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NH: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 7/12)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

Rasmussen
7/12/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate (trends)
49% Ayotte (R), 37% Hodes (D) (chart)
43% Lamontagne (R), 40% Hodes (D) (chart)
49% Binnie (R), 38% Hodes (D) (chart)
43% Bender (R), 39% Hodes (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kelly Ayotte: 56 / 32
paul Hodes: 46 / 48
Ovide Lamontagne: 40 / 39
Bill Binnie: 53 / 36

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 42 / 57 (chart)
Gov. Lynch: 57 / 43 (chart)

 

Comments
Paleo:

Ah, I see Rass is back on track. Probably was drunk when he tabulated the California results.

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Farleftandproud:

NH is a developmentally disabled state because they believe their paper, the Manchester Union Leader like it is the truth. I have never seen a newspaper have so much control over voting in my life.

If you look at Missouri, Blunt only leads by 2 against Carnahan, yet Binnie and the third guy even poll way ahead of Hodes.

I think Nevada and NH are the two states that I can't figure out. Neither state fits into the "Bible Belt" category, and both states border a couple of more Liberal states (CA and OR) and NH borders Mass and VT.

Both states seem to have a public opinion that changes like the New England weather changes so quickly.

Shea Porter I have heard speak, and she was best known in the 70's being a anti-war activist and helped close down a couple of nuclear plants.

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Farleftandproud:

THis is a state I used to cycle to when I lived in northeast Mass, and bought liquor and has no sales tax. The strange thing, is there are expensive tolls in NH, and a nearly 10 percent meals tax. Property tax is extremely high as well compared to VT, so the "Live free or die" motto is just a myth.

Obama's approval in Maine has been mid 50's, and Maine is not all that liberal of a state.

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Field Marshal:

Ah, i see the Ras-hating trolls are back at it. We missed you guys. Its been what, a whole two days?

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Xenobion:

This is consistent with all other polls. Hodes has made no ground in this race, but then again the primaries in this state haven't occurred yet either.

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Farleftandproud:

Hodes is a good guy. I have heard him speak. His only weakness is he isn't all that dynamic.

What worries me about this poll rather than other states like KY and NH, Binnie who is even more ultraconservative and less likable than Ayotte polls ahead. It is worrisome, because NH shouldn't be a state with this much of a Republican surge. My God, Rasmussen has Obama's poll numbers 3 points lower in NH than Kentucky. Am I going to have to start accusing NH of being a racist state? This is a state I have spent a lot of time in and never viewed it this way.

It is not a major practicing Catholic state nor a Evangelical state; it is a huge state for sportsman, but so is Vermont. Hodes, like most NH and VT politicians respect the 2nd ammendment, and since there isn't a huge crime rate, tough gun regulation isn't neccessary.

The support fo Arizona's law in VT was reversed on Rasmussen. It was one of the few states that respects human rights, and the constitution. The righties will attack me on all these things but if you actually read the constitution, some methods of dealing with illegal immigrants is reasonable, but not all.

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iVote:

Pollster not posting Rasmussen's Missouri senate poll yet? The race seems to be tightening back up there.

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Chris V.:

farleft:

"It is worrisome, because NH shouldn't be a state with this much of a Republican surge. My God, Rasmussen has Obama's poll numbers 3 points lower in NH than Kentucky. Am I going to have to start accusing NH of being a racist state?"

Not unless your goal is to look like a goddamn moron. Which, if your usual posts are indication, it is. Carry on then, go ahead and call everyone who doesn't agree with you a racist. It works so well for obamalover.

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tjampel:

First poll in 2 1/2 months in NH. Nearly same result as back then. Hodes doesn't seem to be able to move his favorables up even though he really doesn't have anyone attacking him yet (the primary hasn't been held, as has been pointed out). That's not a good sign.

I am a little surprised Ayotte's favorables are still this high given her own bad press over her department's failure to investigate certain matters. I guess she weathered that one just fine. I'd like to see the head to head between her and Binnie.

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Chris V.:

Also, "racist" New Hampshire voted for Obama over McCain by nearly a 10% margin, which further invalidates your absurd accusation.


The Kentucky thing has to be BS anyway. No way in hell Obama's approval is lower in a state he carried by almost 10% than it is in a state where he lost by more than 16%.

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Aaron_in_TX:

The Obama approval is waaay too low for this state. If Obama was a 42% in NH, he'd be well below 40% nationally. He's at 42% in TX for pete's sake.

Another problem - are we supposed to believe that 86% of NH residents have an opinion of businessman Bill Binnie? You'd only know who Binnie is if you're a subscriber to Forbes. While only 79% have an opinion of former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne (who lost 40-57 in 1996)? Same 79% has an opinion on Jim Bender (who the eff is that!?)

But there's 0% unsure on the Obama approval question.

I'm usually not one to complain about Rasmussen bias, but this one is questionable.

On an unrelated note, Binnie is a huge mod. He'd be somewhat to the left of Gregg if he maintains his positions - pro choice and for immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship. He used to be for gay marriage (civil, not religious) but removed that from his website, doesn't matter anyway since NH legalized gay marriage already.

This guy is not the conservative great white hope.

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Farleftandproud:

Aaron is correct. Even Rasmussen had Obama at 42 percent in Texas. My point about NH is that it isn't a racist state, and Obama did win it quite handily. Even John kerry won NH in 2004, so I have my doubts.

NH did almost legalize gay marriage as well, and this is based on my own experience, which I can't really say for states like Nevada or Arizona, since I have never lived there.

It is smack in the middle of Canada, Maine, Mass and VT and has the Burlington, VT and Boston Mass. media markets, which really makes me wonder how accurate this poll is.

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Farleftandproud:

I could honestly understand a Democratic liberal losing in Iowa, because it is a very strong Evangelical state. I even thought Iowa wasn't ready for the courts to rule in favor of gay marriage. NH, is more of a fiscally conservative/socially moderate state, but has been trending bluer in past elections.

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Country Club Repub:

New Hampshire is a state where GOP candidates who focus on fiscal issues and not social issues, can win pretty easily. Judd Gregg (Bush 41 type Republican) has remained popular, not long ago the other Senate seat was in Republican hands as well. Also not having a black population helps, my state of PA would be a safe GOP state if it didn't have so many black people.

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Farleftandproud:

Sarah Palin needs to make a trip to NH in October, and I hope she does. That would be the best news for progressives.

Gregg is quite a decent guy. I have seen him live at a town hall, and he answers questions from those who are critics of Republicans very clearly. I wasn't at his pre-Iraq town halls, but there was a lot of resistance, and he was rational yet hawkish.

Sununu was a different story; much more of a Neo-con and not very socially moderate.

Scott Brown, Snowe and Collins are not afraid to turn from the party line, but I am finding that Rossi, Ayotte and Fiorina have rephrased their positions on their web sites considerably, and it is troublesome to say the least.


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Farleftandproud:

And even better I would love to see the GOP candidate invite Tom Tancredo to NH. I won't be protesting it, I'll be filming it with a camera phone and posting it on You Tube.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"NH did almost legalize gay marriage as well,"

It's my understanding that the NH gay marriage law is just as strong as the others, except there are some special protections for religious institutions that reject gay marriage.

My mom went to college in NH in the 60s. She is amazed at how much more liberal it has become. It used to be solid republican country up there.

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lat:

Sheetmussen! Scottie keeps driving that narrative. Go Scottie go!

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Field Marshal:

Judd Gregg for president!

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Huda:

hahahaaaaaaaaa, Field Marshal is hilarious. Newt Ging has better chance than Judd Gregg, which doesn't say much.

NH is an indie State in the truest sense, one of the few that maintained its good economy, not as good as Vermont though. The only Repubs that wins there are the least conservative, we'll see in November.

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Emily Swanson:

Chris V: Please take a look at our comments policy and try to keep things civil. I think it's fair to say that calling someone a "goddamn moron" is not.

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