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ND: Hoeven 53 Dorgan 36 (POS 7/26-27)


National Republican Senatorial Committee / Public Opinion Strategies (R)
400 likely voters, 4.6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(release)

North Dakota

Favorable / Unfavorable
John Hoeven (R): 86 / 5
Sen. Byron Dorgan: 69 / 24

2010 Senate
Hoeven 53%, Dorgan 36%

 

Comments
Stillow:

Add Dorgan to the growing list of Dems in trouble for 2010. Hoeven is a very very popular governor in ND....if he runs he will defeat Dorgan....esepcially if Dorgan goes along with some of the health care stuff...since ND is a conservative state.

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jmartin4s:

I remember when POS had a poll for NY-23
Tedisco-50%
Murphy-29%
and we all remember what happened.
Thus I never trust polls put out by POS. R2K had a much different poll.
Dorgan 57%
Hoeven 35%

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Mark in LA:

I thought Obama would do better in the Dakotas than he did, but these are still very "red" states. Not red like Idaho, but pretty durn red.

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Stillow:

Hoeven also has historical trend on his side. Typically a presidents party loses power i nthe mid terms....not alwyas, but usually. ND being a conservative state, Hoeven being very popular and the historical tendancies, makes ND a very likely pickup in 2010 for the GOP.

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conspiracy:

It does not make it a likely pickup at all. Dorgan is a multi-term incumbent with good favorables. Hoeven may be more popular but it doesn't mean a slam dunk. Ask Tom Obsborne. Not to mention the fact he has shown absolutely no indication that he might run. Indeed he might be looking more at Kent Conrad and his Countrywide issues.

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Stillow:

Your right has not announced yet....but he will. The GOP know they need to win some seats back in 2010. Dorgan is one of those Dems in a conservative state, so he needs to be very careful on what he does with a public health option, etc.....Hoeven I think would be the favorite to win if he jumps i nthis race...not a slam dunk, buts a reliable red state and Hoeven is just very poular.

It'd be a good race to watch, but if he runs, I think he defeats Dorgan, incumbant or not...there would be to many favorables working for Hoeven if he runs.

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Jimbo:

When you decide to run for Senate, for the most part, the crap hits the fan. Governor Hoeven is not even running yet, and he very well may not. Federal elections change people, and running against an entrenched incumbent with high favorables is not the best way to start. I think it would be darn foolish on his part.

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Stillow:

@Jimbo

Normally I would actually agree with you. But Dorgan ahs survived in a red state for a few reasons, among them are the dems were pretty much held in check during his time. In the 90's the GOP controlled congress, in the 00's Bush was in the WH so it was tough for him to actually do anything to upset a conservative leaning state.

Now that the Dems have total power, he has to play his hands much more carefully to avoid upsetting his conservtive state. If he votes for a public option in health reform for eexample, he is done since conservatives don't want g'ment run helath care....from what he has said to date it does not look like he would support a public plan at this time, but the arm twisting hasn't really started yet from Reid.

Anytime a D runs in a blue state or a R runs in a red state they have an advantage

Like Ben Nelson in NE for example often sides with conservatives, because he comes from a red state. Also keep your eye onthe two dems from Montana and begich in AK on how they act, they are from conservative states. Now that the Dems can actually pass their own agenda, some of these Dem senators have tobe very very careful on how they vote. Gordon Misth in Oregon, coleman in Minnestoa for example were red guys in blue states who got caught up in a wave in 2008 and went down.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

POS poll, indeed.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

I like how, for Stillow, independent polling done on behalf of DailyKos is obviously evil and biased. However, partisan polling for the NRSC is obviously objective and right on the mark. Nice!

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Stillow:

Yet another list of a liberal who cannot read.....

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olowakandi:

Dems in the battleground states like Reid of NV and Bennet of CO and Specter of PA are more in trouble than Dorgan is. But your point is well taken, any Democrat that's in a more conservative state, it is all possible have more to lose than Dems base states like DE and IL. I think do to their age factor, I think Reid and Specter are more like to lose if the Dems loses seats than Dorgan or Dodd.

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