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NH: Obama 54, McCain 39 (Boston Globe/UNH-10/18-22)

Topics: PHome

The Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire Survey Center
10/18-22/2008, 725 likely voters, MoE +/-3.5%
Mode: Live survey interviewers
UNH results; Boston Globe presidential story, other races

New Hampshire
Obama 54, McCain 39

Senate: Shaheen (D) 49, Sununu (R) 36

Governor: Lynch (D) 67, Kenney (D) 17

 

Comments
Trosen:

I believe I said yesterday or the day before.. the poll that showed only a 4 point +O lead was bunk, and that subsequent polls would confirm this. Well, here's one.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

New Hampshire should go dark blue today, which would give Obama 272 EC votes, in his strong category alone.

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Trosen:

I should have specified, a 4 point lead in NH. I forget the pollster. But people here were hyperventilating (especially the McCain trolls), and I knew that was science fiction. Palin is about as popular as bubonic plague in NH.

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m913:

May I also point out who is *now* the "most popular governor in the US." Not Sarah.

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DTM:

The 4-point poll in NH was from Rasmussen (which, incidentally, was a one-day poll with exactly 700 LV, indicating a poll with little or no callbacks--see the PPP article on why that tends to lower Obama's numbers).

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Trosen:

DTM, thanks. One day polls are caca. And they don't always show a +R advantage, but they often do, as per the PPP article.

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mysticlaker:

I was with trosen the whole time. That RAS poll made no sense (all you had to do was see the independent number). This is more realistic. I think Obama wins +10 in NH. All you have to do is see where Maine went, and it was obvious what is going to happen in NH.

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carl29:

The "new" McCain is not the McCain that voters in NH wanted to see. If there is a place were Palin would really hurt McCain, that place is NH. Those people are Eastern Republicans, not Southern Republicans. Religion and conservative/social issues do not score big among their priorities. It's the economy, McCain!!!

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Michael:

I think this is one area where the Weld endorsement may have proved to be a huge deal.

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NHBlue:

For anyone who might bring up the primary upset (Polls for Obama, votes for Clinton) to discredit these numbers, both candidates were popular and many Dems I knew were on the fence for that reason. I think in the end, more ended up voting for Clinton (as a result of her emotional response at a diner maybe?). In other words, I doubt there'll be any last minute turn-around for McCain as there was for Obama. As for Palin... Trosen's wicked right. A funny-talkin' madwoman. Ayuh.

And to cinch it all: Boom remarked that McCain was "very popular" in NH. Which means that it's Obama here by a landslide, if Boomy's prediction record holds.

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Michael:

I don't think the NH polls were inaccurate, becasue Obama outperformed his poll numbers in the final vote count. People just completley misinterpreted what the pollls were saying, focused on the gap between the candidates, and ignored the undecideds. In this case, even if all undecideds break for McCain like they did for Clinton in the primary, it still won't change the outcome- this is why Obama's level of support, both here and nationally, is critical- once it's over 50%, the margin and the undecideds becomes nearly irrelevant.

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lhtk:

My skepticism on Rasmussen's polling has been growing lately, especially their state polls. It just seems like when Rasmussen had O up 52-44 nationally several times a few weeks ago, their state polls were also in a more Obama direction than they have been lately. I realize that these don't have to be 1 to 1 relationships, but based on other state polls (like this one re NH), I think there's reason to doubt them a little more. The one day polling reasoning is something I'll watch for as well, thanks.

But as soon as I say all that, I'm also remembering that they recently had O up +10 in VA, where it seems like even prOBama folks insist it's closer. Guess we just have to keep working . . .

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PlayingItStraight:

UNH did have O +9 the day before primary. If you look at confidence intervals, the two polls do overlap at between O+8 to o+11.

As to multiple day polls vs one day polls -- open to debate unless you actually know something about how many of the responses occurred each day and what those results were.

Important to distinguish between tracking polls that take equal numbers (roughly) each day vs. a total over three days that may not be equally distributed.

Rasmussen had Obama +7 at roughly the same point in time.

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Atomique:

Having been on the ground canvassing in NH, I get the impression that McCain really isn't playing well over there. The people I talked to seemed really interested in the issues (esp. the economy), not the same old stupid character games. There's really only one candidate who has kept his campaign focused on addressing the issues with consistent, thought-out policy plans, and that certainly reflected itself in the relative support for Obama versus McCain I saw there.

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boomshak:

Rasmussen says this is 4 point race. This poll is bullsh*t. Fail. Next.

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mrut:

I've canvassed in NH for the last 8 out of 9 Saturdays. There was initially a reservoir of goodwill for McCain but that turned when he picked Palin. NH does NOT like Palin. She only hurts McCain here. As a result, the Democrats have picked up more independents and the Republicans are unenthused. GOTV will be important for the Democrats, but they definitely have an easier time of it than Republicans.

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