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NH: 2010 Sen (PPP 4/17-18)

Topics: new hampshire , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/17-18/10; 1,474 likely voters, 2.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate (trends)
Ayotte (R) 47%, Hodes (D) 40% (chart)
Hodes (D) 43%, Lamontagne (R) 38% (chart)
Binnie (R) 46%, Hodes (D) 41% (chart)
Hodes (D) 43%, Bender (R) 40%

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kelly Ayotte: 34 / 24
Paul Hodes: 32 / 39
Ovide Lamontagne: 12 / 28
Bill Binnie: 25 / 23
Jim Bender: 6 / 18

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 47 / 48 (chart)
Sen. Gregg : 44 / 37
Sen. Shaheen : 42 / 48

 

Comments
Sean Murphy:

Looks like New Hampshire may be returning to it's traditionally Republican ways after going for Kerry in 04,Obama in 08 and electing Shea-Porter,Hodes to the House and Shaheen to the Senate. Republicans are likely to pick up NH-1 and NH-2 this fall.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

If Ayotte wins NH, her and Shaheen would be the first female senators to represent the same state concurrently from different parties. How's that for useless info! Dems are guaranteed to lose one female senator (Lincoln) and another is in danger (Boxer). GOP women are leading the Dem and their primaries in Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

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Farleftandproud:

This is a race where you have two strong candidates. I don't think NH is turning Republican, and I can speak for it since it is my neighboring state.Ayotte is probably the strongest GOP candidate who isn't an Incumbent. They have an interesting mix of moderate Republicans and progressives. Ayotte is not as conservative as Toomey or Portman but more conservative than Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe.

I think the fact she is a woman will help. I predict there will be one Republican senate seat that will go blue. I think NC, Missouri and Ohio have a shot, despite the odds they are against.

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Farleftandproud:

Dems will be more likely to lose Hodes district than She-Porter's district. She is like a fixture in NH and her opponent is a conservative male like Sununu.

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tjampel:

If NH replaces a Repub with a Repub I don't see that as returning to anything; it's status quo. Ayotte has been careful to avoid any serious discussion of issues and is using her popularity to carry her through the primary for the moment.

I think Ayotte has the advantage but, people in NH like strong independent candidates, not rock stars. She will eventually have to articulate her vision for NH and the country. She may do it very well or she may utterly fail; we don't know yet; she hasn't even won the primary yet. The race is still her's to lose but she hasn't been tested yet.

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Field Marshal:

If NH doesn't like Rock Stars or people who haven't been tested (or vetted), then why did they vote for Obama in '08?

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Stillow:

FM - Clearly you don't watch the news. Obama is the brightest most inteelctually capable president we have ever had. I mean he even has a Nobel peace prize which he clearly deserved.

I mean come on, which other president ever gave Matthews that speical tingle up his leg? Obama is not only qualified, he is uber-qualified just on the tingle factor alone.

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Glenn Howes:

I wouldn't call Rep. Shea-Porter a fixture, she's been in office all of 3 years and 3 months. And it was considered quite an upset for her to win in the first place.

(I actually live in the great state of New Hampshire, but not in Ms. Shea-Porter's district.)

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Field Marshal:

Stillow,

LOL. How many countries are currently laughing at us?

I find it funny that there are news articles that state that the United States' image abroad has increased since Obama was inaugurated and that the number was ridiculously close to the number of people in those same countries who want to see the US's power diminished.

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Sean Murphy:

Farleft:

RCP currently rates both NH districts as leans GOP.The guy challenging Shea-Porter is the mayor of city in New Hampshire. It is true that Ayotte replacing Gregg wouldn't be a switch but the fact that Dems may lose both House seats there could be a sign that the Democratic agenda is wearing off in the Granite state. If Obama's approval in the state is in negative territory come 2012 the NH could be ripe for taking for the GOP nominee.

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Farleftandproud:

If there is any issue that Obama has been a success on it is our image abroad. I am not saying this because I am a progressive; Reagan was highly liked abroad, whereas Bush started to cause mass Demonstrations worldwide right after the invasion of Iraq.

