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ND: Obama 45, McCain 43 (The Forum - 10/6-8)

Topics: PHome

The Forum/In-Forum.com
Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead
10/6-8/2008, 606 likely voters, margin of error +/- 4%

North Dakota
Obama 45, McCain 43

 

Comments
PortlandRocks:

Wow call it an outlier but it is the 1st poll on Oct for ND and the largest sample of any of the last 5 ND polls. :) I'm smiling. He may not win but this gives you an idea of how Obama will fair around the country in rural areas of BG States.

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Shaft:

Not North Dakota!?!??! What's next, East Dakota?

McPain is supposed to deliver a speech where he 'speaks to the American people' about his economic recovery plan and highlights the differences between himself and Obama!!!

What exactly has he been doing thus far?!?! Picking out new curtains for his 11 houses?!?!
You're going down, clown!

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Timdicator:

Unlikely.

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OneAngryDwarf:

First WV now ND hmm it looks like there has been significant movement in some of these infrequently polled states.

I wonder what that means for the big picture. What about MT, AZ and AK? I know that 2 of the 3 are home turf for Repubiccan candidates but all of them were weak a few months ago. McCain isn't playing well in AZ and we have a huge hispanic population like CO, NM and NV.

MT and AK only moved after Miss Wasilla joined the game and lets face it she is about as popular now as chicken pox.

I don't think that any of these states are "in play" but it would be interesting to see if there has been any movement.

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burrito:

Wow !! If this is true, and ND is in play, then McCain is in deep, deep trouble ... how far can he stretch his resources?

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Dan_in_upstate_NY:

IF this poll is accurate, it's nothing short of amazing--given that Obama pulled all resources out of the state a month ago. (He used to have 8 offices in ND, now he has just one in Fargo.)

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thoughtful:

12% undecided

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orange24:

This one is stunning

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OneAngryDwarf:

Is there anyplace that O isn't on offense now?

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socalerdoc:

McCain keeps wasting his money in states he has no chance in IA,PA,MN,WI...so he will have no money to defend ND,NC,GA

I smell landslide.

RIP repugs

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Lappel1:

He's not picking out new curtain for his houses, but new wax jobs for his cars, and plastic surgeons for his wife.

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pbcrunch:

OK, no way is Obama ahead in ND; he pulled his staff out of the state a few weeks ago and there are there just simply isn't that much advertising leaking in from MN.

Don't get me wrong, i would LOVE to believe this but this is just simply too good to be true.

WV is slightly more believable.

In any event, these outliers are not good for McCain as they point to strong pro-Obama trends.

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Dana Adini:

from the guys who brought you Fargo.....No country for old men

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

New curtains for 7 houses: $80,000
Getting the cars waxed: $1,100
Botox injection for Cindy McCain so she can maintain her smiling face during John McCain's concession speech: priceless

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OneAngryDwarf:

The McCain campaign seems like a punch drunk fighter at this point. They've just been hit with a huge overhand bomb that rocked them, their arms/surragates are flailing around and the brain really doesn't know how to control them at this point.

They are stumbling like a drunken man leaning forward ready to kiss the canvass. Grasping at the ropes in a desperate attempt to remain upright as the world grows dark.

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BOOMFAIL:

No matter how this poll is spun, it clearly shows that McShame is in DEEP doo doo.

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riverrun:

@Dana Adini:

A really clever quip.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

This is as true as McCain having a shot in CA!

Dream on, Obadroids!

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@sotonightthatimightsee

Are you saying that the Minnesota State University poll is biased or that they didn't know what they were doing?

If I was McCain, I'd probably leave PA and focus on the states that I might actually win.

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Mark in LA:

This is a big "if", but IF Obama is ahead in ND, one has to believe that Montana and South Dakota would have similar movement back in his direction. Montana was the most Obama friendly pre-Palin. I wonder how close SD and ND are in their polling? It certainly is a welcome poll.

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JFactor:

Obama's not going to win North Dakota but it's remarkable that the polls show it to be this close.
___________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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wakeup:

I think .com polls are nonsense. Look at Kos poll... has it moved at all?

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Trosen:

JFactor, you're right. But I'd still like to see some more polls from that region (ND, SD, MT). Remember, MT and SD were polling pretty close until Palin-mania hit back in early Septemebr. Now that she's gone sour on most voters, it wouldn't surprise me to see some of these states get interesting, if not actually be "in play."

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TJIRISH34:

LMAO at ND Poll. As school commissioner Chalmers on Simpson's would say to Principal Skinner: McCain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL

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vaview:

I am not going to say that I completely buy this poll, but I am not sure why everyone thinks this is such a surprise. Obama was leading in ND at the start of the summer, he was down there in Sept. when it was polled in the midst of the McCain convention bounce, and now he's back level. That doesn't seem to be an Obama bounce, it's the back end of a McCain bounce. Quite probably McCain has what he needs to scrape through here, but let's not make this result seem like its just fallen completely out of the blue.

