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NJ: Christie 42 Corzine 35 (Neighborhood 10/27-29)


Neighborhood Research (R)
10/27-29/09; 341 likely voters, 5.3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Neighborhood release)

New Jersey

2009 Governor
Christie 42%, Corzine 35%, Daggett 8% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jon Corzine: 26 / 48 (chart)
Chris Christie: 34 / 25
Chris Daggett: 11 / 12

 

Comments
Stillow:

Polling on this race is just mad. Christie up, Corzine up....ties....totally crazy. No consistancy in hte polling at all this close to election day....Uusally in the last week pollsters move to report accurate numbers to maintain credibility. But there are polls showing totally oppositte results everywhere on this race. No consistancey or real pattern to it.

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Xenobion:

Agreed. I think the Daggett expectations are throwing a wrench in everything. Are people going to default to Christie or stay Dagget?

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Polaris:

Stillow. I think the reason for this is simple. Live Interviewing polls are getting a different set of data than IPV polls. I have been told (but haven't been able to independantly verify) that the NJ unions are employing extreme strong arm measures to try to boost Corzine (as in vote for Corzine or lose your job and your limb(s)).

If so, that would explain the discrepency.

-Polaris

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IdahoMulato:

But for years no pollster has been able to poll NJ correctly. We're going to have a long night on Tuesday Nov. 3rd.

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tjampel:

Republican pollster, small sample, 15% undecided, and favorables completely out of wack with all other pollsters; for example Christie at 34/25 when all other pollsters have him about even or in negative territory.

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Stillow:

Polaris

Strong arm tactics won't work in the voting booth though. If that is true then polling could be artificially high for Corzine. I think X is right, Dagget is just screwing up all hte polling on this race.

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platanoman:

THis is a Republican poll by the way...

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conspiracy:

I still think too much is being made of IVR versus live callers. The three IVR companies show it Christie (Rasmussen), Christie (PPP), Tie (Survey USA).

The non-IVR polls say Christie (Neighborhood), Corzine (Zogby), Corzine or Christie (FD), Christie (R2k), Corzine (DCorps), Corzine (Q), Corzine (Suffolk), Corzine (Rutgers), Tie (Monmouth), Corzine (NYT), Christie (Penn). There is no particularly pattern except possibly that the Dems say Corzine, the Repubs Christie. Except PPP and Kos also say Christie. Anyway, all pretty much within the margin of error and a late night is coming Tuesday.

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Bigmike:

Every poll I recall, at least in the last few weeks, is within MOE. Statistical dead heat.

That usually means the winner is decided by GOTV and in union heavy NJ I would think that gives the Dems an edge.

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Stillow:

An important number that doesn't get much attention is the high watermarks....Christie has much higher water marks than Corzine does. That tells me the number of people at least willing to consider voting for christie is larger than the number of people who would consider voting for corzine.

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Polaris:

Stillow,

I agree and this latebreaking toll story isn't helping Corzine either. Might be enough to get people that were polling for Christie to vote for him.

We'll see, but I'd be very concerned right now if I were Corzine.

-Polaris

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RaleighNC:

Corzine cannot be happy with ANY of these polls. These types of elections always come down to how strong the anti-incumbent mood is. Bad news for Corzine.

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