

AdamSC... I'll take it.

____________________

webim:

This is the rasmusen number of 6 pm .
Pehaps CBS know them


Divots:

Hey Working Class:

That was a country-wide poll..will give you more specifics later but CBC states that McCain has gain significant ground in the following states: NH, OH, COL, NV, VA, FLA and IA...

____________________

AB:

Gary,
Since Jan 1 registrations in NC have gone from 5,604,000 to 6,216,000 an increase of 612,000 new voters.
Dems have had 327,000 of these (2,511,000 to 2,838,000)
Repubs have had 71,000 of these (1,919,000 to 1,990,000)
Independents have had 210,000 of these (1,173,000 to 1,383,000)
I don't think that 327,000 democrats have registered with the intention of voting for the republican candidate.
All of this information (and more) is readily available on the NC sboe website.
Obama's ground game here is huge.

____________________

mrzookie:

IBD/TIPP O +2.8 (-0.4)

Screwed up poll, but at least they have the 18-24 going to Barack now.

____________________

laguna_b:

@noMcSame

"If you vote a "straight party ticket" in NC, a vote is NOT recorded for the presidential race. "

I can not beleive that Obama's GOTV team is not warning their voters about this....seems obvious...comments?

____________________

fed:

According to Suffolk, Obama is crushing McCain 60 to 40 in early voting

____________________

There is a weekly poll that is published by IPSOS. Latest poll (from 10-22) had:

Obama - 50%
McCain - 42%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/USElection/

____________________

TheCanadian:

Nothing on IPSOS website about this poll either the last write up they have is 50-42 from 10-22.

____________________

AB:

The first choice on the NC ballot is for president.
After that there is an opportunity to vote a straight party ticket for the remaining partisan contests.
After that all of the partisan contests (senate, congress, governor, state representative, county commissioners etc) are listed individually.
After that non-partisan contests (judges) are listed.

____________________

MisterMagoo:

@webim

CBC, not CBS...

____________________

hou04:

WOW... IBD/TIPP is so right-wing, and being very obvious about it... look what they say today:

"After seesawing between 3.2 and 3.9 points over the weekend, Obama's lead slipped to 2.8 Monday. Battleground also has Obama up 3, and other polls have tightened, including Rasmussen, Zogby and Gallup to 5".

Talking about cherry-picking polls. What they don't say that the same people do the Battleground poll that do IBD/TIPP.... and than they cherry-pick Gallup by only referring to the LV (traditional) model. This tells you that IBD/TIPP is using the 2004 model, too.

These guys are totally in tank with GOP and McCain. Giving them their talking points about surging.

____________________

straight talk:

Hey people Keep your eyes on the state polls! Do not get caught staring at national polls! It do not matter at this point nationally now! It is about state polls and the GOTV effort!Right now this race looks like it will be over before supper! Obama is crushing McCain in VA! And in NC Obama always does better that avg. in southern states.

____________________

Incumbent:

"Tito the Builder" Appears with Palin at VA Rally


Are you kidding me? This really is the worst run campaign in modern politics...

____________________

zotz:

Racism Will Not Save McCain

"The McCain campaign is so dumb that it bought into the press’s confirmation of its own prejudices. Even though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1.2 million in Pennsylvania (more than double the 2004 gap), even though Obama leads by double digits in almost every recent Pennsylvania poll and even though no national Republican ticket has won there since 1988, McCain started pouring his dwindling resources into the state this month. When the Democratic Representative John Murtha described his own western Pennsylvania district as a “racist area,” McCain feigned outrage and put down even more chips on the race card, calling the region the “most patriotic, most God-loving” part of America.

Well, there are racists in western Pennsylvania, as there are in most pockets of our country. But despite the months-long drumbeat of punditry to the contrary, there are not and have never been enough racists in 2008 to flip this election. In the latest New York Times/CBS News and Pew national polls, Obama is now pulling even with McCain among white men, a feat accomplished by no Democratic presidential candidate in three decades, Bill Clinton included. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey finds age doing more damage to McCain than race to Obama.

Nor is America’s remaining racism all that it once was, or that the McCain camp has been hoping for it to be. There are even “racists for Obama,” as Politico labels the phenomenon: White Americans whose distrust of black people in general crumbles when they actually get to know specific black people, including a presidential candidate who extends a genuine helping hand in a time of national crisis.

