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NH: 2010 House (PPP 4/17-18)

Topics: New Hampshire , Poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/17-18/10; 647 likely 1st District voters, 3.9% margin of error
827 likely 2nd District voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 House First District
Guinta (R) 46%, Shea-Porter (D) 45%

2010 House Second District
Bass (R) 47%, Swett (D) 32%

Job Approval / Disapproval First District
Pres. Obama: 45 / 49
Rep. Shea-Porter: 41 / 50

Favorable / Unfavorable First District
Frank Guinta: 23 / 25

Job Approval / Disapproval Second District
Pres. Obama: 48 / 48

Favorable / Unfavorable Second District
Charlie Bass: 35 / 34
Katrina Swett: 19 / 29

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

NH is the only other northeast state besides PA where Obama's approval is underwater.

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Farleftandproud:

Shea porter is a well funded candidate in her own right, but perhaps Giunta can raise tons of money from Fox News from direct fundraising drives by Mr Huckabee amd Mr Hannity. So much for the fair and balanced, no spin zone.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

After the NY-23 debacle, I don't trust PPP outside its homebase in Hee-Haw country.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

By the way, over at Tom Jensen's post on this, one of the commenters pointed out that this poll is even more Democratic than in 2008. Jensen admits that he doesn't weight poll by parties. He also made the observation that the GOP is competitive even in OBAMA DISTRICTS like these two. The more Democratic of the two is the one Charles Bass(R) is winning by a lop-sided margin, and it's a D+3. Think about it: 69 D seats are in R+ districts alone. By the time you get to D+3 districts, that's an additional 37 D seats! That's enough to take one of Maine's seats, several in NY, a lot in OH, FL, GA, MI, etc.

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Farleftandproud:

NY 23 is actually He Hah country too. That one in Western MD where they hung in efigy on a noose during a town hall, is probably the redest district in a blue state. Murtha's district, Eastern Washington state and NY 29 would be up there to.

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jamesia:

I guess they don't like politicians in general in NH!

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Farleftandproud:

I predict that Maine is going to be safe for the House. In fact, Snowe and Collins are still popular but Maine voters were not pleased with their decision.

NH tends to be the most conservative New england state for a few reasons besides from the Live free or die slogan. It is much wealthier than VT or NH and the environment is good for business owners, with no sales tax. Property tax on the other hand is much higher than VT.

The other reasons have to do with the influence from the medical lobby up in Dartmouth which is a huge hospital serving Northern New England. The Union Leader is also a very conservative publication which carries a lot of weight. In many cities like Boston and NYC the largest paper tends to be very liberal, and the conservative alternatives are the Boston Herald and NY post. In Manchester, NH, the UNion leader is the biggest paper in the entire state.

Other NH papers tend to be more liberal, yet they are not very good journalists. They don't really offer any original stories and are never able to keep up with the late breaking news like the Union Leader.

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Farleftandproud:

I meant to say NH is wealthier than VT or Maine

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Paleo:

Swett won't be the nominee.

Those actually aren't bad numbers for Shea-Porter. She didn't poll that great in '08, but still won.

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Farleftandproud:

Interesting Obama polls lower in district 1 than 2. District 2 is much more rural. I think that will change because 1 is closer to the Boston media market.

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Stillow:

farleft - you seem to have an excuse for every single race showing a republican leading a democrat....which is most of them right now...your excuses range from racism to weatlh factors. You might want to consider that the country is saying NO to liberalism coming from the Dems right now.

All your justififications are simply wrong for why the republicans are whipping the Dems in polls right now....the people are rejecting radical left wing liberalism...and come November that rejection wll manifest tiself into a GOP takeover of Congress.

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Glenn Howes:

Is Charlie Bass really expected to be the Republican nominee in the 2nd district (my district)? He was the Congressman here before the Democratic takeover. Wonder how his opponent, Jennifer Horn, would poll.

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Paleo:

NH 2 is more Democratic than NH 1. So the Obama numbers are not surprising.

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Farleftandproud:

Stillow, I went to college just a stone's throw from Nashua and in many ways it is a lot like MASS. Unlike PA, OH or the South, I know these districts. The two media markets in NH come from either Boston and the Dartmouth area gets media from Burlington, VT. I have campaigned in those districts and know of where I speak.

I can't exactly have the same optimism in a state like Missouri, Arkansas or PA. I am not so familiar with the regional issues in those places as I am in a neighboring state.

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Farleftandproud:

I can also ad that the best thing for progressives in NH would be for Sarah Palin to campaign for these Republicans. I hope she does because once that happens, anyone seen as a moderate will suddenly be viewed as connected to the fringe.

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Field Marshal:

Keene State?

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Farleftandproud:

NH is a interesting state. I think it leans conservative for old fashioned fiscal reasons. It is not any more socially conservative than the rest of New England. It has a lot of people who have lived in Mass. who believe they are paying lower taxes, and they are right.

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