Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

ND: McCain 45, Obama 45 (DailyKos-10/14-15)

Topics: PHome

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
10/14-15/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

North Dakota
McCain 45, Obama 45

 

Comments
political_junki:

First:)
Obama should start campaigning there and WV

____________________

kerrchdavis:

lol. this is just embarrassing for the Republicans.

____________________

makersmark:

I can't even believe suddenly ND is in play. Just when you think there aren't any more states for Obama to creep up in the polls in, along comes another one. Started with VA, then NC, then IN then MO, then WV, NOW ND?!?!?!


What next?

GA? MT?
MS?!?!?!


____________________

political_junki:

That is a HUUGE sample size for ND. It is 1/1000 of the whole population.

To put it in perspective, it is like a poll of FL with a sample size of 18,000!!!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow nice. Per the NY Times - "Mr. Obama is preparing to announce his September fund-raising figures in the next three days, with several top contributors saying the tally is estimated at more than $100 million."

100 MILLION. WOW.

____________________

Viperlord:
____________________

JCK:

@political_junki

Sample error is determined by the sample size, not the size of the group being sampled.

Statistically, this is nothing like FL poll w/18,000 people (which would have an extremely small margin of error).

____________________

sotonightthatimightsee:

Yeah, ok DailyKos..in your dreams HAHAHAHAHA!!

____________________

Florida Voter:

This is crazy polling!! You look at that map and say, hello Mr. President Obama! :)

____________________

PortlandRocks:

sotonightthatimightsee you're so low info. This is the THIRD poll in Oct. showing at least a tie in ND. In fact, the other two show Obama up 2 and 3. So did you wanna make fun of the other 2 pollsters as well?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

For the low info. folks on here. This is Oct. in ND for McCain:)

Research 2000 10/14 - 10/15 600 LV 45 45 Tie

North Dakota UTU (D) 10/13 - 10/14 504 LV 41 44 Obama +3

Forum Poll/MSUM 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV 43 45 Obama +2

____________________

political_junki:

LOL. Look at this to see how pathetic the right has become.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265

____________________

mysticlaker:

I can't wait to see the impact this has on 538...Nate said he his model needed a a large poll out of ND and he got one..

____________________

political_junki:

Same pollster had M+13 last month.
McCain surging every where :)

____________________

sunnymi:


What is most interesting in this poll is the fact that McCain's support among Republicans is under 80% and 11% of the Republicans are undecided.

Definitely a chance to Obama to make a play if he advertises there and has a good GOTV operation. Remember ND is a same day register and vote on election day state.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

God Republicans are so disgusting. How could anyone seriously consider this party, this election.

"National Review Writer: Obama Likely Would Have Been Aborted, Had It Been Legal."

What a bunch of pussys. Goin' down! HA!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

McCain better hope the DNC and Obama don't start running McCain against Ethanol ads in ND or he's ****ed.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@PortlandRocks

Don't pay attention to sotonightthatimightsee
You're wasting your time and your energy
This guy is the worst idiot I've ever seen in my lifetime

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Oh wait! THOSE ADS HAVE STARTED!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Why do all the trolls disappear on days like today? Some great news in polls and in the supreme court and in the media.

____________________

Dana Adini:

political

considering mccain shares are at 15 today, that guy lost a boatload of money

____________________

ericsp28:

I'd really like to see some new polls from Montana and South Dakota. We haven't had anything from SD in almost a month. And the newest poll from MT is from 10 days ago. I bet MT would go yellow and SD would go pink.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

What time does RAS release his state polls today?

____________________

billwy:

This is a little surprising, but given the libertarian lean of the state, it is not shocking that many republicans are dismissing McCain as another "big govt. conservative."
I would say this though, of the three polls taken in Oct. all with very favorable results for Sen. O, one was done by a democratic polling firm, and this one sponsored by the daily kos. I actually enjoy some of the reading over there, even though I am a libertarian, but they are the ones constantly showing the national tracker at 10-12, when Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, Battleground, and whatever this new Yahoo/Ap poll is are showing 6 or less. Expect all of those undecideds to break hard for McCain.