The original “racist for Obama,” after all, was none other than Obama’s own white, Kansas-raised grandmother, the gravely ill Madelyn Dunham, whom he visited in Hawaii on Friday. In “Dreams From My Father,” Obama wrote of how shaken he was when he learned of her overwhelming fear of black men on the street. But he weighed that reality against his unshakeable love for her and hers for him, and he got past it.

When Obama cited her in his speech on race last spring, the right immediately accused him of “throwing his grandmother under the bus.” But Obama’s critics were merely projecting their own racial hang-ups. He still loves his grandmother. He was merely speaking candidly and generously — like an adult — about the strange, complex and ever-changing racial dynamics of America. He hit a chord because many of us have had white relatives of our own like his, and we, too, see them in full and often love them anyway.

Such human nuances are lost on conservative warriors of the Allen-McCain-Palin ilk. They see all Americans as only white or black, as either us or them. The dirty little secret of such divisive politicians has always been that their rage toward the Others is exceeded only by their cynical conviction that Real Americans are a benighted bunch of easily manipulated bigots. This seems to be the election year when voters in most of our myriad Americas are figuring that out."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/opinion/26rich.html?em

____________________

Trosen:

hou..

Certain pollsters ad news organizations also have a vested interest in at least making it appear to be a very close race. More ratings/web hits = more $$. Money talks.

____________________

Dan:

wooo "Tito the Builder"!

I think he was in my LEGO set as a kid.

Can't wait for this stupid election to be over.


____________________

DecaturMark:

@Incumbent:
'"Tito the Builder" Appears with Palin at VA Rally'


I guess the McCain/Palin campaign couldn't get "The Village People" to stand on the same stage with them.

____________________

GregRD:

Have been reading your comments with interest...Just wanted to say that "Tito the builder" will change the race now and the tightening will finally begin ;-)

____________________

Trosen:

haha.. don't you feel bad for this guy? See it's this guy.. Joe the mutliple pro-franchise owning billionare.. that really gets hurt by Obama's tax plan.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/football/pro/dolphins/sfl-flspdolwayne27sboct27,0,1382404.story

____________________

hou04:

@ Trosen

I totally agree.

____________________

sunnymi:


Rasmussen: California Presidential Election
Obama Up By 27 in California

Obama - 61
McCain - 34

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_presidential_election


Has anyone else felt the same as me that Rasmussen shows unusually large margins for Obama in solid Blue states where as he shows his margins in the battlegrounds to be narrower than others..may be it is due to his single-day polling that he turns out such results!

____________________

Trosen:

Single-day polling is highly flawed. I more or less tune it out.

____________________

jeepdad:

Up 27 in California, wow.

So, if Obama is up that big in California, and probably up by a similar margin in NY, and he's either tied or ahead in the polls in mutliple red Bush states, how he is ahead only 5% nationally?

____________________

sunnymi:


Check this out:
Scene: McCain rally this morning in Kettering, Ohio

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/empty_space_at_a_mccain_rally.php

____________________

sunnymi:


A conservative's take on The Top Ten Reasons Conservatives Should Vote For Obama

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/the-top-ten-rea.html#more

____________________

Trosen:

jeepdad.. they poll relative across the board and generally try to hone in on "swing" states.

____________________

fed:

Stevens guilty on all 7 counts

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

Ted Stevens guilty on all 7 counts. Let's hope that's good enough for Begich.

____________________

straight talk:

McCain better have a GOTV plan! Judging from early voting reachin record levels! After Wensday national polls will open back up again!And people do not assume that McCain is Hillary Clinton! If she was runnin this race would be a dead heat instead of talking point! And thats all the McCain Camp has is talking points left! Meanwhile Obama is taking the national tV stage one more time with campaigning with Bill and a 30 min Tv spot on all the Major networks!What if he gets 50mil+ viewers? LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!

____________________

tar_heel:

Love it. It will a) make Begich a senator and b) hog the airwaves/Internet blogs, focusing attention on corruption in the GOP

____________________

laguna_b:

"
A conservative's take on The Top Ten Reasons Conservatives Should Vote For Obama"

Why is it that so many "conservatives" get mesmerized by the man instead of what they DO????

Reagan, Bush, Mccain.....all fiscal disasters.

Great reading!

____________________

Trosen:

Yea.. Stevens is toast. Palin was wise to more or less run like hell from Stevens over the past few months.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

hmmmm, since there should be jail time for Stevens, I would hope Alaskans do the right thing and run from him on election day.

____________________

RussTC3:

IBD/TIPP goes from McCain +11 among A18-24 to Obama +11 and Obama LOSES 0.4 points off his lead against McCain.

Heh. Hilarious.

