Pollster.com

First...

May I be the FIRST to say YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

no more owie for mccain. he can't feel it. he's going into shock.

Again, we don't want to get over-optimistic with four weeks to go, but are we actually getting close to landslide territory?

Bad news for McCain. If he's down 6 points in NC, 10 points in VA doesn't seem like so much of stretch.

Boomshak will have shat upon seeing this. Booyakasha. Nice prediction about the DJIA falling by 1000, big guy.

That's what I'm talking about!!

Blue Baby Blue!!

McCain down by double digits in western NC? I doubt that. But I don't doubt Obama is ahead. The dude is on the TV every 10 minutes. It's really over the top.

This one hurts the Boomshak.

I am so pleased to see Mrs Dole in so much trouble. Hopefully we can get to 60.

Cautiously I say LANDSLIDE!!! But I KNOW it is NEVER over until it is over. Then the Democrats have to resist the temptation to be idiots like thier giddy Republican predecessors who got us into this mess!

Only 15% urban, vast majority over 30, 60% have economy as top issue. This is dire for McCain.

@Boomshak

Care to comment on the internals you know give us a critical and expert view?

Do not get complacent! We have to get the vote out and actually cast our vote! I have no doubt that if we all do our part actually Obama will have 1-2% more than expected.
Let's finish the job!
Atough this is a Dem pollster, NC is definetively in play. And that is big trouble for Uncle Fester... Bush won this state by 20

My fellow republicans, this is time for desperation. Let`s throw the kitchen sink to see if anything can stick.

The best part about all these polls is that, Little miss ignorance as VP is hurting McSame in almost all important states. OH, PA and now NC. Love it. American people regardless of party affiliation are too smart to fall for that hack

GUYS!!

I just want to make sure I'm not being overly optimistic because I feel very, very good. I have been working hard to stifle my optimism or risk "jinxing" the election...

...but I just can't help feeling good about this one. I try to talk myself down and say, "don't get excited," and "still a lot of time," and "it's not over yet" but my gut feeling always gets the best of me. I see no way that Obama loses this one. Am I being overly optimistic or cautiously realistic?

@muckinello

Agreed....complacency KILLS.....deliver the votes not the polls! We have only our Constitution and our Nation to lose.....

Americans are finally saying lets try someone with "smarts: for a change!

I find it interesting that on Saturday, the McCain Campaign not so subtly announced that it was going to go after Obama on the Ayres association. Then every right wing news organization has a hit piece about that very subject in their Monday edition. I guess that it is McCain's way of plausible deniablity. Because any coordination from the campaign with outside groups is strictly against FEC rules. But you know that McCain gave these right wing media outlets a heads up. It is sad really. MCCain can't win and wants to take the country down with him.

The conservatives are out in full force today, fangs bared, odor overwhelming, spewing horse manure laced with super glue everywhere!

We have them cornered! FINISH THEM!

Wow! Maybe I should start reading this now: "Imagining America in 2033: How the Country Put Itself Together after Bush" by Herbert Gans. I was just too afraid to do so for fear of jinxing this thing. I still think I'll wait and then read it over Christmas if Obama wins. It will feel good.

@laguna

Well said.. but as my older boss used to say... well done is better than well said! So, let's go out and take our country back! Let's make sure there is no margin of error and that no single state or county will determine the election! I will do my part here in PA!

What is important is that our real work will start after that. We will all have to come together and raise this Country back to the place she deserves!

WOW...you think most people missed the Wall Street Crash? Talk about displacing Ayers!

What a horrible day for McCain. He is going to be real mad in tomorrow's debate. I can't wait for the RAS polls out today for the battleground states to confirm some of this. McCain/Palin are in a bad way. Time to rally around the democrats and hope they don't f'up as bad as the republicans did.

RaleighNC you don't get it. The media is a reflection of America and AMERICA is sick and tired of the BS. You're party is done.

btw.. this poll is not coming out yet on RCP.. just to confirm their bias!

@RaleighNC

I think you underestimate the power of Buncombe county

-Carrboro, NC

Look at the number on the map! is that 275 on the blue side?

OMG I am having so much fun posting on hedgehogreport.com They are BOILING!