____________________

Atomique:

Daaaaaaaaaamn!

Get your ass up there to the frozen north, Barack!

____________________

Timdicator:

SD is nothing like ND, politcally.

____________________

sunnymi:

@PortlandRocks, you said "What time does RAS release his state polls today?"

To everyone at 5PM EST but 3PM to Subscribers.

____________________

political_junki:

billwy:
Nobody is denying that winning ND will be extremely hard for Obama, what we are happy is that the state of the race in red ND says a lot about other places.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

billwy the DAILY KOS poll was PERFORMED by Research 2000, a VERY accurate and highly regarded pollster. I will remind you that this same POLLSTER had McCain plus 12 a month or two ago. So drop the BS about liberal leaning poll.

____________________

mirrorball:

Anyone have thoughts on why the polling is so close in ND? I'll confess I don't know a whole lot about the state, except that the Dems representing the state in Congress aren't exactly considered flaming liberals. The now-infamous National Journal scorecard puts both Sens. Dorgan and Conrad as among the five or six least liberal/most conservative Democrats.

____________________

political_junki:

By the way, I dont know why pollster hasnt punlished it yet bu Rass has O+6 in MO :-)

McSame is surging every where!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

So 5PM EST we will have RAS results in CO and NV. Should be fun! I think Obama will be putting more resources into ND but I'd still like to see him spend a MAJORITY of his time in CO, VA, and FL.

____________________

boskop:

no offense obamites: but this poll shows a downward tick for o compared to the past ten days and three previous polls.

____________________

billwy:

I could write a McCain SNL commercial based on this. (Pic of ND appears and you hear a deep voice) Who is Barack Obama? He says McCain has been erratic during the economic crisis, well look who is so stable now. (Show pic of Obama staffers packing up 7 of 8 ND offices) "Had he not made such a hasty decision in the wake of Sen. McCain's convention" the announcer continues, "ND would be light blue by now." I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

In all seriousness, in the unlikely event that McCain carries all of the battlegrounds and loses ND, I would laugh my butt off for two weeks.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

Democrats are trembling in their boots because Obama may lose North Dakota...sad day for libs everywhere!

____________________

ericsp28:

@boksok

You're missing the point entirely. We don't need ND's 3 EC votes to get to 270. The excitement comes from the fact that Obama shouldn't even be close in that state.

____________________

Viperlord:

There you go guys, the trolls heard you. Have fun with them. As for me, I'm off to FiveThirtyEight to see if they've made anything of the ND poll yet. They do a better job of troll control there.

____________________

NorseSoccer:

@boskop

Well played, I guess.

But in the larger picture?

McCain was up by 9-14 points in September polls.

October polls? Obama is up 0-3 points

I don't see how that can possibly be construed as anything but good news for Obama.

____________________

Viperlord:

Alan obviously can't read polls of electoral maps... Or else he would realize it's the Republicans who are trembling.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

BASKOP ROFL DOWNWARD TRICK! LOL With your "logic" then Obama had a +6 gain in the national polls today since Hotline was released after Rasmussen. ****ing IDIOTS! JESUS! LOL

____________________

boskop:

eric: it was his all the time. he lost it to mccain for a bit and the financial crisis just gave it back to him. check your charts, buddy.

____________________

mysticlaker:

If North Dakota as in play, then so in MT...

The more options to 270 for Obama, the better. It just gets down to that.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

So now we match trends against seperate pollsters taken within a week period? WOW. LOL

____________________

billwy:

@PortlandRocks and political_junki:
I don't think my comment was BS. I wouldn't have said it if I thought so. Just simply pointing out that R2000 has been doing their national tracker polling and they have consistently shown a very large Obama lead that no one else in the daily trackers, except hotline, does.

