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NJ: Christie 46 Corzine 43 (Rasmussen 10/29)


Rasmussen
10/29/09; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

New Jersey

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 / 44 (chart)
Gov. Corzine: 41 / 58 (chart)

2009 Governor
46% Christie, 43% Corzine, 8% Daggett (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Christie (R): 48 / 50
Corzine (D): 44 / 54 (chart)
Daggett (i): 37 / 47

 

Comments
Polaris:

Very bad poll for Corzine, not just the top line but the trend in the internals is disturbing for Corzine when compared with the prior Ras poll.

-Polaris

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Xenobion:

I suspect Dagget will go down from the 17% that he was once polling but I dunno if it'll be as low as 8%.

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Stillow:

This really is remarkable Christie is even in this race. Corzine has outspent by a bajillion, Corzine has the backing of Jersey democratic machine, Corzine has Obama campaigning for him...NJ is a deeply blue state with a 700,000 democratic voeter registration advantage....yet here we are, dead even 4 days before the election.

If a conservative republican can win in NJ, then what's next?

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platanoman:

Umm, Polaris. It's the same results? How is this worst? You have to be kidding me.

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tjampel:

I've looked at the limited data Ras makes available to non-subscribers. Anyone looked at the crosstabs, which would should something disturbing?

Actually Corzine's favorables are higher here than in other polls and Christie is under 50% here. Fact is that Corzine's faves have improved over the past month in Ras polls and Christie's have gone down.

Right now the race is tied. Unless someone shows me some real shift as evidenced by crosstabs there's no basis to state that the race has changed in any fundamental way from the previous poll. The fact that Christie is up by 3 twice in a row DOES show that Ras' likely voter screen probably prefers Christie slightly. I have no way of knowing if that translates to a win, when other pollsters have it all over the place.

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Stillow:

Corzine shifted to a negative bases campaign against Christie. Despite all the whining everyone does about it, negative camapigning is effective. Its natural to see a decrease in Christie faves because of it.

In practical terms this race is a dead tie...nearly allthe polls lately are within the MOE.....so I still hve to give the edge to Christie as the GOP and conservatives will be much more enrgized to go vote than the Dems will. Dems do not like Corzine, so the motivation is not there...and Obama is not on the ballot to help. But if Dagget voters defect to there #2 choice, I think this thing could get away from Corzine awfully quickly on election night.

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tjampel:

Stillow, what do you make of the fact that those who've already voted favor Corzine by 7%? That doesn't seem to bear out your enthusiasm argument. People who vote early tend to be enthusiastic. For example,Obama got lots of early votes and kept things going on election day. Yes, some people just don't like to go to polls, so it's hard to draw any definite conclusion.

You've said nothing about GOTV. Is it because you don't know which operation is better in NJ? (I certainly don't right now, though I live across the river from it).

Your commments about Daggett deserters are unsupported by data; it appears to add 1% to Christie's totals if Daggett's totals go from 8% to say 4%, and, true that could win the election for him; on the other hand we don't know which Daggett voters will show up at the polls and which will just sit this one out.

Christie's a weak candidate who's totally blown what should have been an easy race. People prefer him on a variety of issues but one he loses on every time is ability to govern and leadership/experience. He doesn't come across as a great or even decent State executive, so people are faced with one candidate who knows how to lead and who's seen as having led NJ citizens into debt and high taxes (Corzine) and another who people don't have faith in as a leader.

Right now Christie's showing no letting up as a bad candidate. Lately he's been going on the air screaming about Corzine making fun of his weight, for the umpteenth time, each time giving viewers more opportunities to see the "he's throwing his weight around" ads. Smart move!. Furthermore he's now come out again and claimed he wasn't really driving the wrong way on a one-way street when he struck a motorcyclist; another smart move by contradicting the cop who claimed he was doing just doing that.

I think he had bottomed out; these kinds of "stupid" will only cause him to sink further. I stick with my 2%; you've got your Christie by 4. I've no idea who will come closer; they're both partisan bets.

One final note; I'd like to recommend Christie's campaign manager for Mike Huckabee's 2012 campaign (but only after he's nominated).

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Polaris:

tj,

I completely expect that those that have already voted favor Corzine. I would be astonished if it was any other way. Corzine has the support of the Dem machine (union voting and DCCC) and they both heavily emphasize early voting and have since the early 2000s.

The fact is that Corzine is strongly disliked and right now is tied with his challenger before election day. In most cases the tie will go to the challenger (i.e. the vote will break to the challenger). It doesn't always work out that way (presidential race in 2004), but it is the way to bet.

-Polaris

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Polaris:

Guys,

This is what I mean when I said that Ras was a bad poll for Corzine.

RAS Crosstabs Monday – R-D-I

Christie 80/11/49
Corzine 7/70/23
Daggett 8/14/20

RAS Crosstabs today

Cristie 81/14/58
Corzine 11/67/15
Daggett 5/11/18

You notice significant movement towards Christie in both GOP and Dem voters and at least a little (albeit MoE) towards Christie even with Dem voters.

-Polaris

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Polaris:

Ack late. Sorry. In my above post I meant to say that you see between the two polls significant movement to Christie in Indy voters and Dem voters and some (MOE) movement in GOP voters.

-Polaris

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