My future is what I have been training for...Alternative Energy....I have spent so much time at VC Panels, Stanford Symposiums, Berkeley etc etc....all targeting the Energy Future for America. It is time to rebuild American Energy infrastructure and that will be the BOOM of the next 20 years. Grampa can't even read his email on a PC...pretty lame for a 21st Century leader.
The USA has less than a 5 years supply of oil drilling everywhere based on our current consumption rate...what does that tell you about McCain?

No landslides.... As another poster mentioned on another thread and as Bill Clinton stated on Larry King, because the nation have such a strong partisan divide.
-------

Last three PPP polls:

PPP (D) 10/4-5/08 1202 LV
McCain 44 Obama 50 Barr 2 Undecided 4

PPP (D) 9/28-29/08 1041 LV
McCain 45 Obama 47 Barr 3 Undecided 5

PPP (D) 9/17-19/08 1060 LV
McCain 46 Obama 46 Barr 5 Undecided 4

So it lookes like Obama +4 points Sept 29, while McCain -2 and Barr -3 with undecided holding. It also looks like Barr's loss contributed to Obama's gain.

Evidence still says tight race/tossup state.

@thoughtful

I noticed that too, but what state did we pick up? I'm assuming NC but it's still yellow and I think it would be way too early to paint it blue especially since NH has had better polls and is still yellow.

new CNN National Poll..

Obama 53, McCain 45

where did the blue = 275 come from? What changed.

@NWPatrick I'll be joing you at hegehogreport soon, thanks for the heads-up.

@KipTin

The trend is our friend...anyway you read it is is NOT going towards McCain.

The McSame campaign is in totally panic mode!!!

Do you want my opinion about these new attacks? I don't think they will be as effective as McCain will like them. It is just like "telling a joke," people are more receptive the first time. Look at Palin's "sucess" during the debate vs. her success during the Republican convention. The same Palin that showed up at the convention was the one at the debate; however, people didn't react the same way. There was no "novelty." The only ones energized by it were those on board with McCain.

Did you know people are researching McCain's Keating Economics? it is #2 in searches in google, Obama's Ayers? #38. See? People didn't know about the Keating Five. This story has the "new factor."

north carolina? what the hell? this race is over, obama can just chill now and watch the dirty old weasel through tirade after tirade!

nothing changed in the EV. It's a mistake cause it doesn't add up to 538.

KipTin

Obama will win 390+ EVs

I don't think the map is working properly but Virginia and New Hampshire should be blue.

Rasmussen should be very interesting at 6pm EST.

Last CNN/Opinion Research poll was Obama 51, McCain 47. So it went from Obama +4 to Obama +8.

According to Time, a new poll from NBC/WSJ will be released this evening at 6:30pm.

It is even worse for McCain than the poll indicates since AA's are underrepresented (21% in the poll, 26% of voters in 2004). Partisan break down is pretty much in line with NC SoS voter ID statistics.

Based on the under sampling of AA's, I would guess that Obama is up by 7 or 8 percent, and Kagan is up by 10 or 11 percent.

McCain is essentially done.

where did the blue = 275 come from? What changed.

Good question. That total is more than 538 electoral votes. In fact, it's 15 over. So I guess NC was supposed to change?

@carl29

I have tried several times today to get to the Keating5 site but it is so slow. Lotsa traffic perhaps? Obama wins again! Man McCain is going to blow a blood vessle.

What does it say about McCain as a candidate when he is fighting for a state that Bush won by 12% in 2004? :-)

163 + 115 + 275 = 553 there is a bug somewhere :)

@Kiptin

As a Western North Carolinian, I can safely attest to the fact that Sen. Obama has a double-digit lead in the West. 28,000 in Asheville yesterday (8K more than Charlotte) signify that the dynamics of the region are rapidly changing.

What are your aliases in hedgehog report?

Hmmm...

(NC(O+6))+(GA(O-6))=(SC(O))?

@Karma

Nyuk, Nyuk. Nice one. Buncombe is one of the larger counties, as I recall. A lot of history is made there.

Must have been MN turning blue that pushed Big O into the win zone?

Frankly I don't even know why McP"al"inocchio keeps pushing. Their slogan is "country first", right? so why he doesn't drop out of the presidential race and endorse Barack Obama for the good of this country

>>>163 + 115 + 275 = 553 there is a bug somewhere :)

Republicans CREATING more EVs to try to beat Obama the only way they can!

haha.. no. SC is not going blue.

richieBr

The exit poll of 26% is generally reckoned to be an outlier.