I know you are excited about Obama turning ND blue, or at least yellow. I'm not trying to undermine your excitement, just saying if we are talking about a path to 270, I don't see OBama's going through ND. No offense meant at all.

____________________

bmrKY:

"alankeyesisawesome:
Democrats are trembling in their boots because Obama may lose North Dakota...sad day for libs everywhere!"

Awwww ****, you figured us out! You sure are a bright one, nothing gets past you.

Okay, so who is the dumbass that leaked the info. to Alan Keyes about North Dakota being our top prize? I bet it's the same dumbass who filled out Mickey Mouse's name and brought down our grand ACORN voter fraud scheme. Whoever it was, consider yourself ON NOTICE!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

You are all MISSING the point. Obama is making McCain chase him in ****ING NORTH DAKOTA. We don't give a **** about winning there... it does prove the larger point. McCain is IN TROUBLE.

____________________

RussTC3:

Looks like their last poll was an outlier (or perhaps folks were just temporarily swayed by the Palin pick). Here is the comparison to R2K's last poll:

North Dakota, 10/14-15 (9/16-17)
McCain 45 (53)
Obama 45 (40)
-8 McCain, +5 Obama = 13 point Obama Swing

____________________

iVote:

I'm surprised with these results, I didn't think the race was this close in ND. Although 11% of Republicans say they are undecided versus only 4% of Dems, and the undecided Republicans will more than likely vote for McCain come Election Day. However, the fact that none of the past three polls in ND have shown McCain ahead is troubling.

____________________

jonny87:

PortlandRocks,

your right. nothing should be spared in going after CO, VA and FL.

____________________

boskop:

and the luckiest of ruthless polits to come in 100 years!!

obama should go to wall street and kiss the bronze merrill lynch bull on its rump for delivering him this emotional and totally irrational surge of support.

but so it goes...and if in the next 12 days, syria re-invades lebanon or hasan nasrallah abducts another israeli, the game shifts again.

____________________

bmrKY:

"PortlandRocks:
You are all MISSING the point. Obama is making McCain chase him in ****ING NORTH DAKOTA. We don't give a **** about winning there... "

Yeah you do you bleeding heart lying liberal socialist! Admit it! It's not just enough for you socialists to steal the election, no, you all want to win every single state, too, ADMIT IT! Why can't you lying libs just leave Grandpa alone and let him win North Dakota? I will not stand for this injustice known as facts, logic and TRUTHINESS! This and every other poll is an EPIC FAIL!

MUH-KANE TO TIE THE RACE UP IN UTAH BY SUNDEE! CHOKE ON THAT, SOCIALIST LIBS!

____________________

KipTin:

Actually the sample size for this poll is 500 and not 600 according to DailyKos website.
--------

DailyKos Party ID this poll
McCain 45/Obama 45/Other 3/Undecided 7:

Democrats 155 (31%)
Republicans 195 (39%)
Independents/Other 150 (30%)
---------

Previous DailyKos Poll (9/16-17)
McCain 53/Obama 40/Other NA/Undecided 7

Democrats 145 (29%)
Republicans 194 (39%)
Independents/Other 161 (32%)
-----------

Previous DailyKos Poll (7/21-23)
McCain 45/Obama 42/Other NA/Undecided 13:
Dem 150 30%
Rep 198 40%
Ind 152 30%
----------
CNN Exit Poll 2004

Democrats 27%
Republicans 41%
Independents/Other 32%
-------

Compare Republican ID over Democrats:
CNN Election 2004 = +14%
Daily Kos (10/14-15) = +8%
Daily Kos (9/16-17) = +10%
Daily Kos (7/21-23) = +10%
-------

So the difference between Republican and Democratic ID from 2004 to this latest poll is Democratic ID gained 6%. Does that really sound realistic in a conservative state like North Dakota?

I think this large differenital is due to DailyKos "Likely Voter" model.

____________________

ericsp28:

Here is a little background info on ND from previous presidential elections to put this in perspective:

2004
Bush 63%
Kerry 36%
Bush +27

2000
Bush 61%
Gore 33%
Bush +28

1996
Dole 47%
Clinton 40%
Perot 12%
Dole +7
This is the closest its been in recent history and it was a Clinton landslide.

