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NJ: 2009 Gov (Quinnipiac-6/3-8)


Quinnipiac University
6/3-8/09; 1,338 registered voters, 2.7% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

New Jersey

Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama (D): 68 / 25 (chart)
Gov. Corzine (D): 36 / 56 (chart)
Sen. Lautenberg (D): 44 / 36 (chart)
Sen. Menendez (D): 40 / 31 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Gov. Jon Corzine (D): 35 / 53 (chart)
Chris Christie (R): 36 / 16

2009 Governor
Christie 46, Gov. Corzine 37
Likely VOters: Christie 50, Gov. Corzine 40 (chart)

Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

    37% Yes/Deserves
    55% No/Does not

(source)

 

Comments
Stillow:

This makes the umpteenth poll in a row showing Christie with a huge lead over Corzine....sorry Dems, but Corzine is finished.

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BobinOakland:

@Stillow,

A few points, in my opinion:

1) 9-10 points is not a huge lead.

2) Christie is still experiencing a primary victory bump

3) Christie is still unknown by 48% of voters, leaving Corzine plenty of room for negative campaigning

Now, of course we can dispute what these things mean in the long term, and with five months to the election Corzine's got considerable ground to make up, but it is not over yet. If these numbers stay stable through early September, then I'm worried, but right now, not really.

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Stillow:

These days a 10 point lead is huge...Obama won by less than 7 and it was considered a landslide....

The imporant number in this poll is a majoirty does not feel he deserves another term...that # had to be below 50 for him to have a shot...its at 55...not a good sign...and Christie being a prosecutor will have the perception of him being tough on corruption where Corzine is seen buried in it. Unless there is a smoking gun on Christie he is going to win this race and win it easily...I'd say by 5+.

I do not see it as a bump, Christie has led corzine for a long time now when they were polled against eachother...

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BobinOakland:

I suppose we'll have to wait for a few polls to see where this is going.

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4xfloor:

"Obama won by less than 7"

Just one of numerous errors and fallacies in Stillow's post.

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Stillow:

hahahah, sorry, I forget soemtimes how sensitive some of you libs are, I meant 8, not 7...but Robi is not stupid, he knew it was a typo. Next time I will try and be more considerate of your feelings and correct the tpo quicker.

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Inkan1969:

Stillow:

10% as opposed to much wider margins before the primaries, when Christie was much lower profile. I think Corzine is in a good position to close that gap by November with a good campaign effort, taking advantange of the NJ public realizing how much of a right wing sicko Christie.

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Stillow:

I guess its possible I will hit the lottery this weekend too. You're ignoring that 55 don't think he deserves another chance. He's run the state into the ground...as blue as NJ is, that means a majoirty of Dems think he is doing a very poor job. Also both his approval and unfavorables are above 50. There will have to be a smoking gun for Christie to lose this. NJ is a state that may be ready for a change, liberals have bankrupt that state andthe people are only going to let you smack them i nthe face so many times...NJ is ready to flip. Christie is actaully a strong candidate and his numbers look very very promising. The Dems screwed up by not booting Corzine out for a more qualified and popular Dem.

Its not uncommon for a blue state to throw in a red guy and for red states to throw i na blue guy when the previous occupant was lousy. Just look around, tons of very red states have blue govenrors and senators and many blue states have red senators and governors...Corzine will beat himself in this race allowing Christie to take it.

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Bigmike:

While there is still a long time until election day, Corzine is in a deep hole. It is almost impossible to win with unfavorable numbers over 50.

Favorable is no guarantee that someone will vote for you. Unfavorable is pretty much a lock that they won't vote for you.

But he does have some time to move the numbers.

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Inkan1969:

Corzine's in a hole, but I think he has the time to dig himself out of the hole if he works hard from day one. There's also plenty of time for Christie to dig his own hole. I don't think the odds are that bad against him; winning the lottery would be a better analogy for Obama winning Wyoming in 2012 instead. Plenty of states have opposite-color governors, but most of those governors are moderates. William Weld was moderate; Mitt Romney was slammed for turning harder right when he ran for prez. I bet Sibelius from Kansas wasn't hard line leftist either. So Christie looks way too far right for New Jersey to elect, even if it means putting up with Corzine again.

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