The AA registered voter population is/was about 20%

New CNN/ORC poll of likely voters:

Obama 53%
McCain 45%

I have been actively and professionally involved in energy issues with a focus on alternative energy since the Carter administration.

I am impressed with T. Boone Pickens energy solution outreach to Americans. Ironically, Texas is now the largest supplier of wind power and it was George W. Bush who helped make that happen.

I applaud McCain's long term stance against corn ethanol and subsidizing Big Ag. I support McCain's all-of-the-above (except corn ethanol) energy plan. I think he was brilliant and correct in framing energy as a security as well as an economic issue.

CNN has Obama 53 and McCain 45 national

What's up with the map?

From CNN:
" The financial crisis also appears to be contributing to Obama's increased lead in the poll. Sixty-eight percent are confident in the Democratic presidential nominee's ability to handle the financial crisis, 18 points ahead of McCain, and 42 points ahead of President Bush.

More Americans appear to have an unfavorable view of Gov. Sarah Palin, and that may also be helping Obama in the fight for the presidency.

Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said."

Rasmussen polls will be out at 6pm EST for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia.

Pedal to the metal, baby! This is no time to let up. We have the opportunity to make this election a rout, to splinter the Republican coalition and remake the political landscape. It's going to happen, too. Democrats are juiced, and the better the polls look the more juiced they get. Doorknocking in my neighborhood in St. Paul, it's now easily 8 in 10 for Obama and, smelling history, 1 in 10 want to volunteer on the campaign. We're riding a tidal wave. The Repugs are dour and demoralized; they can't even make eye contact.

Obama is the new FDR, building the majority Democratic coalition for the next generation.

@Kiptin

I am in complete agreement with you as I read it. (Absolutely amazing) All that being said, where was John Mccain in December 2007 when the Energy Bill filibuster vote failed 40-59 missing AWOL McCain???? This was only 1 of EIGHT votes in one year where he failed to support ITCs for renewables.

As I see it you should get on the Obama bandwagon with Gore and I.

McCain is busy in Iowa or relaxing on the weekends, while Obama and SURROGATES all over NC and VA. I don't understand this strategy at all. My mom told me the other night that all they see back in NC is Obama, Obama, Obama. Now this poll makes a good point in stating Obama's appearance in Asheville might have an effect, and that's it's purpose.

I still believe that if McCain campaign's wake up they will still pull out NC and Va. So Palin is in NC tomorrow, and McCain and Palin are in Va on Monday. I wonder what McCain's schedule is for this weekend?

Another thing McCain has to remember, NC and Va conservatives are not that thrilled with him in the voice place, and for him to ignore them completely is beyond dumb.

Laguna_B relating to alternative energy. I have a small stock position in AMSC (got killed today; always buy more). It is involved with wind power. I would think if anyone has investment money on hand and believes Obama will win. If you are willing look at long term investing. Investing in solar and wind power would not be a bad investment right now. Especially since congress passed those wind/solar power tax credits in bailout bill.

Palin in North Carolina????
Q: What are you going to do to recover our economy and 401k.
A: Well by golly-gee we are going to get rid of Wall Street corruption and Joe six pack will get us going again drilling oil.

Result: Monday 13 NC O55% M35% Barr10%

I'm not getting McCain's strategy either, he's losing key states that traditionally go GOP due to lack of effort there. Unless he miraculously wins just about every tossup state, his prospects look very grim.

I will say for the third time today that this is the one aspect of this election that is totally dismissed! It will be a landslide!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110971/Young-Voters-08-ProObama-Mindful-Outcome.aspx

I believe this poll. McCain isn't doing DICK in this state. I never see hs ads on TV or on the radio.

Obozo is on constantly.

McCain is punting on first down. Pisses me off. I wish we had Romney.

@TJIRISH34

We are running out of fossil fuels, oil & gas. The end is in sight....then next technology will be electrification of damn near everything. Wind, Solar, Geothermal, some full cycle nuclear (we are running out of that too), these are the growth areas of the future.
Like you said we FINALLY got the renewables ITCs passed and next year should be a BIG one with that out of the way.
Oil is WAY too valuable to burn.....