1992
Bush 44
Clinton 32
Perot 23
Bush +12 with Perot in the mix.

I've looked back all the way to 1968 and the Democrats were never even close.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin yes it DOES sound reasonable. Why do you people FAIL to understand the name REPUBLICAN is total S H I T with a capital S in this country. LOOK AT THE SENATE RACES!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin what about the other 2 polls showing Obama ahead? Could you report those weightings to me? LOL

____________________

mysticlaker:

KipTin,

ND does not have their current breakdown available on their state.

However, more troubling for the McCain camp is that ND allows same day registration/voting on election day. That means the current ground game (which Obama has, and McCain has 0 offices), is a nice little advantage.

____________________

faithhopelove:

EVIDENCE THAT VA WILL FLIP FOR OBAMA
(updated w/new bellwether county poll)

1) A new poll of a bellwether VA county finds it swinging Obama's way: "Sen. Barack Obama holds leads in four key counties that will go a long way toward determining the eventual winner in four important swing states — Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia — according to a new Politico/Insider Advantage survey. Obama bests McCain 50 percent to 42 percent in Prince William County, a Washington, D.C. suburb that voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Between 1976 and 2004, Prince William County supported Republican presidential candidates by an average margin of 18 points."

2) The 3 most recent VA polls have shown Obama's lead there to range from 6.4% to 10%.

3) 8 consecutive polls of VA (from 7 different pollsters) have shown Obama ahead there. In all 8 of these polls, Obama has hit 50% or better; 10 of the last 11 VA polls have shown Obama at 50% or better.

4) 14 of the last 18 polls of VA have shown Obama ahead there.

5) The latest VA polls show very little room for movement in VA, with both candidates having solidified their bases, and with independents evenly split.

6) Right-leaning Rasmussen's most recent VA poll finds Obama with a "very favorable" score that is 11% higher than McCain's--an enthusiasm gap that suggests Obama's likely voters are even more likely than McCain's likely voters.

7) Before the VA primary, pollsters tended to under-estimate Obama's margin of victory there; Rasmussen, whose most recent poll of VA shows Obama up 3, under-estimated Obama's margin of victory by 11 points.

8) Most if not all VA polls have not included cell-only voters, who are disproportionately young and for Obama; multiple studies have found that this omission leads to an under-estimation of Obama's support by 2-3%. VA has the 3rd-largest cell-only population in the country; see:
/blogs/cell_phone_only_households_by.html

9) According to MSNBC, "[s]ince January, Virginia, a swing state this cycle, has experienced a net gain of 436,000 new voters, including what they call an 'onslaught' of new voters in the last week of registration. Nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters across the state are under the age of 25. Trends show that, regardless of age, females represent the majority of new registered voters." These trends (more youth, more women) favor Obama.

10) Obama is outspending McCain on advertising in VA by more than 5 to 1; see:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/143149/87/186/631381

11) Obama has the backing of 4 of 6 living VA governors, including a Republican former governor and the current governor; he also has the support of one of VA's current senators. Former governor Mark Warner, who is crushing his Republican competition in his senate race (and who was the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention), may have reverse coattails.

12) Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, a southerner and former Republican, has targeted VA, visiting the state frequently; he will take some votes from McCain.

13) Obama has the superior ground game in VA, with over 60 field offices; McCain has about 20.

14) Obama leads in VA newspaper endorsements 1 to 0.

15) Obama visited the state today.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Hey Kip and Boom, some good news for you on the latest thread.

____________________

mirrorball:

I've looked back all the way to 1968 and the Democrats were never even close.

I just quickly glanced at electoral maps dating back to 1932, when FDR won the state. He won again in 1936. Only other time a Dem won was 1964, LBJ v. Goldwater.

I'll ask again: Anyone have thoughts on why the polling is even this close? It just doesn't strike me as a state that would/should be in play.

