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NH: The View from Monday Afternoon

Topics: 2008 , New Hampshire , The 2008 Race

It's been quite a day for new poll releases. We now have new results from 11 different organizations that continued based on interviews in New Hampshire through Sunday, with two more that wrapped up calling on Saturday. As such, I have updated my table from yesterday's post on the size of the Obama bump.

01-07 NH bump.png

Across all of the polls that interviewed through Sunday night, Obama leads by an average of eight percentage points (37% to 29%), by slightly less (36% to 29%) if we also include the two polls that completed on Saturday. These averages are a near perfect match for our standard and sensitive estimates respectively. In terms of the Obama "bump," his support has gained an average of 8 percentage points; his net gain (the difference in the margins Obama's gain minus Clinton's decline) averages 13 points.

Obviously, Obama's margin has expanded from what we reported yesterday. Add to that the obvious increase since last week and the large number of voters still uncertain about their choice (20% "still trying to make up their minds" on the CNN/WMUR/UNH survey), we should assume that Obama's advantages will likely continue to grow over the next 24 hours.

Charles Franklin should have more soon, including a closer graphic look at the final trends.

 

Comments
Terry Housholder:

The first politician I ever shook hands with was Sen. Robert Kennedy, 40 years ago. RFK inspired me then. I feel the same passion in the junior senator from Illinois. He's the real deal.

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Prantha:

I met RFK too. (Well, that's not quite true: I was in a huge crowd along a short road at the Ambassador, and - at about 15 people deep - my dad held me up so that I could kinda see him pass by and shake peoples' hands. I was a short little kid.) The energy in that RFK crowd was just like the energy I have experienced recently in Obama's crowds.

I volunteered for Obama's first rally in Los Angeles back in February 2007. He was inspirational way back then, and he has not changed since he became a rock star.

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Tony V:

Turnout.

Do any of these polls have different assumptions or conclusions regarding turnout?

Obama's Iowa win was in part due to the huge Iowa turnout, and this site pointed out how the only poll that got the results right was also the only one that accurately predicted turnout.

So is there any discussion going on about what the appropriate way to measure turnout in this cycle is?

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J-Bo:

Small mathematical point: when you say that Obama's "net gain" is "Obama's gain minus Clinton's decline", you really mean "Obama's gain *plus* Clinton's decline", or "Obama's gain minus Clinton's *gain*", right?

Obama's gain: +8
Clinton's decline: +5
Clinton's gain: -5

Obama's gain minus Clinton's decline = +3 (incorrect)
Obama's gain plus Clinton's decline = +13 (correct)
Obama's gain minus Clinton's gain = +13 (correct)

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Mark Blumenthal:

J-Bo: Yes, you're right. Sorry about that.

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