Laguna_b:

That's funny. But from what I hear, people in Va and NC who don't really trust Obama, and are considering voting for McCain...feel like McCain is ignoring them. It's no accident that the polling is showing Obama ahead in the two states, his surrogates or Obama himself have been campaigning relentlessly in the two states.

boomshak cmon' man. The TOLLERANT Evangelicals wouldn't have it. Romney would be losing by the SAME margin. John McCain was probably the ONLY candidate that could keep this within 10 points.

LOOKS LIKE OBAMA COULD WIN THIS HUGE:

I hope like hell his actions are as good as his words. He has already said he might not be able to do any of the programs he has promised or his tax cut as promised.

Does this joker ever stick with ANYTHING he promises?

I've never seen a politician before who can just totally change what he stands for on a whim and he NEVER gets called on it by the press or his supporters.

Anyway, democrats are poised to take command of a sinking ship 5 minutes after it hit the iceberg.

Good luck with that. We'll be back, younger, faster and stronger to pick up what's left.

@Batony

people in Va and NC are less likely to have health insurance and like eveyone, deeply affected by the horrific economic news of late....Palin will rattle off her vapid litany and not address any of what these people really care about...

I am a beleiver that there is some intellectual justification for both sides, but McCain chose someone that even conservatives gringe as hearing.

Perhaps ignoring them is better than insulting thier intelligence....

If Romney were a Baptist and picked Bloomberg as his running mate, we would be ahead by 15-20 points here. Too bad our best candidate had to come from a religion out of the mainstream.

Your supporting that politician, flip flopper McCain. He's flip flopped and lied more than anyone else, easily.

boomshak please do come back younger. The damn convention looked like an AARP event. It doesn't represent America.

@boomshak

>>Does this joker ever stick with ANYTHING he promises?

Obama wasn't expecting the Republicans to completely empty the till as they went out the door.

I hope this pattern holds. Election night will be magic.

@Boom:
"Does this joker ever stick with ANYTHING he promises?"

It's called pragmatism. He understands that outside events deem that he change his policies. It is what everyone would hope for in a leader.

Unfortunately, our "us against them" mentality in domestic politics makes those who look at an issue with a bit a responsibility are lambasted as flip floppers.

Sad.

Not posted yet but

CNN poll

Obama 53
McFool 45

Admittedly I am someone who is looking for every reason not to vote for Obama...but his campaign has been tremendous. For example, instead of preparing for his debates in Chicago or DC, he prepared in Florida and NC where he could sneak in a rally in each BATTLEGROUND state. Meanwhile, McCain suspends his campaign, threatens to cancel the 1st debate, goes to Washington to "solve" the crisis for the first debate, (which is really one of the main reasons his poll numbers died) goes all the way back to Arizona for the second debate, and finally makes an appearance in New Mexico. I wonder who forced him to do that. Wow.

Yes, Boom, I'd rather have a president who doesn't change his plans based on current events, or as the situation requires.

You know, a guy who believes the same thing on Wednesday as his did on Monday, regardless of what happened on Tuesday.

Energy Independence:

Energy Central (an energy website) estimated that for $1.3 Trillion, we could have sufficient electricity generation AND transmission to cover 100% of our needs with renewables.

Iraq War: ~$700B
Bailout: ~$700B
Total ~$1.4B FOR NOTHING!

@Batony: "Admittedly I am someone who is looking for every reason not to vote for Obama"

I'm curious as to why that is the case...

Batony....come! Come to Barack! You will be so much happier for it! ;)
(at least you will cheer the polls)

Rasmussen polls will be out at 6pm EST for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia.

This reminds me: Has any done any new polling in West Virginia? Seems like they've been getting no love lately.

Batony

There is nothing wrong with having a "smart" President! Come on, and give it a try!

Laguna_B:

No matter what you say about Palin, she is a plus for the McCain campaign. Her drawing ability as evidence by today, 20,000 in Clearwater, FL, and another 9,000 in Ft. Myers. What she lacks in specifics, she makes up in likeability, believability and the belief of voters that she "understands" what they are going through. Look, we are political junkies...we are abnormal, most people don't believe Obama or McCain will do half the things they say. If I were the McCain Camp I would stick Palin in Colorado, in between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in PA, Ohio, FL and NC from now until election day. McCain can handle Wis, Va, NH, NM and NV without her.....

