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NH-Gov: 42% Lynch (D), 40% Stephen (R) (ARG 9/22-26)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

American Research Group
9/22-26/10; 800 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: live telephone interview
(ARG Release)

New Hampshire

2010 Governor
42% Lynch (D), 40% Stephen (R), 4% Babiarz (L) (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Republicans were overpolled by 4 points in both races. NH is more Republican than the other new England states, but the poll had more Republicans polled. NH polls have about 5 percent more registered Democrats than Republicans, and I can tell you that the loyal Dems will not stay home in the midterms in NH. It is really the indepenents who matter the most.

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Glenn Howes:

According to the Secretary of State of New Hampshire's office, there are slightly more Republicans registered to vote in New Hampshire than Democrats.

Republican: 270,705
Democrat: 266,908
Undeclared: 383,072
Total:920,685

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Farleftandproud:

Wow. It took less time for NH voters to give up on Obama, than PA or Ohio. I stand corrected.

Actually, NH can be misleading. It probably hasn't changed that much, but I think some of the polls of NH in the past included leaners.

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Farleftandproud:

I never realized when I looked at the partisan index in the two districts of NH, that the Eastern district was more Republican than the western District. The eastern one has Nashua and Manchester and is close to Boston and the northern/western one is more rural.

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Glenn Howes:

I commute to Cambridge, MA from beautiful Nashua, NH. Best town in the Northeast, IMHO.

This poll also has Rep. Shea-Porter losing to the Republican nominee Mayor Guinta by 10, and former Rep. Bass beating the Democratic nominee Kuster by 2. The first is surprisingly (to me) wide, and the second is surprisingly narrow.

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Farleftandproud:

I like Shea-Porter. I would be ashamed if they voted her out. I think she would probably win it back in 2 years.

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Farleftandproud:

In my book, the Tea party and water moccasins have one thing in common; I would prefer both of them will remain in the south and stay there.

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Dave:

Paleo, on Rasmussen showing this race as D+2 a week ago:
"One of Rass's yeah, right, whatever, polls."

Well, well, well.

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Aaron_in_TX:

I'll just note that ARG was the notorious pollster that got the New Hampshire primary COMPLETELY wrong. Their handle on that state should be questioned.

The last poll for NH-1 we have was UNH and it showed Shea-Porter up by 5. But until we get someone else to poll this I have to change this to lean R.

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