____________________

iVote:

Dow drops more than 200 points, Ted Stevens (R) found guilty of corruption, sorry, but this Obama "spread the wealth" interview isn't going to be in the headlines. CNN is already labeling it as another McCain "attack".

____________________

laguna_b:

Suffolk Poll: Obama Ahead in Florida
A new Suffolk University poll in Florida finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 44%.

Key finding: "The poll also asked about all of those who waited in hours-long lines to vote early, and among early voters, Obama crushes McCain, 60 to 40 percent."

So much for McCain GOTV

____________________

faithhopelove:

THE GROUND GAME IN SWING STATES


CO:
50 Obama field offices
12 McCain field offices

FL:
58 Obama field offices
75 McCain field offices

GA:
7 Obama field offices
0 McCain field offices

IN:
42 Obama field offices
1 McCain field office

IA:
49 Obama field offices
16 McCain field offices

MO:
42 Obama field offices
16 field offices

NV:
15 Obama field offices
12 McCain field offices

NH:
19 Obama field offices
13 McCain field offices

NM:
38 Obama field offices
15 McCain field offices

NC:
50 Obama field offices
35 McCain field offices

OH:
81 Obama field offices
62 McCain field offices

PA:
78 Obama field offices
37 McCain field offices

VA:
72 Obama field offices
22 McCain field offices

____________________

NW Patrick:

A jury has found Sen. Ted Stevens guilty on all seven counts of making false statements on Senate disclosure forms. HAHAHAHA! Another THUGLICAN exposed!

____________________

chesirecat47:

@ Laguna, NoMcSame

Cool your jets about early voting in NC guys. Everyone is told about the ballot when we call them. Mailers clearly indicating the difference have been sent out. McCain will lose votes because of this too. It ain't gonna hurt nothing.

____________________

laguna_b:

Stevens verdict???? No such thing I can see though I hope you are right!

____________________

Trosen:

Russ.. a lot of pollsters are scrambling to make the polls look close while making the internals look reasonable. There are going to be some wild polls over the next few days. One I saw the other day with M+ in OH had him leading on the eocnomy by like 10 points.

____________________

Trosen:

laguna.. the early voting tabs in FL will be close because a lot of the old fart Republicans vote absentee. As for Stevens.. yes, it's done Guilty on all 7 counts. CNN has it on their ticker.

____________________

sunnymi:

Jury: Stevens guilty on seven counts

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14819.html

____________________

laguna_b:

WOOOOHOOOOOO! another Alaskan crook bites the dust.....60 is in sight.....I just read it on yahoo!

____________________

political_junki:

COOL:
Jury: Stevens guilty on seven counts

____________________

NW Patrick:

laguna_b do u have a link to the Suffolk FL poll? I don't even see it on their website! LOL

____________________

BrookLynda:

1. Dow closes down 200

+

2. Stevens found guilty

=

3. Another bad day for Grandpa and HockeyMILF

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Stevens found Guilty

Now that is an October Suprise I can get behind.

____________________

Trosen:

Lynda.. stocks tumbling again isn't good news for any of us. Most of us have have 401Ks, TIAA-CREF, etc. But it is indicative of the downward spiral we're in.. and the American public just isn't buying that it's all Barney Frank's fault.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Thanks Laguna! I love ya!

____________________

jeepdad:

Yep, just when McCain thinks he's getting traction with his socialist tapes attack, along comes Stevens to steal the headlines and remind everyone who fraudsters Republicans are. Hilarious.

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

Predictably, the Intrade price on Begich just soared almost 22%. Last trade was at 93. Stevens contracts are being offered at tiny numbers.

I'm lucky that trial was out there. Normally with a Democrat "leading" by small margin in Alaska polling I would be licking my chops to wager on the Republican. I was set to pounce on Stevens at plus price if the verdict had gone the other way.

____________________

OGLiberal:

The IBD poll is hillarious in it's insanity. Obama now has an 11pt lead with the 18-24 group, a 7pt lead with 25-44, tied among the 45-64 group, and only down 3pts in the 65+ group. But he's only ahead by 2.8.

He gets 87% of Dems v. 89% Republicans for McCain. He wins indies by 5pts, 44-39. But he's only ahead by 2.8.

He loses men by only 5 but leads among women by 9 (which seems low based on other polls)...and he's only ahead by 2.8.

It looks to me that a) they are using a 2004 model for party ID and turnout..or worse (eg - equal numbers for both parties) and b) they are heavily weighting their sample to a bunch of older, more conservative white folks who live in the suburbs. That's the only explanation. I mean, Obama down by 14 among suburban voters? (and last week, they had this gap at 20+) Only up by 1 in the Midwest?

