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NH: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 3/8)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
3/8/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Rasmussen

2010 Senate
47% Ayotte (R), 37% Hodes (D) (chart)
42% Hodes (D), 38% Lamontagne (R) (chart)
46% Binnie (R), 36% Hodes (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kelly Ayotte: 60 / 22
Paul Hodes: 46 / 42
Ovide Lamontagne: 33 / 33
Bill Binnie: 47 / 26

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 52 (chart)
Gov. Lynch: 63 / 36 (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

I think Ayotte is the most well known and well liked GOP candidate in NH. The favorables on Paul Hodes are quite a bit higher on this. This is Rasmussen, where they have smaller numbers of Democrats than most other pollsters.

NH is about 98 percent White,and has one of the highest incomes among the states, so it doesn't have the same dynamics and Demographics of a state like Ohio, Florida or Missouri.

I think Ayotte will have a tough race because she has been appointed and not elected. When she has to take positions on very partisan issues, that will be the real test for her. If she comes across like Scott Brown or Olympia Snowe, she will probably win, but if she comes across like Sununu or even worse like Santorum or Grassley she won't stand a chance.

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Farleftandproud:

NH is a wierd state. It is the only New England state where Republicans are more favorable than Democrats. Being near VT and Mass you wonder why the Republicans they nominate, other than Judd Gregg are extremely conservative. Sununu had a voting record that was to the right of half of the GOP. He was a true hard core Republican, but Graham Rudman before him was a lot better. He crossed over a lot with the Democrats on a lot of things.

What is surprising is they claim to be a great state for Small business, and their business tax is low, but NH hits homeowners with huge property taxes. They are much higher than VT. They have income tax that isn't all that low either, so they make up for it in different ways, not having sales tax.

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It's interesting to me that in both the Wash. Senate poll and this NH poll, Rasmussen shows his margin of error at a very high 4.5%. NH is a pretty small state and he polled 500 people, which should be a very large sample for that state, yet he still has a hugh MOE on his sample. Isn't that odd?

His sample size in Wash. was also 500 and that state has about 5 times the population of NH. Why would the MOE be the same? Is he questioning his own sampling?

I'd look for some professional response on this, as it's been a few decades since I took a class in statistics.

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Farleftandproud:

Binnie is extremely far right. It is rather scary he is ahead of Hodes by such a big number. Next to Nevada though, NH has had one of the biggest backlashes against Democrats out of the states Obama won at all levels. I am more partial to NH because I have been to events and heard Shea Porter speak and Hodes. They are good honest people.

I am sure that progressives from VT and Mass will help out a lot in this race. I bet Scott Brown will be campaigning for Ayotte.

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Farleftandproud:

Well PPP which is pretty middle of the road and realistic had Democratic governors ahead by 10 in both Colorado and Il and around the same time, Rasmussen had it reversed. That was among likely voters. Ras will never admit they are wrong and think they can predict the future and that future means that America is moving quickly to the right, but I don't buy it.

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Field Marshal:

Ayotte is going to win this easily. Chalk this seat as a Rep. Take that to the bank.

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Farleftandproud:

NH is still New England and has been trending Democratic in recent elections. I don't think she will win easily and Hodes will catch up. She has little campaign experience, she just has a nice smile.

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Lou-NH:

Unless someone out there has a crystal ball, NH doesn't know yet whom they support. NH is a very independent state with a proud history of political awareness. Thus far none of the candidates have come out on the major issues. The only candidate with a record is Hodes. This gives the competitors an edge until they have to tell us where they stand. NH can change on the dime as evident by the HRC victory in the primaries and that is probably why the competitors are maintaining a low profile.

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