Pollster.com: New Hampshire 2008

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New Hampshire 2008

March 03, 2008

Last Thursday, the New York chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) held a post-mortem on "What Happened" to the polls in New Hampshire. The meeting included a presentations by pollsters from Gallup, the Marist Institute and...

January 23, 2008

New Hampshire Polling Snafu: Bibliography

With his column in The Hill this week, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman becomes the latest pollster to weigh in on the various theories behind the polling kerfuffle in New Hampshire two weeks ago. Since I neglected to link to some...

January 19, 2008

The New Hampshire Recount

Arguably, the election results that will get the least attention today involve the hand recount underway in New Hampshire at the request of Democratic candidate Dennis Kucinich. The results of the recount so far, as posted by the New Hampshire...

January 16, 2008

More NH Clues: The CBS Panel Survey

One of the theories about what went wrong for the polls in New Hampshire is that the apparent post-Iowa "bounce" for Barack Obama never really occurred. Perhaps the surge for Obama was just the artifact of some sort of sampling...

January 15, 2008

New Hampshire: What About Monday Night?

Back to the final polls in New Hampshire. One of the statements I have heard from some pundits over the last few days is that pollsters stopped calling on Sunday. While that was true for most of the organizations that...

January 15, 2008

Norpoth: New Hampshire's Crystal Ball in 2008

(Today's Guest Pollster contribution comes Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University). New Hampshire voters may mystify pollsters and pundits, but they have acquired an uncanny sense of picking candidates that go on to the White House. Whatever accounts for...

January 14, 2008

AAPOR Announces Evaluation of NH Polls

My colleagues at AAPOR have just put out this release: In the wake of the New Hampshire pre-election polls, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) today announced the formation of an ad hoc committee to evaluate pre-election primary...

January 13, 2008

Likely Voter Screens and the Clinton Surprise in New Hampshire

(Editor's note: Today's Guest Pollster contribution comes from Professors Robert S. Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of Temple University). Does the world need one more explanation for the historic failure of the polls to predict Hillary Clinton's victory...

January 10, 2008

NH: A Lesson From 1948

My second** NationalJournal.com column (that like all these contributions will be free to non-subscribers for the next week): The lesson from the polling debacle of 1948 that pollsters should apply in aftermath of this week's polling problems in New Hampshire....

January 09, 2008

New Hampshire: So What Happened?

There is obviously one and only one topic on the minds of those who follow polls today. What happened in New Hampshire? Why did every poll fail to predict Hillary Clinton's victory? Let's begin by acknowledging the obvious. There is...

January 09, 2008

Polling Errors in New Hampshire

Hillary Clinton's stunning win over Barack Obama in New Hampshire is not only sure to be a legendary comeback but equally sure to become a standard example of polls picking the wrong winner. By a lot. There is a...

January 08, 2008

NH Results Thread

6:08 p.m. Eastern time - The Atlantic's Marc Abminder is first out of the box with hints from the New Hampshire exit poll: EXIT POLLS: GOP: 3 in 10 independents are GOP voters...many late deciders... McCain more electable than Romney...33%...

January 08, 2008

NH Election Day Thoughts

I have few thoughts about New Hampshire in my mental "in-box" I want to try to blog this afternoon... 1) Break to Obama? - Reader "FlyOnTheWall," in a comment posted to my exit poll item this morning, noticed something important...

January 08, 2008

Looking for New Hampshire Exit Polls?

Looking for leaked exit poll results from New Hampshire? Sorry to disappoint, but whatever their merits, we are unlikely to see any such leaked results until moments before the polls close. In past years, the network consortium that conducts the...

January 07, 2008

New Hampshire Endgame

The New Hampshire endgame polling presents an interesting contrast. The Republican race shows virtually no hint of an "Iowa Bounce." The Democratic race, on the other hand, is showing a huge bounce for Obama and a drop for Clinton....

January 07, 2008

NH: The View from Monday Afternoon

It's been quite a day for new poll releases. We now have new results from 11 different organizations that continued based on interviews in New Hampshire through Sunday, with two more that wrapped up calling on Saturday. As such, I...

January 06, 2008

NH: View from Sunday Morning

So as of this morning we have seven new polls conducted all or in part after results of the Iowa Caucuses were known. The spin-debate dejour is whether Barack Obama received a "bump," and if so, how much. It is,...

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