The one other telling stat is the Jewish voters numbers. They have it split 61-33. Didn't Gallup just release a poll showing the Jewish voters split to be 74-22. That's a big difference. I'm not saying Gallup is correct but I think there have been more polls with numbers much closer to Gallup with this demographic.

____________________

hou04:

Breaking news at msnbc.com

"BREAKING NEWS: ATF says it disrupted skinhead plot in Tenn., Ark. to assassinate Obama"


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

____________________

Dan:

Can Stevens serve in the Senate after being found guilty? Are these Felony charges?

____________________

NW Patrick:

***BREAKING NEWS*** PALIN SONG JUST RELEASED. ***

http://politicalirony.com/2008/10/04/the-sarah-palin-song/

THIS IS F A N T A S T I C send it to 100 people!

____________________

This "Tito the Builder" is yet another cynical gimmick from McCain. Why's his 'name' Tito? Hell, why not call him "Bob the Builder"? Pandering to Hispanics who many of them work the labors? So sad.

I work construction and I work with a lot of Hispanics. I can assure you that none of them are buying this crap. Like 8-1 they are voting for Obama. "Latinos for Obama" stickers all over the place here.

____________________

shirefox:

NorthernObserver.. "A rally in Raleigh -- how alliterative! :-)"

That's awesome! :)

____________________

Trosen:

You see Senator Stevens, the American politcal system is a system of tubes.. and your career just got flushed.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Dan

According to the Politico article I read those are felony charges and Stevens could face up to a maximum of 5 years in prison.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14819.html

____________________

mirrorball:

@Dan: From what I've read, Stevens can continue to serve, but the Senate could also vote to expel him before his term expires in January. Only four times before has a senator been convicted while in office. None of those times was he expelled.

____________________

Disco Stu:

The Skinhead plot to assassinate Obama will SURELY be headlines tonight! (Ironically, this may be GOOD for Stevens...drowning him out a bit.)
I'm saddened, but not surprised at all to hear something like this. Assuming Obama does win, the secret service is going to be REAL busy investigating the death threats that will no doubt come from the KKK, Skinheads & other groups.

____________________

Trosen:

for old times' sake..

From Senator Stevens's greatest hits:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtOoQFa5ug8

____________________

political_junki:

Assassination plot targeting Obama disrupted
By LARA JAKES JORDAN – 13 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The ATF says it has broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree.
In court records unsealed Monday, agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target an unnamed by predominantly African-American high school by two neo-Nazi skinheads.

____________________

boomshack:

political_junki:

"COOL:
Jury: Stevens guilty on seven counts"

So what? If he denies it ever happened, it will go away. Look at Sarah Palin and the abuse of power. Besides, he hasn't done anything good other than "Cat's Cradle" and "Cat Scratch Fever".

____________________

Trosen:

hah.. ok shack.. not sure I get the Vonnegut/Ted Nugent reference though.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@political_junki

Fantastic just what the McCain campaign has been aiming for. No longer do we have to look for foreign terrorists McCain has them all home grown for us.

The problem with the campaign that McCain has been running is that it gets the lesser elements of our society all charged up and thinking that the Government is out to get them. I hate to say it but this won't be the last time we see headlines like this.

On the other hand good job to the ATF for sniffing this out before they went and killed a lot of innocent people.

____________________

Dan:

So he is convicted Of Felony charges, but our laws allow him to serve in the Senate.

That's pathetic when you consider that someone convicted as a Felon cannot vote in a general election.

I guess its ok to be a Felon as long as you're an old rich powerful white guy. But no not if you're just a regular citizen.

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
"So what? If he denies it ever happened"

I was just looking at it from a political perspective, he can deny it but news like this hardly helps you in an election. We can agree on this, cant we?

____________________

"ATF breaks up skinhead plot to assassinate Obama."

McCain camp:

"See, Republicans keep us all safer."

____________________

s.b.:

The new Ipsos poll should come out tomorrow, but it should still be polling tonight, so I don't know how this can be a leak, unless they polled one day sooner this week. We'll see. AP's new poll should come out tomorrow as well.

____________________

Trosen:

This is it guys. This is basically the white flag of surrender. I knew when they went as far as to try to dig this up, it was basically curtains for McCain and the GOP.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Wright_TV.html

____________________

laguna_b:

@NW_Patrick

http://politicalirony.com/2008/10/04/the-sarah-palin-song/

Thanks....VERY CUTE! and funny!