With this poll, Obama has been tied or ahead in 6 of the last 7 NC polls. Apparently, McCain's internal polling also shows the race very close there, as he has Palin visiting the state tomorrow. Obama is in NC today; his wife has a campaign event there tomorrow.

Currently, NC-based PPP shows Obama up 6 points over McCain (in a poll with a huge sample). PPP's trend over the last 3 polls has shown a tie, a 2-point Obama lead, and now a 6-point Obama lead. Overall, recent NC polls have shown a tie, another tie, Obama +2, McCain +3, Obama +2, Obama +3, and Obama +6. NC is trending away from McCain and toward Obama.

Polls taken before the NC primary tended to under-estimate Obama's support--only Zogby(!) got the final margin of victory correct. PPP was the next most accurate, under-estimating Obama's margin of victory by just 4 points.

This PPP poll's narrative says that the key to Obama's lead is the coming home of his Democratic base:

"Last week Obama led by two points. He is now winning 82% of the Democratic vote,
compared to just 74% a week ago. For most of the general election his share of his own
party’s vote has hovered in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. 'If 80% or more of Democrats in North Carolina really end up voting for Obama then John McCain is finished here,' said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling."

Remarkably, despite showing Obama up 6 in NC, this poll appears to have under-sampled women. Also, record-high youth and African-American turnout are probable in NC. See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/NC/P/00/epolls.0.html

Another recent poll, this one of NC's 8th district, has Obama leading there by 12 points. Bush won the district by 9 points in 2004. See:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3265

In order to hold NC, McCain will most likely need to spend considerable time and money in the state.

Linky to CNN poll:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

O 53
McStinker 45

@Batony

Sarah's veneer wears thinner and thinner....read what I posted from CNN. She started a rock star and will end up like Britney Spears....the mean life of a fresh face is about 30 days before people realize they aren't the second coming. She did energize the most backward element that Mccain already had by default. But clearly, those who analyse her any deeper are drawing away....she will be spent meat by Nov. 4 and a severe liability. I would not be surprised to see greater financial termoil in the markets the next few days, including a 1000 point drop, perhaps even tomorrow. People will want more than cute and folksy answers to thier problems....they don't have the luxury of "cute".

Wow.

The Hedgehog Report really does make boomshak look like Jimmy Carter.

A whole congregation of nutcases. It's actually kind of scary.

Pion:

For some reason for all his talk, and so on, I just believe Obama is the typical politician controlled by staffers. I wish he would have waited, that way he could have some seasoning and be his own man. Believe me if were any other Republican besides McCain, I wouldn't even be paying attention to this election. A lot of independents(like me) and Democrats, really like McCain.

It's beautiful ...sigh.

RCP Average 09/27 - 10/05 -- 49.7 43.3 Obama +6.4
CNN 10/03 - 10/05 694 LV 53 45 Obama +8
Gallup Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 2744 RV 50 42 Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 3000 LV 52 44 Obama +8
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 909 LV 47 41 Obama +6
Democracy Corps (D) 10/01 - 10/05 1000 LV 49 46 Obama +3
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/30 - 10/05 800 LV 50 43 Obama +7
Marist 09/28 - 09/30 943 LV 49 44 Obama +5
CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 769 LV 50 41 Obama +9
Associated Press/GfK 09/27 - 09/30 808 LV 48 41 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 09/27 - 09/29 916 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/27 - 09/29 1181 LV 49 43 Obama +6

@Batony

I really think that if you'd give Obama a chance you might be very pleasantly surprised. The guy knows how to reach out to people, Batony. He has a beautiful vision for America, a vision that has never wavered. And with him as President, we would truly be on our way to earning the respect of the world back.

@NW

Were you in the Hedgehog Report. Man, I feel like I need a shower after posting a couple comments that forum is so dirty.

(my first posting here - "hi" to all of you)

Bookshak:

You said: "If Romney were a Baptist and picked Bloomberg as his running mate, we would be ahead by 15-20 points here. Too bad our best candidate had to come from a religion out of the mainstream."

Well, this is precisely what is wrong with the Republican party. My husband and I are ardent supporters of Obama, but we are voting against our financial interest since our income/asset bracket is such that not only we but also our children (inheritance etc) will do much better under the republican admin financially.

