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NJ: Christie 45 Corzine 42 (SurveyUSA 10/30-11/1)


SurveyUSA / WABC-TV
10/30-11/1/09; 582 likely & actual voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

New Jersey

2009 Governor
Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, Daggett 10% (chart)

 

Comments
Polaris:

Another confirmation poll showing a late surge (which I interpret as cystalization) towards Christie. This same poll was tied last week.

-Polaris

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platanoman:

This could go either way. I am checking out the polls of Franken vs. Coleman. This is pretty similar trend. We will see.

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Polaris:

Plat,

Except that Coleman didn't have the polling trend his direction just before the election (Franken did actually which was appropriate for a Dem heavy year).

I am seeing some pretty consistant Christie momentum in almost all of the polling.

-Polaris

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How about the fact that 14% have already voted and Corzine leads there by 12 points? Also, the southern NJ data seems out of whack. It shows Eagles fans in favor of Corzine but the Philly land segment of NJ going for Christie. How is that possible?

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Polaris:

nelcon,

So what? The Dems have pushed early voting hard since at least 2002. I'd be astounded if Corzine didn't have the early vote lead.

Near as I can tell, this early vote lead with very small sample sizes in the polls that ask this crosstab question means little if anything.

I also note you are relying on a "New Jersey" effect.

Please just admit that you are rooting for Corzine in spite of the direction the recent polls seem to be taking.

-Polaris

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Polaris:

Nelcon,

I think this answers which one of us "knew" NJ better. Enough said.

-Polaris

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