____________________

Observer:

A few thoughts about the current mismatch between national and state polling (as I see it):

1. Today we have 5 national trackers with an Obama lead 2 - 5% range for an Obama lead with two outliers at 10%. I take all this as a national lead of 3/4% at the moment which is definitely better for McCain than the 5-8% about a week ago.

2. But the good news for Obama continues to roll in from state polling. Why?

a) State polls lag the national figures and next week will show an improvement for McCain. I think this is the case but is it the whole picture?

b) Either national or state polling is giving us a wrong idea of the state of the race. From the point of view of personal bias as a McCain supporter I go with the national figures rather than the state ones. But on the grounds of larger samples and more statistical information about suitable samples I think I can justify preferring the national polls anyway.

c) Obama's advertising advantage in battleground polls means he is doing better there than nationally. However McCain's figures are not surging in state polling of red states. It is the overall state picture that conflicts with the national polls, not simply battleground states.

I think we should be wary of putting too much on state polls at the moment. By way of illustration a few (cherry picked!) 2004 figures taken from electoral-vote.com:

New Mexico
11/2/04...K51...: B48
Final.......K48.9: B50 (K -1.1, B +2)
Swing 3.1%

Ohio
10/29/04...K47...: B44
Final.........K48.5: B51 (K +1.5, B +7)
Swing 5.5%

Iowa
11/1/04...K50...: B44
Final.......K49.2: B50.1 (K -0.8, B +6.1)
Swing 6.9%

Wisconsin
10/30/04...K52...: B44
Final.........K49.8: B49.4 (K -2.2, B + 5.4)
Swing 7.6%

Florida
11/2/04....K49...: B44
Final........K47.1: B52.1 (K -1.9, B +8.1)
Swing 10%

Colorado
10/28/04...K50...: B46
Final........K46.3: B52.5 (K -3.7, B +6.5)
Swing 10.2%

I don't think there were huge late changes in voter preference in 2004. There wasn't an economic crisis and opinions on Iraq were quite stable I think. I use these figures to show how far out state polling can be even in the few days before an election. (Not all polls were this far out. As I say above I have done some cherry picking).

____________________

DTM:

Conservatives in that part of the country are not necessarily identical to conservatives elsewhere, and it doesn't surprise me at all that some of them would have disaffiliated from the Republican Party over the last four years.

____________________

Commander_King:

The Republicans don't have the time or money to defend North Dakota.This is the third or fourth poll in a row showing a possible edge for Obama here.

____________________

alleyesontheprize:

Where is Boomy - Dow starting to tank in final hour.

____________________

johncoz:

@Observer

I'm afraid your interpretation of the national trend is in error. While individual polls may have danced around, the level of support for Obama has been ruthlessly consistent for the past two weeks when the polls are aggragated ie the model and sample differences cancel each other out.

The current spread is about 6% as a result of McCain reclaiming some support over the past few days. Here's my graph, but the same picture emerges from other poll aggregation methods.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3056/2947741117_da19318cc2_b.jpg


____________________

DTM:

@mirrorball

The basic issue is that conservatives in this part of the country tend to be more libertarianish than elsewhere. So things like the Iraq War dragging on, various governmental corruption and civil rights issues, and exploding federal budgets have done a great deal of harm to the Republican brand in this region. Conversely, a lot of social conservative hot button issues don't play up there as well as elsewhere (e.g., in South Dakota they actually voted down an abortion ban referendum in 2006). One big exception is guns (which fits with the libertarian bent), and it is no coincidence Obama has local surrogates out in these states making the point that he has no intention to take away people's guns.

In short, if it was Obama versus Eisenhower, he wouldn't have a chance. But Obama versus the contemporary Republican Party is a whole different matter.

____________________

KipTin:

PortlandRocks "CANNOT rise up" against facts and data and instead uses words like "****" and phrases like "he's ****ed." Like I said before, that is a "impotent" response from a "flaccid" mind. Maybe some day he will can get invigorated enough to actually put forth a cogent argument and actually debate instead of spew vulgarities.