Obama may not be that popular in Israel, not because Obama doesn't want to protect them, but because he decries the fact that Israel has been a bully, and refuses to listen to the Palestinians. Of course Obama isn't going to be popular over there. I admit that many countries like Russia belittle him and haven't gained respect for him. They certainly had no respect for Bush. Bush's best buddy overseas was the leader of Afghanistan. Bush did nothing but inaction over there, and now that Obama's pressence is stronger, Karzide isn't so friendly to Obama.

Overall our image abroad has transformed considerably. That isn't to say that we couldn't be attacked, but most industrialized Democracies actually wish they had a president as personable as Obama. Like it or not righties, but google Obama's approval in Canada, Britain and other countries and compare it to Bush.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"those same countries who want to see the US's power diminished."

Which countries are these?

Our power is already diminished. Our inability to bring swift ends to the Afghan or Iraq Wars prove it. We dealt with Saddam in a few months in 1991. We dealth with Milosevic in a few months in 1999. We've been mired in our current two wars for the whole decade.

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Farleftandproud:

NH is a strange state. It is surrounded by VT and Mass that are heavily Democratic and you have RI and CT. Ayotte has some questions to answer before I can form an opinion of her. Sununu was a horrible senator, and extremely partisan, but Judd Gregg was not half bad. I think he has some of the characteristics of Scott Brown or Charlie Crist. I think what makes it conservative is the "Live free or die motto". NH is hardly that. I went to college near there and Southeast NH is quite pricey. NH has no sales tax but property taxes are quite steep.

I know the polls say "lean Republican" in both house seats, but I have worked with the NH Democrats and they are well organized! Obama was down by about 6 points at one point in 2008. I helped out in 2002 for the Democrats and Sununu did not win by very much that year when Bush was still quite popular.

I may agree that more socially conservative states like PA, Missouri, Indiana and the south Democrats may lose seats, but I have confidence in NH. This race will be a nailbiter, Democrats will keep both house seats and

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Farleftandproud:

Vermont a very liberal state and a socialist senator borders NY 29th, NY 20th and both NH districts that are extremely conservative. I think Vermonters are working hard to carry our philosophy to other areas.

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Stillow:

farleft- Is there ever a day that goes by where you don't: 1. label someone a racist for opposing Obama or 2. Tell us all about how wonderful socialism is.......?

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Aaron_in_TX:

I don't think farleft mentioned racism today. You're the first to do that today, Stillow.

But Bernie Sanders is not a socialist. He calls himself a democratic socialist. A real socialist does not believe in democracy because they see it as too wrapped up in capitalism and corruption; the leaders primarily concerned with re-election.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Nevermind. I neglected to look at the PA-12 thread. That's where the racism talk was.

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Rockym92:

These will be some of the best races of 2010. I think Ayotte is the clear favorite at the moment and will win by 5%+ but the 2 house races will be very close and if the GOP pick up both of them, that will mean they have picked up control of the house as well.

NH has always been and still is a great barometer of the nation.

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Stillow:

aaron - Right, because pure socialists are never corrupt or worried about re-election at all. They are probably the most noble among us...probably comparable to Jesus himself.

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Aaron_in_TX:

In a pure socialist system there would be no voting. It wouldn't be necessary. The most qualified individuals would be the administrators, chosen based on expertise and merit, like applying for a job. Marx and Engels never make clear how these people would be initially chosen. I suspect they believed in some sort of social darwinism that would make the choice clear.

Socialism is a socio-economic system. It seeks to eliminate the anarchy that is capitalism (from their perspective). Democracy would = anarchy to them. Too many competing interests. Socialism emphasizes the good of the society, the body of people, not the individuals.

Democratic socialism is a whole different animal.

You never took political theory did you?

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jamesia:

Aaron, don't be silly. You know debating civics with almost all politically active conservatives is useless. Newt and Coulter have made obfuscation the primary goal here, not reasonable conversation.

The Tea Party carries around signs simultaneously claiming Obama is a Nazi and a Communist. They're basing these claims completely on emotional response: Nazi = bad, communist = bad, and Obama = bad, therefore they're all equivalent as well.

I nominate that Obama is also a DMV worker!

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