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NJ: Christie 47 Corzine 41 (PPP 10/31-11/1)


Public Policy Polling (D)
10/31-11/1/09; 994 likely voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Jersey

2009 Governor
Christie 47%, Corzine 41%, Daggett 11% (chart)

Is your second choice for Governor Chris Christie or Jon Corzine? (Asked only of Daggett voters)
Corzine 45%, Christie 36%

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chris Christie (R): 43 / 42
Jon Corzine (D): 34 / 58 (chart)
Chris Daggett (i): 24 / 35

Job approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 45 / 45 (chart)

 

Comments
RaleighNC:

Whoa! I guess if people were going to move to a candidate they did it this weekend! New Jersey is famous for late-deciders. I'm still a bit dubious, but encouraged.

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Stillow:

Wow, I don't know. I'd love it if this poll were true. First poll in a while showing the leader winning outside the MOE. 6 point lead seems astoishing. But PPP is a Dem pollster, what are they seeing here? The party ID doesn't seem that out of wack to me...and Questions 12 and 14 I find inresting too....

I cannot beleive a Dem pollster like PPP would put out a poll like this right before election day unless they thought it was really accurate.

Only 2 percent undecides...perahps the undecides have broken...and they broke to Christie in a big way.

I wish, but I am having ahard time beliving this one....somehting has to be wrong with the sample....

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Stillow:

This poll could indeed be good. 54 percent of those polled did vote obama, only 43 mccain. But this poll favors the GOP all around, even in congressional questioning.....

Hmmmm, maybe NJ'ites are tired of the crap finally they've been getting from Dems? Anything more than a razor thin victory for Christie would deifnately be a statement...and people everywhere would take notice....it appears the rumors of the GOP's death were greatly exaggerated.

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Polaris:

Stillow,

You will notice that this is a D+8 poll which I think will be the partisan split this time around. Jensen has noticed and commented on a strong enthusiasm gap between Dem and GOP (and GOP leaning indy) voters for a while now, and this poll is consistant with that.

-Polaris

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Stillow:

Ya I saw its D+8 which makes it even more amazing Christie would beopening this big a lead. Enthusiasm or not, this would be something for a big win like this in such a reliable blue state.

Also take note of Obama job approval at 45 percent in this poll where 54 percent of the respondents ovted for him....that's a 9 point loss.

Politics is wacky stuff. Gonna be a lot of towels needed on this site for all these Dems to wipe off the egg if Christie wins by this margin.

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Aaron_in_TX:

This poll's crosstabs are still a little fishy on a few items, but mostly reasonable. This poll probably accurately reflects the race as it stands. Looks like people are moving against Corzine.

There is a large enthusiasm gap - 45% among McCain voters, 32% among Obama voters.

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Polaris:

Stillow,

A nine point loss on the Obama vote vs approval number is not suprising and I have found that difference in many races and polls around the country.

Basically, a lot of people voted for Obama aren't liking what they voted for. At least that is my take.

-Polaris

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Polaris:

AATX,

Yeah, Jensen was making a big deal about that same enthusiasm gap. It's probably exaggerated in NJ because Corzine is such an awful governor, but this same sort of gap seems to be occuring pretty much everywhere.

-Polaris

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Gopherguy:

Stillow,

MOE applies to both numbers. So Christie could be up by as much as 12.2% or down by .2%.

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Polaris:

Gopher,

You are correct, but I think you'd have to agree that the reported Christie lead is at the very edge of that MoE which indicates something like a 90% liklihood that Christie does actually have a lead. This is far greater than the polls even a few days ago where the reported lead was well within the MoE and thus the race was statistically tied.

In short, this poll is claiming something new, i.e. the late deciders seem to be breaking heavily towards Christie (which is normal....late deciders do tend to break towards the challenger).

-Polaris

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LordMike:

Beware polls taken on halloween... Democrats go out trick or treating... republicans stay home.

Last year, Obama's worst numbers came on polls taken on halloween... beware!

Poor choice of PPP to poll on that night...

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Polaris:

LordMike,

See my other thread about Halloween polling. I agree it probably shouldn't be done but both Jensen and Scott Rasmussen believe that it can be done if you are careful. Both use random lists with callbacks rather than calling until the respondant number is filled to try to prevent the skewing of the demographic you allude to. BTW, in my experiences, generally Halloween polls tend to lean Dem (2008 was different I agree), but you're right that it's a bad day to poll in general.

-Polaris

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Vert Man:

No way Corzine has a six point lead and no way Christie does. PPP has had two or three polls this same night that appear to be way off. Who knows what will really happen. It's essentially tied if you ask me.

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Polaris:

Vertman,

Except that this morning the latest Quinn poll just confirmed the movement picked up by PPP. Quinn went in one week from Corzine+5 to Christie+2 which is consistant with the movement seen here.

In short,the late deciders really do seem to be crystalizing around Christie.

-Polaris

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