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NJ: Christie 42 Corzine 41 (Kos 10/26-28)


DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
10/26-28/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jon Corzine: 38 / 55 (chart)
Chris Christie: 43 / 46
Chris Daggett: 35 / 16
Barack Obama: 63 / 33 (chart)

2009 Governor
Christie 42%, Corzine 41%, Daggett 14% (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

This race is a huge nailbiter. Obama and party regulars for the Dems need to focus on this race a lot this weekend. It is a real nail biter. Corzine has incumbency to his advantage and it is too bad Hillary Clinton isn't in the country. If she were, her presence would seal Chrstie's fate. African American activists in NJ and NYC need to get out this weekend and get huge turnout in areas like Newark, Patterson and Elizabeth. Christie unlike Mcdonnell in Virginia isn't as much of a ideological conservative on traditional values issues, however he is pro-life and will get that base out to vote. Dems if they show up, Corzine should win. A GOP sweep is not the message we want to send to them. If the GOP does win both races, however, it will be a good wakeup call for progressives that the celebrating of Obama's success is over! We have to remember how we felt after Bush's re-election in 2004 and failure with hurricane Katrina. We can't forget the deciept the GOP leaders tricked the American people into Iraq. To all fellow progressive and moderate Democrats all over the US, that we can't slack off. 2006 was the beginning of a huge momentum shift in the right direction; I also remember the 1994 momentum shift in the opposite direction. Conservatives are already preparing for a repeat of that. Times have changed, demographics have changed and even though voting is one's personal right, we must encourage all our friends, family and those who hate politics to convince them our country's future is dependent on it.

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Farleftandproud:

This poll is for Likely voters. Corzine can win this thing, if the same people who came out for Obama last nov. come out for Corzine. He isn't my favorite politician in the world and he is no Barack Obama, but just to send a message to the GOP, I encourage all progressives to vote early, volunteer this weekend and get a good turnout. The GOP next tuesday night will hopefully only have a partial celebration.

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The Moderator:

This is a good poll for Christie, but I will say that the party distro is little weird.

DEMOCRATS 158 26%
REPUBLICANS 80 13%
INDEPENDENTS/OTHER 362 61%

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lat:

Hey Stillow,

Take a look at the release from Kos and read the portion about undecided voters. You will notice that the majority of them are black and hispanic which bodes quite well for Corzine. Instead of calling me a racist for pointing out facts why don't you try to help your conservative base figure out how to start winning these voters? Like I have said a thousand times you cannot consistently lose 80-95% of the black vote and 60-75% of the hispanic vote and expect to win. Change the playbook.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Stu Rothenberg pointed out that even if democrats win NJ and the NY-23 race, it will be due to 3rd party candidates. That's how the republicans will spin it, so it's a lose-lose.

I think that people read way too much into these off-year races. It's like overanalyzing the pre-season. Republicans were spinning the GA Senate runoff just a few weeks after Obama won, saying the D's surge was a fluke. Candidates matter in these things. Turnout is too low to make any broad generalizations.

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Pazienza:

From Bill Plascoe at CQ Politics:

Two things are likely to happen over the coming six days:

First, the number of Daggett supporters will recede further, as more and more of them conclude that he cannot win and move to their second choice -- and more of them will go to Christie than to Corzine.

Second, when the (fewer) remaining Daggett supporters enter the voting booth next Tuesday, the bet here is that a majority of them will do one final gut check, decide that their highest priority in casting their ballot is to remove Corzine from office, rather than send a message about the intellectual vacuity of either the Republican or Democratic campaign, and they will act accordingly -- and pull the lever for Christie.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/in_the_right/2009/10/pascoe-2.html

Looks like the 2009/2010 Republican Tsunami is about to hit.

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Stillow:

Again with the race thing lat.....is there nothing else you have other than black and hispanic voters to lean on? Your like a broken record. The Dems lose 60-70 percent of the white vote....doI bring that up? No, because I don't view this thing in terms of race. they are voters. Only you libs judge people based on race, I do not....perhaps its my flaw, but I am not able to compute the way you think......people are people to me. i hate stupid people equally, no matter there color.

You libs look at a black guy and say hey, look at that black guy....I see a balck guy and say hey look at that guy.

By the way, Obama is just as much white as he is black.................................

Please lat, drop the race crap.

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RAG2:

Why don't YOU, Stillow? By the way, Democrats DO NOT lose that much of the white vote, except maybe in the South. If they did, they wouldn't be consistently and solidly WINNING in the Northeast, Pacific Coast, and Upper Midwest for 5 straight presidential elections! It's the Lower Midwest, not the South, which decides these elections anymore. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama didn't need the Southern state they'd won to win nationally--so well they'd done everywhere else; Gore would have won, even without Florida if he'd carried one more state anywhere (like NH, which went Dem in the 2 prev and 2 subseq elections), and Kerry would have won if he'd gotten Ohio--all this with no Southern support.

But even in the South, things are changing. In any case, the fact remains nationally that Republican candidates need to win greater and greater majorities of white voters just to break ever with Dems because America is becoming less white every day--and the Republican's message of free-market fundamentalism and religious fundamentalism doesn't appeal to most non-whites--or even, perhaps, to most whites OUTSIDE the South; certainly not to most whites under 30. Voters under 30 are turning out in greater and greater percentages every 4 years, are more likely to call themselves "liberal" than "conservative", and vote increasingly Democratic. That why John Kerry almost defeated Dubya and Barack Obama soundly defeated John McCain. The fact is, winning the white vote--and in particular the white Southern vote--simply isn't enough for Republicans anymore.

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Stillow:

Sorry, I am just not able to judge people based on color like you libs are. My brain does not function that way. But just to relay numbers, in 2004 Bush carried 44 percent of hispanics.....how is that a massive failure? The GOP routinely carries 60+ pecent of white voters......I see nothing wrong with carrying 40+ percent of hispanic voters.2008 was a democratic year....you libs seem to think its some for liberalism. Obama won because there was a recession...he was eleted to fix the economy.

Stop judging people based on skin color, tht makes you racist. We are americans...we vote on any given election based on the circumstances of that election. Judge me not by the color of my skin, but by the content of my character....remember that? So knock it off with the race baiting crap.

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