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NJ: Christie 43 Corzine 40 (SurveyUSA 10/5-7)


SurveyUSA
10/5-7/09; 639 likely voters, +/- 4% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(SurveyUSA release)

New Jersey

2009 Governor
Christie (R) 43%, Corzine (D) 40%, Daggett 14% Other/Und 3% (chart)

 

Comments
tjampel:

Interesting tidbit. Still not clear that Daggett's the cause of Corzine's woes.

"Who is independent Daggett hurting more? Of those who voted for Corzine in 2005, 67% stick with Corzine in 2009. 17% of 2005 Corzine voters crossover to Republican Christie in 2009; 13% vote Daggett. Of those who voted for Corzine's 2005 Republican opponent, Doug Forrester, 82% vote for Republican Christie in 2009; 4% defect to Corzine; 14% vote Daggett."

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Publius:

Corzine needs to firm up his core supporters. Obama should help that with a few visits.

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Stillow:

I will be surprised if Dagget gets more than 10 percent on election day. I still think Christie is going to win this with about 43-45 percent of the vote with Corzine getting 38-42 percent.

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Stillow:

Does anyone know how much money each campaign has spent? I assume Corzine with his perosnal wealth has outspent Christie quite a bit? But I would like to see the numbers on that.

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jmartin4s:

No way men have a 51 49 voting edge in NJ so
I recrunched the numbers for men vs woman
I was very conservative in my estimate giving woman a 51 to 49 edge over men considering that PPP did 53 to 47 and CNN exit polls had 54 to 46.
The new results
Christie 42%
Corzine 41%
Daggett 14%
Other 1%
Undecided 2%
Corzine can absolutely win this if he keeps pushing the mamograms issue.


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tjampel:

The Dem/Repub spread is also kind of small in this survey. Nice catch on the M/F ratio. 51/49 is very conservative.

This is getting within MOE but need another poll or two with Corzine up or even to make me believe it.

I expect what NJ voters expect on election day; a Corzine win...by a hair or two.

Many people just won't vote; it's an off-year cycle; we'll see who the core voters are; perhaps Christie wins because he brings out the base better than Corzine.

My understanding is that Corzine has/will outspend Christie by a significant margin. Look for large media buys over the last 3 weeks. It's a terribly expensive market for TV (Philly and NYC) and Corzine has the dough.

I don't think Obama will help much; too many things up in the air right now.

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Xenobion:

From the Star-Ledger

Gov. Jon Corzine has dug into his own pocket to pay the lion's share of a nearly $17 million campaign push that has helped him rebound in the polls against Republican Chris Christie.

Christie, who is using public financing to pay for his campaign, has brought in $9.6 million, including $5.8 million in matching funds from state coffers. Independent candidate Chris Daggett, who is also receiving public financing, spent $954,668, the latest reports show

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Stillow:

We'll find out if cold hard cash can still buy elections in this country....but I don't think so in this case.

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lat:

A new poll by Democracy Corps that has not posted here yet has Corzine ahead 41-38. Uh-Oh, I can see Stillow starting to break a sweat now. The deep blue tide in NJ is coming home to roost. As for VA it is interesting to note that the party who occupies the White House has not won the governorship in for many years so if McDonnell wins it would be in keeping with that tradition.

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tjampel:

Well....I said I'd need two polls to convince me we're all tied up. That's one. Democracy Corps, despite it's obviously Dem affiliation, is known for producing polling results that are pretty much down the center. They have shown less house effect than Repub polling outfits.

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tjampel:

Needless to say, if we're all tied up now that shows a real implosion, rather than erosion, for the Christie campaign.

I think this could really be very much like Franken-Coleman where both candidates had pretty tepid support frothem pulling the level for Barkley. I do think Daggett will get more than 10%, and many others will simply stay home

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RaleighNC:

Who's base is more motivated? That'll be the one who wins. My prediction? Christie by a 2% margin. *gulp*

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tjampel:

@ RaleighNC

In the latest poll Christie's favorability dropped to 32%. Anything lower than that and all the motivation in the world won't make a lot of difference. If Corzine pulls this out after the "perfect storm" that he's had to battle for the past year the Repub Party is going to be kicking themselves for letting this get away.

Last week I would have agreed with you on the 2% Christie win but, hey, he's not just bleeding support, he's spewing it.

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RaleighNC:

@tjampel...

That new "weighty" ad by Corzine is really over the top. It'll do him no favors. It's a momentum stopper, so that's why I think Christie will pull this out. Besides, Corzine should be the last person bringing up car accidents.

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