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NH: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/7)

Topics: poll


Rasmussen
4/7/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate
Ayotte (R) 50%, Hodes (D) 35% (chart)
Lamontagne (R) 44%, Hodes (D) 39% (chart)
Binnie (R) 49%, Hodes (D) 37% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kelly Ayotte: 61 / 19
Paul Hodes: 45 / 46
Ovide Lamontagne: 38 / 31
Bill Binnie: 51 / 28

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 50 (chart)
Gov. Lynch: 59 / 39 (chart)

 

Comments
scottkj:

Another GOP pickup. I seriously think GOP has a chance to win the Senate. If they can get Wisconsin and/or Washington to flip, it is real possiblity. There is a lot of voter anger out there and a large amount that want to throw the bumbs out!

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Field Marshal:

This is likely a safe GOP pickup in 2010.

Everyone should check out Nate Silvers analysis on the House.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/generic-ballot-points-toward-possible.html

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CUWriter:

I love GOP gains as much as the next guy... but this is a GOP open seat. So it's a hold.

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Field Marshal:

Right! This is Judd Greggs seat. I keep thinking it Lynch's but he's the Gov.

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Farleftandproud:

I think the GOP's bubble will burst if their quest for power is too great. In 1994 Democrats actually had a shot to keep more seats early in the year and got attacked and massacred in the end. This year it could happen in reverse. The Democrats are not going to allow the smears to continue, and just as a reminder, the campaign hasn't begun. When the TV ads start airing, Democrats will bounce back.

Hopefully Ayotte will ask Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin to come up here and campaign for them, and she's toast.

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Farleftandproud:

NH at least is a pretty affluent state, and more thriving small businesses than most others. It would seem more like a state who leans Republican for fiscal reasons. It is about 97 white too.

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Farleftandproud:

Hodes has not had a lead in this race, but NH is sort of a reverse of the other New England States. They have a Democratic governor, but have tended to send more Republicans to Washington than the rest of the Northeast.

Ayotte has a bubbly personality like Palin, but I have heard she is more socially conservative than Judd Gregg, which will make it more problematic for her.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

"The Democrats are not going to allow the smears to continue, and just as a reminder, the campaign hasn't begun."

Could've fooled me. Isn't Obama still campaigning out there and whoring out his health care plan? Aren't the Dems and the MSM still pimping out the "everybody's a nAzi!" storyline day in and day out? And it's not working. Because it looks so patently inauthentic, mean-spirited and hypocritical. It makes the Dems personal attacks seem tone-deaf to the problems local communities are facing. Every time the Dems go in to the attack, they look small. It's nothing new, that's what the GOP looked like in 2006 when they were belittling anti-war candidates.

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Farleftandproud:

No, Westwood, you are wrong. Obama has passed a landmark health bill, and it has only been passed for 3 weeks. Of course the public isn't going to have that much trust in such a big step that is changing our infrastructure, they are confused. Medicare once had a unfavorability of 67 percent when it was passed in 1966. THe US is the most paranoid nation in the world against social Democracy, and too many people are out for themselves. If they don't need affordable health care themselves right at this moment, many Americans don't give a damn whether or not their neighbors have it.

You say that progressives are comparing many conservatives to Nazis. I think that is a generalization, but I have to admit that the GOP has not done a good job at speaking out against threats on people's lives and in the long run these acts of violence will not work.

In comparison to the one death threat against House Whip, Cantor from the left, there have been death threats on Pelosi, Stupak, Patty Murray in Washington and many others. A Texas and Maryland Congressman were hung on a noose in effigy, and Senators Mccaskill, and Cardin, walked out of a Town hall, just because the crowd was simply acting like Juvenile delinquents or inmates in a Prison, they were so disrespectful. In contrast, I recall many college students and press idealists, listening to Donald Rumsfeld during the dark days of Iraq, and they asked some questions where they were clearly angry, but they never showed this "Mob rule" mentality. They got emotional at times and crowds cheered, but they were able to show their concern without acting like Thugs.

Gov Mcdonnell has revoved "Slavery" in his National confederacy Day. The same guy also changed laws that protected people based on Sexual orientation. Even many Republicans thought that was the wrong thing to do.

Clearly Progressives are the doves right now, and being such a Violent nation as the US is, I think these threats and intimidation from the right is working. It was indeed the same Mob rule mentality that started in the 3rd Reich as Hitler Rose to power.

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Farleftandproud:

I do agree that Democrats need to change the subject from talking about Health Reform, and start branching out to talk about energy and further removals from Iraq.

Campaign ads for the Democrats should include denouncing violence and the GOP for failure to denounce it. I can think of times where I wanted to beat the hell out of many conservatives, but I never acted on my feelings. Too many hot heads from the far right take it to the next step and that is why acts of domestic terrorism are much higher now and the Clinton years than they ever were from the left during the Bush years.

