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NJ: Christie 43 Corzine 43 (SurveyUSA 10/26-28)


SurveyUSA / WABC-TV
10/26-28/09; 640 likely & actual voters
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

New Jersey

2009 Governor
43% Christie, 43% Corzine, 11% Daggett (chart)

 

Comments
The Moderator:

From this poll, we know that if you're from Jersey and you're a Springsteen fan, chances are you're voting for Corzine.

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Stillow:

Well this poll certainly clears things up...............................

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RaleighNC:

Christie will win in a squeaker. However, to do so, he MUST carry Northwestern Jersey by 6 points or more. I believe, at the end of the day, Daggett's voters will not be able to pull the lever for him.

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tjampel:

Of those who already voted 8% voted for Daggett. As Daggett's stock went up in the past 2 weeks and some folks voted prior to that it stands to reason that we may see 8-9% for Daggett.

Different pollsters have different ratios for Christie/Corzine %s from Daggett supporters who pull the lever for someone else. If it's just 1/4 or so of Daggett's supporters that actually do this and if the avg ratio is is 4/3 or so, based on what I've seen, we're talking about a less than 1% difference overall. But don't forget that some may just stay home; it's off year anyway; lots of people will stay home; this is not one of the more enthusiastic races I've seen.

On the other hand those who've already voted say they've favored Corzine by 5%; if that is any kind of predictor for upcoming voting patterns that would more than offset disaffected Daggett voters.

It's really too hard right now to tell who's going to get out and vote, though Christie voters seem to be more sure of their choice. Being sure is different than being willing to get out and vote. GOTV will win or lose this race.

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Philippe Magnan:

"GOTV will win or lose this race."

Indeed.

So Corzy's winning it.

Becausee the corrupt New Jersey Democratic electoral machine, fueled by Union thugs, Corzine money, WH advisers and some petty fraudsters, will assure that the bearded financial wizard can squeak in.

I'm literally bettin' on it!

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