You know why in spite of this immediate personal interest, we vote for Democrats? I just can't STAND the the intolerant religious zealots that are calling all the shots in the Republican party.

I would gladly vote for the likes of Bloomberg and Giuliani - the socially moderate Republicans. However, your Republican base controlled by religious zealots will NEVER allow them to win the Republican primary.

Even if my family have to pay more income taxes and give up more of our children's inheritance to the estate tax, I would much prefer this over living in a society whose agenda is controlled by the intolerant bunch who think ignorant and ill educated light weight who demeans the vice presidential debate by winking to and flirting with the public on the debate podium is not only acceptable but laudable.

My teenage son wants to be a politician when he grows up. He is on the conservative side with regard to national security, etc. However, he in no way passes a fundamentalist's check list for a national candidate. He asked me whether he should be a Republican or democrat. I told him Democrat is a better bet. Why? Within a democratic tent, you can be socially conservative and still find a place unless you are a zealot (he is not), but in the Republican party, one way or the other, you have to cater to the basest element of the party which consists of zealots and nutjobs.

Just look at McCain. In my heart, I don't think he is an intolerant zealot. I believe he is a socially moderate, honest guy. However, in the process of winning the Republican primary and with the need to "shore up the base", he had no choice but to venture into where he has never gone to and never would have gone willingly. I don't think he would have ever selected the walking disater of a VP if he was not forced to cater to the fundies in his party.

After after this election, the real "silment majority" of a reasonable and thinking republicans should ponder on this issue and find a way to rescue their party from the worst part of their tradition.

Game Over

@liz

Welcome to Pollster :)

Laguna_b:

You are correct when you say she energizes the most "backward element", but incorrect when you say McCain "had by default". Conversatives can't stand John McCain. They make the difference in Co, Va and NC. And definitely help in Ohio and Central PA. Every appearance there is an overflow crowd, enthusiasm, and again unfortunate most people are not political junkies like we are....and again, most people don't believe McCain or Obama will do what they say.

@Batony

I agree mostly with you....but of course winning the indies is where victory lies...

@liz

Very cool and welcome.....

Why is Obama going negative? Someone who is smart explain that to me? The Keating Five involved 4 other Dems including the popular John Glenn in OH. Now you better believe Rev. Wright will come into play. And the bad thing about Rev. Wright, is those damn tapes....if they didn't exist, I don't think it would hurt Obama, but those damn tapes.

Sorta like those damn tapes of Palin giving a speech to the Alaska Independence Party, her husband's being a member of the party, and those darn pesky tapes of their founder railing about the fires of hell couldn't melt the icebergs that are his hatred for America.

Batony, I forgot to add in my previous post that that is what you call White Privilege. It's ok for Palin to be associated with the Alaska Independence Party and it's looked at as 'Oh that rugged outdoorsy woman.' But Obama's pastor is considered, Obama isn't like us. He's different than us and looks at America different than us. HELLO! The AIP hates America and wants to secede from America. But yea, those damn tapes of Rev. Wright. That Obama character he sure is 'different' from the rest of us.

It doesn't matter if one is black or white, it's still White Privilege in this country when you see that double standard being bandied about.

Batony big difference. Keating five INVOLVED MCCAIN DIRECTLY and it's in perfect line with the economic story of today. Wright? Obama's former pastor. No one cares anymore.

wiw check out rasmussen polls. I guess Mccain wont be happy

kerrchdavis I was there! I feel dirty too.

OMG! Rasmussen
Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45
Florida: Obama 52, McCain 45
Missouri: Obama 50, McCain 47
Ohio: McCain 48, Obama 47
Virginia: Obama 50, McCain 48

Say goodnight!

Ohio? Based on that poll, they are weird ;)

@batony

I too once had some time for McCain. His sleazy campaign and picking Palin has totally cured me of that.

7 points in Fl, if Obama holds them, its over

Batony:

The Keating 5 is not a partisan issue. Only one of them is currently a presidential candidate. In case you haven't realized, it's the GOP guy. The others all deserved the punishments they received. And, in my view, it prohibited their presidential candidacy, as it did John Glenn's. So now, what is your point?