____________________

Knyght:

I believe Stevens can technically serve in the Senate after being convicted, but if he does so, the rest of the Senate will most likely call for his expulsion. That's what they've done in similar cases where the convict-ee hasn't resigned.

Not sure what the procedure is for filling a vacant seat in that case. Perhaps the Governor (i.e., Palin) appoints someone?

That assumes that he stays in the race and is reelected of course.

____________________

Mister H.:

"Tito the Builder" Appears with Palin at VA Rally


Let me guess: His brother "Bob" was unavailable?

____________________

Trosen:

Might I add, lovely timing too, right on the heels of the fake police report chick and the ATF bust of the assassination/racial killing spree plan. Race-baiting and racial conflict (whether they are actively stoking it or not) is the GOP's last hope.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Wright_TV.html

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Trosen:

"hah.. ok shack.. not sure I get the Vonnegut/Ted Nugent reference though."

not sure (far be it for me to interpret boom), but it's prob. a Cat Stevens reference rather than Vonnegut. That way, you get cat STEVENS and TED nugent and two cats to spare.

all imho. boom?

____________________

laguna_b:

October surprise.....Stevens resigns, Palin resigns, Palin successor names HER to the Senate....but not sure if she is then part of the ticket for Senate 2008.....interstingturn if it happens....one more thing to distract from teh "message" for Mccain and further reminder how he screwed up choosing her.

____________________

Trosen:

ahhh MN.. you're right.. duhh. (But Cat's in the Cradle was originally by Harry Chapin, no?)

laguna... no chance.

____________________

mirrorball:

Palin can't name a replacement. Alaska voters changed the law a couple of years ago because of former Gov. Frank Murkowski's decision to appoint his daughter Lisa Murkowsi to his Senate senate seat. Under the new law, the seat remains vacant until the next general or special election.

____________________

TuftsPat:

John McCain NEEDS to send a message to his party that although those skinheads are not representative of his supporters, any insinuation of physical brutality or threats towards anyone is not acceptable and is against the spirit of our nation as a whole.

____________________

TuftsPat

McCain will do that but it will be half-hearted I'm sure.

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand:

is it just me, or does this "Foiled plot to assassinate Obama" seem like a ruse to establish likely suspects (skinheads) for some more sophisticated administration-directed assassination effort? I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but the timing of this seems strange. If the neocons were going to try to assassinate Obama, they'd want everyone to think it was done by a bunch of whacked out skinheads...

____________________

mrzookie:

ABC/WPO Tracking LV - O 52 M45 (NC)

____________________

fed:

check out the new Louisiana early voting numbers
Dem
57.2%
Rep
30.2%
None
12.6%
Race

White
64.4%
Black
32.8%
Other
2.8%
Sex

Men
44.6%
Women

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand

Maybe. Also, just to expound on what you're saying. Maybe this was a sort of 'first test' to see how it's taken. Then later if he's assassinated, they can say "This is terrible but we know there are people out there who dislike Obama and black people so much that they'd do something like this... Just a terrible national tragedy."

____________________

RussTC3:

ABC/Washington Post

LV (n/c)
Obama 52 (52)
McCain 45 (45)

RV (McCain -1)
Obama 51 (51)
McCain 43 (44)

____________________

RussTC3:

Also, looks like the Party ID in the ABC/WP poll narrowed from Dem +7 to Dem +5, yet Obama held steady.

____________________

Pollster

Why do you put up a link on the top right there that says "Karl Rove Electoral Map"?

It's not really 'his' map. It's a map he created based on the 14 day average of polls. Your headline makes it sound like it's his opinion.

____________________

straight talk:

That's Rove's Map. It is his Company! He supports McCain, but he knows that McCain is going to lose! All The repubs can do is voter suppress now! McCain is in big trouble! LANDSLIDE ALERT!

____________________

Dana Adini:

fedwhere did you get these numbers?

____________________

Dana Adini:

Fed,

where did you get those numbers?

____________________

No it's not. It says right at the top of the map that it's a "14 day average of public polls"

I'm not saying Obama isn't going to win. I believe he is baby! But I'm saying Pollster's headline is misleading.

____________________

straight talk:

Well Rove has his own map, because he was on fox news sunday explaining this exact map! He had Obama up 300+ EV! Rove was even suggesting that the Obama Campaign is using his strategy. But who cares! Virginia is going Blue! THis race is over Folks! Landslide Alert!!! Obama will be up +5 in FLorida!

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR