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ND: Obama 43, McCain 40 (UTU-8/23-27)

Topics: PHome

United Transportation Union (D) /
DFM Research
8/23-27/08; 400 LV, 5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

North Dakota
Obama 43, McCain 40
At-Large: Pomeroy (D-i) 53, Sand (R) 27
Gov: Hoeven (R-i) 63, Mathern (D) 19

 

Comments
Brutus1_:

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/politics/2008/09/cindy-mccains-300000-outfit.html

Who is the elitist, cosmopolitsn again?


ROTFL! Give it up retardlicans, no one is falling for the lies......


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Brutus1_:
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Brutus1_:

And from the people that brought you the John Edwards baby scoop:


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/03/mccain-camp-battles-natio_n_123696.html


Wow, I wouldn't want to be in the Palin family right about now.

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Brutus1_:

Nay, I stand corrected. This is the beatdown of the year!


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/4/105623/5197/586/586233

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player:

Well within that gulp 5% margin of error.

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sjt22:

How can they justify a poll, even a state poll, with only 400 LVs in the sample?

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mrut:

@sjt22

Because that's how many people live in North Dakota. (It used to be 401, when I lived there.)

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cinnamonape:

Actually all the surveys of North Dakota have small sample sizes. I think that this is perfectly justifiable in smaller population States. Note that even the big polling groups only have slightly more.

United T'sport Union (D) 8/23-27 400 LV 40 43 12 - 5
DKos.com (D)/R2000 7/21-23 500 LV 45 42 13 - -
Rasmussen 7/8/08 500 LV 43 43 7 - 7
Dakota Wesleyan 3/24-4/3 260 RV 44 38 12 3 3
SurveyUSA 2/26-28 574 RV 42 46 12 - -

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political_junki:

sjt22:
In general I'd agree with you but not in this case. The whole population on ND is 600,000 people. This poll samples almost 1 out of every 150 people in the whole state.

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zotz:

Interesting ND stats

pop. by race

white 92%
indian 5%
black 0.6%
other ~2%

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Brutus1_:

Factoid - North Dakota has about the same number of people as Alaska.

Who knew? Maybe mccain should see if there are any mayors of a reservation available for Secretary of State should he win....


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ndirish11:

Oh Yeah Brutus, and the great state of Delaware is so mighty. Maybe democrats should have found someone who actually voted YES or NO in the senate. Or hey, they could have nominated the person who got more votes! But who does that these days.

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Florida Voter:

Crazy times that a so-called liberal elitist Democrat is ahead or polling very close to our POW candidate in N. Dakota, Montana, Nevada and Colorado. If McCain loses any of these states, he may be able to retire early on 11/4.

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buckeyepoliticalscientist:

I'd be surprised if the race was actually this close. Follow the link to the questionnaire (what is released to us, anyway). If the only question they use to identify "likely voters" is Q1: "...how likely would you say you are to vote?", then the sample includes many people who likely will not vote. 89% of the n=400 answered "very likely." Let's assume they all actually do vote. Do we really think ND will have a turnout of 89%. NO WAY. Their T/O in 2004 was about 65%, and ND usually has one of the highest turnouts because they don't have the administrative barrier of voter registration. Nobody will have an 89% turnout. So the question becomes: what kind of people that made it into this sample of "likely voters" will not vote, and is there a systematic pattern to them (e.g. weakly identified Democrats, who sit out elections more than weakly identified Republicans)? Filtering out the sample with other questions such as interest in the election, attention paid to politics, past voting behavior, etc. would have made this a more accurate poll, methinks. Don't be surprised if McCain wins this state with 6 to 8 points to spare. ND, after all, hasn't voted Democratic in a pres. election for over 40 years. It frequently sends "farm-state" Democrats to Congress, but votes Republican in presidential elections.

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