____________________

deeproy:

@Observer

I need to take issue with your first point. Both Gallup and Rasmussen make a point of calling the race very stable the last two weeks. It really seems to be staying in the range of 6 - 8 % daily average. I'm no statistician, but I visit these sites religiously. The race looks more or less the same as it was a week ago.

It is true that the swing of states can vary widely between the last stretch of polling and the election. What I am amazed about is the number of "safe" Dem states for 2008 as compared to 2004 (something like 250 for Oct 17 2008 and 88 for Oct 17 2004) as defined by electoral-vote.com.

In fact, going back over several weeks in 2004, Kerry never seemed to break 150 strong EVs, while GWB seemed to maintain over 150. It may be that 2004 is a bad example when comparing state polls.

____________________

zotz:

KipTin-
I think you enjoy saying those words, especially if you can claim that you are against it while doing it.

disgusting!

____________________

thoughtful:

@johncoz

I am pleased you gave Observer a better insight into where the race currently is.

I haven't fully got my head round how Rasmussen has it at 4% from his gender polling.

____________________

Observer:

johncoz

I am afraid I don't understand how you reach an average lead of 6%. The latest figures I have read are:

Gallop (trad)..2%
IBD................3%
Rasmussen.....4%
Battleground..4%
Zogby.............5%

Hotline.........10%
Kos...............10%

Add them all together gives a mean of 5.4 but as I posted, the two 10% polls I regard as outliers. I still say that the average of the other 5 polls is 3/4%. If the polls are weighted according to sample size then once again it is less than 6%.

____________________

johncoz:

Hi thoughtful,

I think the gender issue with Ras has to do with his weighting methodology, but given we are never supplied with the raw data (gee, wouldn't that be nice!) I wouldn't want to speculate further.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Observer

If you think that this is a "traditional" election then there is no point discussing it.

but just for arguments sake you were to take the median between the 2% and the 10% you'd end up at 6% which I think is what LV2 Gallup is actually showing.

Refer to Rasmussen and Gallup tomorrow please.

____________________

johncoz:

Observer,

I have discussed my methodology in my previous morning posts (they're usually on the Zogby board, as in today), but briefly:

1. I use the five three-everyday trackers for the sake of consistency.
2. The results are weighted, principally by sample size (eg Kos is generally 0.67 and Ras 1.71)
3. The average is the single data point for each day. No regression (a la Pollster) is performed, and there is no "tail" (a la RCP).

At the moment my spread estimate is actually smaller than those of 538, RCP or Pollster, but I would claim more realistic.

I also provide a daily weighted average for all nationals for each day, but obviously that is less consistent though still of interest.

____________________

deeproy:

@Observer

You are "cherry picking" your Gallup spread. To keep things consistent, you should use their Registered Voters numbers (that they've used over the length of the campaign), which have a spread of 7 points. This gives you a mean of 6.15, not 5.4.

____________________

Observer:

thoughtful

I agree that I might be totally wrong as to which polls are outliers and which are not. Sometimes they are all outliers. I don't predict what might happen tomorrow. All we know is that things continue to change, if for no other reason than statistical noise.

Will things improve for McCain? Will they improve for Obama? I have no idea. But forgive a McCain supporter some joy for the moment in seeing some polls closing. Every last percentage point gain for Obama wheresoever it might be is greeted with an understandable chorus of celebration from the majority Obama support apparent on this site. We all make the most of the good news and will continue to do so.

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

poor kipcrap- a eunuch til the end.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Observer

There is some tightening, the states polls today for NV and CO taken since the debate can't be a good sign.

____________________

Observer:

johncoz

Thanks for explaining that. The difference between us is largely my exclusion of the two 10% polls as outliers. But I see that I also include more trackers in my calculations.

