Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

New Hampshire Trends

Topics: 2008 , Slate Scorecard , The 2008 Race

Now that our trend estimates are appearing in the Slate Election Scorecard, with the daily twitches of our trend lines getting extra attention, I will try to provide some running commentary here on how the addition of new polls changes the trends from day to day.

One intriguing example comes from the new poll in New Hampshire out today from St. Anselm College.

This New Hampshire poll is the second in a row showing Hillary Clinton receiving 43% of the vote, above our trend line but consistent with its increasing upward slope. The new poll, and the addition of nearly two weeks to the trend since the last New Hampshire poll, helps push her score on our estimate up to 40.5%, a 1.2 point increase since the last update.

The continuing Clinton upward trend aside, however, the results also indicate some potentially good news for Obama. On the last four New Hampshire polls - all conducted since late September - Obama's share of the vote has been above our trend line: 22%, 21%, 23% and 22%. The five polls before that - all conducted in the prior month - were slightly lower: 17%, 16%, 18%, 17% and 19%. Remember, Professor Franklin set the sensitivity of these trend lines to minimize the impact of just one poll.

10-25_NHTopzDems_sml.png

So the current Obama trend line (above) reflects the slight decline in Obama's New Hampshire support from earlier in the year. Still, the addition of the most recent result flattens that downward slope just slightly and, as such, increases our current estimate of his support slightly (from 19.4% to 19.5%) since the last update.

What makes this intriguing is that Obama started buying New Hampshire television campaign ads in earnest roughly four weeks ago. So this is a trend worth watching very carefully.

 

Comments
enthusiast:

I think Hillary's got it sewn up unless she makes a huge mistake.

Barack has flip-flopped so much that most people don't know what he stands for. He's just the anti-hillary candidate now.

Much more interesting would be an analysis of the Republican/repuke campaign.

Also, PLEASE UPDATE YOUR BUSH APPROVAL GRAPHS MORE OFTEN! IT'S WAY BEHIND NOW, AND BUSH IS TRENDING DOWN.

____________________

Chris S.:

What about the GOP race in NH? We've now had something like 6 consecutive polls in which McCain's numbers have been above the trendline. Would you be willing to show what the trendlines there look like if you apply a more sensitive estimator?

____________________

DTM:

I'd be willing to bet that both Clinton and Obama are indeed on a sharper upward trajectory in New Hampshire than the current trend lines indicate. Generally I think the methodology being used here is a vast improvement on simple averaging of recent polls, but one expectable downside will be it may lag a bit before it recognizes a deflection point.

____________________

Adam:

A few questions about the polling methods. Does it mention anywhere on your site exactly what the poll questions were, how they were phrased? ie: "If the election were held tomorrow", etc. Was "unknown/undecided" offered as a response?

for example, the iowa dem poll shows a total of approx 90% accounted for, distributed between the candidates shown. how is that other 10% accounted for? other candidates not shown? undecided not shown? it would be good to see trends of undecided.

and regarding how the questions are asked... it is very relevant information in understanding these results. for instance, some polls ask something like "which of the following candidates would you be most likely to vote for if the elections were held tomorrow?" well, for many voters who haven't yet started paying attention to the campaigns or candidates, this is somewhat unfair. ie: hillary clinton being the candidate most dems are familiar with might gain in this case because these type of voters are simply not as familiar with the other candidates, and are basically forcing a choice.

____________________

Bruce:

St. Anselm's data release doesn't tell us who was asked the horse race question, and without that information the horse race numbers don't really tell us anything. Does Clinton 43 - Obama 22 represent just Democrats? Democrats likely to vote accoring to some unspecified likely voter model? Or Democrats plus independents and Republicans who say they will vote in the Democratic primary? Reports from New Hampshire (http://www.cmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071028/FRONTPAGE/710280339) suggest most independents who vote will vote in the Democratic primary, so Democrat-only polls would misrepresent the electorate. Can you please comment on the comparability of the polls in your trend charts with respect to the population being sampled?

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR