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NH-Sen: 46% Ayotte (R), 32% Hodes (D) (ARG 9/22-26)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

American Research Group
9/22-26/10; 800 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interview
(ARG release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate
46% Ayotte (R), 32% Hodes (D), 1% Blevens (L), 1% Booth (I) (chart)

 

Comments
Bob in SJ:

I'd like to see another poll to confirm this, but it's not out of the question. Hodes is a poor campaigner.

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Farleftandproud:

What the hell good is a poll when only 80 percent of the people are polled? I've sort of given up on this race.

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Bob in SJ:

@ FLAP

The rest are undecided,I assume.

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Field Marshal:

Yes, and its good to show that there are still a significant amount of likely voters that haven't made up their minds. That's why its good.

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Farleftandproud:

The poll clearly favors Ayotte, but if 20 percent are undecided, there is still hope for Hodes. NH and NC are too states where the polls have changed dramatically in the past 2 election cycles. Actually in 2004, Kerry was behind in many polls in WI and NH, yet he pulled it out.

I would predict that Feingold has a much better shot than Hodes. Ayotte, Hoeven(Not a competitive race but decent candidate) and Portman in Ohio, from what I know of them are the three GOP candidates in the competitive races for senate are the three candidates of the Republicans I like the best or could live with.

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jmartin4s:

What concerns me about this poll is it has Hodes losing his own congressional district. I think Ayotte will likely win by high single digits and Lynch will win by low double digits we shall see.

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VermontWisdom:

For those on the right gloating, you may want to check this out about ARG. I cannot vouch for the accuracy but it sure is interesting.

In 2000, the headline on an AP day-before-the-primary story was "Nearing the N.H. finish line; Polls declare GOP dead heat. . . . " John McCain then went on to beat George W. Bush by 18 percentage points.
The New Hampshire-based American Research Group's tracking poll ended up buried deepest in the snow bank: They had Bush winning by two the day before the primary, merely 20 points off the mark. On the Democratic side, the losing pollster at least got the winner right: The Quinnipiac poll predicted Gore would win by 17 percentage points, but he actually won by four.

It was the second debacle for ARG in as many New Hampshire Republican primaries. The day before the 1996 contest, ARG's Dick Bennett told the Union Leader, "It looks like Dole's going to win," based on the Kansan's seven point advantage in their tracking poll. He didn't, losing to Pat Buchanan by a single percentage point.


http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html

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Farleftandproud:

Did you mean Bush had a 17 point lead in 2000? Bush actually won NH narrowly. Kerry won it in 2004.

I predict this will be close, and I think that Hodes will be within a few points of victory by election day. As for the House, I think Shea Porter may lose, but Hodes seat will stay Democratic. Surprisingly, some of the more suburban areas are more conservtive than the rural ones in NH.

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Farleftandproud:

NH has not usually voted for hardline social conservatives, but Pat Buchanan did win the GOP nomination for President in 1996

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VermontWisdom:

Farleft they were talking about the presidential primaries in 2000.

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Aaron_in_TX:

ARG also famously got wrong the NH 2008 dem primary. Just saying.

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