NH-Gov: 42% Lynch (D), 40% Stephen (R) (ARG 9/22-26)
Emily Swanson | September 27, 2010
Topics: New Hampshire , poll
American Research Group
9/22-26/10; 800 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: live telephone interview
(ARG Release)
New Hampshire
2010 Governor
42% Lynch (D), 40% Stephen (R), 4% Babiarz (L) (chart)
By Emily Swanson | September 27, 2010 3:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
Republicans were overpolled by 4 points in both races. NH is more Republican than the other new England states, but the poll had more Republicans polled. NH polls have about 5 percent more registered Democrats than Republicans, and I can tell you that the loyal Dems will not stay home in the midterms in NH. It is really the indepenents who matter the most.
Posted on September 27, 2010 3:13 PM
According to the Secretary of State of New Hampshire's office, there are slightly more Republicans registered to vote in New Hampshire than Democrats.
Republican: 270,705
Democrat: 266,908
Undeclared: 383,072
Total:920,685
Posted on September 27, 2010 3:24 PM
Wow. It took less time for NH voters to give up on Obama, than PA or Ohio. I stand corrected.
Actually, NH can be misleading. It probably hasn't changed that much, but I think some of the polls of NH in the past included leaners.
Posted on September 27, 2010 3:34 PM
I never realized when I looked at the partisan index in the two districts of NH, that the Eastern district was more Republican than the western District. The eastern one has Nashua and Manchester and is close to Boston and the northern/western one is more rural.
Posted on September 27, 2010 3:39 PM
I commute to Cambridge, MA from beautiful Nashua, NH. Best town in the Northeast, IMHO.
This poll also has Rep. Shea-Porter losing to the Republican nominee Mayor Guinta by 10, and former Rep. Bass beating the Democratic nominee Kuster by 2. The first is surprisingly (to me) wide, and the second is surprisingly narrow.
Posted on September 27, 2010 3:54 PM
I like Shea-Porter. I would be ashamed if they voted her out. I think she would probably win it back in 2 years.
Posted on September 27, 2010 4:12 PM
In my book, the Tea party and water moccasins have one thing in common; I would prefer both of them will remain in the south and stay there.
Posted on September 27, 2010 4:23 PM
Paleo, on Rasmussen showing this race as D+2 a week ago:
"One of Rass's yeah, right, whatever, polls."
Well, well, well.
Posted on September 27, 2010 4:50 PM
I'll just note that ARG was the notorious pollster that got the New Hampshire primary COMPLETELY wrong. Their handle on that state should be questioned.
The last poll for NH-1 we have was UNH and it showed Shea-Porter up by 5. But until we get someone else to poll this I have to change this to lean R.
Posted on September 27, 2010 11:10 PM
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