Rasmussen

CO: O(51) M(45) last week: O(49) M(48) +5 O
FL: O(52) M(45) last week: O(47) M(47) +7 O
MO: O(50) M(47) September: O(46) M(51) +8 O
OH: O(47) M(48) last week: O(46) M(47) --
VA: O(50) M(48) last week: O(50) M(47) +1 M

Here are the latest Fox News/Rasmussen polls

Note: All prior results are from Fox News/Rasmussen polls, with the exception of Missouri, which was not commissioned along with Fox News.

Colorado | 10/5 (9/28)
Obama 51 (49)
McCain 45 (48)

Florida | 10/5 (9/28)
McCain 52 (47)
Obama 45 (47)

Missouri | 10/5 (9/11)
Obama 50 (46)
McCain 47 (51)

Ohio | 10/5 (9/28)
McCain 48 (48)
Obama 47 (47)

Virginia | 10/5 (9/28)
Obama 50 (50)
McCain 48 (47)

The Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls have historically favored McCain more so than the Rasmussen only polls.

Rasmussen has always defended OH for the republicans

Oops, posted the Florida numbers wrong:

Florida | 10/5 (9/28)
Obama 52 (47)
McCain 45 (47)

I have lived in NC all my life, have voted mostly democrat, but sometimes otherwise. My uncle was a Klansman and my parents were George Wallace supporters (they're really very good people and have loosened up a lot over the years, thanks). I was talking to them about the election last night, and they're going for Obama. My father somewhat grudgingly, he just can't quite visualize a black president. But still... Just about fainted.

It's going to be close in NC, but I can totally believe Obama might take it. All the energy is with the Dems, all the talk is about Obama. This could be hell freezing over.

Missouri is the big number.

With a good show tomorrow night. Obama is on his way to 390 EVs

Nick_ Socal...do me a favor, don't assume you know my race or ethnic background. I will leave it at that.

And please don't give me that white privilege BS. Don't make this election about race...

@Batony:

In my case, I also had a soft spot for McCain (I know---that's a cliche). However, whenever I considered (very briefly) voting for McCain I was repulsed by his history (in particular on choice, his stand on gay marriage, torture---where he totally bailed by allowing the President to decide what is torture---and his poor judgment on Iraq. More recently, he has been so gimmicky that I feel embarrassed that I ever considered him, even for a few minutes.

On the other hand, as you pointed out, Obama has run a great campaign. I read both his books and listened to all his major speeches (the ones he wrote himself), and I became convinced that he is the real deal. I don't know how much of his agenda he will be able to accomplish in light of the economic meltdown; I would be really surprised if we don't enter a lengthy recessionary period forcing his priorities to change.

Going over Obama's history as I pieced it together from his writings, speeches and the many profiles written about him in various news outlets has led me to conclude that he has developed a clear governing philosophy which I would describe as follows:

1) The free market is crucial to economic development and low taxes for the middle class are particularly crucial since the middle class is the engine of the economy

2) The free market has to operate within the context of a strong regulatory framework

3) The government has a positive role to play for the economically vulnerable.

His view of tax cuts for the middle class as an economic stimulus puts him more to the right than many Liberals would like which is why Liberal columnists like Paul Krugman regularly bashed him during the primary season. A lot of his views seem to have been influenced by the Chicago school of thought where Milton Friedman left a profound imprint.

I doubt I will be able to convince you, but I do think he is his own man and the evidence of that is his economic philosophy.

Does this make any sense?

"And please don't give me that white privilege BS. Don't make this election about race..."

Too late for that. The Southern Strategy makes every election about race.

@liz

Well said.

@Hope Reborn

"Game Over." I love the confidence of some of the people on this board, but you're scaring me. There's still a month to go, and while Obama's lead is undeniably widening, it's still due to the "undecideds" teetering to Obama's side in the face of a true economic crisis.

While I don't necessarily expect to see the ship of state magically righted in the next four weeks, it isn't hard to imagine some sensational or lurid "discovery"--probably fabricated--sending those same undecideds teetering to the other direction. Or Obama slipping and saying something colossally stupid at a debate (It happens to the best of us.) It's even easier to imagine the simple ebb and flow of popular opinion. "America loves an underdog," is just as true as "America loves a winner," and in a tight race, those roles can change almost daily.