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Field Marshal:

The Dems are going to start moving away from the whole violence and belittling the tea party thing since most of the violence was fictional and the tea party is more liked than both national parties.

The Dems have no idea what to run on. Some want to run on garbage like denouncing the tea party and branding them as racist, angry white people while some want to continue attacking Bush. Others actually want to talk about the issues but they quickly get drowned out by the inept party leadership.

I hope they run on blaming Bush again. That would be a real hoot.

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Farleftandproud:

We shall see what strategy the Democrats will use, but if Republican candidates for senate don't control their supporters, and act the same way at rallies to elect them as they have been in town halls, and some of the most hateful demonstrations during the tea parties, (Not all of them) but the ones that clearly spread misinformation and portrayed Obama as an ape or jungle man. If candidates like Kirk, Ayotte, Portman and others find their supporters are using hateful rhetoric, Democrats will use that against them. There is a place for conservative opinions in AMerica but there is no place for mob rule protests.

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Farleftandproud:

Field Marshall: There are pictures to prove what happened last summer with the violence, and the hateful messages against Obama. The video camera doesn't lie. Do you think the holocaust is a myth too?

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Field Marshal:

FL&P,

Pictures of people calling congressmen racist names? That's a first.

I'm talking about two weeks ago when the CBC (the most racist bunch of SOBs there are) proclaimed they were spit on and called the N-word while walking into the capitol. Problem was that there were hundreds of news cameras and recording equipment and for some reason none of these news crew picked it up. It was all made up.

No idea how the holocaust got included there. More liberal distraction and ridiculousness probably.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

Farleftandproud:
Field Marshall: There are pictures to prove what happened last summer with the violence, and the hateful messages against Obama. The video camera doesn't lie. Do you think the holocaust is a myth too?
===

You have a convincing act as a clown. Yep, today is exactly like the Holocaust. Never mind that Obama is the most anti-Israel president ever. There will be more dead Jews under Obama than at any time since FDR.

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Stillow:

First the violence is a farse. maybe .01 percent of them are kooks....and some of that 101 are those leftwing nuts fro mthe crash the tea party people with undercover seiu members doing it on purpose. So give me a break already.

And I do not recall all this fake outrage fro mthe left when Bush was having books written about him on how to assasinate him or moveon.org running ads depicting Bush as Hitler...or some of the green rallies where they had signs up that save the earth kill bush. So you libs need to get your nose out of the clouds, no one is buying your fake outrage....the truth is the right doesn't hold a candle to the crap you pulled for 8 years. i didn't see anyone egging Obama's car during hsi inaugeration.

The left is so fake its just comical...no one outside the fringe even listens to it anymore....when msnbc pushes this fake outrage, all it is is red meat for the far left kooks who actually beleive this crap.

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lat:

Stillow,

39.6 buddy.

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Xenobion:

The country is pretty evenly divided. I don't dispute Republicans will pick up lots of seats but will they just lose them again? Probably...

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

Xenobion:
The country is pretty evenly divided. I don't dispute Republicans will pick up lots of seats but will they just lose them again? Probably...

You mean that in the future the Democrats will come into power again? Wow, your political prognostication is top-notch, you make Nate Silver seem like a midget.

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Stillow:

lat - Hell even Walter Mondale got 40 percent of the vote. No matter what happens or what people do about 40 percent will always vote one way. Each presidential election is almost 40/40 with only about 20 who have a real possibility of swining there vote eiter way.

So yes, only the left buys this fony outrage...you ugys have lost the center and the right, but don't let me rain on your parade.

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Fred:

When I think of angry protesting, I don't generally think of the Tea Party. A different two words come to mind.......Code Pink. Radical right wingers they are (sarcastic)

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Stillow:

I just want to know how I can get the code pink ladies to come protest in front of my house topless like they do elsewhere.

But noooo, instead I get the neighbor who likes to work on his damn motorcycles 24 hours a day on one side. Or the guy behind me who has a damn chilean mesquitte tree which drops about 10,000 damn seed pods on my lawn every year. However, I did get him back by putting my daughters 13 foot high playground in the middle of his mountain view.

Anyone with ideas on how i can deal with the motorcycle guy, I am open to suggestions, even from you lefties.

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lat:

Stillow,

You dodged the question from the fox post. You claim that Obama is giving the store away on the recent nuke treaty, but Ronald Reagan and Bush 41 did literally the exact same thing almost verbatim. So I guess they were traitors too according to your twisted logic?

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Farleftandproud:

Whatever righties. I have seen the same videos of right wing maniacs time and time again, in just about every news source I can think of. I am not just following MSNBC and left wing magizines. History will be the judge, and there is no mercy for people who use intimidation and threats to get leaders out of office. That is what they do in Latin America or the Middle East, not in a "so called" democracy like the United States.

