Mark Blumenthal | January 23, 2008
Topics: 2008 , Mark Mellman , New Hampshire , Pollster , The 2008 Race
With his column in The Hill this week, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman becomes the latest pollster to weigh in on the various theories behind the polling kerfuffle in New Hampshire two weeks ago. Since I neglected to link to some or mentioned others only in passing, I thought it would be worthwhile to post a collection of links to everything I have collected on the subject. Going forward, this entry wills serve as a "frequently asked questions" (FAQ) page for the New Hampshire polling controversy.
For now, here are the links. If you know of an analysis worth including that I have overlooked (or if one of these links is broken), please email us (questions at pollster dot com).
My Blog Posts
See also all posts on Pollster.com tagged "New Hampshire 2008"
Analysis and by Pollsters and Other Notables
Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic
What Happened To The Polls? The ZbornakEffect?
Robert Erikson and Chris Wlezian
Likely Voter Screens and the Clinton Surprise in New Hampshire
Mickey Kaus, Slate
Hillary Stuns -- Four Theories
Joe Lenski, Edison Media Research
More on the New Hampshire Turnout, And Its Implications
Nancy Mathiowetz, president, American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)
Pre-Election Polling in New Hampshire: What Went Wrong?
Who Were New Hampshire's Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Mark Mellman, president, The Mellman Group (D)
N.H. Many Theories, Little Data
John Nichols, The Nation
Did "The Bradley Effect" Beat Obama in New Hampshire?
Frank Newport, editor-in-chief, Gallup
Putting the New Hampshire Polls Under the Microscope
More on New Hampshire
Scott Rasmussen, president, Rasmussen Reports
What Happened to the Polls in New Hampshire
John Zogby, president, Zogby International
Polling the New Hampshire Primaries: What Happened?
Prior Research on Bradley/Wilder and Interviewer Effects
Finkel, Guterbock and Borg, Race-of-Interviewer Effects in a Preelection Poll: Virginia 1989 (via AAPOR)
Hugick, Polling in Biracial Elections
Hugick and Zeglarski, Polls During the Past Decade in Biracial Election Contests
Keeter and Samaranayake (Pew Research Center), Can You Trust What Polls Say about Obama's Electoral Prospects?
Pew Research Center, Race and Reluctant Respondents
Traugott and Price, A Review: Exit Polls in the 1989 Virginia Gubernatorial Race: Where Did They Go Wrong? (via AAPOR)
Streb et. al, Social Desirability Effects and Support for a Female American President (via AAPOR)
AAPOR Ad-Hoc Committee
Mark Blumenthal - The New Hampshire Recount
Jennifer Agiesta and Jon Cohen, Washington Post - The Method or the Map
DailyKos Diarist DHinMI - Enough with the "Diebold Hacked the NH Primary" Lunacy
Farhad Manjoo, Salon - Was the New Hampshire Vote Stolen?
Josh Marshall - Enough
New Hampshire Secretary of State - Recount Results
Sharon Brogan - I Have This to Say About That
Don't those pollsters know
that married women
lie in the presence
of their husbands?