There's also this: he's black. While that might not mean much to you or me, and it might not mean much to most McCain voters either...I'm sorry to say that it WILL make a difference to some voters, in the voting booth, on Election Day. One could classify these voters as the "I-don't-know-who-to-vote-for-because-I-don't-really-like-either-candidate-but-I-am-going-to-use-my-vote-and-I-just-can't-see-myself-pulling-the-lever-for-a-black-man-so-here-goes-for-McCain" demographic. Maybe as much as a 1% swing, at the last minute. Again, in a tight race, 1% is huge.

Look at the map. Obama will win those blue states; McCain will win the red. The yellow states REALLY ARE still undecided with a month left. And they are all states the Republicans carried in 2004. (And don't forget 2000: as we know, due to voter suppression, Jim Crow laws, exploitation of the elderly, caging, dirty tricks, etc., "ties" go to the Republicans.)

I want to believe you, but it's just too early to start the celebration.

Batony I don't care if you're white, black, Mexican or Asian. You sound like a jackass like the rest of the right wing douche bags when you talk about 'not being comfortable' with Obama or that somehow his Ayers and Rev. Wright connections make him 'not like one of us' but at the same time ignore Palin's associations with the AIP. So could give a fly you know what what your race is. It's called White Privilege when a white candidate is not held to the same standard as a black candidate. You can pretend like you and other idiot conservatives haven't made this about race but you're wrong. White Privilege is prevelant all over this country. You and I both know (unless you really are dumb) that if Obama had a teenager daughter pregnant it wouldn't be viewed as oh what a nice American story and look at that family doing the right thing and that great boy marrying her like that. How sweet. NO! It would be looked at as another black trash family with no parental guidance. AND if Levi (Bristol Palin's fiancee) were black talking about his guns and how he'd shoot ya and '****' all over his blog like Levi the white kid did, Levi the black kid would be viewed as black thug. Not some down home good old rugged American boy.

So you cut the crap. You are a passive aggressive race baiter on this forum since you popped up here with your 'I don't know I mean all I hear out there is 'Oh I'm not comfortable with Obama' but that's not me saying that, no no it's just what I hear out there.' Or 'I want a reason not to vote for Obama'. Why? Your posts have done nothing except imply that you want to not vote for Obama because he's not one of us. You can hide behind some vague reference to 'You don't know what my race is so I'll leave it at that.' Please, there is no race on an anonymous message board and like I said I couldn't care less what your race is. You're the one race baiting with your comments.

If sarah Palin's 17 year old daughter would not listen to her mother's teaching of abstinence and morality. Who the heck is she to be preaching reform to the nation? Charity begins at home, she need to reform her home first before making noise !!

NC-PPP adjusted for 2004 NC exit poll:

By gender alone: Obama +6
By race alone: Obama +11
By age alone: +6

CNN has an NC poll coming out later today. Should be very interesting. If Barack still has a lead, he really should be considered the front-runner in NC, as hard as that is to believe. I'll guess 49-47 O+2

CNN has an NC poll coming out later today. Should be very interesting. If Barack still has a lead, he really should be considered the front-runner in NC, as hard as that is to believe. I'll guess 49-47 O+2

Election Day Registration

Election Day Registration, also known as "same-day voter registration," permits eligible citizens to register and vote on Election Day. Election Day Registration significantly increases the opportunity for all citizens to cast a vote and participate in democracy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Day_Registration

North Carolina

Deadline for registering to vote is Friday, October 10, 2008.

The Motherlode of All Voter Registration Information That You Need

It is bookmark time and forwarding the LINK time. All 50 States of the Union, Voter Registration Information Here.

http://thisweekwithbarackobama.blogspot.com/2008/09/all-information-you-need-to-register-to.html

Election Day Registration

Election Day Registration, also known as "same-day voter registration," permits eligible citizens to register and vote on Election Day. Election Day Registration significantly increases the opportunity for all citizens to cast a vote and participate in democracy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Day_Registration

North Carolina

Deadline for registering to vote is Friday, October 10, 2008.

The Motherlode of All Voter Registration Information That You Need

It is bookmark time and forwarding the LINK time. All 50 States of the Union, Voter Registration Information Here.

http://thisweekwithbarackobama.blogspot.com/2008/09/all-information-you-need-to-register-to.html