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NH: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 5/26)

Topics: Governor , New Hampshire , poll

Rasmussen
5/26/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

New Hampshire

2010 Governor (trends)
50% Lynch (D), 31% Kimball (R)
51% Lynch (D), 32% Testerman (R)
47% Lynch (D), 35% Stephen (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
John Lynch: 53 / 43 (chart)
Karen Testerman: 31 / 22
Jack Kimball: 31 / 21
John Stephen: 36 / 25

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 45 / 54 (chart)
Gov. Lynch: 51 / 47 (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Get a life Rasmussen. NH is more conservative than any other New England states, however, they have voted for Democratic presidents in 4 of the 5 past elections. It was a state that was slow to warm up to Obama, but 45 percent is a bit ridiculous.

Can pollster find some recent vermont polls? I did one with Research 2000 last week.

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Farleftandproud:

I hope that Hodes against Ayotte will pick up for him. Lynch is very popular, and Hodes isn't really that much more liberal than Lynch. Lynch has been governor and is the guy who has been responsible for the state's budget and raises in taxes. I think NH had an increase last year.

The recent northeastern trends have been to pick a Republican governor but send Democrats to washington. That makes more sense to me, because governor's don't get corrupted by Washington, and don't always have to do everything by the "GOP handbook". In sending a senator to Washington, the moderates have been more and more partisan from New England and less and less independent. I am seeing a move to the right from Snowe and Collins since Obama has become president.

Just because they have had easy roads to re-election in the past, and seemed independent minded, that has come to an end. Snowe and collins were well liked when they frequently voted against the Bush agenda, but under Obama I have been very disappointed. They will regret it next time they are up for re-election.

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JMSTiger:

45% for Obama in an anti-big government, anti-tax state like New Hampshire seems about right.

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JMSTiger:

Farlefty-

Why are you not railing against Gallup for their anti-Obama, racist polling? Gallup (polling ALL ADULTS) currently shows Obama's approval rating at 46% while Rasmussen (using their LIKELY VOTER model) is showing Obama's approval at 48%. Surely, Gallup is now not to be trusted and must be considered to be racist, anti-women and anti-gay.

Long live identity politics!

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GoTo123:

Farleftandproud: This one probably isn't inaccurate considering the model that Rasmussen uses. Factoring out the house effect I'd say the opinion is nearly evenly split in New Hampshire.

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Cyril Washbrook:

@JMSTiger: I'm not interested in the usual back-and-forth that goes on in these comment threads, but on the actual polls, it's not a valid comparison. Gallup's job approval polling for the President tends to add up to around 90%, whereas Rasmussen's almost invariably adds up to 99-100%.

A better comparison would be to take the net approval rating: today, Gallup has Obama at +1, whereas Rasmussen has Obama at -8.

I'm making no judgement here about the soundness of either survey, but it's objectively not true to suggest that Obama does worse on Gallup's job approval question than on Rasmussen's.

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Farleftandproud:

I am not upset at gallup for this week's polling showing the GOP ahead by 6. At least their polls tend to vary week to week.

Based on Obama's approval the past week, I was not surprised.

I tend to see things from the big picture, and I knew that oil spill wasn't going to help Obama very much, and the media hasn't really talked about much else. The Morale has been down for a few weeks, and the party in power isn't going to look good in times like these.

With good PR and strong campaigning things will turn around for the Democrats and Obama has a way of bouncing back.

It is sort of like pro football an NFL team losing badly like if the Giants lost to the Browns by 27 points one week; That doesn't mean the browns are a better team, and the Giants usually bounce back. It just means they were outplayed for a brief time. Dems are sometimes outplayed by their opponents but I think they will bounce back.

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