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Stillow:

lat - No one is ignoring anything. We're talking about nearly three decades of hcanges between then and now. We have far more counries with nukes now than there was then...we have other countires on the verge of getting more. We shoul dnot send a signal of weakness. I really don't care if we have 1,000 or 5,000...it really wont ;make a difference if things got that bad.

But speaking of ignroing, its cute how you ignroed all the left wing violence I referenced and can only see other stuff from your little prism.

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Mark Ang:

Stillow, I like your points and have been lurking here for a year now, cheering you on, but can you please proofread before you hit "Post"? The spelling and punctuation errors are horribly distracting.

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Farleftandproud:

Race plays a big part in Obama's approval. Some conservatives will say, why is Bobby Jindal popular? That would be because he plays the roll of a typical southern traditionally conservative politician, and won't speak out against racism in such a public way. Not that he wouldn't, but people like him and Clarence Thomas won't admit that people don't deserve special treatment because of their race.

What worries me about Obama in contrast to Clinton is when Clinton's approval was down, first off I understood in his first few years because he had been a prolific womanizer, and had been involved with a criminal scandal in Arkansas. Obama is trying hard and sometimes too hard to please everyone, and it seems like whenever he has a victory, it is recieved well in my neck of the woods and among most independents and Democrats I know, but when I look at the polls it is very unpopular.

Obama promised health care reform, Nuclear arms reduction, decreasing troops in Iraq, and fighting terror in the place Bush should have gone in the first place, Afghanistan. It is one thing for people who didn't vote for Obama not to like what he has accomplished, but I can't say he has been any more progressive on any issues than what he promised. Why was he elected, if every decision he is making so unpopular?

I am more concerned about Obama's political future than Clinton, mainly because of his race. I think it isn't always something people are aware of, but deep down inside many white Americans are jealous of African American kids living in White house high society and living the royal lifestyle. There is a lot of innate racism, that I think if Kerry, Gore or even Hillary were president now, their poll numbers among whites would be way higher.

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Farleftandproud:

Well if Obama is the most Anti Israel president ever, he will have real problems getting elected since Jewish Americans are his strongest supporters. I can't believe Obama doesn't consult with those who are most affected by arab militance in Israel before creating policies.

If Obama was indeed threatening jewish settlements, the New York Times and Washington Post would be sure to have it in for him.

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Stillow:

farleft - Its comments like yours that keep this country from evolving forward. Your kind of thinking keeps us rapped in 1960. Its leftists like you who ar ethe true racists. The only explatnion you have is whites are racist. I hope one day people like you can grow up enough to view people by who they are and not by the color of their skin.

Obama has been giventhe royal treatment comapred to how Bush was treated. There was real and pure hate for Bush coming fro mthe left and it had nothing to do with his race.

Then you justify popular minorites within the GOP like Jindal or Rubio or Thomas as being some kind of Uncle Tom to their race for not speaking out.

It is my sincerest hope that people like you overcome your racism and evolve to catch up with the rest of us.

I dislike Obama for numerous reasons and it has absolutely nothing to do with his race. If Ronald Reagan was in office today and was supporting the same types of policies Obama is, I would feel the exact same of Reagan as I do Obama.

You need to mature. Try and enter the 21st century like the rest of us. Quit living in 1960. Pockests of racism exist on both sides and within all races...people like you keep those pockets thriving.

His policies are disliked because of what they are doing to the country....no one gives a damn what color he is.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"There is a lot of innate racism, that I think if Kerry, Gore or even Hillary were president now, their poll numbers among whites would be way higher."

Farleft, I hate to agree with Stillow, but like him I strongly disagree on this point. Race is undoubtedly a factor in Obama's approval, but not the primary one, probably not even among the top 10 reasons people don't like him. Being black and liberal (this is the operative word here) does not help him among conservative whites - it reinforces negative stereotypes they have of him but race is not what causes them to not like him. The policies of Gore or Hillary would be very similar to Obama's (his top advisors are largely former Clinton advisors after all, including Hillary herself), so their approval would be more or less the same. Racial intolerance might be responsible for a few points at most, most whites who don't like blacks are already well-ensconced in the republican coalition. Democrats lost those folks long ago.

Democrats have not carried 50% of the white population since 1976, and then, barely. Obama got 43% of them, 5 points higher than Kerry. They can't be more racist against Kerry than they were toward Obama.

Remember that you're talking about whites, a population decidedly more well-off and consequently more conservative than the rest of the country. For the most part, whites are the 'haves.' Of course they're going to prefer the status quo and feel that changes will impact them negatively, particularly when help is going toward the 'have-nots,' who they probably feel are undeserving.

Now race is a factor among the opposition - my dad calls him a n***er, for instance. But my dad has not voted democrat for president in his life, so it's irrelevant.

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