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brooklyn137:

We are making an assumption about North Dakota which is not valid. Although it has voted for Republican presidents, it has had two democratic Senators since 1987 and one since 1961.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_North_Dakota

A lead there for Obama is not so surprising.

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Hoosier:

At this point, I have to consider this an outlier. Still, I agree that we need more polling in states like ND, SD, and MT. I think we can cut back a bit on polling PA and MI.

Also, I would be interested in seeing polls from some of the "never polled" states: LA, NE by Congressional District (they split EVs), and AK now that the Palin bubble has burst.

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richieBr:

I don't believe this poll for a second. Obama has surged everywhere but this - from an unknown polling entity - is too hard to believe.

Missouri on the other hand, with a new SurveyUSA poll out today showing Team Obama with an 8 point lead - that I believe. The McCain campaign is on life support. So many fires too put out - not enough time or resources or will to turn this around. We are about a week away from the RNC cutting their losses with McCain by pulling their financial support to focus on House and Senate races. McCain has a week to turn this around.

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D-503:

@sotonightthatimightsee:

Haha, I agree! You guys can keep North Daktoa and we'll keep California. This arrangement is most agreeable, I think.

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cinnamonape:

Remember that this race was actually a seesaw from early Spring through the Summer. Then McCain chose Palin, with her Fargo accent. Then there were three polls, all close together in time that showed huge McCain jumps. Then no surveys for almost a month.

In the interim the gilding has gone off the Palin mystique.

The old phrase is "live by the sword, die by the sword". When people are told that this is the real bill of goods, and it turns out to be tainted...they react strongly and quickly. It's like when the love goes out of a relationship. The rejection can get nasty.

Something similar happened in Minnesota and Wisconsin...so why wouldn't the effect be seen in North Dakota?

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cinnamonape:

One more question. Is there any geographic subdivision or regionalism within North Dakota that might result in a pollster mistakenly over-sampling any cohort within the State? I thought that North Dakota was fairly homogenous. ASFAIK, it's not like Florida, or even California, Wisconsin or Indiana.

How badly have they been hit with foreclosures there? Are they a major producer of ethanol? McCain did make some statement about opposing ethanol production in the last debate.

Has either candidate, or their "seconds" visited the Dakotas recently?

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RussTC3:

How does this result change the Pollster.com average which is currently 52.5M to 41.4O without this poll?

Lean McCain seems likely, no?

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vinkeith:

It would be great if Obams would play a little in some red states (TX, MS, GA, AL) to name a few!

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VermontWisdom:

Memo to McCain/Palin. Time for a town meeting in Bismark. In fact why don't you spend the rest of the campaign securing ND.

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NOT AN OUTLIER, I REPEAT, NOT AN OUTLIER! Also not a major surprise - I spotted this a few days ago and commented on it although I think my comment disappeared somewhere along the way. I'll admit I didn't expect it to flip this fast. But something similar may have happened in SD (and maybe even Kansas). Throw a little money at these states, Obama, drop by a couple of times, get the Clintons to camp out in Arkansas (no polls from there in a little while), have a good debate and after the 30-minute national TV spot you could be looking at a serious landslide (provided you don't do anything typically Democrat to screw it up).

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Tom:

Uh, wasn't Sarah Palin supposed to have knocked this state out of play?

I am willing to accept the fact that this may be an outlier, but still, this is a state that should be called as fast as the networks can get the graphics up when the polls close. It is going to be a long night (for McCain supporters, at any rate).

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Ed Schultz pounds away on the radio waves for Obama on his local show everyday up in fargo...always helps to have a local, respected, liberal on the airwaves.

Not bad considering all the Obama hqs closed there.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Ed Schultz pounds away on the radio waves for Obama on his local show everyday up in fargo...always helps to have a local, respected, liberal on the airwaves.

Not bad considering all the Obama hqs closed there.

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Basil:

ND voters hear Palin, fondly remember how much more competent Frances McDormand's "Fargo" character was than Sarah Palin is, and spontaneously go Democratic. QED

It's a Pavlovian/Freudian thing.

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Wayne from Fargo:

Wayne from Fargo
The Forum is the market leader in NW Minnesota and the Dakotas. The Ethanol industry is growing, Suger is even larger, with more than three major suger processing plants sited on the MN/ND border. DMI, national leader in building windturbine towers have their main plant in Fargo. All of these sectors are being attacked by McCain. Both Sen. Dem. House member Dem. Obama has been here, PLEASE PLEASE come back I want to WIN this state for my party, (dems) my country, my fellow veterans.

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