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New Hampshire Polling Snafu: Bibliography

Topics: 2008 , Mark Mellman , New Hampshire , Pollster , The 2008 Race

With his column in The Hill this week, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman becomes the latest pollster to weigh in on the various theories behind the polling kerfuffle in New Hampshire two weeks ago. Since I neglected to link to some or mentioned others only in passing, I thought it would be worthwhile to post a collection of links to everything I have collected on the subject. Going forward, this entry wills serve as a "frequently asked questions" (FAQ) page for the New Hampshire polling controversy.

For now, here are the links. If you know of an analysis worth including that I have overlooked (or if one of these links is broken), please email us (questions at pollster dot com).

My Blog Posts

New Hampshire: So What Happened?
A Lesson from 1948
What About Monday Night?
More Clues: The CBS Panel Survey
The New Hampshire Recount

Charles Franklin

Polling Errors in New Hampshire

See also all posts on Pollster.com tagged "New Hampshire 2008"


Analysis and by Pollsters and Other Notables

Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic
What Happened To The Polls? The ZbornakEffect?

Jon Cohen, polling director, The Washington Post
About Those Democratic Pre-election Polls
What if the Polls Were Right?

Robert Erikson and Chris Wlezian
Likely Voter Screens and the Clinton Surprise in New Hampshire

Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys, CBS News
NH Polls: What Went Wrong
Gender and Race in the Democratic Primary

John Judis, senior editor, The New Republic
Poll Potheads
Response to Kohut

Mickey Kaus, Slate
Hillary Stuns -- Four Theories

Andrew Kohut, president, Pew Research Center
Getting it Wrong
Response to Judis

Gary Langer, polling director, ABC News
New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco
The New Hampshire Polls: What We Know
Why Pollsters Got it Wrong (Video)

Joe Lenski, Edison Media Research
More on the New Hampshire Turnout, And Its Implications

Nancy Mathiowetz, president, American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)
Pre-Election Polling in New Hampshire: What Went Wrong?

Allan McCutcheon
Who Were New Hampshire's Likely Democratic Primary Voters

Mark Mellman, president, The Mellman Group (D)
N.H. Many Theories, Little Data

John Nichols, The Nation
Did "The Bradley Effect" Beat Obama in New Hampshire?

Frank Newport, editor-in-chief, Gallup
Putting the New Hampshire Polls Under the Microscope
More on New Hampshire

Scott Rasmussen, president, Rasmussen Reports
What Happened to the Polls in New Hampshire

John Sides
Should We Blame Secretly Prejudiced New Hampshire Voters for Obama's Loss?
The New Hampshire Polls, One More Time

John Zogby, president, Zogby International
Polling the New Hampshire Primaries: What Happened?


Prior Research on Bradley/Wilder and Interviewer Effects

Finkel, Guterbock and Borg, Race-of-Interviewer Effects in a Preelection Poll: Virginia 1989 (via AAPOR)

Hugick, Polling in Biracial Elections

Hugick and Zeglarski, Polls During the Past Decade in Biracial Election Contests

Keeter and Samaranayake (Pew Research Center), Can You Trust What Polls Say about Obama's Electoral Prospects?

Pew Research Center, Race and Reluctant Respondents

Traugott and Price, A Review: Exit Polls in the 1989 Virginia Gubernatorial Race: Where Did They Go Wrong? (via AAPOR)

Streb et. al, Social Desirability Effects and Support for a Female American President (via AAPOR)


AAPOR Ad-Hoc Committee

AAPOR FAQ on New Hampshire Polling: What Went Wrong

AAPOR Announces Ad-Hoc Committee to Evaluate New Hampshire Polls


Stolen Vote?

Mark Blumenthal - The New Hampshire Recount

Jennifer Agiesta and Jon Cohen, Washington Post - The Method or the Map

DailyKos Diarist DHinMI - Enough with the "Diebold Hacked the NH Primary" Lunacy

Brad Friedman, BradBlog
NH Primary: Pre-Election Polls Wildly Different Than Announced Results for Clinton/Obama
New Hampshire's Chain of Custody

Farhad Manjoo, Salon - Was the New Hampshire Vote Stolen?

Josh Marshall - Enough

New Hampshire Secretary of State - Recount Results


Verse

Sharon Brogan - I Have This to Say About That

Don't those pollsters know
that married women
lie in the presence
of their husbands?

 

Comments
Gary Kilbride:

If Mellman's Embarrassed Hillary Supporter theory has any weight, I wonder if it would be true of her backing in general, from Independents and particularly Republicans? After all, a "harshly negative" treatment of Hillary has been the norm among the right wing segments of the media for more than a decade. I can hardly imagine self-identifying as a Republican in a survey, and not being at least somewhat embarrassed to admit to a favoritism of Hillary.

Of course, party switching in a presidential race is very low, so it wouldn't resemble New Hampshire variance. But it wouldn't surprise me if Hillary, as the nominee, earned a slightly larger chunk of Republicans than suggested by pre-election polling. Especially since late undecideds tend to be majority women. Men are embarrassed to admit they don't have a clue.

And let's take the hypothesis a step further and propose a polling nightmare on both ends of the general election. The Embarrassed Hillary Supporters suddenly feel relieved and liberated after leaving the voting booth. Therefore, they agree to exit poll in surreal percentage, throwing off the pre-election polls in one direction and exit polls in the reverse, an even more pronounced red shift. Anything to keep me entertained.

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