Overall, whatever the figures I think it valid to say McCain is noticably better off today than a week ago. McCain's best polls last friday were 5%. Now there are 4 polls a little better than that including the big guns of Gallop and Rasmussen.

____________________

Observer:

deeproy

Of course I am cherry picking to show McCain in the best light. But showing the figures on the 'traditional' basis is not radical. I have lived long enough to see a lot of elections that are 'different this time'. Eventually we might have one that is really different.

I am still impressed by the Palin effect in drawing crowds and firing up the base Republican support. Who knows, maybe the novelty of a female Republican will enable McCain to beat traditional pollster's models!

As for Gallop Registered Voter figures I cannot see that they are of use except to compare with Gallop's own historical figures. All the other pollsters are reporting Likely Voters so any discussion of Gallop in conjunction with other polsters has to use LV figures.

____________________

johncoz:

Observer,
McCain has improved his numbers, but he hasn't dented Obama's. The result is that red states are falling like skittles in the polls, creating a strategic nightmare for his campaign.

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

Kiptin,

personally i think using words like **** and ****, for purpose of exclamation, makes perfect sense when your **** is getting all ****ed up as McCain's is.

You gotta admit, it is North Dakota..and its not like the poll has Obama leading.

____________________

mirrorball:

IBD................3%

IBD/TIPP is O +5.3 today

http://www.tipponline.com/

____________________

It has been 8 long years since the Republicans won the election in 2000 with a 5 to 4 vote by our U.S. Supreme Court. Now is not the time to get complacent because of poll numbers. Get to the polls and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Hey guys, Boomshak must be crying over all the money he lost on intrade. Some idiot was trying to manipulate the price and lost a small fortune.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20081017/pl_cq_politics/politics2976265

____________________

bmrKY:

"KipTin:
PortlandRocks "CANNOT rise up" against facts and data and instead uses words like "****" and phrases like "he's ****ed." Like I said before, that is a "impotent" response from a "flaccid" mind. Maybe some day he will can get invigorated enough to actually put forth a cogent argument and actually debate instead of spew vulgarities."

Apparently you've never read posts by Boom****, wakeup/gotosleep, and marctx. Or even your own posts, for that matter.

____________________

OK, just to blow my own trumpet one more time, I saw this possibility ten days ago - Obama should pay a little attention to this quckly-changing state - if McCain does have a revival, it would be hand to have these 3 EVs to back up Kerry's states and Iowa - only leaving him 8 short - now can we please get some recent South Dakota polls? And for that matter Arkansas, Louisiana and Kentucky

____________________

deeproy:

@Observer

When using multi-week polling data to deduce trending, I would think you should use the same polls. Using Gallup Registered for last week and Gallup Likely Traditional (which is new this week, I might add) for this week is disengeneous.

When I calculated the mean, I used Gallup Registered and not Gallup Likely Traditional. Using Gallup Reg one week and Gallup LT is akin to using two entirely different polls. This would be like using and average of Zogby and AP one week and then using SUSA and CBS the next, and expecting accurate trending data.

Basically, it's apples and oranges.

____________________

KipTin:

WRONG.. bmrKY... I have NEVER utilized vulgar terms to express myself, yet on a daily basis PortlandRocks spews garbage often directed at me--Usually when he cannot refute facts, data, or argument.

FYI... I do take the liberty of repeating offensive language of others to make the point that these words are part of a pattern of bad and stupid behavior.

I find your defense of someone who uses such vile language to be equally bad behavior.

____________________

common sense:

Obviously this site has been shut down. : Anyway, I'm going to warn anyone who cares to listen that Sarah Palin, until recently, was a member of the Assembly of God. Of course she has a right to believe in whatever theology she wants. In my personal opinion members of this sect are nuts. They believe that Herbert Armstrong is a Prophet. They believe that we are in the end times. They are Millenialists. An atomic holocaust is their fervent hope. Potentially entrusting the nuclear code books to her is an embarassment for McCain. Please, if you just think i am some Obamanaut - Google Assembly of God before you criticize me.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR