Pollster.com

What is right with New Hampshire? Ayoooooootee!

Confirms PPP's four point poll of yesterday. Not many undecided in this race, which will make it tough for Hodes to make up the difference. But with a little bit of an uptick in Democratic turnout, it's doable.

Lets see the race settle out after the Republican Primary. I'd say this is still a good game to watch.

Six weeks ago, Rasmussen had this as 51-38 favoring Ayotte, so Hodes has made up 6 points in that time...and this poll was taken just after Ayotte won the primary and you would assume some degree of primary bump favoring the Republican. Still a ways to go, but this is a very good trend for Hodes.

Rasmussen has this race trending toward Hodes. This poll, unlike earlier polls, includes leaners and reflects whatever post-primary bounce Ayotte received, yet she still tops out at 51%. She's been in the upper 40s since January. Meanwhile, Hodes has seen his numbers steadily improve. He has also come from behind in the past (against Charlie Bass in 2006).

A question: Why does Rasmussen ask a question about Obama's job approval before asking the horserace question?

With Kelly over 50 this one is all but over. Hodes, an incumbent, at 44 with six weeks to go is likely too much ground in too little time.

Hodes is not the incumbent. The incumbent is a retiring Republican. True, Hodes holds another office; but so does Ayotte.

Jamesautomatic:

"...and this poll was taken just after Ayotte won the primary and you would assume some degree of primary bump favoring the Republican."

Given how close the primary vote was, I wonder how many of those answering the poll were even sure that Ayotte had won.

California:

"Rasmussen has this race trending toward Hodes. This poll, unlike earlier polls, includes leaners and reflects whatever post-primary bounce Ayotte received, yet she still tops out at 51%. She's been in the upper 40s since January. Meanwhile, Hodes has seen his numbers steadily improve. He has also come from behind in the past (against Charlie Bass in 2006)."

Yeah, if Ayotte only gets 51% of the vote, and all the rest go to Hodes, then Hodes should do very well. Somehow...

And. hey, it's not like anyone is expecting Republicans to do better this year than in 2006.